Legg Mason’s Bill filed his latest letter with the SEC Friday. Some notables from it.
“The late 1980s saw a merger boom similar to what we have experienced the past few years and a housing boom as well. In 1989, though, the merger boom came to a halt with the failure of the buyout of United Airlines to be completed. The buyout boom had been fueled by financial innovation. Then it was so-called junk bonds, which had been purchased by many savings and loans in an attempt to earn higher returns. Now it is subprime loans repackaged into structured financial products. The Federal Reserve Board (“Fed”)D had been tightening credit to guard against rising inflation, which began to impact housing. By 1990, housing was in freefall, the savings and loans were going bankrupt (as the mortgage companies did in 2007), financial stocks were collapsing, oil prices were soaring in 1990 due to a war in the Middle East, the economy tipped over into recession, and the government had to create the Resolution Trust Corporation to stop the hemorrhaging in the real estate finance markets. Eerily similar to today, the situation began to stabilize when Citibank (C) got financing from investors from the Middle East.”
On current situation:
“The monetary and fiscal authorities have now begun to move with alacrity, with the Fed cutting the funds rateF to 3% (with likely more to come in my opinion), and the administration and Congress coming up with a fiscal stimulus package estimated at around $150 billion dollars.
Will it be successful? I believe, yes. More precisely, if these measures aren’t enough to free up credit and stimulate spending sufficient to set the economy on a growth path, then I believe additional measures will be taken until that is accomplished. The important point is that the monetary and fiscal policymakers are focused and engaged, and I believe they will do what is necessary to stabilize the markets and restore confidence. This does not mean that the recovery will be swift, or seamless, or without additional trauma. But there will be a recovery in my opinion, and I think the market abounds with good value. Those values may get even better if the markets get more gloomy, but they are good enough now for us to be fully invested.
I think the market is in for a period of what the Greeks refer to as enantiodromia, the tendency of things to swing to the other side. This is not a forecast, but rather a reflection on valuation. “
“Even more compelling are financials, where you can get dividend yields about double that of Treasuries, which only adds to their allure, with them trading at price-to-book value ratios last seen at the last big bottom in financials.
I think enantiodromia has already begun. What took us into this malaise will be what takes us out. Housing stocks peaked in the summer of 2005 and were the first group to start down. Now housing stocks are one of the few areas in the market that are up for the year. They were among the best-performing groups in 1991, and could repeat that this year. Financials appear to have bottomed, and the consumer space will get relief from lower interest rates. Oil prices have come down, and oil and oil service stocks are underperforming in the early going.
Investors seem to be obsessed just now over the question of whether we will go into recession or not, a particularly pointless inquiry. The stocks that perform poorly entering a recession are already trading at recession levels. If we go into recession, we will come out of it. In any case, we have had only two recessions in the past 25 years, and they totaled 17 months. As long-term investors, we position portfolios for the 95% of the time the economy is growing, not the unforecastable 5% when it is not.
I believe equity valuations in general are attractive now, and I believe they are compelling in those areas of the market that have performed poorly over the past few years. Traders and those with short attention spans may still be fearful, but long-term investors should be well rewarded by taking advantage of the opportunities in today’s stock market. “
Countrywide (CFC):
“Since the cut in rates, many companies closely tied to the housing and mortgage markets have seen their shares rise sharply. Washington Mutual, the nation’s largest thrift, is up over 30% this year. IndyMac, a smaller version of CFC, is likewise up over 30% this year. CFC shares, on the other hand, are down 25% as share price appreciation has been truncated by the deal with Bank of America (BAC).
We will support the deal if we believe it is in the best interests of shareholders to sell to BAC, and we will vote LMCM’s shares against it if we believe greater value can be achieved by having CFC remain independent. “
Value vs. Price:
“But the price of a publicly traded security is one thing, and its value is something else. Price is a function of short-term supply and demand characteristics, which are heavily influenced by the most recent news and results. Value is the present value of the future cash flows of the business, and that is what we focus on. We believe the values in the market today are as attractive as they have been in the past five years, and that patient long-term investors (including the Fund) should be well rewarded for putting money to work right in here.”
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
