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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Take-Two (TTWO)- Sterne Agee Sell » Hold
CoStar Group (CSGP)- Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Semgroup Energy (SGLP)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Citizens Rep Bancorp (CRBC)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Lloyds TSB plc (LYG)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Mechel Steel (MTL)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
ESS Tech (ESST)- Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
YUM! Brands (YUM)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Hain Celestial (HAIN)- UBS Neutral » Buy
DTS (DTSI)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Genentech (DNA)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform

Downgrades
Roper Inds (ROP)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell
Calgon Carbon (CCC)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Sunstone Hotel (SHO)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
LaSalle Hotel (LHO)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
MEMC Elec (WFR)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Syntel (SYNT)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Medicure (MCU)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Glimcher Realty (GRT)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR)- Soleil Hold » Sell
SPX Corp (SPW)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Motorola (MOT)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Borg Warner (BWA)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
General Motors (GM)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Smith Micro Software (SMSI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Peabody Energy (BTU)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)- UBS Buy » Neutral
James River Coal (JRCC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
New York Times (NYT)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks

None

Monday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Disney (DIS) $32.57 Close $32.89 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $34.33 Close $34.72 GAIN

Karen Finerman recommends Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.42 Close $28.13 LOSS

Tim Seymour thinks Home (HXM) $58.81 is a buy. Close $60.07 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 14-9
Tim Seymore= 5-4
Guy Adami= 13-13
Pete Najarian= 12-8
Karen Finerman= 13-11-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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52 Week Low’s 2/25


(XRIT)- X-Rite Incorporated
(XLPRX)- Xl Cap Ltd
(WSC)- Wesco Financial Corpo …
(WPO)- The Washington Post C …
(WPL)- W.P. Stewart & Co. Ltd.
(WMK)- Weis Markets, Inc
(WIND)- Wind River Systems Inc
(USM)- United States Cellula …
(UNFI)- United Natural Foods Inc
(UFS)- Domtar Corp
(TZOO)- Travelzoo Inc
(TWPG)- Thomas Weisel Partner …
(SLRY)- Salary Com Inc
(SLE)- Sara Lee Corporation
(SIRF)- Sirf Technology Hldgs Inc
(DF)- Dean Foods Co New
(CSPI)- CSP Inc
(CSHB)- Community Shores Bank …
(COT)- Cott Corp Que
(AVR)- Aventine Renewable Energy
(ANAD)- ANADIGICS Inc

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Stock Masters Cash Out

Master Picks subscribers, today were told to sell Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) and take the 3 month 69% gain, congratulations for those of you who held on. We’ll be cashing out TTWO from our current portfolio.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Boone Talks About Energy Policy

Boone makes more sense than anything I have heard any Senator or Congressman say in two decades on the subject.

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Monday’s Links

Citi, Crox, DOW, Goldman

– Part 2 in Chad Brand’s Citi analysis.

– Crox at $28? The Master’s think that’s a Crock

– Looks like the MSM is finally recognizing what Dow Chemical is doing

– Goldman Sachs want your distressed mortgage debt..

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Whitney Tilson on FOX Biz Talks About Sears

Whitney talks about what to look for in the current environment.

Frannie Mae (FMN), Freddie Mac (FRE), Merrill Lynch (MER), Sears Holdings (SHLD)and Target (TGT) are discussed.

Whitney says the “break up” value of Sears is $250 a share. He goes into good detail on it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None

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Whole Foods: Different Year, Same Story

After reading about Whole Foods (WFMI) recent quarter, I revisited a post I did on the subject last May.

In it I said “Here is an equation that does not work for me. Paying 32 times earnings for a company who, if it hits the high end of analyst estimates, will grow 9.4% this year and maybe 17% next. When you consider this company has missed the last three quarters estimates, and four of the past 6, one has to wonder what investors are thinking.”

