“Davidson” submits:
The Establishment Survey is 177,000 higher while the Household Survey reports an increase of 436,000. The Household data has been lagging and now appears to be catching up. There remain questions about past releases validity, but these should work themselves out over time. Employment trends continue to rise supporting the recession non-existence narrative. Government employment is in the process of rolling over into decline.
Total Construction Spending holding in uptrend with prior month revised higher. Importantly construction for Manufacturing and Power are holding at historically elevated levels. This is a March number and likely reflects late winter storms. As expected, Construction Employment is also on an uptrend in record territory for the series.Looking very good economically.
The ‘Broken Record’ keeps playing, Industrial Production(IndPro) at its highest levels ever while PMI remains in doldrums at 48.7. One only has to listen to a couple of earnings calls, like that Chart Industries(GTLS) gave this morning. GTLS supplies the equipment to condense and separate the gases used industrially used in nearly every industry and scientific study globally. GTLS CEO Evanko indicated record backlog and no indications of tariff related slowing to demand. Recent reports from other industrials support a similar outlook. The PMI fell below 50, its recession benchmark, Nov 2022 and but for a few reports since has remained below 50 since. Not only has no recession occurred, but Employment, Personal Income and importantly IndPro have remained in uptrends since, even reaching record series highs.
