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Wednesday’s Link

Nothing to do with investing. Only one link today because someone has to say it………

Barack Obama delivered a speech on Tuesday in which he said “Race is an issue I believe this nation cannot afford to ignore right now”.

Here is the thing. He is a hypocrite. The only reason he is even close to getting the Democratic nomination is because the overwhelming majority of American’s actually do ignore race. It is not an issue for us. We could care less.

We tend to concentrate more on “the content of their character, not the color of their skin”. Who said that?

Were American’s to focus solely on race, Obama, an African American would not have a prayer of winning as his “race” is roughly 10% of the US population. If American’s were hung up on race, his friend Oprah would not be the most powerful women in television and quite possibly America and Tiger Woods would not be the most sought after endorsement since Micheal Jordan.

Now the other argument is that American’s are focused on race and the only reason we have elevated someone with a stunning dearth of experience to the position he is in is simply because he is black. Which would the Senator prefer?

No, we American’s tend to ignore race until those looking to opportunistically profit from it remind us to concentrate on it. Instead of saying the remarks of his Pastor were wrong, he ought to have immediately disassociated himself from the Preacher and the Church, much like John McCain did to a supporter who had the audacity to simply use Obama’s middle name.

Hatred is hatred no matter what color it comes from or how eloquent and passionate the diatribe that delivers it is.

The media is of course giving him a pass on this one. Let me ask, had Hillary or McCain attended a church that espoused a view of black America like the one spoken of at Obama’s, what would the expectations be of either of those two candidates? Perhaps if their Pastor gave a sermon railing against homosexuality? Would a simply “I disagree” work?

I don’t think so either…

Has anyone asked Obama why he called for Don Imus to be fired for his remarks but not the Preacher?

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The Press Still Does Not Get It…

Watch this video. This is the third one I have seen with Paulson in which the reported tries to say that the Fed is more concerned with Wall St. vs Main St.. Hello Matt?!? Would you mind asking a Bear Sterns (BSC) shareholder the same question? I would guess they would give you a though or two on the subject.

By the way Matt, Bear Sterns effectively no longer exists…..Bailout?

I am in amazement that Paulson can actually answer the question without asking Matt if he ever even took Economics 100..

Matt says three times “Bailout” in regard to Bear Sterns….. go away Matt, stick to “cute puppy” stories…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Starbucks: Initial Reports Not Encouraging

Some initial thoughts on early reports on Starbucks’ (SBUX) “initiatives”.

In an interview before the meeting, Starbucks executives said they want to bring back some of the romance and theater that’s been missing from stores since the company switched to using sealed grounds years ago. Starbucks will quit using flavor-locked bags of pre-ground coffee next month and get back to grinding beans in most of its U.S. stores.

Starbucks’ senior vice president of global strategy, Michelle Gass says she expects the change will improve sales that have gone to rivals McDonalds (MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts.

One quote struck me, “”We have an economy in a tailspin . . . and a company whose performance has not met your expectations or mine,” Howard Schultz. Earth to Howard, we have not even had one quarter of negative GDP, this not only does not qualify as a tailspin, it barely qualifies as a hiccup. This is alarming as Schultz is seeming to push the chains poor results, which have been deteriorating for longer than the economy on outside factors.

Has he seen McDonald’s results?

Rather than a return to what they do best, Starbucks seems intent, at least after initial reports to be running around in more directions. After begging them to get rid of the clutter in the stores, a report is out that they sell approximately 2 Cd’s per day per location. What is the point for forging ahead with this? The resource expenditure in terms of money, human time and stores space is tremendous for essentially zero return.

