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Is ADM in Raul’s Rolodex?

Research reports have Cuba holding the raw materials to make 2 to 3 billion gallons of ethanol a year. The problem? They lack the capital to make it happen.

Either of these amounts would vault the tiny nation into 3rd place on the global stage in production of the biofuel. Now, we know Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) tried to enter the Cuban market in the mid 1990’s but their advances were shunned by Raul’s brother, Fidel.

Rumors are that Raul in a much more pragmatic person that Fidel. His interests lie more in leaving a legacy of prosperity behind for “his people” that spreading “la revolucion”. Fidel has claimed biofuels hurt “poor people” around the globe and thus has hampered production progress in Cuba. His argument, unfortunately for him, is more suited to corn ethanol, not the sugar cane ethanol his country would produce and profit handsomely from.

Cuba has been improving ethanol facilities in the nation but even they admit they are 4 or 5 years away from producing amounts sufficient to power cars.

Could there be any better partner for the nation that the worlds largest producer of the fuel? ADM is able to provide the nation a “plant to market” solution for the fuel.

Cuba has already allowed private investment albeit on a limited scale in its tourism industry in order to accelerate its proliferation. There is no reason for Raul to resist the same in his energy sector.

Perhaps this is why we have not heard anything from ADM about constant rumors they are entering the Brazilian ethanol market? Why go there when they can stay closer to home..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM

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Wal-Mart’s Results: Nice

Wal-Mart (WMT) reported results Tuesday and they did not disappoint.

The Numbers:
Net sales for Q4 of fiscal year 2008 were $106.269 billion, an increase of 8.3% over Q4 of fiscal year 2007. Income from continuing operations for the quarter was $4.096 billion, an increase of 4% from $3.940 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2007.

Diluted EPS from continuing operations for Q4 of fiscal year 2008 were $1.02, up 7.4% from $0.95 per share in the same prior year quarter, including a net charge of approximately $0.02 per share for certain items this year.

Net sales for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2008 were $374.526 billion, an increase of 8.6% over fiscal year 2007. Income from continuing operations for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2008 increased 5.8% to $12.884 billion, up from $12.178 billion in the prior year. Diluted EPS from continuing operations for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2008 were $3.16, up 8.2% from $2.92 in the prior year.

The Company expects diluted earnings per share from continuing operations to be between $0.70 and $0.74 for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009, and between $3.30 and $3.43 for the full fiscal year 2009 (4% to 8.5% growth).

Hard to find something not to like there. The real key is that International Segment operating profits have risen from 21% to 23% of the company’s total. They grew at 11.8% for the year and 14% for Q4. At this pace, Wal-Mart will be 50/50 domestic and international profits in 6 to 8 years.

Wal-Mart ended the year with $5.5 billion in cash after buying back $7.691 billion in stock during the year. That means $2.412 billion was repurchased in Q4. Monday I said “anything less than $2.5 billion would be disappointing”. While not thrilled, it is hard to be upset when they basically nailed the number given to overall results.

Wal-Mart is excelling in a dismal operating environment. They are gaining customers from Target (TGT), buying back shares at decade low prices, plowing money into rapidly growing international operations and doing a much needed make-over on domestic ones. The results are showing up on the bottom line now for investors.

Whenever you have a company improving results in an environment that sees its competition and industry faltering, it is a good idea to take a real close look. When the industry does turn (they always do) what you then have is a much stronger position in it. Macro conditions will then dictate operational improvements and with that stronger position, the company’s performance ought to exceed that of the group.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, None

