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More Evidence Dow Ag Will Not Be Sold

Dow Ag is not acting like a division of Dow Chemical (DOW) about to be sold……..good.

From the IBJ.com:

Dow AgroSciences has signed a 15-year lease that will spur construction of an 80,000-square-foot research-and-development building, to be erected adjacent to its headquarters in northwest Indianapolis. As a result, the company plans to hire dozens of additional researchers.

Dow AgroSciences’ new two-story building will be developed and owned by Indianapolis-based Browning Investments Inc., which also will be general contractor on the project. It will be in Browning’s Northwest Technology Campus.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The Indiana Economic Development Corp. offered Dow AgroSciences up to $2.4 million in performance-based tax credits and $120,000 in training grants based on the company’s hiring plans.

The local office of Los Angeles-based CB Richard Ellis served as leasing agent. The building was designed by Indianapolis-based BSA Lifestructures and will house laboratories for about 100 researchers—a combination of existing employees and new hires.

Groundbreaking will occur next month. Dow AgroSciences anticipates occupying the building by mid-2010.

The deal strengthens Dow AgroSciences’ local roots. Its parent, Midland, Mich.-based Dow Chemical Co., this year has been evaluating whether to divest the agricultural chemicals and biotech business. Dow Chemical is expected to announce its intentions for the business this summer.

Dow AgroSciences CEO Jerome Peribere declined to comment directly about whether a sale is off the table, saying it’s not his decision. But he went on to note that Dow Chemical’s financial position has improved since the first quarter, when the company was “fairly stressed.”

“Dow AgroSciences is clearly a strategic asset for the Dow Chemical Co. And the divesture of Dow AgroSciences would be, as [Dow Chemical CEO] Andrew Liveris has said several times, counter-strategic,” Peribere said.

“Therefore, the fact that Dow Chemical has restructured its balance sheet and is continuing to proceed with nonstrategic divestures, I would only comment this is all very good news for Dow AgroSciences.”

“We love being here,” Peribere added.

Peribere noted that Dow AgroSciences has been regularly expanding. Its headcount was less than 1,000 three years ago, he said, and now stands over 1,200.

This comes on the heals of a recent acquisition, and comments from the company that seemed to back off their original statements about it being on the block.

Perhaps this is some of the reason for the recent price run from $14 to $20 (up from $8 at its low), the confidence by the market this growth engine for Dow will remain not only part of it but a substantial contributor to earnings as we go forward.

Now of course until they actually come out ans say “Dow Ag is of the block”, anything is possible. But given recent statements and actions, one would have to think an outright sales at this point is remote.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

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Heckman Corp….

Was alerted by reader Enrico to the following article on Richard Heckman and the more I read, the more interested I got.

Some quick valuation numbers:
Assets= $456m (after $184m goodwill write-down on China Water assets)
Liab. = $13m
Debt = $0
Cash = $199m
M Cap = $350m

From the company’s website:

Heckmann Corporation (NYSE: HEK) is a holding company that was created to make investments in attractive businesses. The Company completed its first investment, the acquisition of China Water in October 2008, now operating as wholly-owned subsidiary, China Water & Drinks, Inc. On July 1, 2009, the Company completed its second investment, the purchase of a multi-modal water disposal, treatment, and pipeline transportation business in Texas, now operating as wholly-owned subsidiary, Heckmann Water Resources Corporation. The Company also makes strategic minority interest investments, such as its recent investment in Underground Solutions, Inc. (OTC: UGSI).

We have a strong balance sheet and seek additional acquisition opportunities as we build a worldwide enterprise. As of March 31, 2009, we had $300 million dollars in invested cash and cash equivalents. We intend to make additional investments and acquisitions as we find attractive long-term opportunities for our stockholders.

PE.com reported on the China Water deal:

Palm Desert entrepreneur Richard Heckmann is diving back into the water business, with an aim to consolidate the bottled water industry in Asia, much like he did in the United States to the tune of billions in revenue.

The former chief executive of Palm Desert-based US Filter said early Tuesday that his acquisition firm would acquire China Water and Drinks Inc. for about $625 million. Heckmann said China’s rampant groundwater pollution, coupled with its population of 1.3 billion people, provide for an ample market. About 250 companies produce and sell bottled water in China, a hefty number that Heckmann said he hopes to consolidate.

During the conference call, Heckmann said China Water ranks fifth in overall revenue among competitors in Asia, behind Coca-Cola China….

…Heckmann’s blank-check company raised $450 million in an initial public offering in November. At that time, Heckmann was coy about what companies he would be interested in buying.

