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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Pete Najarian likes Pride Int’l (PDE) $45.95

Karen Finerman recommends Golan (GLNG) $20.26

Guy Adami suggest Citigroup (C) $23.12

Jeff Mack thinks Microsoft (MSFT) $29.99 is a buy.

Friday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Citigroup (C) $23.73 Close $23.12 LOSS

Tim Seymour recommends NII Holdings (NIHD) $50.66 for consolidation in wireless. Close $50.53 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Sasol (SSL) $65.11 for mining.Close $65.94 GAIN

Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $59.80. Close $59.86 Gain

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 39-30-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 39-34
Pete Najarian= 37-33
Karen Finerman= 34-29-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Icahn on Texaco / Getty Lawsuit

Another funny story about Texaco

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Icahn Does Stand-Up

This is a funny story about his attempted US Steel (X) takeover

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Peltz and Starbucks: Bad for Schultz, Good for Shareholders

so famed investor Nelson Peltx has taken a just over 1% stake in Starbucks (SBUX). At least there is finally someone there who makes the stock (and company) interesting..

Recently, the billionaire has bought large stakes in Wendy’s (WEN), Kraft (KFT) and H.J. Heinz (HNZ) through his hedge fund. Peltz then pressured management to make changes aimed at improving profit margins and lifting stock prices. Typically Peltz pressures the companies to focus on the core of their businesses and divest sell off less-profitable endeavors.

Based on that alone one can expect the “Entertainment” division of Starbucks to be first on the chopping block. Rather than producing albums and books, let just get the coffee thing going in the right direction.

Starbucks is coming off a Q2 that saw net income fall 28% and its same store sales at U.S. locations fall by their widest margin ever. Management is going to have a real hard time dismissing any ideas Peltz puts forward based on both their current track records lately.

This is really good for shareholders. If nothing else, Peltz will remind them of what the chain really is supposed to be, a coffee house. Not a book and record producer. Not a coffee machine retailer. Not a baker and so forth. Just do coffee and do it very well and people will return.

Here is another idea. Why not franchise? Really, why? It may be a bizarre control things in Seattle but it works just fantastically for every other multi-location food retailer (yes, that is what you are). Franchise fees alone would add to the bottom line while reducing costs, freeing up money (not for expansion) but for buying back shares or actually giving shareholders a dividend. They deserve something after the last 18 months. Hell, put 10% to 20% of the US stores up for sale to “master franchisees” and watch the offers come pouring in.

It would work…..if they will just listen out there which, unfortunately, is not a given..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Borders (BGP) to Sell Paperchase

Looking for a price tag of about $80 million, borders (BGP) has put the UK Paperchase stationary retailer up for sale.

Paperchase has more than 100 stores and concessions, including ones in House of Fraser and Selfridges department stores in the UK. Recently, (2005) is has begun opening concessions in US Borders stores.

Reports are that Goldman Sachs (GS) has been hired to conduct a review that ought to lead to a sale.

I am not sure this is the best thing long term for Borders but, given the current retail environment, it is a necessary step to pay down some debt, restore more liquidity and let’s be honest, make it more attractive to a buyer.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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Bush and Saudi’s: What Actually Happened?

So I go outside and pick up my paper this mornings and well, it seems there is a difference of opinion…

The Wall St. Journal ran the headline “Saudi’s Rebuff Bush on Oil” saying the Kingdom refused to increase oil production.

The Financial Times ran the headline “Saudi’s Bow to Oil Pressure” and said the Saudi’s agreed to increase production 300,000 bpd to the highest levels in two years…

Anyone know what actually happened???????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long oil (USO)

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Bush and Saudi's: What Actually Happened?

So I go outside and pick up my paper this mornings and well, it seems there is a difference of opinion…

The Wall St. Journal ran the headline “Saudi’s Rebuff Bush on Oil” saying the Kingdom refused to increase oil production.

The Financial Times ran the headline “Saudi’s Bow to Oil Pressure” and said the Saudi’s agreed to increase production 300,000 bpd to the highest levels in two years…

Anyone know what actually happened???????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long oil (USO)

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Saturday Reading

Check out the College Analysts, Lead Paint

James Cullen has a great write up on American Express (AXP).

Jane Genova says the Fat Lady is singing at the RI Lead Paint Trial…for the plaintiff

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading at VIN

Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News

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Yahoo’s (YHOO) Yang Officially Out of His League (and mind)

What is Jerry Yang doing? It is one thing to thumb your nose at Microsoft’s (MSFT) Ballmer, but, to do it at Icahn? Jerry, you are officially out of your league…

Yang replied to Icahn’s letter today:

You see, Ballmer ultimately has to play nice because he did not want a mutiny of Yahoo (YHOO) employees when he took over. Icahn, however, could care less. Ballmer will sit back and let Carl get his knuckles dirty beating Yang’s head into the ground and still get what he wants.

