The Folly of “Upgrades/Downgrades”

• Posted by ToddSullivan
• on January 8th, 2010

Just the latest example..

Check out the following 1yr. chart for Simon (SPG)

Now note that this morning Cowen started coverage of it at an “outperform” rating.

Really? Up over 150% from its March lows and sporting a $22B market cap in the CRE sector and we expect this party to continue over the next year? Really?

Remember high school/college? When there was a big party everyone was going to, who had the most fun? The people who got there first before the cops showed up to break it up (or so I have heard ;) ). The stragglers never had a good time, always left wishing they had gotten there much earlier or did something else….

That would be my suggestion to those expecting the SPG party to continue over the next year. If you want CRE exposure, there are far cheaper names out there to choose from where the party is just getting started..

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