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Lampert’s Latest Sears Holdings Letter

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert released his latest shareholder letter. While much of is a recitation of results, there are clear signs into the companies direction.

It is going to become all about the brands:

First this:
“One of our most important resources is the great brands we own, in particular DieHard, Craftsman, Kenmore, and Lands’ End. All four of these brands have significant equity with customers and provide tremendous opportunity for value creation. To illustrate, let me discuss one of them, DieHard, in more detail. Based on brand recognition studies, DieHard leads in customer recognition among car battery brands by a wide margin, but it lags dramatically in market share. Why? We believe it is due to fewer points of distribution. As a proprietary brand, DieHard is only available in 900 Sears Auto Centers and 1,400 Kmart stores. Yet it is competing with other batteries that are available in thousands of locations across the country. Further, a car battery purchase is a duress purchase event, in which the customer is looking for the nearest, most convenient solution. Unfortunately, it is not always us, but there is an opportunity for us to rethink our brand distribution strategy to create value. “

Then:

“Our mission is to provide our customers with the products and services they want. And, we need to be prepared to supply them where and when our customers want. In many cases, that may not be exclusively through our stores. Instead, it could be online, via catalog, or possibly even through other retail outlets. We will now have a dedicated brand team who will manage our branded products – Kenmore, Craftsman, and DieHard, that way. Furthermore, we will have a Real Estate business that will act as an internal landlord, providing access to space and maximizing the value of that space over time. In order to be successful in the future we need to more quickly adapt to the changing marketplace and we believe that this structure will help us do that. We have begun the process of transforming the organization to this new model, but it will take some time to build the processes and information systems necessary to support the structure.”

There is more, including a record year that saw Land’s End post a 12% profit gain and others, but I wanted to get this out early. More to come later………

Read the full letter here:
Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD

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Owens Corning Reports Results

Owens Corning released results Wednesday and at first look, it was bad. If you read closer, you get a different picture.

The company said Q4 2007 EBIT from continuing operations was a loss of $46 million compared with a loss of $1 million for the same period in 2006.

But,

When reviewing the operating performance of the company with its Board of Directors and employees, management makes adjustments to net earnings, earnings before interest and taxes (“EBIT”) from continuing operations and diluted earnings per share. To calculate “adjusted earnings”, “adjusted EBIT” and “adjusted diluted earnings per share”, management excludes certain items from earnings before interest and taxes from continuing operations, including those related to the company’s prior Chapter 11
proceedings, employee emergence equity program, restructuring and other activities so as to improve comparability over time (the “comparability items”). As described more fully in the following financial schedules, such comparability items amounted to charges of $199 million, $122 million, $117 million, and $5 million in the Successor twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Combined twelve months ended December 31, 2006, the Successor two months ended December 31, 2006 and the Predecessor ten months ended October 31, 2006, respectively.

Great, what does that mean? There are still Chapter 11 items in current results. If we want a true picture of current operations excluding these items that will eventually dissipate, we want to look at these earnings.

In doing that we get results excluding comparability items, adjusted EBIT from continuing operations for Q4 of 2007 was $85 million compared with $137 million during the same period in 2006.

Full year earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from continuing operations for the full year ending Dec. 31, 2007, were $145 million compared with $407 million in fiscal 2006. Excluding comparability items (se Table 3), adjusted EBIT from continuing operations for 2007 was $344 million compared with $529 million during 2006, a decrease of 35%.

“Business results for 2007 were in line with our expectations,” said Mike Thaman, chairman and chief executive officer. “Owens Corning is performing well through the severe downturn in the U.S. housing market. We generated cash flow from operations of $182 million in 2007.”

Operational:
Composites are now 34% of sales and grew last year at 23%
Roofing & Asphalt sales fell 19%
Insulation sales fell 15%
Other Building Materials sales fell 20%

2008:
Expect EBIT to be at a minimum of $240 million assuming 1 million housing starts.
$100 million in cost savings due to integration.

Now, even if housing does not turn in 2008 (it very well may not) there are likely increases coming for OC. We have not had a hurricane of any significant in two years. 84% of the Roofing and 20% of the Insulations divisions sales are for repair and even in low grades storms, roof repair is job #1. We are due and I cannot remember the last time we went three years without a storm. One could say it has been a “perfect storm” of bad news for Owens (sorry).

All that being said, even if housing trudges along and only hits the 1 million units, I would expect OC to significantly improve on the $240 million they predict.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long OC

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Target’s Results….Questions

Target reported earnings Tuesday and they seemed to leave more questions than answers.

