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"Fast Money" for Monday

Monday’s Picks…

None. It was a “Review” show. Records and winning percentages to date below

Friday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommended getting long Yahoo (YHOO) Open $26.27 Close $26.84 and Palm (PALM). Open $16.40 Close $16.27

Guy Adami liked KB Home (KBH). Open $24.71 close $25.06

Karen Finerman preferred Seacor Holdings (CKH). Open $93.83 Close $95.10

Pete Najarian said Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT) is a buy. Open $38.60 Close $39.24

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 28-18 = 60%
Eric Bolling= 10-11 = 48%
John Najarian= 13-3 = 81%
Jeff Macke= 33-24 = 57%
Pete Najarian= 21-17 = 55%
Tim Seymore= 3-2 = 60%
Karen Finerman= 13-6 = 68%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 2-0 = 100%

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RED SOX: AL EAST CHAMPIONS

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This Weeks Notable Dividend Hikes

National Home Health (NHHC)= 133%

Diamond Foods (DMND)= 50%

National Semiconductor (NSM)= 50%

Curtis Wright (CW)= 33%

Lockheed Martin (LMT)= 20%

Sanderson Farms (SAFM)= 16%

Campbell Soup (CPB)= 10%

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This Week’s Insider Buys

Smithfield Foods (SFD)= $9,429,000

American Financial Group (AFG)= $4,211,000

Credit Acceptance (CACC)= $1,414,000

Inventure Group (SNAK)= $1,040,000

Valance Technology (VLNC)= $1,019,000

Mercer International (MERC)= $890,000

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)= $882,000

Pep Boys (PBY)= $826,000

Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF)= $636,000

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The Week’s Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here are this weeks tops stories. If you are a value investor and do not read this site daily, you are cheating yourself…

5. Aventine Renewable Energy’s hope: The 2008 Presidential Election

(via thestockmasters.com)

Ethanol investors know the Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc. (Public, NYSE:AVR) sad story well. The IPO in 2006 showed amazing potential, but then shares of AVR fell to the $30’s, then $20’s, and today they barely register above $10. So is ethanol just a fad fuel, yesterday’s news, and a lost investing opportunity?

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Apple’s Intentional iPhone Destruction: Illegal

Apple’s (APPL) quest to keep total control over its iPhone seems to have caused it to break the law.

Ever heard of the Magnuson-Moss Federal Warranty Act? It would seem those at Apple’s HQ have not either but when they put out an iPhone update this week that disabled hacked iPhones, they broke this law.

The site Phone News.com details how Apple did do. The act says that Apple cannot void a warranty for a product with third-party enhancements or modifications to their product. The only exception to this rule is if Apple can determine that the modification or enhancement is responsible damaging the product in question. Since it was Apple that intentionally caused the damage to the iPhone, the phones are still technically still covered under the warranty. Apple has a problem because they are refusing to honor the warranty on the hacked phones.

Once ownership of the phones was transferred from Apple to the buyer at purchase, the new owners have the right to do whatever they want with the phone. Kind of like buying a car and customizing it. Now, if your customization of the car (phone) causes it not to work, the auto maker (or Apple) need not honor the warranty, but, and this is a key point, the car maker (or Apple)cannot come out and take the transmission out of the car because they do not like the modifications you made. This is essentially what Apple did. They said “if you change the phone, we will break it on you”. Illegal.

If nothing else this come as another PR pothole for Apple who has gone from wearing the lovable underdog label to corporate bully in the course of a few weeks. First there was the unexpected (not to ValuePlays readers) $200 price drop on the phone less than 3 months after it’s release that had those who waited in lines for two days to get the initial phones outraged. Apple attempted to sooth them by offering them a $100 rebate which still leaves them $100 short but it was better than nothing.

The iPhone hype has subsided and sales are not as hot as Apple would like them. they are running short of their 10 million unit by the end of 2008 goal and negative press like this will not encourage those folks on the fence to make the plunge and pony up the $399 necessary to get one now.

Apple could miss a quarterly earnings expectation and still keep the aura around itself. The stock would take a hit but a good quarter following it would repair that. Expectations are way too high currently for the company and its products and it would seem Apple may be letting that guide its decision making process. If they alienate those who are buying it’s products with moves like this that make them feel like the enemy, that damage will take much longer to repair.

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Friday’s 52 Week Low’s

Ethanol makers still going lower, someone will start snapping them up soon.

