“Davidson” submits:
The Establishment Survey rose 22,000 and the Household Survey rose 288,000. As illegal alien deportations, self or government induced, are numbered between 1-2mil individuals, employment has stalled. This can be clearly visualized in the chart. Government employment is declining as policy changes shrink the total DC govt employment. The rise in native-born employment is reported as rising but is hidden by the decreasing non-native exits. This should prove a multi-year impact and make these series by themselves unreliable regarding historical measures of economic activity.
Instead, we must rely on Real Personal Income, Real Retail Sales, Capacity and Capacity Utilization, Construction Spending, Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production and Consumer Debt Delinquencies while keeping in mind that they must fit the consensus-narratives present in markets that represent the drivers of both economic activity and market psychology. Market prices always represent market psychology which in recent years has lagged economics.
Where the economics diverge from market prices lays market opportunities that are generally worth exploiting. At present the economics are decently positive while market psychology remains skewed to AI related issues.
Excerpt from the September report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.”
