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Target Pushing Customers Away

For those of you looking for a reason for the recent shift in consumer sentiment from Target (TGT) to Wal-Mart (WMT), here is a big one.

So, the kids had a birthday recently and true to form, we had a party for their friends at school and one for family. In short, lots of very nice gifts. That being said, the odds of not getting a gift that you may already have or having every piece of clothing fit right is well, very, very low.

So we got an item of clothing that did not fit just right and I made the trip to Target Sunday to exchange them for a pair that fit better because they were great and the kids loved them. I did not try to return them for cash, but to simply exchange them for another pair. Simple, right???? Not so fast…

It would seem that I have had the audacity to be there twice in the 12 months without a receipt to return items. Apparently once I have done this, I am not allowed any more!! I have been “blacklisted” at Target..

Now, I have three kids and a wife. That means 6 kids birthdays (one school and one family for each), two parents birthdays, a fathers day and a mothers day, Easter, and Christmas etc… What are the odds that for every one of those events every gift will not be a duplicate and have a receipt and fit properly?

Wondering of this was a retailing trend, I drove across the street to the Wal-Mart. I took the clothing in and asked the question, “I have no receipt for these, can I exchange them?”. I was told with a license I could but for store credit only. No problem, that was all I wanted. Now, here comes the big one.

“How many times can I do this?” I asked.
“What do you mean?”, the girl asked?
“Is there a limit?” I said
“Oh”, she giggled, “were you just at Target?”.

I replied yes and she said that she gets people complaining all the time about Target’s policy. I was informed that if my “returns” were excessive “like once a week” it would get flagged but other than that, no limit. I know this is true because I have been there to do an exchange several times in the past year.

So, why would I shop at Target now? If I lose the receipt (or do not get one in the case of a gift) and have to return an item, I am stuck. I cannot be the only person looking at this scenario saying to myself, see ya’ later Target. I am also more than sure countless other people have run into the same situation. Here is the best part. I asked the girl “when am I off probation?” and she could not tell me. The system just has me blocked out.

Could there me a more misguided policy? I mean really…. I just will not shop there anymore for us OR for presents for the dozens or birthday parties and countless Christmas gifts we buy for other people. If I buy something for someone, I want them to be able the enjoy it. If I want aspirin, I may go there but if it is clothing or any item I am not 100% sure of its accuracy, no way.

Quick phone calls to Sears (SHLD), Kmart (SHLD),Kohl’s (KSS), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) and JC Penny (JCP) revealed no “two return” policy according to the folks I spoke too.

Target has said recently that apparel sales, once its strength have weakened. If they are looking for an answer, they now have it.

Oh yea.. while at Wal-Mart we bought the “Floor Mate” cleaner we have been wanting, Doritos for the hockey game today and hamster bedding for “Digger” the schools hamster we babysat over winter break. The total bill? $145 that would have gone to Target has they just exchanged $5 worth of clothing. Insane. Add this to the additional sales they will not see this year because of this return policy and is it any wonder they are suffering?

Target releases earnings Tuesday, lets see if the negative trend continues…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Nalco (NLC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
MacQuarie Infrastructure (MIC)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Innovative Solutions (ISSC)- Northland Securities Under Perform » Market Perform
Bristow Group (BRS)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
DIRECTV (DTV)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
DCP Midstream (DPM)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Imclone (IMCL)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
American Equity Investment Life (AEL)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Discovery (DISCA)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Verenium (VRNM)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Williams Cos (WMB)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Asbury Automotive (ABG)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Kilroy Realty (KRC)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Northeast Utilities (NU)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Trans1 (TSON)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

Downgrades
eTelecare (ETEL)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
ChoicePoint (CPS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Underperform
NICOR (GAS)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
BankFinancial (BFIN)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
MDS Inc (MDZ)- Scotia Capital Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform $29 » $21
ChoicePoint (CPS)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Utd Nat Foods (UNFI)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Universal Truckload Services (UACL)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
LTC Properties (LTC)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Sovereign Banc (SOV)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Barrick Gold (ABX)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Kinross Gold (KGC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
K-Swiss (KSWS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Meadowbrook Ins (MIG)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy
Movado Group (MOV)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Allied Healthcare (AHCI)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Univ Elec (UEIC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
BioMed Realty (BMR)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Vital Images (VTAL)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Gilead Sciences (GILD)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
ChoicePoint (CPS)- GARP Research Buy » Neutral

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Disney (DIS) $32.57

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $34.33

Karen Finerman recommends Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.42

Tim Seymour thinks Home (HXM) $58.81 is a buy.

