Author: ToddSullivan

Not much happening this week………Look for more action as earning start rolling in during the next few weeks.

CCA Industries (CAW)= 28%

Watsco (WSO)= 22%

General Growth Properties (GGP)= 11%

Gentex (GNTX)= 11%

Atlantic Coast Federal (ACFC)= 7%

“There are many reasons insiders sells shares but there is only one reason they buy, they think the price is going up” Peter Lynch

Energy Transfer Equity (ETE)= $9,878,000

Valley Financial Corp. (VYFC)= $1,921,000

Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC)= $1,064,000

Par Pharmaceutical (PRX)= $1,043,000

Fortress International Group (FIGI)= $936,000

USAK USA Truck Inc 14.97
TMTA Transmeta Corp Del 5.15
TLAB Tellabs, Inc 9.19
SPOR Sport-Haley Inc 3.05
SBKC Security Bank Corp 11.35
RIVR River Valley Bancorp 16.90
KG King Pharmaceuticals Inc 10.86
IPII Imperial Inds Inc 4.84
HIAU Highlands Acquisition … 10.00

Just for the holiday weekend, 500,000 toys recalled due to lead paint.

35,000 “Baby Einstein” blocks were recalled today. This recall is particularly alarming since they are children’s blocks that ALWAYS end up in kids mouths.

FOXNews reported today that a total of 500,000 pieces were recalled this morning.

Oh, in case you were wondering? All 500,000 toys have the words on them “MADE IN CHINA”.

Mattell (MAT), even though they sold none of the toys is expected to issue China an apology later today.

Can’t we just throw all the suits against US companies like Sherwin Williams (SHW) that have not made lead paint in over half a century? Even the most dense of folks has to realize any kids getting poisoned today are getting so from these toys…

Want the latest lead paint litigation information? Please visit Law and More

Unintended consequences, Fox Business News,

– More proof government programs just do not work. Check out what the American’s With Disabilities Act has done to those it purported to help.

– Am I the only one who is really excited to watch the FOX Business News on October 15th?

As for the news.

I have been asked to allow my posts to appear on the site Gurufocus. I am more than happy to oblige as the site itself is one of my favorites and not a day goes by that I do not read it. I have said this before but please visit this site, the only person who suffers if you do not is yourself.

Also, the monthly newsletter is now being sold on WallStNewsletters.com. We have collaborated with other writers and because of that are able to offer them a far better prices than is currently available. We just recently launched the site so please give feedback with any issues you may encounter.

The site, Straightstocks.com is launching a newsletter soon. I have been asked to be one of the writers to contribute to it. I do not know the details yet but I know the first issue is due out any day now and I will keep readers informed.

Finally….

Value-Plays.com is being launched in the near future!!!
It will not only have my writings and thoughts but that of other writers. The key to this site is that it will offer disparate opinions so that readers can get “both” sides of the issue and then make up their minds. It will also have thew dailoy features you like such as the analyst upgrades and downgrades, fast money recap, and 52 week lows. Also, since I “do not do tech”, several of the writers do (and do it very well) and this will give the site better breadth and hopefully attract a wider audience. Again. More news as we get closer.

Here is why we need not invest based one months results.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 110,000 in September, the Labor Department said today. Just as important, August was revised to an 89,000 rise from a previous estimate of a 4,000 decline. That drop had been seen by Fed watchers as a catalyst in the Fed’s surprisingly aggressive half-point federal funds reduction last month, its first in over four years.

Apparently they forgot to count the teachers that went back to work in September? what ever the case, the market is now in a sweet spot. There is evidence that housing is still taking a toll as hiring last month in goods producing industries fell by 33,000. Included in that number: manufacturing firms cut 18,000 jobs and construction employment was down by 14,000, the fifth decline in six months.

Now, seeing that private sector job growth has been anemic, but still positive and that does give the Fed more wiggle room to cut if it wished in October although the chances of that are weak. The most likely outcome has the Fed sitting and waiting to see what happens going into the holidays. The private sector numbers do bear watching though.

We have inflation under control, Fed funds were lowered and the economy, based on the jobs numbers is looking less likely everyday to have any chance of heading into a recession. Those numbers, as they are, give the Fed total flexibility to react to events as they see fit. If you are looking at investing in US equities, what’s not to like?

We think it’ll be the best phone … this year. It will kill the iPhone,” Verizon (VZ) Wireless Chief Marketing Officer Mike Lanman said in an interview.

The Voyager, made by LG Electronics, beats the iPhone by offering faster wireless Web access. But to compete with the iPhone, which is only available to AT&T (T) subscribers, it has a large touch screen and full Web browser.

It also unveiled another LG phone, the Venus, made in black and pink, which has a phone keypad that slides out from under a touch screen. As with Voyager, it vibrates when a user taps a menu option on the screen.

Both phones have 2-megapixel cameras, and high-speed wireless connections for fast music and video downloads, and a slot for 8 gigabytes of extra memory. The iPhone has 8 gigabytes of built-in storage. Pricing was not detailed but Verizon said the phones would range from under $100 to about $400 vs. the iPhone’s $399 price tag.

Venus and Voyager both have 2-megapixel cameras, and high-speed wireless connections for fast music and video downloads, and a slot for 8 gigabytes of extra memory. The iPhone has 8 gigabytes of built-in storage. Photos are below

I don’t know that either of these are going to “kill” the iPhone but one thing is sure, now that Verizon users have an option, they will be far less likely to defect from the better network to jump to AT&T for the iPhone. I think a more likely word that should be used here is “iPhone equalizer?” The iPhone may a better product but the far superior Verizon network compared to AT&T and the lower cost of Verizon’s phones will give potential iPhone buyers serious pause.

