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Monday’s 52 Week Lows

Here is the list, again assume homebuilders…

WOS Wolseley Plc 19.13
WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc 24.45
UNFI United Natural Foods Inc 24.82
TUES Tuesday Morning Corp 9.87
TLB The Talbots, Inc 18.54
THRD TF Financial Corp 25.82
RT Ruby Tuesday, Inc. 20.82
QSII Quality Systems Inc 33.89
PSS Collective Brands Inc 21.24
PPS Post Properties, Inc 37.20
POOL Pool Corporation 29.85
OPLK Oplink Communications Inc 12.59
ODSY Odyssey Healthcare Inc 9.41
ODP Office Depot, Inc 18.84
OCR Omnicare, Inc 30.07
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc 48.01
INSP Infospace Inc 12.92
IMN Imation Corp 27.10
FFDF FFD Financial Corporation 14.00
FBN Furniture Brands Inte 10.56
DDS Dillard Department St … 19.91
CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc 11.15
BC Brunswick Corporation 22.57
AVR Aventine Renewable Energy 12.87

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OPEC Needs an Economics Refresher

The head of OPEC says that the oil supply is just fine. It is refining that is the problem. That would put the reason for higher oil prices squarely on the doorstep of the oil companies like Exxon (XOM), BP (BP), Chevron (CVX) and others. Right? Uh no..

Let’s just sit back and think about it. Let’s say what they claim is true and that the supply of oil is sufficient for the current demand. Why would oil companies drive up the price they have to pay for their product? What does the refining capacity of oil have to do with the price of a barrel of crude?

Now, if we are talking about the finished products like gasoline and heating oil, then I would agree that those prices are artificially high because we do not have adequate refining capacity. If anything, the lack of capacity should lead to a log jam effect of crude oil which, according to the laws of supply and demand, would cause the price of oil to drop. The jam would be caused by increasing demand and production being forced through the same refining funnel, the oil would have to back up into the cup of the funnel as it waited to be refined. If what the OPEC head said was true, this would undoubtedly happen, yet, the oil price just keeps marching higher and right now we have no additional wars or natural disasters on anyone minds. Hmmm.

It is kind of like egg producers saying that the price of eggs are high because not enough diner cooks make scrambled eggs it, no it is high because the demand is straining supply.

Just like oil… Econ 100..

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Monday’s Notable Links

– One of the all-time greatest investors talks investing and “sub-prime” (video)

– A cheap way to get out of your cell phone contract

– You know what? as much as I like their product, this makes sense

– What stocks does Buffett own that are buying back shares?

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What Was Schultz Thinking?

Just when I think Starbucks (SBUX) could not be any further off the mark than they are now, they prove me wrong.. sorry shareholders (again).

In Mexico, CEO Howard Schultz said “At the very top of the market where Starbucks plays, I do not believe that others will have access to the quality of coffee that we are buying because we have secured those sources,” Schultz said.

What Schultz did not say was that Starbucks’ size of 13,000 thousand plus locations prevent them from sourcing their beans from smaller, artisan growers capable of growing the highest quality coffee beans. Instead, they require a “best of the biggest” approach, where they deal solely with growers who can supply coffee beans in large enough quantities to meet their huge distribution needs.

Let’s put that obvious one aside. Let’s deal with the “super premium” comment. Has anyone ever seen an ad where McDonald’s (MCD) or Dunkin Donuts claimed “super premium”? Me either. What they do offer is “very good coffee and very good prices”. They call it “gourmet” but that could just mean “doesn’t suck” and based on the money pouring into both companies from coffee sales, any alleged shortage is not affecting them. Let’s assume they are buying the same beans (I will play along Howard). If you are a coffee grower and are approached by Starbucks and McDonalds, which dwarfs Starbucks in size, and both want to buy your beans, are you going to put all your eggs in just one basket? If you are, would it be the smaller guy?

Schultz, it seems, has fired a shot over the bow of, well, Starbucks since only they seem to think they require all the “super premium” beans. There may be a slew of small European cafe’s affected by this alleged shortage, but McDonald’s and Dunkin Donuts will not be. Also, whether Schultz or anyone else at Starbucks wants to admit it and clearly they do not, this IS their competition and it IS where their former customers are getting their coffee now.