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Downgrades
Gold Fields (GFI)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
IAMGOLD (IAG)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
DRDGOLD (DROOY)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)- Sandler O’Neill Sell » Hold
North American Energy (NOA)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Foundation Coal (FCL)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
UnitedHealth (UNH)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Nice Systems (NICE)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Mentor Graphics (MENT)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Stanley Inc. (SXE)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Barnes Group (B)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Hansen Natural (HANS)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Watson Pharm (WPI)- WR Hambrecht Hold » Buy
Gasco Energy (GSX)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
British Amrcn Tobacco (BTI)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
U.S. Steel (X)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Chartered Semi (CHRT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Franklin Bank Corp (FBTX)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Nelnet (NNI)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)- Dahlman Rose Buy » Hold
Kinross Gold (KGC)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight
OmniVision (OVTI)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Echostar Holdings (SATS)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Marlin Business Services (MRLN)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Underperform
Superior Essex (SPSX)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Pzena (PZN)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Pharmasset (VRUS)- UBS Buy » Neutral
SkyWest (SKYW)- Soleil Buy » Hold
UBS AG (UBS)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
FMC Tech (FTI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Sigma Designs (SIGM )- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Microsoft (MSFT) $28.17

Guy Adami says XTO Energy (XTO) $57.72 is a buy.

Karen Finerman prefers Kaiser (KALU) $71.97

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow with Shrt Dow30 Proshares $63.21 (DOG).Close $63.65 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Kaiser Aluminum $67.43 (KALU).Close $68.54 GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks Burlington Northern $89.09 (BNI) is a buy. Close $89.11 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 11-8
Tim Seymore= 2-4
Guy Adami= 10-12
Pete Najarian= 12-8
Karen Finerman= 11-9-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Whitney Tilson Talks About 13-F’s

This is a great video in which Whitney talks about investing ideas based on filings. Topics include Ackman, Target (TGT), Lampert, Icahn and others..

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52 Week Low’s 2/19

(BAMM)- Books-A-Million Inc
(BELM)- Bell Microproducts Inc
(BLD)- Baldwin Technology Co …
(BRCM)- Broadcom Corp
(BTRX)- Barrier Therapeutics Inc
(BX )- Blackstone Group L P
(CTAS)- Cintas Corporation
(CYBX)- Cyberonics Inc
(DLM)- Del Monte Foods Co
(IACI)- Iac Interactivecorp
(IAR)- Idearc Inc
(LPX)- Louisiana Pac Corp
(LVLT)- Level 3 Communication …
(MS)- Morgan Stanley
(MVCO)- Meadow Valley Corporation
(N)- Netsuite Inc

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Tuesday’s Links

Spam, Krugman, Short Sellers, Citi

– After all these years, still a money maker..

– How does Paul Krugman have a job? Read this piece. We have been reading and hearing the same thing for 4 months now…. Just catching on Paul?

– Kass has a point, Stein has blamed everyone but the guilty parties, the companies themselves.

– Chad Brand looks at Citigroup’s (C) segments

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Best Buy Sneezes, Circuit City Will Catch Pneumonia

Best Buy (BBY) came out and reduced FY earnings and the news sent the stock down over 3% Friday. Knowing Best Buy is well run and Circuit City (CC) is not, investors sent City shares down twice that.

For the fiscal year ending March 1, Best Buy reduced its outlook to per-share earnings of $3.05 to $3.10 from $3.10 to $3.20. Expected same-store sales growth was cut to 2.5% to 3% from 4%, and the company maintained its outlook for revenue of about $40 billion.

CEO Brad Anderson said that although the company’s December results were in line with expectations, “soft domestic customer traffic in January, coupled with our near-term outlook, now indicate that our fourth-quarter revenue will fall short of our planned targets.”

Circuit City has said nothing specific about upcoming numbers (assume the worst) but did do something noteworthy.

After Best Buy, Wal-Mart (WMT) and NetFlix (NFLX) announced they will go exclusively with the “Blue-ray” HD DVD format, Circuit City, apparently the last one in the loop was forced to price cut a stand-alone HD player that plays both Sony Corp.’s Blu-ray disc and Toshiba Corp.’s HD DVD format titles by $100.

