SIDS, Blood Drive Canceled, Foreclosures, Icahn
– Mothers who smoke have children with a higher SIDS rates
– This is stupid. How many people may not get the blood they need so some asinine college administrator can make a juvenile argument.
– Here are the 100 worst foreclosure areas by zip code.
– This could be very insightful..
Carl Icahn disclosed a position in and has placed an associate on the Board of BKF Capital (BGFG) (
From the filing:
“Following the resignation of Keith Meister from Issuer’s Board of
Directors, Reporting Persons suggested that Issuer should consider David
Schechter to replace Keith Meister and thereafter Issuer added Mr. Schechter to
its Board of Directors.”
Icahn ans his affiliates, “..may be deemed to beneficially own, in the aggregate, 1,194,100 Shares, representing approximately 14.98% of the Issuer’s outstanding Shares (based upon the 7,973,216 Shares stated to be outstanding by the Issuer in the Issuer’s 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13, 2007).”
Disclosure (“none” means no position): None
I have been saying to readers that one of the stocks I am watching for a buy is Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). Kind of wish I had hit the button rather than watch.
On Tuesday, Thornburg reported net income before preferred stock dividends for the quarter ended December 31, 2007, of $64.8 million, or $0.33 per diluted common share and $0.34 per basic common share, as compared to $80.3 million, or $0.68 per basic and diluted common share, for the same period in the prior year.
Net loss before preferred stock dividends for the year ended December 31, 2007, was $874.9 million as compared to net income of $297.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2006. The company’s fourth quarter cash dividend for common shareholders of record on December 31, 2007 was $0.25 per share, which was paid on January 30, 2008.
Read the press release here:
Here is the only thing that matters. “Continued exceptional credit performance with 0.44% 60-plus day delinquencies and REO at December 31, 2007, well below the 4.23% industry average at September 30, 2007”. Larry Goldstone, president and chief executive officer said “..we have begun to see financing conditions improve and, despite these challenges, we successfully continue to maintain existing short-term financing facilities with our existing finance counterparties and have successfully added new financing capacity since year end.”
He continued, “With the potential for expanded agency guidelines raising the conforming loan limit, the company would expect to benefit from this market change as a notable percentage of its pipeline and existing unsecuritized loan portfolio would qualify under the increased loan limit. The company would then be able to create agency securities as well as the private label securities in order to further diversify its portfolio financing strategies.”
They have not been able to sell a CDO since October 2007 but are under the opinion they will in Q1, 2008. This is good for the entire market.
Despite what you may think, people are still buying houses. Just not at levels they were before. Thornburg is focused on the upper end of the market and while results prove it has slowed, it is not non-existent. For lenders like Thornburg, finding financing for their loans is key and with the industries lowest default rate, that potential issue ought to be put to bed.
As long as TMA is able to keep their default rate low, they will be fine. Based on past and current results, that should happen. When housing returns, they will emerge a very strong and more preferred player in the business.
The stock has rallied form $8 on 1/18 to almost $13 now. It is important to note these numbers are down from a high of $28 in 2007. The stock yields 7.8% and based on Q4 results, seems safe after being ditched in Q3.
Rush out and jump in? No. TMA has been volatile and the next market leg down ought to take TMA with it. Then it will give you a better entry point. You could sell the March $12.50 call and receive about $100 per contract. That would lower your entry price, should you get “put” them (forced to buy at $12.50) at $11.50. If TMA keeps climbing, you keep the cash and do it again.
I may do just that…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
LeapFrog (LF) released results and it appears that despite the dismal retail environment out there, the made very good progress over 2006.
“LeapFrog’s sales for the 2007 fourth quarter were approximately equal to last year, and brought the full year sales to $445 million, a decline of 11%, which was in line with our expectations,” said LeapFrog president and chief executive officer Jeffrey G. Katz.
He continued, “Our overall results were affected by the widely publicized economic concerns facing U.S. consumers which caused retailers to order cautiously for many items. This impacted some of our products, of course, including our newly introduced FLY Fusion Pentop Computer. Fly Fusion hardware was nearly sold out in stores by year-end, but retailers ordered fewer units than originally forecasted. In spite of these issues, there were some bright spots over the holiday season, including ClickStart My First Computer, which performed well at retail, our Learn & Groove toy line, and the Leapster gaming system and software, which continued to lead the educational gaming market and sold strongly.”
Chief Financial Officer Bill Chiasson said,”We ended 2007 with a strong balance sheet and improved inventory positions at both Leap Frog and at retailers. Cash and investments totaled approximately $105 million at year-end. Inventories were approximately $53 million, down almost 30% from year ago levels. Inventories of LeapFrog products held at retailers were also down sharply from last year.”