“We like water, but we like everything,” he said last year.

I really like this. It is another buy for less than book value ($4.02) in a company with no debt and near 50% of the share price is cash on the books. The two businesses they have bought to this point are very good businesses. China Water is a leader in its field there (yes there was a problem with some folks there “skimming” but that has been address and their shares/warrants cancelled, hey, its China) and the Greer Exploration is a very interesting business that oil & gas companies cannot do without (a better explanation of it is in the release that follows).

CEO and Chairman Richard Heckman owns just under 12% of the outstanding shares. Goldman Sachs (GS) recently (last quarter) took a 4.7m share stake in the company.

This is a play a bit like Compass Diversified Holding (CODI). Growth will come from the businesses they buy and sell.

Here is a press release updating the current investments the corp. has made:
hek1

Agreement to buy Greer Exploration:
Heck 2

Here is the China Water Presentation:
hek


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None ….Yet

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Friday’s Links

Heckman, CMBS, Kmart,

– Great article/interview. Hat tip reader “Enrico”.

– Another reason to close the rating agencies

– This is a great idea….make the products more accessible to people will equal more sales


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Friday's Links

Heckman, CMBS, Kmart,

– Great article/interview. Hat tip reader “Enrico”.

– Another reason to close the rating agencies

– This is a great idea….make the products more accessible to people will equal more sales


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Phillip Morris International Beats,Raises, Buys Back ….

This is a great quarter…..just great…

Highlights:

  • Reported diluted earnings per share of $0.79 versus $0.80 in 2008, including the items detailed on Schedules 4 and 13
  • Excluding currency, reported diluted earnings per share up 22.5%
  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.83 versus $0.87 in 2008, including the items detailed on Schedule 12
  • Excluding currency, adjusted diluted earnings per share up 17.2%
  • Increases its forecast for 2009 full-year reported diluted earnings per share to a range of $3.10 to $3.20, from $2.85 to $3.00, which includes the Colombian Investment and Cooperation Agreement charge of $0.04 per share. Excluding currency, diluted earnings per share are projected to increase by approximately 10%-13%
  • Declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.54 during the quarter
  • Spent a total of $1.4 billion to repurchase 34.7 million shares of its common stock in the quarter
  • Announced agreements to purchase the South African affiliate of Swedish Match for ZAR 1.75 billion (approximately $222 million) and the Colombian cigarette manufacturer, Productora Tabacalera de Colombia, Protabaco Ltda. for $452 million

NEW YORK, July 23, 2009 – Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE / Euronext Paris: PM) today announced diluted earnings per share of $0.79 in the second quarter of 2009, down 1.3% from $0.80 in the second quarter of 2008, including the items detailed on the attached Schedules 4 and 13. Excluding currency, reported diluted earnings per share were up 22.5%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.83, down 4.6% from 2008 adjusted earnings per share of $0.87, including the items detailed on the attached Schedule 12.

“Adverse currency again weighed on our results, but our underlying performance continued to be robust despite the challenging economic environment,” said Louis Camilleri, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
“Indeed, on a currency neutral basis, net revenues, operating companies income and adjusted diluted earnings per share were up 8.8%, 14.9% and 17.2%, respectively. While our volume performance principally reflected consumption declines in numerous markets, share performance was strong driven by our focus on innovation. Of particular note was the improvement in our financial performance in the EU Region versus the recent past.”
2009 Full-Year Forecast
PMI increases its forecast for 2009 full-year reported diluted earnings per share to a range of $3.10 to $3.20, from $2.85 to $3.00, which includes, at current exchange rates, an unfavorable currency impact of $0.55 per share compared to $0.80 per share in the February 2009 forecast. Excluding currency, diluted earnings per share are projected to increase by approximately 10%-13%. This guidance includes a pre-tax charge of $135 million ($93 million after-tax), equivalent to $0.04 per share, relating to the Colombian Investment and Cooperation Agreement announced during the quarter, and excludes the impact of any potential future acquisitions, asset impairment and exit cost charges, and any unusual events.

Dividends and Share Repurchase Program

PMI declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.54 during the second quarter of 2009, which represents an annualized rate of $2.16 per common share.

During the second quarter, PMI spent $1.4 billion to repurchase 34.7 million shares of its common stock. Since May 2008, when PMI began its previously-announced $13 billion, two-year share repurchase program, the company has spent a total of $8.1 billion to repurchase 178.1 million shares.