I can’t wait to hear CEO Schoonover’s excuse for the latest quarter. Maybe, “Perhaps were overly optimistic about a cash strapped consumers willingness to buy soon to be irrelevant technology”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None

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LeapFrog’s New Product Line: A "Leap" Ahead

LeapFrog (LF) has new products rolling out this summer that are the best the company has had in its history.

1- “The Crammer”: A replacement for handwritten index cards. It allowing you to enter data for each side of virtual “cards” and run through them on the 2.5-inch screen. Study aids various subjects are available for download.

2- “The Tag”: A handheld that works with Tag-enabled books to create an independent and interactive reading experience for children. By touching the Tag reader anywhere on any page of a Tag book, children can bring their favorite stories to life, easily skipping from page to page or book to book.

3- “Learning Path”: A free online tool at leapfrog.com that interfaces with LeapFrog products to show parents what their child is learning and how their activities or games map back to the Scope and Sequence of educational skills that the Company has always built into every product.

LeapFrog lost its way 2 years ago as its products rapidly became outdated in a handheld and online world. This latest line of products has taken them back to the head of the pack.

Rather than thinking like a “children’s toy” company, LF seems to have changed that and is now a “educational technology” one. With that change has come the innovative thinking that is clearly evident in the new product line.

Here is a very good review of the new line from someone who has actually played with them.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long LeapFrog

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
CoStar Group (CSGP)- Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Peet’s Coffee (PEET)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO)- Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
Cognex (CGNX)- Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Safeway (SWY)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Alon USA Energy (ALJ)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Sprint Nextel (S )- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Patterson-UTI (PTEN)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Aquila (ILA)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Senior Housing (SNH)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Weight Watchers (WTW)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Centurytel (CTL)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
CoStar Group (CSGP)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Viacom VIA.B (UBS)- Neutral » Buy
Bioscrip (BIOS)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Fluor FLR (UBS)- Neutral » Buy
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG )- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Expeditors Intl (EXPD)- McAdams,Wright,Ragen Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Builders Firstsource (BLDR)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Kona Grill (KONA)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Ramtron (RMTR)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Rodman & Renshaw (RODM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Sell
Cowen Group (COWN)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell
Thomas Weisel (TWPG)- Sterne Agee Buy » Sell
Jefferies Group (JEF)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell
HRPT Properties (HRP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Sell
Macrovision (MVSN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
American Medical (AMMD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Advance America Cash (AEA)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
LCA Vision (LCAV)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Alexion Pharm (ALXN)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Sovran Self Storage (SSS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Syngenta (SYT)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
Whole Foods (WFMI)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
TorreyPines Therapeutics (TPTX)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Monday’s Links

Rent toys, Tech work at home, Financial directors, Old Crooks

– Isn’t it true that some of the best ideas seem in retrospect to be the most obvious?

– Let’s see if my mom reads my blog….

– Has anyone else got a call back from one of them?

– This is interesting

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Apple’s AT&T Deal: Costly

The latest estimates have “unlocked” iPhones costing Apple over $1 billion in lost revenue the next 3 years.

Apple’s (AAPL) AT&T (T) tie-up in the US is for another 4 years meaning the company will continue to not realize monthly revenue, estimated at $120 annually per subscriber from phones “unlocked” for use on other carriers.

Aside from the lost revenue aspect, one can only guess at the numbers of phone that have not been sold to people not willing to switch cell phone carriers to AT&T. Apple has stood by its “10 million phones sold by the end of 2008” goal but recent news that they have dramatically cut back on component orders can only mean sales growth has slowed.

I did a post in May of last year that said AT&T would be the big winner of the iPhone deal and to date they have been. What Apple did was delay sales of its product and allow other handset makers and carriers to come out with competing products. Now, Apple fans will say the offering from Verizon (VZ) and sprint (S) are nowhere near the quality of Apple’s and that may be true.

What is true is that they have given their consumers an option the Apple to stem the urge to switch. When you also consider we have not seen what Research in Motion (RIMM), the Blackberry maker and clear “smart phone” leader has planned, Apple may face even more headwinds. When you can buy a Blackberry from every cell phone provider in existence, sales of the products ought to continue to outpace the iPhone.