Carl does care about Yahoo, he only wants to make a buck. Yang is operating like Carl wants to own Yahoo. The “you do not understand” line must have had Carl howling. No, Jerry, it is you who do not understand who you are no up against. Do what Carl says or he will take control of the board and you will be reading about the already determined outcome in the papers. This is hard ball now and Icahn makes the rules…

By the time this is over, Yang and his cohorts will beg Ballmer to come save them. Anyone want to guess the deal get done for less than $33? You think Microsoft is not buying shares on the open market at $25 to $27?

$37…. really Jerry? It would be another decade before Yahoo saw shares trade at that level. Walk away Jerry, you already took care of yourself.

Here is more:

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Yahoo's (YHOO) Yang Officially Out of His League (and mind)

What is Jerry Yang doing? It is one thing to thumb your nose at Microsoft’s (MSFT) Ballmer, but, to do it at Icahn? Jerry, you are officially out of your league…

Yang replied to Icahn’s letter today:

You see, Ballmer ultimately has to play nice because he did not want a mutiny of Yahoo (YHOO) employees when he took over. Icahn, however, could care less. Ballmer will sit back and let Carl get his knuckles dirty beating Yang’s head into the ground and still get what he wants.

Carl does care about Yahoo, he only wants to make a buck. Yang is operating like Carl wants to own Yahoo. The “you do not understand” line must have had Carl howling. No, Jerry, it is you who do not understand who you are no up against. Do what Carl says or he will take control of the board and you will be reading about the already determined outcome in the papers. This is hard ball now and Icahn makes the rules…

By the time this is over, Yang and his cohorts will beg Ballmer to come save them. Anyone want to guess the deal get done for less than $33? You think Microsoft is not buying shares on the open market at $25 to $27?

$37…. really Jerry? It would be another decade before Yahoo saw shares trade at that level. Walk away Jerry, you already took care of yourself.

Here is more:

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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More on Bond Insurers

A follow up to yesterday’s post on whether or not it might be time to look at the sector. You may want to check it out before going on.

Here is an interview with MBIA (MBI) CEO Jay Brown. It should be noted Brown was not at the helm when things went south.

Part 1

Part 2

What I took from this was the dire valuations currently being given to their portfolio’s. Should these estimates, currently “8 times worse than what we saw in January” not come to pass. The upside here is tremendous.

These are beginning to look very appealing. I think perhaps waiting until early summer (1 more quarter) to see how the businesses are doing is the thing to do…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Sears.com: Fastest Growing Internet Retailer

Based on the lack of chatter about it out there, it would seem that the stunning changes at the website for Sears Holdings (SHLD) have gone unnoticed.

Sears is looking to make their site, Sears.com a “go to” site for all consumers needs and its 20% plus growth implies they just may be succeeding.

Notables:
* December 2007 when Sears.com partnered with Alliance Entertainment Corporation (AEC) to offer movies and music to its online shoppers. Sears.com now houses more than 250,000 titles
* February 2008, a co-branded site hosted by Digital River. Customers can purchase and immediately download to their PC or laptop software programs ranging from finance,
games, security and system utilities.
* April 2008, Sears.com expanded its For the Home Online Store by partnering with ArtSelect.com. Sears’ customers now have a complete art gallery and custom frame shop at their fingertips. After finding a favorite art piece, visitors can create a custom finished product by choosing the mat and frame. The design can be viewed against a wall color, saved in a gallery, or shared with friends. Featuring more than 300,000 image options for art prints and canvas reproductions, as well as mirrors and tapestries, the
frame shop fits any style of home decor.
* April 2008, Sears.com partnered with Baker & Taylor to offer an online book assortment consisting of more than 600,000 products. Customers can order books in advance of release date.

So, how is the site doing? At an estimated $2.6 billion in sales, Sears ranks as the largest mass merchant retailer online after Amazon.com (AMZN) and is the seventh-largest online store in the U.S., according to revenue estimates from online consultants and Internet Retailer’s annual Top 500 guide.

Shoppers that visited Sears.com and Kmart.com at least once in February rose 20%, to 14.7 million vs last year. That makes Sears’ Web business the 2nd fastest growing site among mass merchants vs 2007, after Costco (COST) at 23%, according to Nielsen Online.

Sears.com alone drew 12.3 million visitors in February, up 28% from 2007. That makes it fastest growing Web site among retailers besting Amazon’s 17% increase.

