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Dow Chemical / Rohm Update & Court’s Response

Just got off the phone with “sources close to the situation”.

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Some note:

– Dow (DOW) will answer the suit by Rohm & Hass (ROH) tomorrow
– They will be looking for the chancellor to issue a “business resolution”.
– Dow is still committed to the transaction
– Are in “active” conversations with several bidders for the previously named “K-Dow” JV with Kuwait. “Several other parties have come to the table” in bidding for the businesses.
– Dividend. Company credit rating is taking priority.

I got the impression that should a “business solution” to the litigation be required, the dividend may be safe but, it an immediate deal consummation is ordered, it is not. Now it should be noted that while Delaware Chancery Court Judge William B. Chandler III set the first day for March 9th and scheduled a trial of about five days, he said in the letter that “I strongly encourage the parties to focus on a business solution to this dispute.”

“The court will promptly rule at the trial’s conclusion,” Chandler added.

On page 24 Chandler said:

One thing that sort of strikes me — not knowing as much about this case as either of you or your colleagues — it strikes me that, A, there is a fundamental business problem here, and it is always my view that business problems are better resolved by business people; and that to the extent that the Court is called upon to resolve a legal issue, the Court will do that, of course, and will do it as promptly as possible. This Court obviously tries to accommodate parties who come and ask for expedited proceedings or accelerated proceedings because of the business necessities that a particular legal question implicates.

So, with that said, and with the hope that even after we resolve this immediate problem of how to go forward and in what manner to go forward, with the hope and trust that you will carry back — and I am sure you will — that the view of the Court is that it would be even better if the parties continue to try to figure out a way to resolve this business problem amongst the business people.

Full Filing:
Chancery Transcript

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Court Filings Business & Legal court Dow Chemical

Anyone else take that to mean neither is going to get all of what they want? I have said it before, Rohm has the most to lose here, should this fail, they’ll not see $78 a share this decade, best they work with Dow.

Now, earnings are released tomorrow am and expect the news to be bad, just like the rest of the manufacturing world. Liveris & Co .will be pelted with questions on the merger, sale, dividend etc. Don’t expect concrete answers, just assurances which, in the current environment will not go very far to assuage investors.

This is one you’ll just have to wait out a few months

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, none

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The Digital Deminishment of FedEx and UPS?? $$

So, I read the following article today and it got me thinking. Now, I am not saying either are doomed just that technology may just sap much of the growth from them going forward.

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First the article:

Entrepreneur Frederick W. Smith identified a pressing business need: important documents had to reach their destinations within one or two days. He incorporated a company called Federal Express in June 1971 and began operations in 1973 from Memphis International Airport. On its first night, in April, FedEx shipped 186 packages to 25 U.S. cities.

But all was not well on the international front, and within months, several Arab states had embargoed oil exports to the United States. While this news could have been disastrous for a company that relied on petroleum-fueled transportation, Federal Express stayed alive and became profitable in July 1975, when oil prices finally leveled off.

Status today: 2008 seemed at first to be a deja-vu replay of the company’s nascent years, as soaring fuel prices hurt operating costs. But when prices retreated, FedEx faced a new whammy: The weakening economy has reduced demand for prompt shipping. Average package volume for daily ground shipping dropped 2% year-over-year for the quarter ended Nov. 30. Warning that FedEx faces “some of the worst economic conditions in the company’s 35-year operating history,” CEO Frederick Smith took a 20% pay cut for 2009 as part of a sweeping cost-cutting plan.

So, what am I talking about? Do you know what is one of the fastest growing segment of the shipping giant Amazon.com? Right now it is the Kindle, the digital book. Title are delivered digitally, no shipping. Those titles are coming at the expense of books. How many books? Consider Amazon (AMZN), Barnes & Noble (BKS) and Borders (BGP) sold nearly $6 billion of books online in 2007. Now, admittedly not all are shipped via the two carriers but most are.

To see the digital effect on “hard items” see DVD’s & iTunes. It won’t be long before the majority of overnight shipping for books and dvd’s from all of the above is replaced with “download now”.

Documents. Know a ton of lawyers. Many do Social Security Disability. The social security administration is now accepting digital delivery of the documentation for cases. Insurance companies are also accepting it for personal injury and workers compensation cases. These were previously shipped via FedEx (FDX) & UPS (UPS). Again, only my corner of the world but expand this by tens of millions of claims nationally each year and you get the picture.

There are other examples but I hope the point is getting made.

FedEx and UPS will always lead in the shipment of “things” (toys, good etc) but the shipment of information is rapidly being eliminated from their portfolio. It is a large part of it and with an economy dipping into a prolonged recession, the last thing either need is customers finding a cheaper and faster way to get large amounts of the items they now ship.

Again, this will not destroy either but it does become a bit of a permanent headwind for both.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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Monday’s Links

AutoNation, The Case Against Keynes, PreTaxes

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– Tells GM & Chrysler were to stick theirnew incentive requirements

From Mises

– So, not being able to do your taxes now makes you a lock for a cabinet position in the Obama administration?

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Dennis Gartman on Gold $$

Gartman is a slick trader and when it comes to commodities, there are few better to listen to.

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“Gold is becoming a back-up currency”

The pure gold play is Gold (GLD) and the double daily (UGL)

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long UGL

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IEA Oil Outlook $$

Analysis by Nobuo Tanaka of International Energy Agency. For the record I am long a large chuck of il through DXO (DXO). Other plays are US Oil Fund (USO) and the DB Oil Fund (DBO).

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With Israel saying that Iran nor having a nuke trumps the health of the global economy, the geo-political risk of oil is at a level not even close to being realized by the current market price of it. A single act could cause a spike we have not sen in a long time.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DXO, none

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