LeapFrog is a minute .5% of the portfolio and is a pick i made cause the kids like the products and I believe in both Katz and the products they have coming out. the fact that they are still on track and in better shape now then they were at this time last year means they are doing a great job.
In no way did I expect the company to turn a profit in 2007 and they did accomplish what I was looking for. The new products are VERY exciting and will be good sellers, cash levels are good, inventories are way down and debt levels are good. In short 2007 was about getting things inline and now that it has been done, time to execute.
That being said, I will hold my shares. I may look to add more but seeing as 3/4 of all sales for the company come in Q4, I will not consider doing anything until late summer at the earliest.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long LF
Upgrades
Adobe Systems (ADBE)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Team (TISI)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Advent Software (ADVS)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Boston Scientific (BSX)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Perot Systems (PER)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Expedia (EXPE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Boston Scientific (BSX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Genomic Health (GHDX)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Teekay Shipping (TK)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Estee Lauder (EL)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
American Tower (AMT)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Crown Castle (CCI)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Duke Realty (DRE0- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Downgrades
AMERCO (UHAL)- CL King Accumulate » Neutral
Neustar (NSR)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
USANA (USNA)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Riverbed Technology (RVBD)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Neustar (NSR)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Yahoo! (YHOO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
FormFactor (FORM)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Harman (HAR)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Quest Software (QSFT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
RadiSys (RSYS)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
Allis-Chalmers Energy (ALY)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
FormFactor (FORM)- Broadpoint Capital Buy » Neutral
General Motors (GM)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Regions Fincl (RF)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Clorox (CLX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
National Financial Partners (NFP)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
Thursday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Dow Chemical (DOW) $38.05
Karen Finerman prefers Microsoft (MSFT) $28.52
Pete Najarian recommends looking at JetBlue (JBLU) $6.57
Wednesday’s Results
Jeff Macke is sticking with Disney (DIS) $30.07 after a blow-out earnings report. Close $31.50 GAIN
Guy Adami said NYSE Euronext (NYX) $71.03 is “overdone” after a sharp sell-off.Close $69.03 LOSS
Karen Finerman agrees with Guy. The time is right to buy NYX, she said.LOSS
Jon Najarian said he notices a lot of put buying in AIG (AIG) $52.93 means it’s time to short the insurance giant. Close $52.10 GAIN
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 8-6
Tim Seymore= 2-3
Guy Adami= 7-9
Pete Najarian= 8-6
Karen Finerman= 7-8
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
In an SEC filing moments ago, Carl Icahn and affiliates disclosed a 5% stake in Motorola (MOT)
From the filing:
“The Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own, in the
aggregate, 114,289,100 Shares, representing approximately 5.0% of the Issuer’s
outstanding Shares (based upon the 2,284,320,984 Shares stated to be outstanding
as of September 29, 2007 by the Issuer in the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission on November 6, 2007 for the quarter ended
September 29, 2007).”
Reason for Purchases:
The Reporting Persons acquired their positions in the Shares in the belief
that they were undervalued. The Reporting Persons have had, and intend to seek
to have further, conversations with members of the Issuer’s management and the
board of directors to discuss ideas that management, the board of directors and
the Reporting Persons may have to enhance shareholder value.
On January 31, 2008 and February 1, 2008, Carl C. Icahn issued press
releases concerning Motorola, Inc., copies of which are attached hereto as
Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference.
Since Jan. 7th, Icahn and affiliates have purchased 38.7 million shares of Motorola.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) raised its dividend 8% and named a new CFO.
ADM said the dividend is payable March 11 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 19. It is the second quarterly increase since December, 2006 and the dividend has been increase a total of 30% in that time frame.
ADM also announced Steven Mills will succeed CFO Douglas Schmalz, who is retiring after 23 years with the company, effective March 1. Mills, currently the company’s senior vice president for strategic planning, joined ADM in 1979 and was appointed controller in 1994.
Schmalz, 61 years old, was appointed CFO at ADM, the nation’s largest ethanol producer in October 1986. He joined the company a year earlier as controller.
No big deal here. One insider taking over for another. It is a wash..