Friday’s Results
The enthusiasm for Starbucks (SBUX) $17.83 is gone, Jeff Macke said. That means it’s time to buy. Close $18.25 GAIN

Guy Adami would take the risky trade and buy Genentech (DNA) $71.75 before the Avastin decision comes down. Close $71.60 LOSS

Karen Finerman’s still playing defense with Altria (MO) $73.39 Close $73.60 GAIN

Tim Seymour would take this opportunity to sell Stillwater Mining (SWC) $18.22 which is up 100% over the last month. Close $18.90 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 13-9
Tim Seymore= 4-4
Guy Adami= 12-13
Pete Najarian= 12-8
Karen Finerman= 13-10-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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This Week’s Insider Buys


Autonation Inc (AN)= $ 9,778,491
General Growth Properties Inc (GGP)= $ 6,088,897
Opko Health Inc (OPK) = $5,695,800
Align Technology Inc (ALGN )= $3,882,138
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)= $ 3,818,759
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)= $3,442,914
Amicus Therapeutics Inc (FOLD) = $3,169,470
Fidelity National Info Services Inc Ga (FIS)= $2,080,400
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) = $2,056,643
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)= $ 1,526,544

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Borders New Store "Exceeding Expectations"

Borders (BGP) is “thrilled” with the response to its new concept store in Michigan.

“It’s running substantially ahead of our (sales) plans,” CEO George Jones said shortly after the 10 a.m. ribbon-cutting ceremony, which marked the grand opening of the nearly 29,000-square-foot store on Lohr Road, Ann Arbor.

“We are absolutely thrilled with the reaction we’re getting from customers, and that’s what it’s all about,” he said.

Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman recently upped his stake to over 25%, making Borders worth a very close look.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Ackman Podcast on MBIA and Ambac

Hey, listen to this, Ackman explains his recent proposal regarding both Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI). It is the best explanation yet..

Listen to it here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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The Week’s Most Popular Posts at VIN

Here are the top stories of the week at Value Investing News

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Lampert Buys More AutoNation.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert disclosed Friday that through his RBS Partners hedge fund he added an additional 1,148,900 shares of AutoNation (AN) on 2/21 at prices between $15.10 and $15.30 a share.

This brings his total ownership through RBS and other affiliates to 34.1% of the total shares outstanding.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD, None

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Leucadia Adds More AmeriCredit shares

It seems when ever shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) hit $13 or below, Leucadia (LUK) steps up to the buying window..

Leucadia disclosed late Friday that on 2/21, they purchased an additional 1 million shares at $12.99 each. This brings their total ownership to (through Leucadia and their affiliates) 29,661,440 shares or just over 25% of the total outstanding.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Friday’s Links

Selling puts, Patience, Getting “Cramered”

– I still say this is the best way to buy a stock…

– Perhaps an investors best friend

– Check this out….. people who have followed CNBC’s Jim Cramer and got burned now have a place to vent…. igotcramered.com

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RIMM "Not Seeing Slowdown"

Research in Motion (RIMM) released updates subscriber growth and unlike Apple (AAPL), they are not seeing a slowdown.

RIM now expects net subscriber account additions for Q4 to be approximately 15-20% higher than the 1.82 million net subscriber account additions forecasted by RIM on December 20, 2007. The total BlackBerry® subscriber account base is expected to be approximately 14 million at the end of the quarter.

“BlackBerry smartphones proved to be a big hit throughout the holiday selling season and we’re pleased to see RIM’s business momentum continuing in the new year,” said Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO at RIM. “The seasonal slowdown in net subscriber account additions that we expected in the new year did not occur and our focused execution with partners has continued to produce strong results within both enterprise and consumer segments.”

While Apple’s recent cutback in orders was seen as a “seasonal” cutback by Apple supporters, and not a sign of slowing sales, what can we now make of RIMM’s results?

Well, we now know people are still clamoring to buying smarts phone, just not iPhones. A 20% increase over estimates is massive. The reason? I can get a Blackberry Pearl for $99 from almost all wireless carriers. Before the iPhone was even released I said “lower the price to $299 and you may have something, a $599 phone will not gain mass acceptance no matter what it does.”

Now rumors are out that just might be happening. It would be the second price drop on the phone in less than a year (8 months).

Jobs missed the market on this one. The iPod was unlike any other device at the time it was introduced and thus the reason for its price in-elasticity. Apple was able the charge “less for less” (lower prices were only had on lower memory products) rather than giving customers more for a lower price in order to keep pace with competition.
Now that cell phone are beginning to become customers music players, we are noticing price drops in iPods.

