Retail Sales Revised Higher

“Davidson” submits:

Real Retail Sales were higher than many expected compounded by prior months being revised higher. The current pace appears to be tracking above the trend prior to COVID from 2012. One of the elements of this series is that it measures only 80% of total retail sales since only the larger multi-sited business data is captured. The anomaly-spike post-COVID was a result of retail sales being forced into the reporting businesses as many smaller retail businesses were forced to close. These have either reestablished themselves or newer businesses have been started to replace those that have been lost. April 2024 now appears in hindsight to have been roughly when these non-reporting businesses regained their traction by examining the chart patterns.

This report looks healthy even though pessimists believe a non-repeatable tariff-effect is at work. Looking at all the economic data trends, one is struck by the repeated pessimism that the data is not as “bad” as it should be if one’s primary view is shaped by the manufacturing PMI or the Regional Fed Diffusion Indices. Many pull out declines within the data to underline their pessimism. That can only continue so long if the data continues to outdistance expectations.

I remain very, very positive on the economy and selected equities.