Here are the initiatives:
* A proprietary and revolutionary in-store Clover® brewing system that delivers the best cup of brewed coffee available anywhere;
* A complete reinvention of brewed coffee in-store, that will be brought to life by baristas across the U.S., who will scoop and grind a new unique coffee blend, connecting customers to the early days of Starbucks;
* The introduction of a new state-of-the-art espresso system that provides the perfect shot every time and helps facilitate the critical connection between barista and customer;
* The first phase of a Starbucks Card Rewards program, rewarding registered cardholders and providing unique new benefits when using their cards in Starbucks stores;
* The launch of MyStarbucksIdea.com, Starbucks first online community, that takes the Starbucks Experience outside the store and enables customers to play a role in shaping the company’s future; and,
* An expanded relationship with Conservation International

A social networking site? Why? An expanded relationship with Conservation International? Nice, but, who really cares? Stocking your shelves with 100% organic products would have made a much larger difference with countless more folks. It seems as though Schultz is driving the company to be almost a social experiment and is ignoring his business’s realities. When he started, he had almost no competition. Now the competition is fierce. A social networking site will be meaningless long term.

The initiatives set to “transform” the company simply fall flat and will perpetuate the current slide. As a casual Starbucks user, only one of the six actually will have any affect on me and any purchasing decision and even it is negligible. A new espresso machine and coffee brewer? So what. Are you telling me what is in there now is no good? The one that will actually matter? A rewards card, not a bad idea.

Schultz & Co. still have not addressed the chief complaints people have, Convenience, Price and Service. Until they do, do not expect any dramatic improvement.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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"Way of theTurtle"

I read the book “Way of the Turtle” this week and while I am not a trader, there were some very fascinating takeaways for every investor.

Here is a portion of the best part of the book (for me):

Chapter Two: Taming the Turtle Mind:

The author, Curtis Faith talks about “cognitive biases” that effect investors decision making. While he is talking strictly about traders, it does pertain to all investors because in some way were are all traders, our time frames for our trades just differ greatly.

The biases are:

Loss Aversion: The tendency for people to have a strong preference for avoiding losses over acquiring gains

Sunk costs effect: The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired.

Disposition effect: The tendency for people to lock in gains and ride losses

Outcome bias: The tendency to judge a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the decision at the time it was made

Recovery bias: The tendency to weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience (“it is different this time”)

Anchoring: The tendency to rely to heavily or “anchor” on easily available information

Bandwagon: Believing something because many other believe the same thing.

Believe in the law of small numbers: Drawing unjustified conclusions from too little information.

We all do these things and taken in concert, they can be the destruction of our portfolios. The importance of any one of the biases grow or diminishes based on the time frame you, as an investor have. If you have a two year time frame, the disposition effect varies. You can “ride a loss” for six or seven months and still come out ahead a year down the road. If you are an option trader, riding a loss for more than a month could ruin you.

It is hard to avoid these biases because they are ingrained in our nature. What one needs to do is remind themselves of them and then before investing ask your self if you are making the decision you are making because of any of the biases. If you are, then you may not be please with the results..

Chapter four takes the biases and uses them in conjunction with the trading strategy. A good chapter for both investors and traders as the concepts apply to both

All in all the books was worth the money spent if not only for the first half of it. The second half of the book goes into the “Turtle Trading System” which, as a non-trader, I have very little interest in. For those who are traders, it would be very valuable though.

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Altria’s Spin: Your Questions Answered

Here are the answers to many questions regarding the upcoming Altria (MO) spin of PMI.

Q: I own Altria shares. What will I receive as a result of the Spin-off?

A: Altria will distribute one share of PMI common stock for each share of Altria common stock outstanding as of the Record Date for the Distribution.

Q: What is the Record Date for the Distribution, and when will the Distribution occur?

A: The Record Date is March 19, 2008, and ownership is determined as of 5:00 p.m. New
York City Time on that date. Shares of PMI common stock will be distributed on March 28, 2008. We refer to this date as the Distribution Date.

Q: What do I have to do to participate in the Distribution?

A: Nothing. You will receive one share of PMI common stock for each share of Altria common stock held as of the Record Date and retained through the Distribution Date. You may also participate in the Distribution if you purchase Altria common stock in the “regular way” market and retain your Altria shares through the Distribution Date. See “Summary—Trading Prior to or on the Distribution Date.”