Well, things are currently worse than at that time and investors are still paying 30 times this years earnings that, far from only increasing the 9% anticipated in May of 2007 are now declining.

Whole Foods in 2008 will most likely finish its second consecutive year of declining results. In the recent earnings call CEO John Mackey took time out from pumping his stock on Yahoo (YHOO) message boards to affirm that even with the estimated impact of the Wild Oats acquisition excluded, adjusted net income was $51 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.36 vs. 38 last year.

Read the conference call. I haven’t seen a call in a long time that went so far to avoid the word “earnings”. Macke focused extensively on sales. They even went as far to create a new metric to measure earnings, EBITANCE or earnings before interest, taxes and non-cash expenses.

Here is the thing. It really does not matter what you want to try to do to slice earnings, the only thing that matters is what drops to the bottom line. Unfortunately, even if we subtract the cost of the wild Oats merger, that number is falling.

The stock now sits just above its 52 week low and is still trading at an excessive premium to earnings. With organic food being found at about every grocer including club stores like Costco (COST), BJ’s (BJ) and Wal-Mart’s (WMT) Sam’s Club, a pinched consumer is far less likely to visit Macke’s locations.

The stock is down about 10% from my initial post and I cannot see any reason to think there is any upside in shares anytime soon.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Wal-Mart, None

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Target Pushing Customers Away

For those of you looking for a reason for the recent shift in consumer sentiment from Target (TGT) to Wal-Mart (WMT), here is a big one.

So, the kids had a birthday recently and true to form, we had a party for their friends at school and one for family. In short, lots of very nice gifts. That being said, the odds of not getting a gift that you may already have or having every piece of clothing fit right is well, very, very low.

So we got an item of clothing that did not fit just right and I made the trip to Target Sunday to exchange them for a pair that fit better because they were great and the kids loved them. I did not try to return them for cash, but to simply exchange them for another pair. Simple, right???? Not so fast…

It would seem that I have had the audacity to be there twice in the 12 months without a receipt to return items. Apparently once I have done this, I am not allowed any more!! I have been “blacklisted” at Target..

Now, I have three kids and a wife. That means 6 kids birthdays (one school and one family for each), two parents birthdays, a fathers day and a mothers day, Easter, and Christmas etc… What are the odds that for every one of those events every gift will not be a duplicate and have a receipt and fit properly?

Wondering of this was a retailing trend, I drove across the street to the Wal-Mart. I took the clothing in and asked the question, “I have no receipt for these, can I exchange them?”. I was told with a license I could but for store credit only. No problem, that was all I wanted. Now, here comes the big one.

“How many times can I do this?” I asked.
“What do you mean?”, the girl asked?
“Is there a limit?” I said
“Oh”, she giggled, “were you just at Target?”.

I replied yes and she said that she gets people complaining all the time about Target’s policy. I was informed that if my “returns” were excessive “like once a week” it would get flagged but other than that, no limit. I know this is true because I have been there to do an exchange several times in the past year.

So, why would I shop at Target now? If I lose the receipt (or do not get one in the case of a gift) and have to return an item, I am stuck. I cannot be the only person looking at this scenario saying to myself, see ya’ later Target. I am also more than sure countless other people have run into the same situation. Here is the best part. I asked the girl “when am I off probation?” and she could not tell me. The system just has me blocked out.

Could there me a more misguided policy? I mean really…. I just will not shop there anymore for us OR for presents for the dozens or birthday parties and countless Christmas gifts we buy for other people. If I buy something for someone, I want them to be able the enjoy it. If I want aspirin, I may go there but if it is clothing or any item I am not 100% sure of its accuracy, no way.

Quick phone calls to Sears (SHLD), Kmart (SHLD),Kohl’s (KSS), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) and JC Penny (JCP) revealed no “two return” policy according to the folks I spoke too.

Target has said recently that apparel sales, once its strength have weakened. If they are looking for an answer, they now have it.

