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Lampert’s Move: Yes, Its About Brands

Eddie Lampert’s move at Sears Holdings (SHLD) on Friday is a big one in unlocking value at the retailer.

In November I stressed that Sears was not so much of a retailer story but a brand one. The general idea was that post and several others was that Lampert would eventually leverage the quality brands he has.

The Wall St. Journal reported Saturday that Lampert is doing just that.

Said the Journal, “A Sears spokesman confirmed the moves late Friday, saying the new structure will provide operating businesses with “greater control, authority and autonomy.”

It continued, “The contemplated restructuring would create separate units to manage Sears’s real-estate holdings and run brands such as Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. It isn’t clear how the units would be divided or which unit would run the stores themselves.

The structure would allow Mr. Lampert to spin off or close business units more easily, said a person knowledgeable about his thinking. “He warmed to the idea of a spin-off strategy,” this person said. The company also is willing to be flexible about how each unit will be set up, based on the skills of its operating executive. One practical effect of that could be to reduce costs.”

He is essentially setting up Sears like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

This is probably the single best thing Lampert could have done. Why? Let’s say I am the newly minted head of the Kenmore line. What is my first move? Pick up the phone and call Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) and see who want to sell some of the best appliances out there. When I hang up, I tell them they can expect a call from the Craftsmen guy next. Will they license the brands to GE (GE) to expand sales even more?

Will we see Diehard batteries in Wal-Mart’s (WMT) or Targets’s (TGT) automotive sections soon? How about AutoZone’s (AZ)?

With Wal-Mart consistently trying to upgrade it apparel options, could we see either Lands End, Joe Boxer, Covington, Structure or Canyon River Blues on the shelves? With Target looking for refreshed options after a very disappointing holiday season, might they take a stab at it?

The main issue with Sears as it is set up now is that the closing of questionable locations now dramatically impacts sales. If the brands are being sold through other locations, closing and selling stores can have a more positive effect on the bottom line as the sales impact is not nearly as great but the expense reduction is the same.

We know Target has been begging Lampert to sell them hundreds of locations. Could the newly separated real estate management arm rather than selling them become a landlord to Target? Rather than just closing a Kmart location, rent it to Target. In that respect, that division becomes a REIT to the holding company. With 3,500 locations under it, the options are incredible.

The point is that if the main brands that account for the majority of the profits currently are licensed and sold through other outlets, the importance of the physical stores are diminished. It also means that Sears now has more options for the marginal stores it may be carrying now. Sears could keep the best and most profitable locations while disposing of the lesser ones through leases or outright sales and keep merchandise sales and profits going through other retailers.

This is exciting..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, Long Wal-Mart, None in others

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This Week’s Insider Buys

Ruby Tuesday Inc (RT)= $4,399,115
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD)= $4,180,220
Antigenics Inc De (AGEN)= $ 3,912,969
Zhongpin Inc (HOGS)= $ 3,901,573
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)= $ 2,060,639
Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)= $1,830,000
Shoretel Inc (SHOR)= $ 1,278,979
American Capital Strategies Ltd (ACAS)= $1,275,289
Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (XTLB)= $ 1,262,070
Stein Mart Inc (SMRT)= $1,143,441
Iomega Corp (IOM)= $ 1,111,895

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Top Stories of the Week at Value Investing News

A long weekend so a nice long list. Some really interesting article this week…

Visit Value Investing News here.

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Ackman In 3 More Swap Transactions in Borders

Pershing’s Bill Ackman just can’t get his hands on Borders (BGP) share fast enough.

In an after hours SEC filing Friday, Ackman acquired rights to another 1.064,163 share of Borders. This now gives him an economic interest in approximately 26% of outstanding shares.

Transaction details:
1. The reporting person, for the account of Pershing Square, L.P. (“PSI”), Pershing Square II, L.P. (PSII), and Pershing Square International, Ltd. (“PSIL”), entered into cash-settled total return swaps with a broker-dealer counterparty for a commission equal to $0.03 per notional share subject to such swaps. The first swap (the “First Swap”) was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSI is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 438,723 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the “First Swap Reference Shares”), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSI any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the First Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap.
2. The second swap (the “Second Swap”) was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSIL is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 619,419 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the “Second Swap Reference Shares”), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSIL any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the Second Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap.
3. The third swap (the “Third Swap”) was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSII is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 6,021 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the “Third Swap Reference Shares”), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSII any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the Third Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Berkshire Still Adding To Burlington Northern Stake

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)disclosed it added again to its Burlington Northern (BNI)stake in an SEC filing Friday.