Target (TGT) Tuesday reported net earnings of $1,028 million for Q4 ended February 2, 2008, a thirteen-week period, compared with $1,119 million in the fourth quarter ended February 3, 2007, a fourteen-week period. Earnings per share in the fourth quarter decreased 4.7 percent to $1.23 from $1.29 in the same period a year ago. this despite the fact the company repurchased approximately 26.5 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $54.64, for a total investment of $1.45 billion in the quarter.

Monday I posted that Target’s unreasonable return policy was a main reason for people refraining from buying clothing and other items that are prone to be returned or exchanged. The flood of emails I received led me here and illustrate that this is becoming a large issue for Target. Now when the consumer feels pinched, they will watch every penny and take far fewer chances with their dollars. Buying items from Target with this policy now entails more risk than folks want to take.

Any correlation to results? While we heard Wal-Mart (WMT) being optimistic about clothing, Target has seen a dramatic drop in sales. Once the company’s strength, it has become a drag. It isn’t just the clothing sales loss that hurts. If people are not going there for clothing, they are also not buying all the ancillary items there either during the trip.

I listened to and then read the conference call and one thing stuck out. While management said it was “pleased” with women’s results in apparel and “disappointed” in men’s, it was hard to quantify. We know earnings fell despite the huge repurchase so are they “pleased” against lowered expectations? It seemed like they wanted to put the blame on toys (an easy scape goat with the lead issues) but it just does not add up.

They also said they expect 7% EPS growth in the current FY. That will essentially be done through additional repurchases. I expect those to be significant in this spring, perhaps $5 billion for the year.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, none

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
amer Italian Pasta (AITP)- DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Cott (COT)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Western Digital (WDC)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
Healthways (HWAY )- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
AXT Inc (AXTI)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Medarex (MEDX)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Brasil Telecom Part (BRP)- UBS Neutral » Buy
SuperGen (SUPG)- Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
Xilinx (XLNX)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Overseas Shipholding (OSG)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
Telefonica S.A. (TEF)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Take-Two (TTWO )- Janco Partners Buy » Mkt Perform
Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Cott COT (BMO)- Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
O2Micro (OIIM)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold $10
Greenbrier Comp (GBX)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Carter Holdings (CRI)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Autodesk (ADSK)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
SPSS Inc (SPSS)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Ceradyne (CRDN)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Orthofix (OFIX)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Golar LNG (GLNG)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
CollaGenex Pharm (CGPI)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
NovaGold Resources (NG )- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
K-Swiss (KSWS)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Negative
Bill Barrett (BBG)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Yingli Green Energy (YGE)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Solarfun Power (SOLF)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
JA Solar (JASO)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Trina Solar (TSL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Sell
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Quicksilver Resrcs (KWK)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
EOG Resources (EOG)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
SW Energy (SWN)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Golar LNG (GLNG)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Barrick Gold (ABX)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
CollaGenex Pharm (CGPI)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Wal-Mart (WMT) $51.44

Karen Finerman recommends Fannie Mae (FNM) $27.27

Pete Najarian thinks Cisco (CSCO) $24.95 is a buy.

Wednesday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Starbucks (SBUX) $19.06 Close $19.04 LOSS

Guy Adami prefers Baker Hughes (BHI) $71.11 Close $69.99 LOSS

Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $28.38 Close $28.26 LOSS

Pete Najarian thinks XTO Energy (XTO) $60.74 is a buy. Close $60.52 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 14-10
Tim Seymore= 5-4
Guy Adami= 13-14
Pete Najarian= 12-9
Karen Finerman= 13-12-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Leucadia Files 13-d on AmeriCredit

Leucadia (LUK) just disclosed in an SEC filing updated holdings in AmeriCredit (ACF)

From the filing:
“As of February 27, 2008, the Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own collectively an aggregate of 30,361,440 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 26.5% of the shares of Common Stock presently outstanding. All percentages in this Item 5 are based on 114,599,921 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of January 31, 2008, as set forth in the Company’s Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2007.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Harley Davidson Gets Partial Victory in India

Just two days after I posted on the specter of Harley Davidson (HOG) entering India, the Indian government answers.

While HOG has requested a reduction of the current tariffs to 10% and the ability to establish dealerships in the country, they got 1/2 of what they wanted.

After all, the bike is going to be imported by rich people. Let them pay duty,” an unnamed official said. “This means, instead of delivering its bikes to individual buyer, the company can appoint dealers in India,” the official said.

This is good news. Not “great” but still very good. Great would have been getting both. HOG now has the ability to establish a dealer network in the country and while it may not sell tens of thousands of bikes there, it will begin to establish a presence and the brand. Due to the tariffs it will be a luxury item but, given the income disparity in the region, it is more than possible any drag on sales will be minimal as the vast majority of the population would not have been able to afford the bikes anyway.

