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Ross To Buy Banks

So, last week I posted this video in which Wilbur Ross claimed the next big investment opportunity would be in smaller banks. Today news is he want to be the one buying them.

Bloomberg reported today Ross is seeking $4 billion from overseas investors.

Ross will talk with Gulf investors in Abu Dhabi next week about 100 to 200 so-called thrift banks. In the interview Ross said regional depositary banks have “more narrowly defined” problems and “a more stable base of deposits” than cross-border lenders such as Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS), Ross said. He plans to package U.S. thrift bank acquisitions “as a finished product” to sovereign wealth funds.

He continued, saying thrifts are “particularly vulnerable because their portfolios tend to be so real estate-oriented,” and so can be bought “at a very attractive price,” Ross said today. Acquired banks could be combined with a mortgage business to provide stable funding for home loans that are “essential” to the U.S. economy even if “singularly unprofitable” right now.

Here is the challenge, how do we figure out what 100 to 200 thrifts he is talking about out of the thousands out there? Since he cannot by more than 24.9% of one without coming under Federal regulation, he must have his eyes set on a few of them since he will most likely not have any problem getting the money he seeks given his track record.

He is building a mortgage empire at distressed prices.

Anyone got a good stock screen for Ross?

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long C, none

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Behind the Tobacco Payments (MO),(RAI)

Tuesday, Altria (MO) made its full annual Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) payment of approximately $4 billion. It includes approximately $156 million that PM (Phillip Morris) USA disputes it owes as a result of the 2005 Non-Participating Manufacturer (NPM) Adjustment. There is more here than just this money though.

Some Background:
Just like the 2003 and 2004 NPM Adjustments, Altria paid the disputed money to the states, although according to the Master Settlement Agreement it could have placed disputed money into a “Disputed Payments Account”.

“We continue to work in good faith with the states to resolve the Non-Participating Manufacturer adjustment dispute, whether by settlement or by the arbitration process specified by the Master Settlement Agreement,” said Denise Keane, general counsel of Altria.

For the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, the The Brattle Group, appointed under the Master Settlement Agreement has rendered a final and non-appealable decision that the MSA was a “significant factor contributing to” the market share loss of the Participating Manufacturers for 2003, 2004 and 2005. The loss in market share was to smaller discount cigarette makers that are not bound by the term of the settlement.

Because of their decision, the Original Participating Manufacturers are entitled to a Non-Participating Manufacturer Adjustment to their 2003, 2004 and 2005 payments. States that prove they have diligently enforced their qualifying escrow statutes during all of 2003, 2004 and 2005 will be able to avoid application of the Adjustment to their payments.

The refund due to Altria should they prevail would now be approximately $500 million.

Altria and the other Original Participating Manufacturers claim the dispute over the NPM Adjustment is subject to binding arbitration pursuant to the Master Settlement Agreement’s arbitration clause. States and territories claim that this dispute should be determined by state courts. However, more than 45 courts have agreed with Altria’s position that arbitration is the required forum for this dispute. Right, that is 45-0 in favor of the tobacco companies.

What Else Is There?
RJR Tobacco (RAI), also made its payment of $2.25 billion, but deposited the disputed amount of $431 million into the “disputed payments account”. It is the third year the maker of Camel, Kool and other brands deposited the disputed portion of its payment into the “disputed” account.

Remember that little FDA bill we talked about last week?

Altria is firmly behind the bill and RJR has been against it from day one. Altria is using the payments, and their cooperation in not witholding funds from cash-starved states as leverage to get the bill passed in a form it wants. In the same respect, RJR is witholding cash from the same states in an attempt to force changes to the bill it wants.

Little has been said about the bill, probably because most in the media have not bothered to read it yet but if it passes in its current form. Altria is the winner.

The bill will essentially eliminate new cigarette introduction in the US. With over 50% market share, Altria will have its market protected by the FDA. RJR, on the other hand, will not be able to introduce new products in an attempt to steal share from Altria. They will be forced to purchase new brands, a far more expensive proposition.

If the disputed funds go to arbitration, the tobacco companies will win and this is the reason the states want it in their courts. That being said, both Altria and RJR are using the money to influence legislation. Should the trade off for Altria be they forgo the money to get the legislation they want, it will be money well spent.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO, None

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Wednesday’s Links

Hypocrite, Bias, Hypocrite, College,

– We should change the spelling to O-B-A-M-A

Oh please….

– Or, we could spell it K-E-R-R-Y.

– Perhaps this will bring down the insane cost of it?

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Wednesday's Links

Hypocrite, Bias, Hypocrite, College,

– We should change the spelling to O-B-A-M-A

Oh please….