SMRT Stein Mart Inc 7.66
SCSS Select Comfort Corp 13.95
RUTH Ruths Chris Steak Hse Inc 14.31
RT Ruby Tuesday, Inc. (G … 18.37
PTRY Pantry Inc 25.69
USBE US Bioenergy Corp 7.65
UFPI Universal Forest Products 29.65
SPF Standard Pacific Corp 5.49
MGPI Mgp Ingredients Inc 10.24
MED Medifast Inc 5.58
MAXY Maxygen Inc
HMX Hartmarx Corporation 4.94
HHS Harte-Hanks Communica … 19.83
GMTN Gander Mountain Co 5.45
LZB La-Z-Boy Incorporated 7.50
DSW Dsw Inc 25.55
DEIX Directed Electronics Inc 3.97
CRC Chromcraft Revington, Inc 4.67

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Friday’s Links

9/25, Housing, Natural Gas, Cheap Music Downloads

– I did not know Sept. 25th was such a notable day.

– According to this. As goes housing, so goes the economy. I hope it is wrong.

– Why would you build a plant in the US with these Natural gas prices.

– Here is how Amazon (AMZN) is selling songs for your iPod cheaper than Apple (APPL)

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Greenspan the Odds Maker

I Greenspan jockeying for a job on Vegas?

Before the summer began he made waves with the first understandable statement of his career. “The US has a greater than 30% chance of a recession this year”. Whoa, it is actually a coherent blathering from the former chief. Since that prediction seems to be wrong, Greeenie decided to follow it up yesterday.

“The danger of recession has obviously risen but in my judgment … is still less than 50/50. It’s less optimistic than one would like,” Greenspan told BBC Radio 4. So, I guess that means we are about 30% to 45% chance? If only he were this clear when he was in office.

Oh yea the reason for the interview? He was peddling his new book overseas. Funny how the almighty quest for a fast buck clears ones thought process.

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Bank of America Piles on Starbucks

Just in case Starbucks thought the bashing was finally over…

Banc of America (BAC) downgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to Sell from Neutral, and lowered their target to $23 from $27, as they see downside risk to estimates due to slower growth. The firm is concerned that expectations for a near-term recovery are too high.

The analyst, Mr. Barrish wrote, “Although we believe that the company controls a very strong brand and can continue to grow, we believe the pace of growth will be slower [with international business still too small to make significant contribution to operating profits, and could be several years away from such a contribution], and that expectations are too high for a short-term recovery.”

He added, “We also believe that store operations have ‘slipped’ and longer lines, more complexity and less-than-stellar-looking assets could be causing a modest decrease in sales in this challenging consumer environment.”

I guess the first question isn’t “is he right” but “where have you been”? I mean, none of this stuff is an enlightened opinion and those of you who read ValuePlays have been seeing the same sentiment since Fenruary when shares were sitting at $35 each. Shares were down some 2% yesterday and there isn’t really anything to stop the fall on the horizon. If anything, the upcoming earnings release may do more harm than good as it is looking more apparent everyday that meeting their number is becoming less and less likely. What took the analyst almost 10 months to see what the rest of us already new? Also, the fact that shares dropped so much despite all this shows how much “hope” is still baked into the current price.

Starbucks may give us a valueplay soon enough. But shares will fall further first..

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ADM and ConocoPhillips In Pact

Well that did not take long. In the morning I pondered what was up with ADM (ADM) and their recent restructuring along the lines of an energy company and only a few hours later get an answer.

Archer Daniels Midland and CononcoPhillips (COP) announced that they agreed to collaborate on the development of renewable transportation fuels from biomass, creating a partnership between the biggest U.S. ethanol producer and one of the biggest oil refiners. The collaboration will research and seek to commercialize two components of a next-generation biofuel production process:

* The conversion of biomass from crops, wood or switchgrass into biocrude, a non-fossil substance that can be processed into fuel; and
* The refining of biocrude to produce transportation fuel.

ADM will provide “biomass,” or organic material left over from crops, wood or switchgrass and ConocoPhillips will convert the materials into “biocrude” fuel for transportation.

“ConocoPhillips believes that the development of next-generation biofuels is a critical step in the diversification of our nation’s energy sources,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer, ConocoPhillips. “We are hopeful that this collaboration will provide innovative technology toward the large-scale production of biofuels that can be moved efficiently and affordably through existing infrastructure.”

Patricia Woertz, chairman and CEO of ADM, added, “As we advance our global bioenergy interests, this alliance with ConocoPhillips represents an important next step. Innovative collaboration like this will identify and bring to market feasible, economic and sustainable next-generation biofuels.”