When traffic from Kmart and Lands’ End is added, Sears Holdings is drawing about 18 million people to its Web sites each month. Only Amazon at 47.7 million, Target (TGT) at 22.6 million and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) at 21.3 million draw more people, according to Nielsen.

All of the above information is from before the new initiatives have been implemented.

Back in January, Jim Barr, previously for seven years the general manager of Microsoft’s (MSFT) MSN Shopping on MSN.com, was named SVP in charge of Sears’ online business. Then the company said, “Jim will be responsible for leading a new organization focused on innovative business architecture design, merchandising planning/operational development and technology solutions integration,” the company says.

Paul Miller, who joined Sears as senior vice president of direct commerce in November 2006 from Williams-Sonoma Inc., will report to Barr, the company says.

Clearly Barr is making fast and dramatic changes to the site and based on results to date, so far so good..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, WMT, None

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Housing’s Head Fake

Those who ever played football can remember that when tackling, never watch the runners head, watch his waist. For those thinking about about investing based on today’s housing numbers, don’t watch the headline, look at the meat of the numbers.

Housing starts increased 8.2% to a seasonally adjusted 1.032 million annual rate, besting economists expectations of April starts to drop by 1.4% to a 934,000-unit annual rate (yet another reason to doubt economists). The 8.2% increase was the largest monthly climb since a 14.0% jump in January 2006.

But, the increase was driven by multi-family units (apartments). Simply put, folks are not buying houses and the sudden surge in foreclosures mean more folks are looking for apartments to rent.

A much closer look shows April single-family housing starts decreased 1.7% to 692,000. Construction of housing with two or more units soared 36.0% to 340,000; within that category, homes with five or more units (multi-family) were 40.5% higher.

Now it is good news for a simple reason that any economic activity is good as it provides jobs and does mean folks are not homeless. But, if we are hoping for a housing rebound, not yet.

It is good news for companies like Sherwin Williams (SHE), USG (USG) and Owens Corning (OC) because whether the dwelling houses 1 or 5 families, all of the above company’s materials will be used to build it.

Toll Brothers (TOL) released preliminary Q2 results and reported a 30% drop in home-building revenue earlier this week. CEO Robert I. Toll, said current customer traffic is “the worst we’ve ever seen” and said would-be buyers are “scared.”

Not so sure they are scared but “opportunistic”. They know they have the sellers by the cahones and are taking Watergate ‘s H.R. “Bob” Halderman’s advice, “When you have got your competition by the balls…squeeze”.

Acting nervous is just a ploy to soak builders or sellers out of more concessions. I know some people looking now and all comment how sellers are willing to do just about anything “including coming to our house and packing for us”.

At the end of the day the news is good, but, not the potentially “end of the pain” news the headline might suggest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, OC, None

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Housing's Head Fake

Those who ever played football can remember that when tackling, never watch the runners head, watch his waist. For those thinking about about investing based on today’s housing numbers, don’t watch the headline, look at the meat of the numbers.

Housing starts increased 8.2% to a seasonally adjusted 1.032 million annual rate, besting economists expectations of April starts to drop by 1.4% to a 934,000-unit annual rate (yet another reason to doubt economists). The 8.2% increase was the largest monthly climb since a 14.0% jump in January 2006.

But, the increase was driven by multi-family units (apartments). Simply put, folks are not buying houses and the sudden surge in foreclosures mean more folks are looking for apartments to rent.

A much closer look shows April single-family housing starts decreased 1.7% to 692,000. Construction of housing with two or more units soared 36.0% to 340,000; within that category, homes with five or more units (multi-family) were 40.5% higher.

Now it is good news for a simple reason that any economic activity is good as it provides jobs and does mean folks are not homeless. But, if we are hoping for a housing rebound, not yet.

It is good news for companies like Sherwin Williams (SHE), USG (USG) and Owens Corning (OC) because whether the dwelling houses 1 or 5 families, all of the above company’s materials will be used to build it.

Toll Brothers (TOL) released preliminary Q2 results and reported a 30% drop in home-building revenue earlier this week. CEO Robert I. Toll, said current customer traffic is “the worst we’ve ever seen” and said would-be buyers are “scared.”

Not so sure they are scared but “opportunistic”. They know they have the sellers by the cahones and are taking Watergate ‘s H.R. “Bob” Halderman’s advice, “When you have got your competition by the balls…squeeze”.

Acting nervous is just a ploy to soak builders or sellers out of more concessions. I know some people looking now and all comment how sellers are willing to do just about anything “including coming to our house and packing for us”.

At the end of the day the news is good, but, not the potentially “end of the pain” news the headline might suggest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, OC, None

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