The iPhone is unique but its features are had by many other devices at a fraction of the price. Now, one can argue all day about the intricacies of those features and whose are better but for the vast majority of people, those intricacies are irrelevant, price is not. In a slowing economy, people will choose price for a commodity like device. Based on the results, even the most ardent Apple supporters must admit this. The only other option is that consumers feel the Blackberry is a superior product and thus the reason for diverging sales trends.

Just watching local TV one would witness a huge push by Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S) in their Blackberry promotions. Even AT&T (T) is sending me mailers pushing the Blackberry. The most common price is the $99 for a Pearl.

An Apple price drop to $299 is confirmation of the above. The thing is, RIMM is packing more and more into its $99 and $199 models. $299 may not be enough for Apple, they may to go lower…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Sold Apple $280 calls in Jan. , None

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MBIA Dismisses Ackman: Got A Better Idea?

MBIA (MBI) immediately dismissed Bill Ackman’s plan for them yesterday after barely a cursory view.

“Like Mr. Ackman’s open-source model, his statements in the media and the barrage of letters he has sent to regulators and the rating agencies — which contain half truths, innuendo and faulty analysis — this proposal is simply a continuation of Mr. Ackman’s campaign to profit from his short positions and credit default swaps in the bond insurance industry,” MBIA said.

“Our preference, like the regulators, continues to be finding a solution that would be in the best interest of all policyholders,” MBIA said.

Here is where the hypocrisy comes in. In the Wall St. Journal MBIA indicated it agrees with a spokesman for the New York insurance department who said Mr. Ackman’s proposal would split the company and likely lead to a substantial downgrade for the structured side.

Splitting bond insurers into two sectors — one focused on lower-risk municipal bonds and another to handle higher-risk collateralized debt obligations — allows shareholders of the lower-risk holding company to benefit while holders of the CDOs suffer.

Thus the dismissal of Ackmans plan. It should be noted this was probably done before it was read but that is another issue.

Here is the rub. Later is the same article it is noted that MBIA Chief Executive Joseph W. Brown Jr, upon returning to the the CEO post, vowed to work with regulators to restore confidence in the company. He also said he would consider splitting the company.

Now, on one hand we have the company coming out and dismissing Ackman because his proposal would spit the company then we have the CEO coming out and saying he would consider that very split idea.

The bottom line is they have no plan. What they are waiting for is a State or Federal bailout. They have been “talking” to insurance regulators for months now and nothing has been forthcoming from them. There has been no plan, only stonewalling.

They have dismissed plans from Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett and now Bill Ackman. Wilbur Ross has stated he was interested in investing in them but talks with management have gone nowhere.

Here is the thing. Ackman, Buffett and Ross are all self made billionaires (maybe not yet for Ackman) and all are obviously smarter than those in charge of the now failing bond insurers. The fact that they cannot get anywhere with management ought to be a sign… a bad one..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
LoJack (LOJN)- Needham & Co Hold » Buy $17
JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)- Needham & Co Hold » Buy $38
CNET (CNET)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Platinum Underwriters (PTP)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Gold Fields (GFI)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Allscripts (MDRX)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Energizer (ENR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Garmin (GRMN)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Charlotte Russe (CHIC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Stewart Info (STC)- Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Brandywine Realty (BDN)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy

Downgrades
ArthroCare (ARTC)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
VASCO Data Security (VDSI)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
McCormick & Schmick’s (MSSR)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
PetMed Express (PETS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
SunTrust Banks (STI)- Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Emageon (EMAG)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Favrille (FVRL)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Target (TGT)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
BP (BP)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Portugal Telecom (PT)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
BostonPrivate Fin (BPFH)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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CNET’s "Macalope": Is That The Best You Got?

So, now it is CNET taking swipes at yours truly for having the audacity to doubt all things Apple (AAPL). This one is priceless…..lets delve into it..

First the post. If you do not mind name calling and bizarre analogies, read it.

So, lets address it….

The first seven paragraphs dissect and mock the following sentence of mine. “The latest estimates have “unlocked” iPhones costing Apple over $1 billion in lost revenue the next 3 years.”

He then says “Wow! $1 billion sounds like a lot. How did you come up with that number, Todd?” He then cherry picks sentences from the post to make the math seem impossible.

Where did the number come from? Apparently he has never heard of these little publications called the New York Times, or CNN or MSN Money? Too bad because had he even attempted to read them, he would have found the sources of the numbers and save a whole lot of typing and embarrassment. It is unfortunate but he based the whole article (rant) on the flawed assumption I made the number up.

