Categories
Articles

The Week’s Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here they are, the Top 20 from VIN

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

The Weeks Dividend Increases


Capital One Fin’l-(COF) = 1309.8 %
Brooklyn Fedl Bncp Inc-(BFSB)= 40.0%
Airgas Inc-(ARG )= 33.3 %
United States Steel Corp-(X)= 25.0%
Fluor Corp-(FLR) 25.0%
Alliance Bancorp PA-(ALLB)= 20.0%
Alberto-Culver Co-(ACV)= 18.2%
Targa Res PrtnrsL.P-(NGLS) 17.8%
Lehman Bros-(LEH)= 13.3%
GATX Corp-(GMT) 12.5%
Lazard Ltd-(LAZ)= 11.1%
Timberland Bancorp-(TSBK) = 10.05

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

The Week’s Insider Buys


Coldwater Creek Inc (CWTR)= $ 9,606,000
Luby S Inc LUB 1 600,000 5,400
Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (XTLB) = $ 5,070,000
Citigroup Inc (C) = $4,998,000
Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF)= $ 2,987,000
Cenveo Inc (CVO) = $2,900,000
Equity One Inc (EQY)= $2,705,000
At&T Inc (T ) = $2,274,000
Johnson Controls Inc (JCI)= $2,121,000
E Trade Financial Corp (ETFC) = $1,929,000
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF) = $ 1,829,000

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

52 Week Low’s 2/1


(URX)= United Refining Energ …
(UNCA )= Unica Corp
(TXA )= Tribune Co New
(PCOP )= Pharmacopeia Inc
(PCBI )= Peoples Cmnty Bancorp Inc
(OMRI )= Omrix Biopharmaceutic …
(MRX)= Medicis Pharmaceutica …
(MROE )= Monroe Bancorp
(MAYS )= J W Mays Inc
(LIMC )= Limco Piedmont Inc
(KWK )= Quicksilver Resources Inc
(INTT )= Intest Corp
(BFRM )= Bioform Medical Inc
(BCRX )= BioCryst Pharmaceutic …
(AZN )= Astrazeneca Plc
(AWBC )= Americanwest Bancorpo …
(AVID )= Avid Technology Inc
(ARAY )= Accuray Inc

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Icahn Buys Into JC Penny?

A report in the WSJ today said the stake is among Mr. Icahn’s top five holdings, which could mean it runs into the hundreds of millions of dollar.

Icahn will disclose the stake in mid-Feb according to the story. Now, Carl is scheduled to appear on CNBC’s “Fast Money” show today at 5pm. If he is not going to disclosed the stake until the next couple weeks, it is unlikely we will get any details tonight on the show.

JC Pennys’ stock, like rival retailers such as Sears Holdings (SHLD), Macy’s (M) and Kohl’s (KSS) is down over 40% in the last year and trades at just under 10 times earnings.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None, Long SHLD

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Links

Wall Strip on Smoking, Jeff Matthews, iPhone
killer” or, Not a iPhone “killer”

– This just may be one of the funniest things I have ever seen.

– Jeff makes a good point here

– Well ,is it, or isn’t it?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

A Bottom Called?

From the “timing is everything” department.

In a post entitled “Financials: This is What a Bottom Starts to Look Like” I said “So does this means the financials index (XLF) has nowhere to go but up? No, there may be a little more downside from here. It does mean that there will not be much more significant downside though. Currently trading at a 5 year low, the sector as a whole is vastly oversold.”

The XLF (the financial sector ETF) stood at $27.88 the following trading day (1/14) and dropped 8.5% to $25.50 on January 18th. Since then it has rebounded from that low and stands just over $29.

Was that the low for the financial sector in 2008? Barring a seminal event (terrorist attack, another war, etc.) my gut tells me yes..

Consider since then Wilbur Ross is now in talks with Ambac (ABK) or another bond insurer, Ajit Jain at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has said they “are talking with” them or MBIA (MBI) and Leucadia (LUK) is acquiring shares of AmerCredit (ACF) at a breakneck pace. These are very smart people who have made billions of dollars picking up scraps of unwanted sectors.

The fact they are now circling the financials must tell us something…

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Stabucks Earnings Call: Another Poor Year

“What we have to do is simple: Differentiate our experience, so that when a customer walks into a Starbucks store, they get something that they can only get from us..” Starbucks (SBUX) CEO CEO Howard Schultz

Notes from the earnings call:

The financials:
** Revenues for the quarter were up 17% to $2.8 billion, from $2.4 billion a year ago.
** Earnings per share increased to $0.28 cents in Q1 of this fiscal year, compared to $0.26 cents per share in Q1 of ‘07.
** Dairy costs resulted in a negative $0.02 impact to EPS in the quarter.(ValuePlays readers first got this in May of 2007)
** Operating margins contracted 160 basis points to 12% from last year’s Q1 margin of 13.6%. (Dairy cost)
** Higher interest expense driven by an increased level of debt when compared to the first quarter of 2007. The debt was used to repurchase shares, resulting in a net neutral impact on earnings per share in the quarter. (Again, see May of 2007)
** A new share repurchase authorization by our Board of Directors for up to an additional 5 million shares
** For 2008 “we are looking to deliver low double-digit earnings growth — lower than expected”