– Or, we could spell it K-E-R-R-Y.

– Perhaps this will bring down the insane cost of it?

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Charlie Munger's Latest Letter

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) and Wesco Financial’s (WSC) Charlie Munger’s latest leter to shareholders has been released.

Read it here

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Charlie Munger’s Latest Letter

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) and Wesco Financial’s (WSC) Charlie Munger’s latest leter to shareholders has been released.

Read it here

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades
Smithfield Foods (SFD)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Eaton (ETN)- Oppenheimer Underperform » Perform
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Downgrades
Aqua America (WTR)- Hilliard Lyons Buy » Long-term Buy
Crocs (CROX)- Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Hold
Crocs (CROX)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Radiant Systems (RADS)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Manitowoc (MTW)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Pride Intl (PDE)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
CoBiz (COBZ)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Hercules Offshore (HERO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Manitowoc (MTW)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Telefonos de Mex (TMX)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Conexant (CNXT)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
VCG Holding (VCGH)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Blockbuster (BBI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Emulex (ELX)- Citigroup Buy » Sell
EMC Corp (EMC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Noble Corp (NE)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Rowan Cos (RDC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Diamond Offshore (DO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Ensco (ESV)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Sell
Transocean (RIG)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Bill Barrett (BBG)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Concho Resources (CXO)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades
Smithfield Foods (SFD)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Eaton (ETN)- Oppenheimer Underperform » Perform
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Downgrades
Aqua America (WTR)- Hilliard Lyons Buy » Long-term Buy
Crocs (CROX)- Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Hold
Crocs (CROX)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Radiant Systems (RADS)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Manitowoc (MTW)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Pride Intl (PDE)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
CoBiz (COBZ)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Hercules Offshore (HERO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Manitowoc (MTW)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Telefonos de Mex (TMX)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Conexant (CNXT)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Affymetrix (AFFX)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
VCG Holding (VCGH)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Blockbuster (BBI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Emulex (ELX)- Citigroup Buy » Sell
EMC Corp (EMC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Noble Corp (NE)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Rowan Cos (RDC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Diamond Offshore (DO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Ensco (ESV)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Sell
Transocean (RIG)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Bill Barrett (BBG)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Concho Resources (CXO)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Apple (AAPL)s $148.38

Karen Finerman recommends Domtar (UFS) $6.64

Pete Najarian prefers Noble Corp. (NE) $54.26

Jeff Macke thinks IBM (IBM) $117.17 is a sell.

Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Citigroup (C) $22.51 Close $22.80 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Microsoft (MSFT) $28.06 Close $28.25 GAIN

Pete Najarian recommends Halliburton (HAL) $44.08 Close $44.53 GAIN

Guy Adami thinks Wachovia (WB) $25.55 is a buy with an extraordinarily tight stop. Close $25.42 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 28-20-1
Tim Seymore= 15-10
Guy Adami= 26-25
Pete Najarian= 28-22
Karen Finerman= 21-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Sears (SHLD) One-Ups Wal-Mart (WMT) For Stimulus Checks

The race for your rebate check is on for retailers and it looks as though Sears may have taken the lead from Wal-Mart for now.

Back in January, Wal-Mart WMT) announced their plan to help consumers spend their upcoming rebate checks from the government.

Today Sears Holdings (SHLD) announced its plan and it is better for the consumer.

Sears will:
“When customers bring their stimulus checks to a Sears or Kmart cash register, they can convert the amount of the check into gift cards, plus receive a bonus gift card worth an additional 10 percent. To be eligible, the amount of gift cards purchased must be equal to the full value of the stimulus check. The gift cards can be redeemed at any Sears, Kmart or Lands’ End retail stores or online at sears.com or landsend.com. The promotion is scheduled to last from May 14 to July 19, 2008.”

“Even with a weak economic outlook, a recent survey conducted by Sears suggests that Americans still want to make small changes in their homes. While nearly all respondents agreed that in the current economy it is more important than ever to get the best value for your money, three out of five people said that despite financial concerns, they are still investing in small home improvements that can make a difference.”

“Beginning May 1, customers can learn more about this offer in stores, as well as in Sears Holdings’ circulars, online, targeted emails and direct mail pieces. The gift cards and bonus cards have no expiration and no fees.”

Like Wal-Mart’s plan the card can be used for groceries at Kmart and with the additional of Sears, the spectrum of quality lawn and garden tools and clothing is multiples of Wal-Mart’s offerings.