Acquisitions and Agreements

On July 2, 2009, PMI announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire Swedish Match South Africa (Proprietary) Limited (SMSA) for ZAR 1.75 billion (approximately $222 million). The transaction is subject to South African regulatory approval and is expected to be completed by the end of the year. It is anticipated that the acquisition will be immediately marginally accretive to PMI’s earnings per share.

On July 10, 2009, PMI announced an agreement to purchase the Colombian cigarette manufacturer, Productora Tabacalera de Colombia, Protabaco Ltda. (Protabaco) for $452 million. The transaction is subject to competition authority approval and final confirmatory due diligence and is expected to close within six months of the announcement. The acquisition is projected to be immediately marginally accretive to PMI’s earnings per share.

As we have said here before I am using PM as a dollar devaluation play also for reasons stated here. This is a pretty simple investment. We all know the economics of tobacco are unbelievable. We also know that PM has a first class management team. So the only thing really getting in the way of continued long term gains are governments trying to get a piece of the pie. Other than that, it should be pretty clear sailing…

PM Q2 2009


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Lomg PM

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Graham and Doddsville Summer 2009

This was a particularly interesting issue for me as I find myself going down the market cap scale finding opportunity. Well worth the read…

Graham and Doddsville


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Northwestern to General Growth: "Willing to Enter Negotiations"

The news just keeps getting better and better….

Here is the applicable wording:

The two Northwestern Debtors are essentially single asset real estate entities. The formulation of a plan for these two cases should not be complicated or overly time consuming. Presumably the Debtors will desire to extend the maturities of existing loans and/or work out a consensual rate of interest with respect to the loans following their current maturity. As long as the parties negotiate in good faith and do not “drag their feet” this process should take no longer than 45 to 60 days, assuming the parties can come to an agreement. While Northwestern is not committing to any agreement with the Northwestern Debtors, Northwestern stands ready and willing to enter into negotiations in order to move the process along.

Here is the full filing:
Northwestern GGP

For more explanation, please refer to this previous post from this morning.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Holder of $1.5B in General Growth Debt: "In All Cases Mortgages Will Be Renogotiated"

They clearly cannot speak for other lenders but there is a clear trend emerging here….

Here is the very interesting disclosure:

The 2008 Facility Borrowers are, in the aggregate, cash flow positive by a significant amount after debt service and operating expenses (including agreed management fees payable to other Debtors and affiliates). On information and belief, the same is true of most of the SPE Debtors. In all of these cases, the mortgage loan will be renegotiated and the remaining creditors will be paid in full.

Full filing:
SPE GGP

Now this is far from a victory lap. A lender “willing to negotiate” a simple one year extension at a hefty interest rate really does not do anything for the cause. A minimum of three years is needed and five would be preferable. BUT, it is good to see that for the most part, heals are not being dug in and lender recognize owning the properties is not in their best interest AND there is no market to liquidate them. That only leave maturity renogotiation.

See posts on other lender willing to extend maturities….here and here


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Prudential To General Growth: "We Will Extend Maturities"

This is simply wonderful news for shareholders of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) for a slew of reasons. First, the filing:

Prudential GGP

Again for those not inclined to read the whole document here is the applicable quote:

Prudential reaffirms that it is ready and willing to take concrete steps to reach understandings with Harbor Place, 1160/1180, and Rivertown Crossing with
respect to plan treatment and reiterates that the primary issues to be resolved – extension of maturities and establishment of new market interest rates

Since April I have tried to make the case here that the best scenario for all in this case was a cram down (the extension of debt at new interest rates) and that by doing the Chapter 11 that way, all parties are made as whole as possible.

This agreement by Prudential, should it come to fruition is just that AND gives us a road map for the remainder of the process, should the Judge see fit to go that way with it. It also now put pressure on other lender to follow suit lest they then worry about perhaps receiving an inferior deal down the road as the process unwinds.

What Prudential is seeking in the filing is to simply “get it done now” and understandably General Growth wants to extend the process in order to perhaps (this is my opinion here) come to similar agreements with other lenders. It is also possible that General Growth feels they may be able to obtain a better interest rate in Chapter 11 through a cram down (typically LIBOR + 1%-3%) than what Prudential is offering. None of this has been disclosed but Prudential’s request for a “market rate” interest rate I think may be the sticking point as the original loans were probably well below what a “market rate” would be in the current environment.

Either way, this is a huge move by a lender and the exact scenario I hope to see unfold on a much larger scale as this process moves forward…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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James Grant….Circa 1996

This is a great interview and in retrospect, a bit ominous given the subject and events sine then.

