Supply, supply, supply.supply……I’ve been saying this for two years now. The “crash” many have predicted for so long won’t come with supply <6mos. Builders are also not building homes on spec (build a full development in hopes of selling the homes) as they did in the past so one has to have serious doubts that it ever gets there. Current inventory is at 3.4mos, while up YOY from 2.7mos, it is actually down from January (3.5mos).
Add to that the Houston economy just is not as reliant on oil as it was 20-30 years ago. It just isn’t. It is still adding net jobs despite oil and gas layoffs and the population is still growing. So, what to expect? Continued unimpressive growth here and there with the occasional down month. Remember, all these comps are coming off record setting years in 2014 and 2015, making the fact we are still growing even a little all the more impressive. Should oil reverse back into the $50’s or higher……off we go again…
The Report:
MLS Report for February 2016THE HOUSTON HOUSING MARKET HOLDS STEADY IN FEBRUARYHOUSTON — (March 9, 2016) — The Houston real estate market managed to resist most of the effects of the energy downturn in February, with home sales up over two percent compared to the same month last year. Single-family homes priced between $150,000 and $500,000 recorded positive sales volume while the luxury home segment experienced the biggest decline.
According to the latest monthly report compiled by the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), February single-family home sales rose 2.2 percent versus February 2015, with a total of 4,602 sales compared to 4,505 a year earlier. New listings helped inventory grow from a 2.7-months supply to 3.4 months.
“So far in 2016, the Houston housing market has remained healthy despite the ongoing strains facing the energy industry,” said HAR Chairman Mario Arriaga with First Group. “Sales are still down in the luxury home market, but, just as we saw in January, mid-range housing performed well and inventory levels grew. There was also a lot of activity among rental properties.”
Last week, the Greater Houston Partnership (GHP) reported revised Texas Workforce Commission data showing that the Houston metropolitan area gained 15,200 jobs in 2015, not the 23,200 jobs previously estimated. The GHP report also stated that nearly 51,000 jobs were lost in January, a 1.7 percent decline and slightly above what is considered average for that time of year.
The single-family home average price squeezed out a fractional 0.5 percent year-over-year increase, reaching $260,872, the highest figure ever for a February. The median price—the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less—was unchanged at $200,000.
February sales of all property types in Houston totaled 5,548, statistically flat compared to the same month last year. Total dollar volume for properties sold in February rose 1.2 percent to $1.4 billion.
February Monthly Market ComparisonHouston’s monthly housing market measurements were largely positive in February compared to those from a year earlier. On a year-over-year basis, single-family homes sales, average price, total dollar volume and inventory levels rose while median sales price was flat.
Month-end pending sales for single-family homes totaled 6,801. That is up 1.3 percent compared to last year. Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, at the end of February rose 17.6 percent from February 2015 to 32,914.
An increase in new listings in February gave single-family homes inventory a boost, with levels climbing from a 2.7-months supply to 3.4 months. For perspective, the national supply of homes reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) currently stands at 4.0 months.
CATEGORIES FEBRUARY 2015 FEBRUARY 2016 CHANGE Total property sales 5,538 5,548 0.2% Total dollar volume $1,364,211,035 $1,380,586,269 1.2% Total active listings 27,990 32,914 17.6% Single-family home sales 4,505 4,602 2.2% Single-family average sales price $259,676 $260,872 0.5% Single-family median sales price $200,000 $200,000 0.0% Single-family months inventory* 2.7 3.4 30.5% Single-family pending sales** 6,717 6,801 1.3%