Q: If I sell my shares of Altria common stock before or on the Distribution Date, will I still be entitled to receive PMI shares in the Distribution?

A: If you sell your shares of Altria common stock prior to or on the Distribution Date, you may also be selling your right to receive shares of PMI common stock. See “Summary—Trading Prior to or on the Distribution Date.” You are encouraged to consult with your financial advisor regarding the specific implications of selling your Altria common stock prior to or on the Distribution Date.

Q: Will the Spin-off affect the number of shares of Altria I currently hold?

A: The number of shares of Altria common stock held by a stockholder will be unchanged. The market value of each Altria share, however, will decline to reflect the impact of the Distribution

Q: What are the U.S. federal income taxconsequences of the Distribution to U.S.
stockholders?

A: Altria has received a private letter ruling from the Internal Revenue Service and an opinion of counsel that the Distribution of PMI common stock to Altria stockholders will qualify as a tax-free distribution for United States federal income tax purposes. You should, of course, consult your own tax advisor as to the particular consequences of the Distribution to you, including the applicability and effect of any U.S. federal, state and local and foreign tax laws, which may result in the distribution being taxable to you. Altria will provide its U.S. stockholders
with information to enable them to compute their tax basis in both Altria and PMI shares. This information will be posted on Altria’s website, www.altria.com/PMIspinoff, promptly following the Distribution Date. Certain United States federal income tax consequences of the Spin-off are described in more detail under “The Distribution—U.S. Federal Income Tax Consequences of the Distribution.”

Q: Is the Distribution tax free to Non-U.S. stockholders?

A: Non-U.S. stockholders may be subject to tax on the Distribution in jurisdictions other than the U.S. It is expected that the Distribution will be tax free in Canada and Sweden, but subject to tax in Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland. We will post the results (if any) of foreign tax authority determinations on our website, including the Canada Revenue Agency’s conclusion whether the Distribution is tax free. See “The Distribution—Tax Consequences of the Distribution to Non-U.S. Stockholders.” The foregoing is for general information purposes and does not constitute tax advice. Stockholders should consult their own tax advisors regarding the particular consequences of the Distribution to them.

Q: When will I receive my PMI shares? Will I receive a stock certificate for PMI shares distributed as a result of the Spin-off?

A: Registered holders of Altria common stock who are entitled to participate in the Distribution will receive a book-entry account statement reflecting their ownership of PMI common stock. For additional information, registered stockholders in the U.S. or Canada should contact Altria’s transfer agent, Computershare Trust Company, at 1-866-538-5172 or by e-mail at altria@computershare.com. Stockholders from outside the U.S. and Canada may call 1-781-575- 3572. If you would like to receive physical certificates evidencing your PMI shares, please contact PMI’s transfer agent. See “Description of Capital Stock—Transfer Agent and Registrar.”

Q: What if I hold my shares through a broker, bank or other nominee?

A: Altria stockholders who hold their shares through a broker, bank or other nominee will have their brokerage account credited with PMI common stock. For additional information, those stockholders should contact their broker or bank directly. Questions regarding the Distribution can also be directed to our information agent, D.F. King & Co., Inc., at 1-800-290-6431.

Q: What if I have stock certificates reflecting my shares of Altria common stock? Should I send them to the transfer agent or to Altria?

A: No, you should not send your stock certificates to the transfer agent or to Altria. You should retain your Altria stock certificates. No certificates representing your shares of PMI common stock will be mailed to you. PMI common stock will be issued as uncertificated shares registered in book-entry form through the direct registration system.

Q: If I was enrolled in an Altria dividend reinvestment plan, will I automatically be
enrolled in the PMI dividend reinvestment plan?

A: Yes. If you elected to have your Altria cash dividends applied toward the purchase of additional Altria shares, the PMI shares you receive in the Distribution will be automatically enrolled in the PMI Direct Stock Purchase and Dividend Reinvestment Plan sponsored by Computershare Trust Company (PMI’s transferagent and registrar), unless you notify Computershare that you do not want to reinvest any PMI cash dividends in additional PMI shares. For contact information for the PMI plan sponsor (Computershare), see “Description of Capital Stock—Transfer Agent and Registrar.”