This is very interesting. There has been a ton of talk out there about “cellulostic ethanol” and while ADM is developing that technology, what they seem to be doing here is creating “cellulostic crude”. The ramifications of the agreement between the two are far reaching. Big Oil has thus far rejected the biofuel industry and this agreement serves as that needed recognition. It also diversifies ADM’s earnings profile away from ethanol and farther into the biodiesel and now biocrude areas that are growing at staggering rates.

Consider that just three years ago, only 25 million gallons of biodiesel were produced in the US. That number will top 250 million gallon this year and it is expected to double next year. Biodiesel burns cleaner and is 30% MORE mileage friendly than it’s pure petroleum brethren.

What ADM and Conoco are doing is jumping into a thus far untouched market head first to dominate it. The fact they are even setting up the refining of the finished product says it is close to a reality.

Sound good shareholders? Me too.

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Sherwin Williams: Persistant Rumors

More rumors, true?

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) shares have been trading higher on buyout rumors. The paintmaker and retailer, which has a market cap of $8.5 billion and long-term debt of $292 million, has been the subject of rumors for the better part of a month now. The coatings industry is undergoing rapid consolidation the past 6 months and Sherwin, with its name recognition and pristine financials would be a delicious target for someone. Companies like Dow Chemical (DOW) have publicly announced their intentions to grow their coatings business by billion dollar increments and that can only be done through acquisitions. The recent Akzo Nobel buyout of ICI chemical served to further heat up the rumor mill. Dow had an interest in ICI but not at the price Nobel paid. Now that ICI is gone, could a bid for Sherwin be coming?

However, Sherwin may not be a takeout candidate, but instead an acquirer,based on recent actions. The company recently bought Spokane, Wash.-based Columbia Paint & Coatings Co. after completing the purchase of Philadelphia based MA Bruder & Sons. The purchases followed Sherwin-Williams’ CEO Christopher M. Connor’s comments earlier in the year that the company would continue to expand in the “do-it-yourself” market through acquisitions.

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES

Fresenius Medical FMS Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
EchoStar DISH Oppenheimer Neutral » Buy
SAVVIS Comm SVVS Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Oriental Fincl Grp OFG Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
Rightnow Tech RNOW RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
SiRF Technology SIRF Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
KKR Financial KFN Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Wal-Mart WMT Rochdale Securities Hold » Buy
Westell Tech WSTL Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Kindred Healthcare KND Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Prudential Plc PUK Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Magna MGA CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform

DOWNGRADES

Signature Bank SBNY Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
PetroChina PTR Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Healthways HWAY Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Statoil ASA STO Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Alesco AFN Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Fluor FLR Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Starbucks SBUX Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
ResMed RMD UBS Buy » Neutral
Gamestop GME UBS Buy » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Friday

Friday’s Picks

Jeff Macke recommended getting long Yahoo (YHOO) Open $26.27 and Palm (PALM). Open $16.40

Guy Adami liked KB Home (KBH). Open $24.71

Karen Finerman preferred Seacor Holdings (CKH). Open $93.83

Pete Najarian said Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT) is a buy. Open $38.60

Thursday’s Results

Jeff Macke said sell Bear Stearns (BSC). Open $123 Close $121.15

Guy Adami liked NYSE Euronext (NYX). Open $78.60 Close $79.78

Karen Finerman thought BEA Systems (BEAS) is a buy. Open $13.33 Close $13.65

Pete Najarian preferred Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS). Open $15.10 Close $15.35

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 27-18 = 60%
Eric Bolling= 10-11 = 48%
John Najarian= 13-3 = 81%
Jeff Macke= 32-23 = 58%
Pete Najarian= 20-17 = 54%
Tim Seymore= 3-2 = 60%
Karen Finerman= 12-6 = 67%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 2-0 = 100%

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Today’s 52 Week Lows

RUTH Ruths Chris Steak Hse Inc 14.60
PTRY Pantry Inc 27.20
MGPI Mgp Ingredients Inc 11.18
LENB Lennar Corp 20.72
CYH Community Health Sys … 30.71
CRFT Craftmade Internation … 12.40
CMRG Casual Male Retail Gr … 9.10
CHIC Charlotte Russe Hldg Inc 14.79
HB Hillenbrand Industrie … 54.52
GSAT Globalstar Inc 7.48
GOT Gottschalks Inc 4.21
GMTN Gander Mountain Co 5.70
BLG Building Matls Hldg Corp 10.87
ARP American Reprographics Co 18.98