“Davidson” submits:
Hurricane Ida makes this week’s data messy!
- US Crude Production fell to 10mil BBL/Day with ~1.4mil BBL/Day forced shut-ins, US Crude Inv falls 1.5mil BBL as Crude imports rose slightly by 0.2mil BBL/Day
- US Gasoline Inv fall 7.2mil BBL, while Refinery Input falls ~1.7mil BBL/Day on Ida shut-ins, US Consumption falls on stalled deliveries due to Ida- (Hmm…falling gasoline inv and falling US consumption??)
- Gradually moving higher is Jet Fuel consumption to ~94% of the trend since 2012
US Crude and Gasoline Inventories are at/near historic low trends with hurricane Ida disruptions. The 14 oil rig count drop in a recent Baker Hughes Rig Count report was prior to Ida. That gasoline inventories collapsed 7mil BBL+ shows that US consumption continued even without some deliveries possible with key pipelines shut-in. How much any of the shifts in this report should be attributed to Ida vs consumption wil be clearer as future reports roll in. It appears some deliveries of gasoline occurred, were not replaced with refinery runs which averaged a week of ~1.7mil BBL/Day lower or ~12mil BBL Refined Product lower.
A key observation is that crude and gasoline inventories will require replenishment. Also, the rise of jet fuel use does not support a COVID impact discussed at present as the cause of lower air traffic which has a seasonal dip this time every year.
Higher $WTI has typically been the cure for low crude inventories!!
