Rail Traffic Continues to Hold

• Posted by ToddSullivan
• on May 19th, 2011

Total N.American rail traffic rose from 662k to 673k carloads last week. It has been bouncing around this 650k to 680l range for 9 weeks now. Virtually all of the gain came from coal shipments as other categories were essentially unchanged. YOY for week 19 shows a 9% increase in traffic and the four week moving average shows a similar increase.

For the carriers, the largest increases came form $CSX and $BNI with increases of 8k and 5k carloads respectively.

What does it mean??? If things are progressing healthy, we should see traffic bounce around here as we enter the summer months (if that weather EVER gets to the NE). Typically there is a summer slowdown so as long as traffic holds the range, we are in essence seeing more strength. We would expect to see a small general increase as we get into August (not much though) and then larger increases as we hit Sept. Note: Expect the large drop offs around the summer Holidays just like the rest of the year. What we do NOT want to see is a general decline out of the range. IF we see larger increase through summer, that tells us there is significant strengthening in the economy.

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