The stores:
** plan to open a total of approximately 1,175 net new stores in 2008, down 34% from fiscal 2007 openings.
** Closing approximately 100 underperforming stores.
** For 2009, plan to open fewer than 1,000 new stores in the U.S.
** Will open approximately an additional 75 net new stores in international markets
** In fiscal 2009, that number will rise to over 1,000 new stores internationally,

Products:
** will discontinue warmed breakfast sandwiches in our North American stores

Plans:
** “At our Annual Meeting of our shareholders on March 19th, we will lay out five specific, bold consumer-facing initiatives that will be a major catalyst for change and transformation.” Schultz

The sentence that really mattered? “Comparable store sales declined 1% in the quarter, driven by a 3% decrease in transactions.” That is the whole ball of wax.

So Schultz and company have a plan? Here are some more helpful hints:

1- 100 US store closing just are not even the beginning of what is necessary
2- Differentiation? If I am going to pay premium prices for ANY product, I want a service level that equates. Most people feel the same way. I do not expect the service at McDonalds (MCD) to be the same as a Mortons (MRT). That being said, if I go to McDonalds and have to wait for my order to be completed, they politely ask me to go sit down and relax and they bring it to me. If I am in Starbucks, I stand in the “cattle line” and wait, and wait, and wait. Why?
3- Too many small locations. Now, I am sure the little locations are money makers but their proliferation has had a negative effect. Why? If it is a nice day, I do not mind stopping and dragging the kids inside to get some coffee, but, if it is raining, snowing and very cold, I won’t go in because there will be no place for us to sit and it is just too much effort to walk and and then turn around and go. The proliferation of the “counter stop” locations with no real sitting area causes a mental picture of Starbucks. I now (and so do others) pass them by when I see them because there now is an assumption of their lack of adequate seating. They have changed the perception of the company from a place to hang out and drink coffee to one of inconvenience.
4- Get rid of all the crap. There is just too much junk for sale and the stores feel claustrophobic. Has anyone ever purchases one of the cappuccino machines there for sale? I keep waiting to see lawn mowers for sale out front..

Starbucks shares are getting hit on Thursday and even with all the pain in 2007, they trade around 26 times this years earnings. They are by no means cheap. With growth expected to slow even more, there isn’t anything to warrant shares going higher anytime soon.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Ackman’s Letter to NY Insurance Commissioner & SEC

If you thought Ackman’s letter to the ratings agencies was something else. In a letter to the NY & Wisconsin Insurance Commissioners as well as the SEC, he lays out the cases for massive losses to MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK). It is stunning…

The full 20 page letter can be found on pdf. here

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Alliance Data (ADS)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
MIPS Techs (MIPS)= B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Ryder System (R)= BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
NCR Corp (NCR)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Imation (IMN )= Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Cablevision (CVC)= Kaufman Bros Sell » Hold
Big Lots (BIG)= Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Enterprises Finl (EFSC)= Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Comerica (CMA)= Rochdale Securities Sell » Hold
Pinnacle West (PNW )= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Alliance Data (ADS)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
SCP Pool (POOL)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Alliance Data (ADS)= JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Alliance Data (ADS )= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Sealed Air (SEE)= Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Astoria Fincl (AF)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Nordstrom (JWN)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Hess (HES)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Gilead Sciences (GILD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)= Longbow Buy » Neutral
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Underperform
Mattson (MTSN)= Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Allstate (ALL)= Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)= Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Audible (ADBL)= Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Accuray (ARAY)= Soleil Buy » Hold
TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)= Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Affiliated Managers (AMG)= Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Baker Hughes (BHI)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Schlumberger (SLB)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
W&T Offshore (WTI)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Saks (SKS)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
NuCo2 (NUCO)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Baker Hughes (BHI)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Delhaize Group (DEG)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Harris Stratex (HSTX)= Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Century Aluminum (CENX)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Cadence Design (CDNS)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Monster Worldwide (MNST)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Adobe Systems (ADBE)= Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
YUM! Brands (YUM) Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

52 Week Low’s 1/31


(ZRAN) Zoran Corporation
(TLGD ) Tollgrade Communicati …
(TKPU ) Polaris Acquisition Corp
(TELK ) Telik Inc
(RNOW) Rightnow Technologies Inc
(RDY ) Dr. Reddy’s Labs, Ltd.
(RCRC) Rc2 Corp
(NEWP) Newport Corporation
(MTSN ) Mattson Technology Inc
(MSII ) Media Sciences Intl Inc
(HTCH ) Hutchinson Technology Inc
(HSTX ) Harris Stratex Ntwrks Inc
(HMG ) HMG/Courtland Propert …
(HLDU ) Secure Amer Acquisiti …
(GRVY ) Gravity Co Ltd
(BCRX ) BioCryst Pharmaceutic …
(AWBC ) Americanwest Bancorpo …
(AVRX) Avalon Pharmaceutical …
(ARIA ) ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Inc
(ARAY )Accuray Inc

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Sherwin Williams Files in RI Supreme Court: BREAKING

As usual, Jane Genova is on top of this as the briefs were filed.