Oh yea.. while at Wal-Mart we bought the “Floor Mate” cleaner we have been wanting, Doritos for the hockey game today and hamster bedding for “Digger” the schools hamster we babysat over winter break. The total bill? $145 that would have gone to Target has they just exchanged $5 worth of clothing. Insane. Add this to the additional sales they will not see this year because of this return policy and is it any wonder they are suffering?

Target releases earnings Tuesday, lets see if the negative trend continues…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Nalco (NLC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
MacQuarie Infrastructure (MIC)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Innovative Solutions (ISSC)- Northland Securities Under Perform » Market Perform
Bristow Group (BRS)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
DIRECTV (DTV)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
DCP Midstream (DPM)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Imclone (IMCL)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
American Equity Investment Life (AEL)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Discovery (DISCA)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Verenium (VRNM)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Williams Cos (WMB)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Asbury Automotive (ABG)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Kilroy Realty (KRC)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Northeast Utilities (NU)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Trans1 (TSON)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

Downgrades
eTelecare (ETEL)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
ChoicePoint (CPS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Underperform
NICOR (GAS)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
BankFinancial (BFIN)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
MDS Inc (MDZ)- Scotia Capital Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform $29 » $21
ChoicePoint (CPS)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Utd Nat Foods (UNFI)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Universal Truckload Services (UACL)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
LTC Properties (LTC)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Sovereign Banc (SOV)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Barrick Gold (ABX)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Kinross Gold (KGC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
K-Swiss (KSWS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Meadowbrook Ins (MIG)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy
Movado Group (MOV)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Allied Healthcare (AHCI)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Univ Elec (UEIC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
BioMed Realty (BMR)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Vital Images (VTAL)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Gilead Sciences (GILD)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
ChoicePoint (CPS)- GARP Research Buy » Neutral

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Disney (DIS) $32.57

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $34.33

Karen Finerman recommends Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.42

Tim Seymour thinks Home (HXM) $58.81 is a buy.

Friday’s Results
The enthusiasm for Starbucks (SBUX) $17.83 is gone, Jeff Macke said. That means it’s time to buy. Close $18.25 GAIN

Guy Adami would take the risky trade and buy Genentech (DNA) $71.75 before the Avastin decision comes down. Close $71.60 LOSS

Karen Finerman’s still playing defense with Altria (MO) $73.39 Close $73.60 GAIN

Tim Seymour would take this opportunity to sell Stillwater Mining (SWC) $18.22 which is up 100% over the last month. Close $18.90 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 13-9
Tim Seymore= 4-4
Guy Adami= 12-13
Pete Najarian= 12-8
Karen Finerman= 13-10-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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This Week’s Insider Buys


Autonation Inc (AN)= $ 9,778,491
General Growth Properties Inc (GGP)= $ 6,088,897
Opko Health Inc (OPK) = $5,695,800
Align Technology Inc (ALGN )= $3,882,138
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)= $ 3,818,759
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)= $3,442,914
Amicus Therapeutics Inc (FOLD) = $3,169,470
Fidelity National Info Services Inc Ga (FIS)= $2,080,400
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) = $2,056,643
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)= $ 1,526,544

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Borders New Store "Exceeding Expectations"

Borders (BGP) is “thrilled” with the response to its new concept store in Michigan.

“It’s running substantially ahead of our (sales) plans,” CEO George Jones said shortly after the 10 a.m. ribbon-cutting ceremony, which marked the grand opening of the nearly 29,000-square-foot store on Lohr Road, Ann Arbor.

“We are absolutely thrilled with the reaction we’re getting from customers, and that’s what it’s all about,” he said.

Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman recently upped his stake to over 25%, making Borders worth a very close look.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Ackman Podcast on MBIA and Ambac

Hey, listen to this, Ackman explains his recent proposal regarding both Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI). It is the best explanation yet..

Listen to it here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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The Week’s Most Popular Posts at VIN

Here are the top stories of the week at Value Investing News

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