“Starbucks is not an advertiser. If other companies are going to advertise and promote specialty coffee, Starbucks is going to benefit in the long term,” Schultz continued. Well, maybe he ought to be because they clearly are not in the short term. He needs his company’s products to be defined by something other than their high price which his “competition” has managed to do to them. Starbucks allowed their brand to become equatable to Mcdonalds (MCD) and Dunkin Donuts, now they need to spend money to change that or the comparisons will not end and they cannot compete on value with either of them. Just when I think things may begin to change…. nope

I can’t wait for the next one.

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What Is Verizon Up To?

Rumors abounded before the iPhone launch that Verizon (VZ) was developing an “iPhone killer” and was the reason they turned down Apple’s (AAPL) overtures. Now, there are more rumors that the possibly upcoming GPhone from Google (GOOG) was shopped to Verizon and it also turned it down.

It all begs the question? What does Verizon have in the wings? Based on it’s history, any product from Google is going to be incredibly affordable (unlike the iPhone) and be easily adaptable to existing formats and outside programmers. Now, if that is true and they are going to several providers to shop it (again based on rumors) one must think that Verizon feels it has something very special in the works to turn down both phones.

Now that Apple finally got with the program and made the iPhone somewhat more affordable, sales will pick up. AT&T (T) stands to be the big winner as they will feel little of the pain of the price cut. Verizon needs to have an answer and will be under even more pressure if a Google phone does come to fruition. Perhaps they are working on it with Blackberry maker Research In Motion (RIMM)?

Personally, I love my Blackberry and have no interest in a $400 iPhone. I would be shocked if a GPhone was not priced at a fraction of that price and I would be tempted to take a gander at it if for no other reason I am sure it would be a great product, like everything else Google does. This is not to say the iPhone is not a great product, it is just way too much money.

Verizon needs to have a answer to this and soon or they risk falling behind in a big way in the smart phone race which, is the future of our telephonic communications.

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Monday’s Upgrades / Downgrades

UPGRADES

Harley-Davidson HOG Soleil Sell » Buy
RADVision RVSN Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Northwest Airlines NWA Calyon Securities Add » Buy
U.S. Steel X Citigroup Hold » Buy
Fifth Third FITB Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
Stone Energy SGY Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Tempur-Pedic TPX CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Occidental Petro OXY Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES

American Software AMSWA Davenport Buy » Neutral
Cascade CAE DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
Techne TECH Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
US Airways LCC Calyon Securities Buy » Add
Continental Air CAL Calyon Securities Buy » Add
Alaska Air ALK Calyon Securities Buy » Add CMC Citigroup Hold » Buy

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"Fast Money" for Monday

MONDAY’S PICKS

Jeff Macke said The New York Times (NYT) is a raging sell. OPEN $21.26

For the 2nd day in a row, Guy Adami recommended the Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG). OPEN $60.67

Pete Najarian liked Oilsands Quest (BQI). OPEN $4.92

FRIDAY’S RESULTS

Guy Adami told the panel to short The Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG). Open $59.67 CLOSE $60.67 GAIN $1.00

Karen Finerman liked Under Armour (UA). open $63.38 CLOSE $63.85 GAIN $.47

Pete Najarian preferred Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). Open $67.27 CLOSE $65.26 LOSS $2.01

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks)

Guy Adami= 21-13 Gain $40.24
Eric Bolling= 10-11 Loss $14.01
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Jeff Macke= 22-19 Gain $4.05
Pete Najarian= 14-11 Gain $23.50
Tim Seymore= 3-2 Loss $.49
Karen Finerman= 5-3 Gain $2.06
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 2-0 Gain $1.61
Constance Hunter= 1-0 Gain $1.84

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Dow Expects India Business To Grow 50% Annually

I cannot think of anything to date that the Andrew Liveras lead Dow Chemical (DOW) has alluded to that has not happened. No reason to start doubting now.

“We expect our business in India to touch $1 billion by 2010 from the present $300 million. Dow looks at the proposed chemical hubs as an opportunity to scale up its manufacturing capabilities in the country,” Peter G Halloran, director-supply chain, Mumbai service center, Dow Chemical International, said last week. DOW also expects to see 50% of its R&D initiatives coming from India in the next 3-4 years, according to Halloran.