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM
(XXIA)- Ixia
(XRIT )- X-Rite Incorporated
(WSH )- Willis Group Holdings Ltd
(WOOF )- VCA Antech, Inc
(WBMD)- Webmd Health Corp
(VNBC )- Vineyard Natl Bancorp
(USM )- United States Cellula …
(TPX )- Tempur Pedic Intl Inc
(TOO )- Teekay Offshore Partn …
(TOD )- Todd Shipyards Corpor …
(TKPU)- Polaris Acquisition Corp
(SNE )- Sony Corp
(SNCI )- Sonic Innovations Inc
(SMTC )- Semtech Corporation
(SLXP )- Salix Pharmaceuticals Inc
(SDA )- Sadia S A
(PRFT )- Perficient Inc
(PONE )- Protection One Inc
(PMCS )- Pmc-Sierra Inc
(GRO )- Agria Corp
(GLDD )- Great Lakes Dredge & …
(GIA )- Gulfstream Intl Group Inc
(GAN )- Gainsco Inc
(FUJI )- Fujifilm Hldgs Corp
(BDAY )- Celebrate Express Inc
(BBBB )- Blackboard Inc
(AWBC )- Americanwest Bancorpo …
(AVGN )- Avigen Inc
(ARIA )- ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Inc
(AMAB)- Americasbank Corp
Jim Rodgers, Insiders, Adam Warner, Terrorist and mortgages
– This guy made his money off Soros and has been wrong on this prediction for years.
– They are buying, why aren’t you?
– Adam takes the MSM to task
– This is called “over thinking it“.
John Hess, chairman and chief executive officer of integrated-oil company Hess Corp. (HES)and a Dow Chemical (DOW)director, bought $997,000 in Dow stock Friday, according to a filing with the SEC.
Hess acquired 25,200 shares at an average of $39.56 per share. It is Hess’ second million-dollar buy in the last year. In May 2007, he acquired 21,700 shares at an average price of $46.18 each. Hess now holds 48,550 Dow shares,
Hess was elected to Dow’s board in October 2006 and has served as Chairman and CEO of Hess Corp. since 1995.
Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Dow
It looks like John McCain is the front runner for the Republican primary.
If that is the case, as investors, we need to know where he stands on a few key issues. From his website:
Cut Taxes On The Middle Class
* Cut Taxes For Middle Class Families: Hard-working American families need lower taxes. John McCain will permanently repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) — a tax that will be paid nearly exclusively by 25 million middle class families. John McCain will repeal this onerous tax, saving middle class families nearly $60 billion in a single year. Under McCain’s plan, a middle class family with children set to pay the AMT will save an average of over $2,700 — a real tax cut for working families.
Pro-Growth Tax Policy
* Keep Tax Rates Low: Entrepreneurs are at the heart of American innovation, growth and prosperity. Entrepreneurs create the ultimate job security — a new, better opportunity if your current job goes away. Entrepreneurs should not be taxed into submission. John McCain will make the Bush income and investment tax cuts permanent, keeping income tax rates at their current level and fighting the Democrats’ plans for a crippling tax increase in 2011. Left to their devices, Democrats will impose a massive $100 billion tax hike, almost $700 per taxpayer every year.
* Make It Harder To Raise Taxes: John McCain believes it should require a 3/5 majority vote in Congress to raise taxes.
* Reward Saving, Investment and Risk-Taking: Low taxes on dividends and capital gains promote saving, channel investment dollars to innovative, high-value uses and not wasteful financial planning. John McCain will keep the current rates on dividends and capital gains and fight anti-growth efforts by Democrats.
Pro-Innovation Tax Cuts
* Ban Internet Taxes: John McCain believes we must make a farsighted, robust, and fervent commitment to innovation and new technologies to sustain our global competitiveness, meet our national security challenges, achieve less costly and more effective health care, reduce dangerous dependence on foreign sources of oil, and raise the quality of education in the United States. John McCain has been a leader in keeping the Internet free of taxes. As President, he will seek a permanent ban on taxes that threaten this engine of economic growth and prosperity.
* Ban New Cell Phone Taxes: John McCain understands that the same people that would tax e-mail will tax every text message — and even 911 calls. John McCain will prohibit new cellular telephone taxes.
* Permanent R&D Tax Credit: Innovation is fueled by access to sufficient risk capital, a light regulatory burden, skilled workers, and good incentives to pursue new ideas. John McCain will reform and make permanent the research and development (R&D) tax credit to keep America competitive and provide a stable environment for entrepreneurs.
Retirement Tax Cut
* Lower Medicare Premiums: Seniors face a growing threat from higher Medicare premiums that tax away their Social Security and retirement savings. John McCain has proposed comprehensive, pro-market health care and Medicare reforms to reduce health care costs and control increases in premiums — while delivering high-quality health care.
Reforming Entitlement Programs For The 21st Century
* Reform Social Security: John McCain will fight to save the future of Social Security and believes that we may meet our obligations to the retirees of today and the future without raising taxes. John McCain supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts — but not as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept.
Eliminating Wasteful Spending
* Stop Earmarks, Pork-Barrel Spending, And Waste: John McCain will veto every pork-laden spending bill and make their authors famous. As President, he will seek the line-item veto to reduce waste and eliminate earmarks that have led to corruption. Earmarks restrict America’s ability to address genuine national priorities and interfere with fair, competitive markets.