Q: Why is Altria separating PMI from its business?

A: Altria’s Board of Directors and management believe the separation will provide the benefits set forth below under the caption “The Distribution—Reasons for the Distribution” and that achieving those benefits will result in greater aggregate value to stockholders who retain their Altria and PMI shares than would be obtained under the current structure.

Q: Why is the separation of the two companies structured as a spin-off?

A: A U.S. tax-free distribution of shares in PMI is the most tax efficient way to separate the companies.

Q: Are there risks to owning PMI common stock?

A: Yes. PMI’s business is subject both to general and specific business risks relating to its operations. In addition, the Spin-off presents risks relating to PMI’s being a separately-traded public company. See “Risk Factors.”

Q: Does PMI plan to pay dividends?

A: Yes. PMI plans to pay a dividend at the initial rate of $0.46 per share per quarter, or $1.84 per year. Dividends are subject to the discretion of PMI’s Board of Directors in accordance with applicable law. See “Dividend and Share Repurchase Policy.”

Q: What will the relationship between Altria and PMI be following the Distribution?

A: After the Distribution, Altria will not own any shares of PMI common stock. However, in connection with the Distribution, we are entering into a number of agreements with Altria that will govern the Spin-off and our future relationship with Altria. See “Relationship with Altria.”

Q: What will Altria own following the Distribution?

A: Altria will own 100% of PM USA, Philip Morris Capital Corporation and John Middleton, Inc., as well as its 28.6% economic interest in SABMiller plc.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Both Companies

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Borders Earnings…..

Borders (BGP) reports earnings tomorrow and while one would not expect stellar results, there some things that could give us real clarity into the future.

Borders expects operating profit, excluding one-time items, to be $1.45 per share or less in the fourth quarter. Analysts predict profit of $1.42 per share on revenue of $1.34 billion.

The key to Borders is Bill Ackman. He has upped his stake to 24.4% and has had discussions with management. Recently he was able to get a Pershing partner, Richard Mcquire appointed to Borders board of directors.

Based on Ackman’s success at McDonalds (MCD) and the fact he initially bought in at $24 and doubled down at $12, one has to think there is considerable upside from here.

Let’s assume the quarterly numbers meet expectations. What we are looking for is clarity. We want to know results at the newest location. Now that Ackman has a voice on the board, are there any announcements coming. Debt reduction? share repurchases (not likely). When the sale of the Australian is completed, what is the use of those funds going to be? Recent negotiations on the sale of it were terminated but it is a matter of time before a buyer is found.

The website. What expectations are there. What did they receive from the Amazon (AMZN) partnership and by how much do they expect to exceed that with their own site.

When is the new concept coming close to me? One was announced in Massachusetts but I am not willing to travel an hour for a bookstore. A central Massachusetts location is needed. Alright, this last one will have no effect whatsoever on the stock but I would like it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Omniture (OMTR)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Digi Intl (DGII)- Feltl & Co. Hold » Buy
Consolidated Water (CWCO)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
CSX Corp (CSX)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Applied Materials (AMAT)- Caris & Company Average » Buy
Reliance Steel (RS)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Post Properties (PPS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Oil States (OIS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Helmerich & Payne (HP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Alliance Data (ADS)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Edwards Lifesci (EW)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Vimicro (VIMC)- Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
Vimpel Comms (VIP)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
RiskMetrics (RMG)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
SAP AG (SAP)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Teekay Shipping (TK)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
General Maritime (GMR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Alexza Pharma (ALXA)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Goldman Sachs (GS)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Overseas Shipholding (OSG)- Citigroup Sell » Buy