Dow Chemical (DOW), is betting big on the proposed Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemicals Investment Regions (PCPIR) in the country to scale up its manufacturing capabilities in line with upcoming business opportunities much like they are doing in China, Russia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Halloran said DOW was in talks with various government agencies to set up manufacturing facilities here.

India’s Commerce Minister Kamal Nath recently said that since DOW did not have a direct link to the Bhopal gas tragedy (it bought Union Carbide several years after the tragedy), its investments in India would not be adversely affected.

DOW is making huge bets overseas where inputs will be cheap for both raw materials and skilled labor. If you go back and review most of their releases, these project are scheduled to all come online around 2010. What about between now and then? DOW is becoming a cash producing machine and these new projects are being paid for with produced funds, not cash pout of pocket and that point cannot be emphasized enough. It means DOW can keep these projects coming, adding to earnings without any balance sheet weakening, risk to it’s near 4% (and growing) dividend or reduction in it’s stock repurchase plans. All these are very good things for investors.

The next big event, (aside from any additional almost weekly expansion plans) will be the upcoming “white paper” this fall. In it they will detail the expected results from Liveras’s strategy. I think shares are treading water currently because Wall St. is having trouble determining the value of all the recent joint ventures DOW has entered into. Without a clear understanding of their impact to earnings, people are not able to value DOW.

Personally I think the value of these in a year will be multiples of what they now the paper, when release will illustrate this. What it will also show is DOW is becoming less dependent on the US market and even more of a worldwide player is areas other that cyclical chemicals that their fortunes have been predominately tied to until as recently as last year.

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This Week’s Notable Dividend Hikes

Thin Week for hikes….

PSB Holdings (PSBH)= 16%

CBS Corp (CBS) = 13.6%

Verizon (VZE)= 6%

Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ)= 4%

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Book Review: The "Little Book" of Value Investing

If you want to get started in value investing but are not sure what it is all about, here is the best book I have read to date on the subject.

CLICK LINK TO BUY BOOK

I honestly feel this book should be read by all those who are interested in value investing but are not sure where to begin to find out about it. It is not full of complicated discounted future cash flow formulas that will have most readers eyes glossing over in confusion. What it does have is a straight forward explanation of the theory of value investing. The author, Tweedy & Browne’s Christopher Browne illustrates how we try to buy everything we buy in life “on sale” (groceries, auto’s, clothing etc..) yet for some reason have the irresistible urge to buy stock in companies when they are priced most expensively. The book is an excellent primer on altering that thought process…

Advanced value investing readers may find the book a little basic but I enjoyed it because it is always good to remind yourself of the basics as without them the details are meaningless…

The best part of the book? Any reader can easily finish it in a weekend and be investing on Monday…

On a side note. I have been inundated with book review requests lately and will get to all of them as soon as I can. Thank you in adavnace for you patience..

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This Week’s Insider Buys

“There is only one reason insider buy shares, they think the stock price is going up” Peter Lynch. Here are the top 5

Mohawk Industries (MWK) $26,190,000

Centerline Holdings (CHC) $2,015,000

Compuware (CPWR) $1,553,000

Stericycle (SRCL) $1,487,000

Accuray (ARAY) $1,382,000

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Harley Davidson: "Below MSRP" Was A Bad Harbinger

“Coming off a negative U.S. retail sales trend in the
first six months of the year, we ran an effective promotion in July that
increased retail sales and reduced inventories of 2007 model motorcycles.
However, our U.S. dealers’ retail sales have fallen sharply during August.” With that, shares of Harley Davidson (HOG) drop 10% today to below $50 a shares, 23% down this year and 28% below their high last year.

HOG now expects a modest decline in revenue for 2007. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the full year 2007 are expected to be down 4 to 6 percent, in the range of $3.69 – $3.77, compared to 2006 EPS of $3.93.

Looking ahead to 2008, they anticipate the U.S. retail motorcycle environment will continue to be challenging. It expects moderate revenue growth, lower operating margins and EPS growth of between 4 and 7 percent. They had previously provided guidance for 2009 as well, but will not be providing that guidance at this time.

