As we expected Japanese automakers are going to see significant production problems due to the earthquake. Both Honda ($HMC) and Totota ($TM) have already seen extended closings and we would look for both more of these and for parts shortages to exacerbate the issue.
This leave a huge opening for Ford ($F) and GM ($GM). Given the momentum we have al;ready seen from Ford over the past year and into Q1 2011, we look for them to capitalize on this in a major way.
AutoNation ($AN) CEO Mike Jackson (emphasis mine):
“We would like to extend our deepest sympathies to the victims of the earthquake in Japan,” said Mike Jackson, AutoNation’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Commenting on the earthquake’s impact on the auto industry, Mr. Jackson said,
“Based on current information from the manufacturers, we expect production disruptions will significantly impact product availability from Japanese auto manufacturers in the second and third quarters of 2011
. However, we believe that the auto retail market and underlying consumer demand will continue to recover throughout 2011. Our planning assumption for 2011 industry new unit sales remains 12.8 million units, and we believe that we will manage through these production shortfalls.”
While 52% of AutoNation’s total new unit sales in 2010 were produced by Japanese manufacturers, approximately two-thirds of those units are assembled in North America.
Mr. Jackson concluded, “The situation is still developing, and therefore at this time it is difficult to fully predict the impact of the production disruption on the industry and our business.”