In the filing Friday after market close, Berkshire disclosed it bought 1.2 million more shares of the railroad.

Purchases:
1/16: 44,200 shares @ $76.55
1/17: 205,800 shares @ $77.83
1/18: 996,100 shares at $76.97

This brings Berkshire total holding in the company to 63,775,118 shares

Disclosure (“none” means no position):More admiration, None

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Leucadia Again Buys Options on AmeriCredit

In an SEC filing moments ago Leucadia (LUK) increased its position in AmeriCredit (ACF)

Leucadia purchased options that expire 3/14/08 on 1.25 million Americredit shares.

The options have an exercise price of $9 a share. Leucadia now holds options on 2.25 million shares all exercisable at $9 a share.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Admiration for Leucadia, None

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52 Weeks Low’s 1/18


(YHOO) Yahoo! Inc= $20.59
(WFC ) Wells Fargo & Company=$ 25.31
(WCC ) Wesco Intl Inc =$33.00
(WB ) Wachovia Corp =$ 30.73
(UA ) Under Armour Inc =$27.39
(TYC ) Tyco Intl Ltd Bermuda=$ 33.85
(TWX ) Time Warner Inc =$15.46
(OFI ) Overhill Farms Inc =$2.32
(OC ) Owens Corning New =$17.30
(O ) Realty Income Corp =$21.31
(NSC ) Norfolk Southern Corp =$ 44.05
(NR ) Newpark Resources, Inc =$4.16
(S) Sprint = $8.71

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Bernanke Profile This Weekend

Roger Lowenstein, who wrote one of the two best books on Buffett I have ever read has a piece on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in The NY Times this weekend. It is a must read..

Here is the story:

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Pershing Gets A Seat at Borders Table

Richard McGuire, is one of five people responsible for managing about $6 billion for Pershing, is now on the Board of Directors at Borders (BGP).

If you remember, Pershing recently upped its stake to 24% and has a history or pushing for change in its investments.

In a statement they parties said:
“Mick brings substantial expertise, financial sophistication and fresh insights to the Borders Group Board,” said Chief Executive Officer George Jones. “We are pleased to welcome him and look forward to benefiting from his involvement. His addition, and our recent election of Mike Archbold, strengthen the Borders Group Board, reflecting our continued determination to pursue the best interests of our stockholders.”

“I am optimistic about the future of Borders and look forward to working with the Board and the management team as the company executes its strategic turnaround plan,” McGuire said. “The company has many near and long-term opportunities. The plan is a sound strategic roadmap and I’m pleased to be part of a process designed to deliver value for all shareholders over the long-term.”

I still cannot see the big interest Ackman has in Borders but I just cannot wait to see how this thing shakes out.. I am sure he has big plans.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Friday’s Links

Huckabee, Detroit, Kids, Nukes

– Political opinions aside, the neat thing here is the involvement and power of youth in the process.

– One has to wonder where the US auto industry could be in these folks decided to work together say 20 or 30 years ago..

– How much does it cost to raise them?

– Nuclear energy is making a comeback, thankfully..

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Leucadia Adds to Americredit Stake

Leucadia (LUK) which acquired almost 10% of AmeriCredit (ACF) increased its stake with cal options in an SEC filing Thursday night. (

Leucadia purchased 10,000 options, representing 1,000,000 more shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) on 1/15. The options have a $9 call price and Leucadia paid $390 for them.

They expire on 3/14/08

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Harley Davidson Reduced to "Sell", Time To Buy Soon

Things are shaping up nicely for a purchase real soon.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) was downgraded to sell from hold by Citigroup (C) on Wednesday. Citi said that U.S. retail sales at the motorcycle maker may drop 10% to 12% in the current quarter. International sales also are showing early signs of moderating growth, though it said there are probably one or two quarters before it will materialize in the company’s European retail sales or shipment numbers.

I have commented on my admiration and desire to own shares in the world’s #1 motorcycle maker in the world in the past. With shares trading at levels not seen since late 2000 and early 2001, the time is getting near.