None of this even takes into account the specter of Google’s (GOOG) gPhone expected later this year.

Apple had a chance to “bum rush” the industry with its product and could have caught all the other handset makers and carriers by surprise. Whether it was greed, control issues or hubris, Jobs instead backhanded the industry with his rhetoric and attitude towards it.

Instead of having a product all carriers were glad to carry and sell, he created an atmosphere in which they embarked on a quest to compete directly with him and his product.

The handset game is hard enough without intentionally making enemies of its participants, Jobs has done this. I think Apple devotees may find themselves in the future wondering “what could have been” if only Jobs had not started out this process so adversarially.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Sold Apple July $280 calls when stock at $165 in January, none in others

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Wal-Mart Earnings: What We’re Looking For

Wal-Mart (WMT) reports tomorrow and other than the results, there are a host of other questions begging for answers.

First the numbers:
Estimates are for a profit of $1.02 on revenue of $106.91B. On February 7, Wal-Mart reported disappointing January same store sales and forecast its February same store sales to be flat to up 2% (virtually the same # they have forecast every month the past year). It also gave Q4 guidance, forecasting EPS between 99c and $1.03. For fiscal 2009 ending January estimates are $3.43 EPS on $405.81 billion in revenues.

What we want to know:
1- How many share did the company repurchase? After buying $2.7 billion last quarter, anything less than $2.5 billion in this one would be disappointing.
2- International: We just got news about Mexico’s expansion, anything else?
3- Marketside: We have a logo, what is the plan?
4- Jones Apparel: l.e.i brand clothing. Details?
5- The dividend: Was raised for Q1 last year from 17 to 22 cents a share. Can we go to 27 this year?

Chances are we will not get many details before the annual meeting this summer. One can hope though. I would expect Wal-Mart to hit the high end of expectations or just surpass them. Monthly sales figures from the chains suggest people are forgoing a trip to Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) in favor of Wal-Mart.

The new “Save More, Live Better” campaign is a winner and they beat every retailer to the punch when it came to the Christmas season and getting people ready to spend their upcoming “rebates” from the gov’t. Both of these serve to put Wal-Mart at the “top of mind” of consumers when it comes to shopping.

When it comes to full year 2009 forecast, I would expect Wal-Mart to give a very broad earnings range if they provide it at all given the current uncertainty in macro conditions.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, none

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This Week’s Dividend Hikes


ConocoPhillips-(COP)= 14.6%
Cooper Industries A-(CBE) = 19.0%
Genco Shipping & Trading-(GNK) = 28.8%
HNI Corp-(HNI)= 10.3%
Heartland Payment System-(HPY)= 20.0%
Honeywell Int’l-(HON)= 10.0%
IPC Hldgs Ltd-(IPCR)= 10.0%
ITT Corp-(ITT) = 25.0%
Wolverine World Wide-(WWW) = 22.2%
EnCana Corp-(ECA) = 100.0%
CF Industries Holdings-(CF)= 400.0%
National Research Corp-(NRCI) = 16.7%
Robert Half Int’l-(RHI) = 10.0%
Rockville Fin’l-(RCKB)= 25.0%

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The Week’s Insider Purchases


Mcmoran Exploration Co (MMR)= $ 8,083,000
Celadon Group Inc (CLDN) = $3,831,000
Jk Acquisition Corp (JKA) = $3,459,000
Amicus Therapeutics Inc (FOLD)=$ 3,169,000
Emerson Electric Co (EMR) = $2,108,000
Wachovia Corp New (WB)=$ 1,832,000
Rofin Sinar Technologies Inc (RSTI) =$1,648,000
Unifi Inc (UFI)=$1,564,000
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO)=$1,312,000
Tri Valley Corp (TIV) = $1,020,000
Valence Technology Inc (VLNC)=$1,000,000
Zenith National Insurance Corp (ZNT) = $978,000

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