James Grant 1996

Interesting answer to a question on deposit insurance:

At the bottom of the cycle in 1933, the government introduced deposit insurance. It seemed to be a great thing for the country, a long-overdue reform, and, at last, the key to the stability of the financial system. But it was at this moment when it wasn’t needed. The banking system had already been liquidated. There were no bad assets to purge because nobody was making any loans.

It was supposed to encourage risk-taking, but it didn’t work. In an anti-capitalist environment, youre not going to be very successful in encouraging risk-taking by insuring deposits. That was the ironic timing of the reform. It would stand to reason that they’d take it off at the top of the cycle when the bad loans in the future were being made.

Notoriously, deposit insurance was increased from $40,000 to $100,000 in 1980. That was a fatal increase. That got the credit boom in the real estate industry rolling along. That got every two-bit S&L in the country involved in the commercial real estate business. That was the last big increase. Even the government now knows what it means to subsidize a moral hazard

Recently the FDIC increased deposit insurance to 250K and there is talk of making it permanent…… What is that quote about history?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Thursday’s Links

Tricks, FSA, China, Whitman

– A funny bar trick to get a phone number

– More bonus “threats” from the government

7.9% GROWTH

– Marty has a great track record. Anything he says bears reading/listening to

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Thursday's Links

Tricks, FSA, China, Whitman

– A funny bar trick to get a phone number

– More bonus “threats” from the government

7.9% GROWTH

– Marty has a great track record. Anything he says bears reading/listening to

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Wells Fargo Reports…..

I’ve said it before and i’ll say it again……financials earnings are not to be taken at face value…..Until access to capital is normalized they are essentially making money off cheap gov’t funds. Because of that, saying this was a good/great quarter isn’t totally true. For what it is worth, the same can be said of every other bank also, this is not unique to Wells.

Here is the Wells Fargo (WFC) press release:
WFC Q2 2009

The stock is selling off because of the build in reserves. The expectation from WFC is that the current levels will cover losses there for the next 12-24 months. It is a guess, nothing more. We are in times that none of the managers there have gone through (or at any other banking institution) so to say “we have enough for “x” time frame” is an educated guess, nothing more.

I am still holding WFC shares (down about 10%) because I still think two years from now, there will be essentially three banks left, WFC, Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) along with thousands of players dwarfed by those three.

Why WFC? If/when Congress decides these institutions are now “to big to fail” and decides to pass legislation to make them less so, my guess is that the investment bank divisions will be the ones separated from the depository institutions. If that happens BAC and JPM will be much more adversely affected than WFC which has made a huge push into insurance services over the last year and whose recent results are less dependent on those operations.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC

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Klarman in CIT Rescue Group

The details of this are great…..for Baupost and Klarman..

HedgeFund.net reports:

A Boston hedge fund is taking part in the multibillion-dollar bailout of CIT Group.

The hedge fund, Baupost Group, has agreed to pitch in for the $2 billion bridge loan Barclays Capital put together for the commercial finance company. Century-old CIT Group is facing bankruptcy after the government rejected its request for a second bailout.

Baupost Group is a bondholder in CIT Group. In addition to the hedge fund, the $2 billion loan is comprised of private equity capital. Centerbridge, Oaktree Capital Management and Silver Point Capital Management are contributing a chunk of the financing.

Pacific Investment Management Co., headed by bond king Bill Gross, is the largest bondholder in CIT Group, followed by mutual fund company Capital Research & Management.

CIT Group is expecting to raise an additional billion. The New York company has lost $3 billion since 2008, and was granted a $2.4 billion rescue in December. CIT Group has a $75 billion asset base.

Baupost Group is run by value investor Seth Klarman, who joined the company at 25 after graduating from Harvard Business School. He has published a book on investing, and in May bought a piece of professional baseball franchise the Boston Red Sox.

Baupost Group has $16 billion in capital.

The terms are for a $3B cash injection secured by $30B in assets. The loans pay a 13% initial interest rate (10% above LIBOR with a 3% floor).

Not a bad deal at all…..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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2008 Seth Klarman Interview

Great line:

Warren Buffett once wrote that the concept of value investing is like an inoculation- — it either takes or it doesn’t — and when you explain to somebody what it is and how it works and why it works and show them the returns, either they get it or they don’t. Ultimately, it needs to fit your character. If you have a need for action, if you want to be involved in the new and exciting technological breakthroughs of our time, that’s great, but you’re not a value investor and you shouldn’t be one. If you are predisposed to be patient and disciplined, and you psychologically like the idea of buying bargains, then you’re likely to be good at it.

Seth Klarman – IIMagazine -2008


Disclosure (“none” means no position):