Downgrades
Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)- Ardour Capital Buy » Accumulate
Xerium Tech (XRM)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Cash Systems (CKNN)- Barrington Research Outperform » Underperform
Nuvelo (NUVO)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
Intl Paper (IP)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Holly (HOC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Valero Energy (VLO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Frontier Oil (FTO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Tesoro (TSO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Western Refining (WNR)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Underperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Siemens AG (SI)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Siemens AG (SI)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Vornado Rlty Trust (VNO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
SL Green Rlty (SLG)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Telus (TU)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Northstar Realty (NRF)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Newcastle Investment (NCT)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Spectrum Pharma (SPPI)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Intl Paper (IP)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Directed Electronics (DEIX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
United Rentals (URI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Seacor Hldgs (CKH)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
American Railcar Industries (ARII)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
ViewPoint Financial (VPFG)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Leucadia Exercises Option on AmeriCredit

Leucadia (LUK) exercised call options on 3.25 million Americredit (ACF) shares on 3/14.

The options were purchased in January.

1. Reflects 26,086,440 shares of AmeriCredit common stock directly owned by Baldwin Enterprises, Inc. (“Baldwin”) and indirectly owned by Phlcorp, Inc. (“Phlcorp”) and Leucadia National Corporation (“Leucadia”) and 3,250,000 shares of AmeriCredit common stock directly owned by RCG Baldwin, L.P. (“RCG Baldwin”), as nominee for Baldwin, and indirectly owned by Baldwin, Phlcorp and Leucadia. Baldwin is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Phlcorp and Phlcorp is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Leucadia. Baldwin, the sole limited partner of RCG Baldwin, has decision making authority and pecuniary interest with respect to the shares of AmeriCredit common stock owned directly by RCG Baldwin pursuant to an agreement with RCG Baldwin’s general partner.
2. Call options directly owned by RCG Baldwin, as nominee for Baldwin, and indirectly owned by Baldwin, Phlcorp and Leucadia.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wedneday’s Picks
Jeff Macke urged investors to get out of gold – specifically, to sell the GLD (GLD) $96.5

Adobe’s (ADBE) $31.88 after-hours surge bodes well for Oracle (ORCL) $20.02 Guy Adami said.

Tim Seymour would short the FXE (FXE) $156.66 , which is a long play on the euro.

Pete Najarian is riding the explosion in refiners with Tesoro (TSO0 $29.56

Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Lehman (LEH) $31.75 close $46.49 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $126.73 Close $132.82 GAIN

Joe Terranova recommends Valero (VLO) $46.69 Close $50.06 GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks Tesoro (TSO) $27.16 is a buy. Close $29.42 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 18-13
Tim Seymore= 9-6
Guy Adami= 19-19
Pete Najarian= 18-16
Karen Finerman= 16-20-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Fed Cuts 75

Inflation is back in the statement….

Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: March 18, 2008
For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 2-1/4 percent.

Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, including measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred less aggressive action at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent.

Here is the link to the statement.

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Tuesday’s Links

A Cramer time-line on Bear, Google vs Apple, Race

You have to see this. There is a whole bunch of controversy over this and Adam is the first to nail it.

– The Google phone will outsell the iPhone

– Because we can’t admit what everyone know to be true.

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Goldman’s Results: World Not Ending

So, Goldman Sachs (GS) announced results today and it was bad news for the doomsayers.

The Results:
GS reported net income of $1.51 billion, or $3.23 a share, for the quarter ended Feb. 29, compared to $3.2 billion, or $6.67 a share last year. Revenue decreased 35% to $8.34 billion. Analysts estimates were for earnings of $2.58 a share on revenue of $7.47 billion.

Other numbers:
* Return on equity was 17%
* Trading and principal investments segment saw revenue decrease 46% because of credit and investment losses.
* Investment banking revenue dropped 32% because of a decline in debt underwriting
* Asset management unit recorded a 23% increase on higher fees.

Not great, but, better than expected. When you combine these results with those at Lehman (LEH), they make the Bear Sterns (BSC) situation look more like a management issue rather than a systemic event.