Let’s move on:

He then says. “Just the other day the lovely and talented Tom Krazit pointed to a report indicating there are 400,000 unlocked iPhones in China alone. Why does Apple not have a deal in China? Because it’s trying to do something craaaazy like negotiate one of them sweet revenue sharing schemes, that’s why.”

Well, or maybe China mobile has figured they can put 400,000 iPhones on their network without paying Apple a dime, why negotiate a deal and start paying them now? US companies have been complaining about Chinese technological piracy for decades…is Apple the next to chime in?

Then he moves on to question (mock) my thought that Apple’s cutting back on component orders can only mean sales are going to slow. Timing is everything in life and had he waited 2 more days to post, he would have again saved himself the inevitable embarrassment of this being affirmed on Thursday. To quote: “Apple has slashed its 2008 NAND order forecast significantly and has informed suppliers that its demand growth will slow in 2008.” OUCH…

I know this is getting redundant but let’s go to the next one:

He then goes into some wandering diatribe about Research in Motion (RIMM) or Google (GOOG) coming out with new products somehow does not matter or should be dismissed? I can’t figure out what the point was. Does he really think that RIMM coming out with a touch screen phone or a Google product will not increase competition in the space? He gets into a whole bunch of melodrama claiming Jobs “ought not get out of bed” due to the competition.

Again, while I don’t get that I do think if you are under the impression that either of the two competitors adding products to the mix will not affect sales, well, time to go back to Econ 101.

Market share:

Not satisfied he goes into another well conceived deception. I have repeatedly said that RIMM is the clear leader in smart phone sales with Apple being #2. He trots out a “global” market share report that says Nokia (NOK) is #1, RIMM #2 and Apple #3, as of this proves anything. Here is the thing. Apple is not really a “global” seller yet of the phones. All of my statement have taken that into account and in my earlier posts on the iPhone, Apple had not sold a single phone internationally.

What to think? Let just go to “Apple Insider“. “The iPhone’s 28 percent share placed it second in the US market behind only RIM’s with 41 percent share, and well ahead of Palm, whose 9 percent share placed it a distant third. Case closed? Like I said, Apple is #2 to RIMM. Comparing Apple sales that until recently were only in the US would have been unfair. The irony here is that had I done a post that claimed Apple was a distant third in market share, I am sure his response would have been to attack me for an unfair comparison. I can see it now, “How can Mr. Sullivan have the audacity to compare Apple to global players when they do not even sell phones globally!!”

Maybe he has some study of smartphone sales in Jakarta he wants to trot out to try to prove me wrong?

He then ends with this one: “Exclusivity is a condition for the revenue sharing agreement. That’s how Apple gets the revenue sharing. You can’t say Apple’s somehow foregoing $1 billion in revenue sharing that it could never possibly get.”

ERRR wrong answer. All cell providers have revenue share agreements. They have them with software developers, providers, wireless companies etc.. it is the way the industry functions. It is the degree of the revenue share that dictates the exclusivity in Apple’s case.

It is the unlocked phones that are the forgone revenue (currently estimated at over 25% of all iPhones sold). The argument is that were the exclusive agreements not there, many more phones would be sold, and even at lower revenue share, the profits would be greater (a smaller piece of a much, much larger pie thing). Oh yea.. .the 25%? It is not my number. I gave you the link this time so you do not have to do any work to look it up or run the risk of another train wreck post .

One last thing… he has not mentioned in any of his “posts” that my call before the first phone was sold on the need to drop the price of it was DEAD ON….

Let’s remember together Mac, “drop the price to $299 and you will have something, a $599 phone will not sell no matter what it does” (May, 2007). Aren’t there rumors out there that this is exactly what is happening now after the $200 price drop some 90 days after its debut??

Better luck next time kiddo…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Sold Apple July $280 calls in January, None in others

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Links
The enthusiasm for Starbucks (SBUX) $17.83 is gone, Jeff Macke said. That means it’s time to buy.

Guy Adami would take the risky trade and buy Genentech (DNA) $71.75 before the Avastin decision comes down.

Karen Finerman’s still playing defense with Altria (MO) $73.39

Tim Seymour would take this opportunity to sell Stillwater Mining (SWC) $18.22 which is up 100% over the last month.

Thurday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Hasbro (HAS) $27.39 Close $27.72 LOSS

Guy Adami prefers GameStop (GME) $45.74 Close $45.99 GAIN

Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $28.22 Close $28.10 LOSS

Tim Seymour suggests investors short emerging markets via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (EEM) $141.33 Close $139.54 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 12-9
Tim Seymore= 3-4
Guy Adami= 12-12
Pete Najarian= 12-8
Karen Finerman= 12-10-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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