Now, all of the stances meet the pro-business talking point and like the other candidates, lack any real details. It would be nice to have him say we would lower capital gains and dividend taxes more, but given the choices we now have, keeping them where they are is the best we will get. .
However, McCain’s stance is in direct contrast to both Obama and Hillary who have both promised to raise taxes. Raising taxes in a economic slowdown would be catastrophic.
As this thing unfolds, we will get more clarity on the positions of the candidates. As we get closer to a Democratic nominee, I will review his or her positions then.
Has anyone else noticed how eerily quiet it has been lately/
Aside from the 17,000 thousand stories about the Microsoft (MSFT) / Yahoo (YHOO) merger and Google’s (GOOG) foot stomping and breath holding antics, it seems as though the market is just floating around. Google actually brought up the word “monopoly” despite owning over 70% of the search market. See what I mean by strange?
We are up 100 today, down 100 tomorrow. It seems that everyone is just looking towards the summer and ignoring today. What they think they see is bad so it seems there is just a bit of investor paralysis out there. The traders are able to take advantage of it and jerk the market around for a few quick bucks here and there without any conviction either way.
It is the kind of market that makes me want to do something but like the rest, I wonder if there is another “shoe to drop”. If there is, I really do not care and in fact, would welcome it as a chance to pick up more favorites cheaper than today. The converse is the urge to assume this is “the bottom” and start buying because or the boredom.
That being said, I hesitate to invest “just in case” so to speak.
What to do? Sell more puts. An example:
You want to buy more Citigroup (C) but are afraid it will tank again from the $27.70 it trades at on Tuesday. You can sell a June $25 put and receive $158 for it. That means, that if Citi drops below $25 around the expiration (June 20), you must buy the shares for $25, even if they trade at only $25. But, because you received $158 for the put, your actual cost is only $23.42 ($25-$1.58) per share. Should Citi not go below $25, you just keep the money and go out to dinner.
Now, this only works for me because I only sell puts in companies I would own should I get “put” shares. That way, even if that happens, I own stock in a company at a price I am very comfortable owning it at.
This strategy works for me because it give me a chance for a little action with very little risk and keeps from satisfying the occasional urge to “do something” with something stupid.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None, Long Citi
Upgrades
Greenbrier Comp (GBX)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Spansion (SPSN)- Lazard Capital Hold » Buy
Fossil (FOSL)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Illumina (ILMN)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Harry Winston Diamond (HWD)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Diamond Offshore (DO)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Greenbrier Comp (GBX)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Zoran (ZRAN)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Arch Coal (ACI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Mosaic (MOS)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Potash (POT)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Amkor (AMKR)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Cadbury Schweppes (CSG)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
MDC Holdings (MDC)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Pulte Homes (PHM)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
KB Home (KBH)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Toll Brothers (TOL)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Hasbro (HAS)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Yahoo! (YHOO)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Actuate (ACTU)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Strong Buy
Downgrades
IDEX Corp (IEX)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Rochester Medical (ROCM)- Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform $19 » $12
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
McCormick & Schmick’s (MSSR)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
Rainmaker Sys (RMKR)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Pali Research Buy » Neutral
Silicon Image (SIMG)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Rainmaker Sys (RMKR)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
CBL & Assoc (CBL)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lithia Motors (LAD)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
VCA Antech (WOOF)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Bankrate (RATE)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Soleil Buy » Hold
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Assoc Banc-Corp (ASBC)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Barnes & Noble (BKS)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Norfolk Southern (NSC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
CSX Corp (CSX)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Yahoo! (YHOO)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Goldman Sachs (GS)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Wednesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke is sticking with Disney (DIS) $30.07 after a blow-out earnings report.
Guy Adami said NYSE Euronext (NYX) $71.03 is “overdone” after a sharp sell-off.
Karen Finerman agrees with Guy. The time is right to buy NYX, she said.
Jon Najarian said he notices a lot of put buying in AIG (AIG) $52.93 means it’s time to short the insurance giant.
Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends Disney (DIS) $30.90 ahead of earnings. Close $30.07 LOSS
Tim Seymour likes Gold Fields (GFI) $13.84 which he says is about 40% off of its highs. Close $13.53 LOSS
Karen Finerman prefers Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) $66.09 also ahead of earnings. Close $64.29 LOSS
Pete Najarian thinks Albemarle Corporation (ALB) $38.30 is a buy. Close $37.10 LOSS
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 3-1
Jeff Macke= 7-6
Tim Seymore= 2-3
Guy Adami= 7-8
Pete Najarian= 8-6
Karen Finerman= 7-7
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%