Given the two choices, this one must be considered the better result. Establishing a network in the country is far better long term. Once there they can continue to lobby for tariff reductions and having the bikes in showrooms will boost sales to a middle class that otherwise may not have considered one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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52 Week Low’s 2/27


(TSTY)- Tasty Baking Company
(TSRA)- Tessera Technologies Inc
(TSCM)- TheStreet.com, Inc
(TRXB)- Tronox Inc
(SOLD)- Housevalues Inc
(SMSI)- Smith Micro Software Inc
(SLRY)- Salary Com Inc
(SLE)- Sara Lee Corporation
(SIRF)- Sirf Technology Hldgs Inc
(NXTM)- Nxstage Medical Inc
(NVTL)- Novatel Wireless Inc
(NURO)- Neurometrix Inc
(NU)- Northeast Utilities
(NTRI)- Nutri Sys Inc New
(NT)- Nortel Networks Corp New
(DF0)-Dean Foods Co New
(CVTX)- CV Therapeutics Inc
(CSPI)- CSP Inc
(CSGS)- CSG Systems Internati …
(CRDN)- Ceradyne Inc

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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MBIA Still Whining About Ackman

I really could not beleive it when I first read it. In a letter to shareholders MBIA (MBI) Chairman & CEO Jay Brown actually penned the following

“But as the leading monoline, we are also a convenient and attractive target for self-interested parties such as Mr. William Ackman. Many of you have asked me in the past few days whether there is something personal between us. In actual fact we have many similarities. We are both extremely passionate in our beliefs and are persistent in overcoming all obstacles in terms of reaching our objectives. The real difference is that I am leading a regulated institution that provides security, jobs and peace of mind to tens of thousands of institutions and millions of individual investors. Mr. Ackman’s objective is less complex; he will stop at nothing to increase his already enormous personal profits as he systematically tries to destroy our franchise and our industry. His campaign against us has increased our cost of capital, but his intent to force a collapse has no chance to succeed.”

Let’s just forget that Ackman is giving 1/2 the profits to charity so this is not the shameless “self interest” thing Brown weeps of. Let’s also forget that Ackman first began predicting the current CDO situation in 2002. Let’s also forget that were it not for the self-serving bailout by the banks, MBIA and Ambac (ABK) would have indeed suffered the rating agencies downgrades and the very extinction Ackman predicted.

Now that we have put the actual events up to this point aside, aren’t facts a better defense to Ackman than essentially calling him names? Wouldn’t sitting there and pointing out the errors of his research that has been out there for a long time be more a effective way to rebut him? It would, but if Brown were to just look at numbers and profits and little things like that, he would find folks siding with Ackman in droves.

Is it any wonder to him that Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett only wanted 1/2 the business? The answer is the other half is junk..

Brown would have been better served to ignore Ackman, not sit there and pout about him.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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NetFlix Keeps Increasing Subscribers

Netflix (NFLX) updated expected results this mornings and for shareholders, the news was very good indeed.

Revised First Quarter-2008 Guidance:
— Ending subscribers of 8.16 million to 8.26 million, up from 7.85 million to 8.05 million
— Revenue of $324 million to $328 million, from $323 million to $328 million
— GAAP Net Income of $10 million to $14 million, from $9 million to $14 million
— GAAP EPS of $0.15 to $0.22 per diluted share, from $0.13 to $0.21 per diluted share

Revised Full Year 2008 Guidance:
— Ending subscribers of 8.9 million to 9.5 million, up from 8.4 million to 8.9 million
— Revenue of $1.345 billion to $1.385 billion, up from $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion
— GAAP Net Income of $75 million to $83 million, unchanged from prior guidance
— GAAP EPS of $1.18 to $1.30 per diluted share, up from $1.12 to $1.24 per diluted share

When you compare this to the $100 million loss expected at Blockbuster (BBI) for the year with no real plans to alter its path, can we call it?

It is all about convenience, making a special trip to the video store no longer qualifies. It used to be convenient but technology has made it an “extra trip” in already packed schedules.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday’s Links

NY Times, Common sense, Wheat, Unlocking iPhones,

– Hey, if the Dems lose in November, don’t blame the Times, they are doing their part for the cause…

– Is it just me or doesn’t everyone already know this?

– High Wheat prices, no more pigs… go figure

– It is as easy as a single click..

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Bernake Testimony

Here is today’s speech by Bernanke to Congress

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Julian Day Getting It Done at Radioshack

RadioShack (RSH) released results Tuesday and investors ough to be very pleased.