I mid August in a post I related a conversation I had with a salesperson at a mega dealership Laconia , NH that essentially foreshadowed the above statement. I finished the post by saying “Earlier this year when shares were at $70 I recommended waiting until they reached the mid $50’s to buy. Based on my weekend visit, they may go lower still. This is a great company that makes a one of a kind product, but, people are not buying it now and that will hurt. I think we may see share prices in the $40’s before the year is out.”

We are at the $49 level today (Friday) and I honestly see no reason to jump at shares now. Much like Starbucks (SBUX), I would like to think HOG management was aware of this trend a while ago and hoped it would not come to fruition, all evidence to the contrary. That being said, there very well may be another shoe to drop in the future.

So, what should we do? Just sit back and wait. If you can get shares of this company in the low 40’s, you have a real steal. Be patient and it just may get there. I will go on record and say that anything around $45 or lower will be an no brainer buy.

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Friday’s 52 Week Lows

Add almost every homebuilder to this list today…

WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc 25.03
URGI United Retail Group Inc 7.86
UNFI United Natural Foods Inc 25.08
TLB The Talbots, Inc 19.41
TCMI Triple Crown Media Inc 6.12
SCVL Shoe Carnival Inc 16.60
RYL The Ryland Group, Inc 26.10
RVI Retail Ventures Inc 10.70
PGR The Progressive Corpo 19.66
OXM Oxford Industries, Inc 34.05
OPMR Optimal Group Inc 5.35
ODP Office Depot, Inc 19.84
MGPI Mgp Ingredients Inc 13.76
LM Legg Mason, Inc 81.53
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc 49.15
CC Circuit City Stores, 9.80
CBOU Caribou Coffee Inc 6.07
BX Blackstone Group L P 21.37
BRN Barnwell Industries, Inc 16.63
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply Inc 10.82
BC Brunswick Corporation 23.16
BBW Build A Bear Workshop 15.87

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Friday’s Links To Visit

check them out

– Why wouldn’t I listen to the guy who beat the market 15 straight years?

– Yes, they do

– Another investing icon I cannot argue with on this one

– Here are 5 books every teenager should read to be wealthy when they are old.

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Citi Picking Up Mortgage Mess Pieces

First Bank of America (BAC) took a stake in Countrywide (CFC) and now Ameriquest Mortgage Co., once the “Proud Sponsor of the American Dream,” is closing and Citigroup (C) said Friday that it would buy the remnants of the business from ACC Capital Holdings in Orange.

Ameriquest shuttered its 229 retail offices months ago and as recently as 2005, Ameriquest and its sister company, Argent Mortgage, were together the No. 1 sub-prime mortgage lender in the world.

New York-based Citigroup, the nation’s largest bank, obtained an option in February to buy Ameriquest’s loan-servicing arm, which handles collections on $45 billion in loans and distributions of the principal and interest payments to investors in mortgage bonds. It also obtained an option to buy Argent, a lender that makes loans through independent brokers rather than directly to consumers.

Ameriquest’s end mirrors the fortunes of a slew of independent sub-prime lenders that have closed or sold themselves off amid a rising rate of loan defaults. Unlike banks or S&L’s, which have deposits to lend and can hold many loans for investment, the pure sub-prime firms relied on Wall Street to finance their operations and buy their loans, services that are no longer available in the sub-prime market currently.

Citigroup described the deal as a way to acquire “operational and pricing efficiencies” in a line of business that is currently “undergoing significant change.” The terms of the deal weren’t disclosed but Citigroup and Arnall reportedly had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Argent’s operations in February to beef up its business. Like other sub-prime lenders, Argent has shrunk in volume because investors will no longer buy sub-prime loans or the securities backed by them.

Although the wholesale lending business in sub-prime currently at a standstill, the purchase of what remains of Argent will position Citigroup to reenter the market when it revives, Citigroup spokeswoman Danielle Romero-Apsilos said. “We will restart the origination business slowly, under new management and a new brand, and do everything in accordance with federal, state and local law,” she said.

Last month I posted, “The past week has seen a slew of mortgage lender close the door or dramatically scale back operations due to tightening credit markets. So, who will benefit? Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) look to be the best bets.”

The big banks are buying up cheap assets that once mortgage markets settle, and yes the eventually will, will make them tons of money and solidify their dominance in the mortgage industry.