This is not to say that things are going to turn on a dime and begin to rise. It is also not to say there may be other, smaller institutions suffer (Ambac (ABK) ,MBIA (MBI)) and possibly fold. It is to say that a widespread banking run will not happen and because of that, the system will remain intact. Because of that, we now know there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

Now, where is the light? I think is is closer than it currently looks. Let’s not forget, the losses the banks are seeing are unrealized for the most part. This means they are writing down the value of a security because of an assumed market value of it, not because of a tangible deterioration of the assets performance. That is a huge point.

It means that when we can now value these instruments higher, earnings jump, fast.

In every financial “crisis” there is a sacrificial lamb. In this one it was Bear Sterns. Now that the Fed has opened the discount window to not only the banks but the brokers, the liquidity squeeze that destroyed Bear will not be repeated.

Now, poor management may take a smaller institution under, but if that happens, it will not be anywhere near the scale of a Bear Sterns.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS, None

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Value In Autos????

Some very big guns in the value investment world have been buying stocks in the auto sector. That means it is time to take a look.

In November, Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett disclosed a 13.98 million share stake in CarMax (KMX) valued at $284.3 million (9.6% of total). CarMax has 90 locations it sells mostly used autos from.

It also showed a new, 2.7 million share stake in Wabco Holdings Inc (WBC), a maker of braking and other vehicle control systems.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert has been very aggressive in adding to his AutoNation (AN) stake and still holds Autozone (AZO) shares. AutoNation is the behemoth of the bunch with 245 locations primarily in the Southeast US.

Leucadia National (LUK) recently agreed to a standstill after accumulating 30% of the outstanding shares of Amercredit (ACF), an auto loan servicing company. AmeriCredit’s focus is primarily in the Southwest US.

All are hovering around 52 week lows.

It should be noted that this is NOT an endorsement of the US auto industry via Ford (F) or GM (GM) as these are just terrible businesses due to legacy union costs.
They are stuck in a cost structure that dooms them. It is probably the only business the airlines can look at and say “at least we are not them”.

It is to say that American’s have to drive. It is also to say that despite the current housing environment, the auto loan business has, up until this point, held up much better. My thinking is that I can walk away from my home if I am stuck in a resetting mortgage that will break me and still rent an apartment. But, in most cases, I will still need a car to get back and forth to work from wherever I end up living.

Because of that, I am far less likely to let them take my car or walk away from it since once I do that, the odds of getting another one anytime soon in this environment is, well, minimal. It almost is a built in base for the industry.

I have a real hard time saying Buffett, Lampert and the boys at Leucadia are missing the boat on this one since since an investment with either in the last decade has crushed the market by a wide margin.

I will say that I am looking very closely at the sector an will most likely piggy back on something here.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, none

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Callaway Golf (ELY)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Aixtron (AIXG)- Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Hellenic Telecom (OTE)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Concur Tech (CNQR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Advanced Analogic Tech (AATI)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Ashland (ASH)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Nordic American Tanker (NAT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Photon Dynamics (PHTN)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
PepsiAmericas (PAS)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Dolbys Labs (DLB)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Infosys (INFY)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Nike (NKE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
CEMEX S.A. (CX)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Interface (IFSIA)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Hibbett Sporting (HIBB)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Brooke Credit (BRCR)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Sterling Construction (STRL)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Metabolix (MBLX)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Double Hull Tankers (DHT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Charles Schwab (SCHW)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Newcastle Investment (NCT)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Portugal Telecom (PT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)- UBS Buy » Neutral
InVesco (IVZ)- UBS Buy » Neutral
State Street (STT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Goldman Sachs (GS)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Lehman Brothers (LEH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bank of NY (BK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Coach (COH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Lehman (LEH0 $31.75

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $126.73

Joe Terranova recommends Valero (VLO) $46.69

Pete Najarian thinks Tesoro (TSO) $27.16 is a buy.

Monday’s Results

None

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 17-13
Tim Seymore= 9-6
Guy Adami= 18-19
Pete Najarian= 17-16
Karen Finerman= 16-20-1
Joe Terrenova= 0-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books