“The Shack” posted a 20% increase in Q4 net income as the retailer’s turnaround effort continues to take hold despite falling wireless-phone sales. Mostly selling accessories, batteries and other gadgets for wireless products, RSH said net income rose to $101 million, or 77 cents a share, from $84.5 million, or 62 cents a share, a year earlier. Net Income was favorably impacted by improved gross margin, a reduction in SG&A, and reduced interest expense when compared to the prior year.”Analysts” had expected 72 cents a share.

Revenue fell 6.4% to $1.36 billion as same-store sales dropped 6.7% on lower wireless and satellite-radio sales. In October, RadioShack predicted a “challenging” fourth quarter because of both weakened demand and competition. If this is “challenging” I would love to see “optimistic”.

CEO Julian Day, a former executive at Sears Holdings (SHLD) said, “I am delighted to announce that our team here at RadioShack once again produced strong improvement in our operating profit for the fourth quarter, and for the year as a whole. It is a testament to the hard work and devotion of everyone concerned, that this result was achieved against a background of difficult and uncertain economic conditions.”

Its cash balance increased $38 million at the end of the fourth quarter of 2007 to $510 million, driven by improved working capital management and cash generated from net income. It was partially offset by $150 million repayment of bonds in September, 2007, and $209 million of share repurchases during 2007.

The best numbers was that the chain generated $300.9 million in free cash flow through the twelve months of 2007 versus free cash flow of $189.9 million for the same period in 2006.

On a day that we see what bad management can do to a company (at Circuit City (CC)), the results at RadioShack (up 16% Tuesday) show us what good management can do.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, none

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Circuit City Shareholders May Get A Lifeline

Those still holding shares of decimated Circuit City (CC) may finally have a reason to be optimistic….maybe.

Mark J. Wattles disclosed plans to nominate his own slate of five directors at Circuit City Stores Inc., criticizing managers for failing to deliver a turnaround. Finally, a shareholder speaks up!!

In an inteview with the WSJ, “Wattles said he nominated the slate after being rebuffed in recent attempts to meet with Circuit City executives, whom he criticized for worsening the company’s financial picture. He said executives have “lost the faith” of employees and investors, and he expects an election of his slate would help lead to a new management team.”

Hallelujah!!!!!

Wattles said he is “in complete disagreement” with CEO Philip J. Schoonover’s appraisal of the chains situation. “The current CEO has been the president or CEO for three years now,” Wattles said. The company’s annual pretax earnings, once as high as $400 million, are now estimated at a loss of $100 million to $200 million for the fiscal year. Shareholders have lost 80% of their value in that timespan.

According to The Journal, Wattles also took Schoonover to task for what he said was a history of blaming past management and bad retail locations for the company’s problems. “The solution is not in changing real estate. The solution is changing the way they operate in existing real estate,” said Mr. Wattles.

In June of last year I said, “Should you buy CC now? I would stay away as long as current management is there.” This still holds true. Unless Wattles can get control of the board and make management changes, CC shareholders are still in trouble.

Now, can he take control of the Board, and asks Schoonover to “pursue other opportunities”, this company then becomes very interesting. I have said in the past “CC has appealing stores in good locations with a nice product mix, they are just abysmally run.”

Once Schoonover and his “vision” are gone. Shares become attractive. Once we know who will take his place and what the plan is, time to take a real close look.

It will be a log time before CC takes on Best Buy (BBY) or even Wal-Mart (WMT) or RadioShack (RSK) for consumers electronics shopping preference. But, that does not mean they cannot be profitable and make new shareholders very happy.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long WMT, None

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Kendle (KNDL)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
EMC Corp (EMC)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
AthenaHealth (ATHN)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Kendle (KNDL)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Brinks (BCO)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Home Inns (HMIN )- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
MasterCard (MA)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Repsol SA (REP)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Occidental Petro (OXY)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
OmniVision (OVTI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Rite Aid (RAD)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Quantum DLT (QTM)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Marketaxess (MKTX)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Maguire Properties (MPG)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Hutchinson (HTCH)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
PG&E (PCG)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
NSTAR (NST)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Demandtec (DMAN)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Strong Buy
Teradyne (TER)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
World Wrestling (WWE)- B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral
Granite City Food & Brewery (GCFB)- Feltl & Co. Strong Buy » Hold
Steel Dynamics (STLD)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Gerdau AmeriSteel (GNA)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Ryder System (R)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Del Monte (DLM)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Automatic Data (ADP)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Paychex (PAYX)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Cott COT (UBS)- Buy » Neutral

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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