It comes at a time when Apple is behind its own sales goal and iPhone users, so disenchanted by the AT&T network are hacking the phones to free them from it. Apple has responded by destroying those phones and lawsuits are in the process of hitting the courts for that action. All in all, while these phones will not destroy the iPhone, I think they will make Jobs actually realized what a cut throat industry he has jumped into.

For a while I have been saying that the ethanol industry is due for consolidation and it seems that the largest producer of it in the US, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) agrees.

ADM’s Chief Financial Officer Doug Schmalz said Tuesday the corn and soy bean processing giant would consider buying ethanol plants now that lower prices for the fuel have been preassuring production margins. “In general, we’ll look at all opportunitites including acquisitons,” Schmalz said at the Citi Biofuels Conference.

“We have to have properties that will fit within our network. Some plants just wouldn’t fit; others might. We’ll analyze that as they become available.”

This is where it gets real fun. We get to speculate as to what may happen. ADM will not be picking up the mom and pop ethanol collaboratives that have sprung up in recent years. When you will be producing 1.5 billion gallons of ethanol by the end of next year, picking up a 20 million gallon a year plant is a waste of your time.

That being said, when companies like Verasun (VSE) and Pacific Ethanol(PEIX) both trading a 52 week lows, the time to pick one of them up is perfect. Verasun would give ADM another 500 mgpy of production and access to an E85 infrastructure and partnerships with auto makers. Pacific Ethanol would give ADM another 300 mgpy and instant access to the potentially largest ethanol market in the US, California.

Pacific Ethanol has a market cap of $350 million and Verasun’s is $810 million so either would easily be digestible for the $21 billion ADM.

There has been way too much coming from ADM recently about expansion plans via partnerships or purchases for something not to be either in the works already or about to be. ADM, as I have said before is probably the quietest company out there. For them to actually be talking means something, most likely something very big is about to happen.

Investors have watched the stock drift for most of 2007 and I have repeatedly said to be patient and hold on (I am holding on to my shares with you). Continue to do so and by this time next year, we’ll be laughing at those who did not.

No Picks for Friday

Thursday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommends selling KB Homes (KBH). Open $28.72 Close $28.10 LOSS

Karen Finerman prefers BEA Systems (BEAS). Open $13.94 Close $13.91 LOSS

Pete Najarian likes Apple (AAPL) . Open $157.92 Close $156.24 LOSS

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 29-19 = 59%
Eric Bolling= 10-11 = 48%
John Najarian= 13-3 = 81%
Jeff Macke= 35-25 = 57%
Pete Najarian= 22-19 = 52%
Tim Seymore= 3-2 = 60%
Karen Finerman= 14-8 = 63%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 2-0 = 100%

USBE US Bioenergy Corp 6.93
CMRG Casual Male Retail Gr … 8.69
CLDN Celadon Group Inc 10.58
CHIC Charlotte Russe Hldg Inc 14.19
CALC California Coastal Cm … 11.65
BSET Bassett Furniture Ind … 10.00
BIOF Biofuel Energy Corp 4.29
USAK USA Truck Inc 14.99
TXCC TranSwitch Corporation 1.05
TMTA Transm GGC Georgia Gulf Corporation 13.15
GEE Global Entmt Corp 4.45
FMP Feldman Mall Pptys Inc 7.04
FFFD North Central Bancsha … 38.00
FBMS First Bancshares Inc Ms 21.14
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co 49.98
SPOR Sport-Haley Inc 3.18
MGPI Mgp Ingredients Inc 9.59
MFBC MFB Corp 29.56

iPhone, Pay for College, RI’s AG, Burden of proof

– Here is a great post that details how Apple (APPL)has become what it once mocked and detested

– Here is a great article on paying for college costs. If you have this coming down the road, please read it.

– Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch is up to his games again.

– Lead Paint lawsuits, if victorious would all but eliminate the “burden of proof”

“We don’t believe in a world where you have to give everything away for free.” AT&T (T) Mobility’s Mark Collins, vice-president for consumer data. Thus is the reason a Google (GOOG) phone, if it ever happens, will crush the competition.

Unlike Apple’s (APPL) iPhone that set people back an hefty penny, a Google phone that is either free or placed on a network for peanuts will have user flock to it. While many people did not make the shift to AT$T following the iPhone launch due to carrier cancellation charges, a free service would eliminate that consideration as the fee would be saved after only a month or two of service.

While the big carriers (AT&T, Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S)) may not believe in giving anything away, that’s precisely what Google believes and is wildly successful doing. Even without a network, Google can connect mobile advertisers with users based on information from its search engine and maps just as it has done on the desktop. From a customer using Google search, for example, an advertiser learns they are at the corner bakery in the center of town and it learns the person has a taste for sweets. Wireless carriers have customer information as well, but they are not a data warehouse, and do not use it the way Google does.

Google has been rumored to be bidding the $4.6 billion that may be needed to win a spectrum auction. If it does and wins, there are a few option options: continue its broadband expansion, or perhaps buy a wireless carrier, such as the listless Sprint (S). A purchase of Sprint would allow it to launch the first free ad supported nationwide phone service.

Going this route would be very expensive but Google has the pockets to absorb the initial revenue disruption transferring the revenue structure. Long term, it would be a winner as the flood of new subscribers would eventually more than compensate for the early losses that would be inevitable. How long would the program take to start? How about immediately. On Sept. 17, Google announced a Web program aimed at advertisers who have created sites for display on cell phones. Like its online ad network, Google’s AdSense for Mobile delivers ads relevant to the advertiser’s mobile audience.

I love my blackberry, hate my carrier (Sprint) and personally would do a dance were Google to purchase them. Google has still kept it’s soul (unlike Apple) and like everything else they have done, the Google Sprint combo would end up being great.