Let’s not forget the 10% kicker for consumers also. The significance of that cannot be understated. I will get $2100 back in my check, if needed a new washer or dryer, my total Sears card would be for $2310, bonus included. That is a nice chunk of change and would lead me there to get them without question.

Wal-Mart got the jump on retailers in January but Sears today took that and raised the bar a notch. One has to wonder why the silence from Target (TGT), JC Penny (JCP) and other retailers as the date approaches. Even though they were first out of the gate, it is possible that Wal-Mart was just a little too early with their announcement as the checks will not begin to roll off the presses for another month.

I also do not think Wal-Mart will not have some sort of answer….they will.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD,WMT, None

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McCain’s Economic Plan (video)

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McCain's Economic Plan (video)

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Recession Conversation (video)

This is a very interesting conversation about the current economy.

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Howard Schultz is Delusional

Starbucks (SBUX) Chairman and now CEO did an interview with Business Week and a read of it shows a stunning lack of grasp of reality.

The “A” are Schultz answers
Q: So people have been spending less on $4 lattes?

A:No question about it. Our research suggests they’re not going anywhere else; they’re just coming to us less frequently. So we have to do everything we can to demonstrate to our customers that Starbucks is an affordable luxury.

OK. So, if they are not going anywhere else and just not coming to you Howard, how can we explain the increasing traffic counts at McDonalds for breakfast and coffee each quarter? Is McDonalds cloning existing customers? I can give you the names of a few dozen who have made the switch.

Are former Starbucks customers just not drinking coffee anymore?

Q:Earlier you said to me, the media has made such a huge deal about all of Starbucks’ competition. So tell us straight out what the story is here. Have you been hurt by the premium coffee sold at McDonald’s (MCD) or by Dunkin’ Donuts getting more aggressive?

A:First off, I don’t think there’s premium coffee being sold at those fast-food places. Second, this is not about the competition. Our customers are not buying a hamburger and fries and then going to get espresso. That’s not the case. What is the case is that there’s a downturn in the economy. As a result, people are coming in less often than they did a year ago. But we control our own destiny. And what we strongly believe is if we take care of our customers, produce the kind of product that is distinctive, and exceed their expectations, we’re going to be in great shape. But we’re going to couple that with relentless innovation that you’ll begin to see in the marketplace in the months ahead.

Wow…. “It’s not about the competition”…….That is stunningly reminiscent to a quote from former CEO Jim Donald just over a year ago when the stock was trading near all-time highs.

Sorry Howard but despite what you think, you do not exist in a consumer category of one.
While your customers are not “getting burgers and fries” with their coffee as you so condescendingly pontificate, they are going there for COFFEE. Based on results for the past year, they are doing so in droves.

When you started Starbucks you were a pioneer in the industry. Now, it is crowded with competition. It just cannot be denied.

I am sure there is a small segment of the population that can tell the difference between coffee roasts just like there is one that can do so with wine. If we admit that we also have to admit the overwhelming majority of the population cannot. This is ok if you have 1,000 restaurants nationally that cater to an elite crowd but when you have 14,000, it is the tastes and preferences of the majority that control your destiny. Schultz has not realized this or refuses to admit it.

Let’s be honest here. If I buy a vente caramel macchiado or a hazelnut latte, by the time the milk, syrup and caramel are poured over the espresso, if there really anyone who can tell if it is “super premium”, “premium” or just “really good” espresso beans? I doubt it and would really question anyone who said they could. Again, there may be a select few who can, but they will not support a 14,000 store chain.

That being true, then we now have a generic aspect to the product. If the product becomes generic, then price rules.

Schultz’s refusal to admit he has competition is very bad news for shareholders. It means that there won’t be any moves from the company to address to the apparent non-existing competition anytime soon. Too bad….

Here is the whole interview.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none

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Pershing Updates Borders (BGP) Stake

Bill Ackman files a 13-D/A regarding his holdings in borders (BGP).

From the 13D/A filed yesterday:

“As of April 9, 2008, as reflected in this Amendment No. 7, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 20,147,880 shares of Common Stock (approximately 28.8% of the outstanding shares). This includes warrants covering 9,550,000 shares of Common Stock (as further described below in Item 4). The Reporting Persons own cash settled, total return equity swaps covering 4,805,463 notional shares of Common Stock (as previously disclosed). The notional shares that underlie such swaps are not included in the totals set forth in the charts earlier in the Schedule 13D. The aggregate economic exposure of the Reporting Persons to shares of Common Stock, including the aggregate shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons plus the aggregate notional shares underlying such swaps, represents approximately 35.6% of the sum of the outstanding shares of Common Stock and the shares of Common Stock underlying such warrants.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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