Read Jane’s Post here:

From NL Industries’ (NL) Brief:

“The trial court sanctioned liability without requiring the jury to find that any defendant acted negligently, or intentionally, or that any defendant knew or should have known of any alleged danger, or that any defendant ever sold lead pigment in Rhode Island or that any defendant’s lead pigment was present on any building in this State at anytime, past or present.” [page 1]

“If the trial court’s jury instructions stand, the only question is which industry will be next. What happens if hair spray is found to be a problem five years from now? What about polyurethane?” [page 6]

From Millennium Holdings’ Brief:

“If the aggregate presence of a product in the State is to be recognized as a new basis for liability, then certainly no person should be charged with responsibility beyond the extent to which that person’s product is present in the State. Yet, here each Defendant has been held liable to abate lead pigments in Rhode Island that it never made or sold, and without any evidence as to whether that Defendant’s product is in the State and, if so, how much.” [page 1]

Excerpts from Sherwin-Williams’ (SHW) Brief:

“The end result was a trial so stacked in Plaintiff’s favor that Defendants effectively were forced to defend themselves with both hands tied behind their backs, while attempting to strike at a moving target – a trial so unfair in its conception and execution as to violate the U.S. and Rhode Island Constitutions.” [page 7]

“It is impossible to know what comprises the alleged nuisance when the nuisance is an unidentified fiction over which Defendants exercise no control. It is impossible to challenge actual cause where there is no specifically identified nuisance or injury. It is impossible to argue that others are the sole or alternative cause of any harm, a key defense, when no particular injury, no specific property, and no other potential cause can be investigated. The conception of the nuisance thus relieved Plaintiff of required elements of proof and denied Defendants the ability to rebut any particular instance of the purported nuisance. It created, without fair notice and after the fact, limitless, endless liability, without proof of fault, actual causation, or proximate causation.” [page 6-7]

“The suit and the legislative approach are very different universes about to collide. Based on the recognition that well-maintained properties are not dangerous, the Lead Poisoning Prevention Act places the responsibility for lead remediation on the property owners who have control over the condition of the paint and creates incentives to encourage owners to maintain their properties.” [pages 3-4]

“A jury of six people was encouraged to issue a verdict, and Plaintiff insists that the jury has issued a verdict, tantamount to new statewide policies for public health and manufacturer liability. The common law is not filling a gap; it is trespassing on the legislative domain and creating conflicting rules.’ [page 5].

More to come …

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sherwin, none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s Links

Lead, Cramer, Mozillo, 60 Minutes

– More lead paint hypocrisy……..

– More on Jim Cramer making investors dizzy.

This is great. A “hats off” to Joe Ponzio.

– How do we know the sub-prime story has run its course? 60 Minutes did a story on it. Do they know Kennedy was assassinated?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Altria Earnings Call Notables

Here are the notable items from Altria’s (MO) earnings call yesterday

CEO Louis Camilleri

Regarding smokeless products”
“…Marlboro Moist Smokeless Tobacco. The latter introduction has [inaudible] much debating in ink in the recent past. While it is still early days, let me just say that we are very encouraged by the results to date, particularly in terms of the consumer response to the product and repurchase rates.”

PMI
** 70% of PMI’s top 25-income markets registered improved trends in the fourth quarter

Effect of share repurchases:
** “benefit of share repurchases in ’08 is slightly less than 1% in terms of growth, and clearly it will impact 2009’s growth rate a lot more.”
** combination of the buybacks plus the dividends equals 20% of the market cap
** Altria will start in April and PMI will start in May

Litigation risk to PMI:
“No, it’s certainly not non-existent. There has been litigation internationally as you are aware and as the disclosure showed. However, the industry has been very successful, and I think we will continue to be successful. That is not to say that there won’t be claims and litigation internationally, but it’s not something that I’m unduly concerned about.”

Most of the really big questions were deferred until the investors conference on March 11th. At that time the details of both companies will be discussed.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Altria

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Wal-Mart Tinkers With Clothing Again

Wal-Mart (WMT) will move clothing merchandising jobs to New York as it seeks to narrow its focus on basic clothes its customer base wants. About time…

Word from Bentonville is that a large number of workers are bring let go as the company has decided to finally put to rest its quest for “hippness”. After trying for years to one up Target (TGT) in the style department, Wal-Mart is listening to its shoppers and rather than trying to sell them clothing, it will stocks its stores with the clothing they want to buy.

This is a good move for Wal-Mart. I do not think no matter how hard they try, Wal-Mart can ever hope to become a “fashion” stop for shoppers. You know what? That is ok. Folks still need underwear, t-shirts and the like and if they know they can get those items at Wal-Mart at a great price, they will shop there.

If nothing else, Wal-Mart will now save the millions of dollars they have invested in the pursuit of fashion and can put that cash to better use.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books