In October Harley forcasted FY 2007 EPS of $3.63 to $3.77 a share and said 2008 would see 4% to 7% growth, a 20 million share repurchase plan and increased the dividend 20%. Current earnings estimates are for $3.86 a share in 2008 or virtually flat growth. At that level shares will trade at 9.7 times earnings and yield 3%.

Next Friday HOG reports and gives guidance for 2008. I am very comfortable owning shares at this level but am going to hold off just in case they drop a bomb next week . Now if they do and shares crater, I’ll be buying. If they do not and shares rally, I will be a buyer and be out a few bucks appreciation. Right now, the markets is spooked and bad news gets far more downside action (ask Intel (INTC)) than good news does upside.

Simply put, the risk is for greater losses than gains next week. So I sit. Content either way to wait and see what happens before jumping in.

Disclosure: Long Citi, None in HOG yet…

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Merrill’s CDO Valuation Very Interesting

New Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO John Thain said something very interesting Thursday in an interview after the bank released earnings

“We had $15 billion of them (CDO’s) on the books in September and now that has been written down to $4.4 billion. Essentially they are being valued on their interest only component”. See the interview here:

This is stunning really. It also means that when the CDO market settles, the very same securities that have been eviscerated will see a surge in value. Thain also said that the CDO market was non existent in December and that recently they had sold a few of the securities.

He gave no details on the transactions but the fact there is even some liquidity in that market is good news indeed.

What has happened to the CDO markets is a bit like pricing all mortgage brokers for bankruptcy because one of them go. It is important to note that while defaults have risen, they are by no means above historical norms or in a danger area. Despite that, the entire universe of them have been hit.

This type of thing seems to happen in real estate due to its prolonged cycles. When Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett first bought into Wells Fargo (WFC) in 1990, he did so in the midst of a California housing crisis. Warren determined that bank’s value as reflected by its stock price was being unfairly tainted by the market. A “guilt by association” thing. All things housing we sold off. While many lenders at the time were suffering due to loans made, Buffett felt that while Wells would take a small hit (much smaller than anticipated), when housing recovered, it was well positioned to then capitalized. He called the classic over-reaction of the market and has since made a killing on the stock.

What is happening today is very similar to that time frame, crisis’s create opportunity….

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Fiday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Occidental Petro (OXY)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Magna (MGA)= RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY)= Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Comtech (COGO)= Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Hi-Tech Pharma (HITK)= FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
NYMEX (NMX)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Quiksilver (ZQK)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Tesoro (TSO)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Stryker (SYK)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Boeing (BA)= Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Callaway Golf (ELY)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Ctrip.com (CTRP)= Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Melco PBL Entertainment (MPEL)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Western Union (WU)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
TIBCO Software (TIBX)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Millennium Pharm (MLNM)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Alberto-Culver (ACV)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
eBay (EBAY)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Biogen Idec (BIIB)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Precision Drilling (PDS)= BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
TeleTech (TTEC)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Genomic Health (GHDX)= Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
Intervest Bancshares Corp (IBCA)= Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Sunpower (SPWR)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Gerdau AmeriSteel (GNA)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy
MicroStrategy (MSTR)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
A.M. Castle (CAS)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Jones Soda (JSDA)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Wells Fargo (WFC)= Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Daimler AG (DAI)= Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)= Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
deCODE genetics (DCGN)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
Harley-Davidson (HOG)= Citigroup Hold » Sell
Intel (INTC)= Charter Equity Buy » Mkt Perform
Silver Wheaton (SLW)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Underperform
Adobe Systems (ADBE)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Epicor Software (EPIC)= UBS Buy » Neutral
McAfee (MFE)= UBS Buy » Neutral

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Macke, Adami and Finerman all recommend buying if the market gaps significantly lower at the open in the morning.

For example, if the Dow average .DJIA 12159.21 opens down 200 points that will be a sign of capitulation. Can’t track this one…….

Thursday’s Results
Jeff Macke says buy Pfizer (PFE) = $23.40 Close $22.98 LOSS

Guy Adami likes Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)= $68.31 Close $67.83 LOSS

Karen Finerman recommends shorting Lehman (LEH)= $58.06 Close $54.66 GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks Tibco (TIBX) = $7.50 is a buy. Close $7.60 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 3-1
Jeff Macke= 4-3
Tim Seymore= 2-1
Guy Adami= 3-5
Pete Najarian= 3-3
Karen Finerman= 3-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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