Categories
Articles

Can’t Decide Who To Vote For Target’s Board?

Well, there are plenty of opinions…..my thoughts at the end…

From the FT

Proxy Governance recommended that its clients vote for two of the five nominees supported by Mr Ackman’s Pershing Square funds – Jim Donald, the former chief executive of Starbucks, and Michael Ashner, a real estate executive.

It also advocated voting against Target’s proposal to reduce the size of its board from 13 to 12 members. Since shareholders have to choose between two competing proxy ballot cards, it argued that they should only return the Pershing Square card, in effect withholding votes from Target’s four nominees for re-election.

From the FT:

RiskMetrics recommended on Tuesday that clients vote for Mr Ackman and Jim Donald, the former chief executive of the coffee chain Starbucks, in board elections at Target’s annual meeting on May 28, where four members are up for re-election.

But Glass Lewis, another leading proxy adviser, said it was endorsing Target’s four nominees.

Target said it was “disappointed” with RiskMetrics’ opinion. Gregg Steinhafel, chief executive, said in a statement: “We believe RiskMetrics reached the wrong conclusion . . . We urge Target shareholders not to cast their votes solely on the basis of RiskMetrics’ report and to undertake their own analysis.”

D. F. King, the proxy solicitor working for Pershing Square, estimated that more than 40 per cent of Target’s institutional shareholders vote their shares with reference to RiskMetrics.

RiskMetrics called the proxy battle “atypical”, given the experience of both sets of board nominees, and the fact its management “appears to be universally respected”. “Unlike the majority of other contests, the object of the dissident’s campaign is not a ‘broken’ company,” it said. But it argued Target’s board would “benefit from new blood and incentives to ensure the company is able to quickly capitalise on future opportunities”.

From TheDeal.com:

Former Target board member Bill George takes issue with Ackman’s assertions. Writing a column for The Deal, George, the former CEO of Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT) and a professor of management practice at Harvard Business School, said:

“Ackman is off base in suggesting that the Target board lacks relevant expertise, with no CEO-level expertise in retail, credit cards and real estate. Target’s board includes financial experts with real estate and credit card expertise like Richard Kovacevich of Wells Fargo & Co. and Jim Johnson of Fannie Mae, and marketing experts General Mills Inc.’s Steve Sanger, McDonald’s Corp.’s Mary Dillon, and Coca-Cola Co.’s Mary Minnick.”

Whose advice to take? Simple, if you are relying on these folks to tell you what to do you have two choices:

1- Sell your shares
2- Don’t vote at all

Situations like this are the reason most shareholder control legislation or votes fail. A great number of shareholder own shares in companies they no little about and do not care to educate themselves on the details. If they did, these “advisory” firms would have little power. The simple fact that it is assumed 40% of shareholders will follow the recommendations of one of them is stunning, and sad.

This isn’t really even a tough one. If you own shares just think:

1- Are you happy with the current direction and performance of the company?
2- Do you see a clearly communicated direction/strategy from management?
3- Has mangement been professional in their opposition to Ackman’s slate?
4- Has mangement debated openly and honestly the proposals he submitted?

If you cannot answer YES to all of them, you need to vote for some type of change to the board. If you answered NO to all of them, hell, vote for his whole slate.

Whatever you do, for God’s sakes, do not do what someone else tells you to do. Take 10 minutes and think about it and make up your own mind……or do nothing..

But, just in case you want one more opinion, here are some thoughts from a previous post


Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

Categories
Articles

Seth Klarman Interview…

2009 Klarman Interview 2009 Klarman Interview todd sullivan

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Finance Business & Law seth klarman baupost


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

Wednesday’s Links

VIC West, Market Folly, Palm, Feingold

– Notes from the California Value Investing Congress (hat tip reader Aaron)

– Jay does a great job tracking the hedgies

– An Apple/Palm price war for phones?

– Democracy in Action: 1 man can block a Senate vote to honor a President……(please note sarcasm)

Disclosure (“none” means no position):
Categories
Articles

Congrats to the Folks at Stocktwits (video)

See more at Stocktwits



Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Categories
Articles

Finally Good News For Housing: Construction Plummets

We have been talking about housing here a ton lately and finally have some good news to report.

First, here is some of the previous conversations: 5/6, 5/13, 5/15

Today:

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments fell 12.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units, the lowest pace on records going back a half-century.

In a disappointing sign for the future, applications for new building permits dropped 3.3 percent to a new record low annual rate of 494,000.

Economists had expected home construction and building permits to post modest increases in April as signs that the worst collapse in housing activity in the post-World War II period was drawing to a close.

Even in last month’s big decline, there were some signs of stabilization. Construction of single-family homes rose 2.8 percent to an annual rate of 368,000, following a 0.3 percent gain in March and no change in February. The stability in single-family construction likely will be viewed as a hopeful sign that the three-year slide in housing could be bottoming out.

The weakness last month came in the more volatile multifamily sector where construction plunged 46.1 percent to an annual rate of 90,000 units after a 23 percent fall in March.

Housing construction fell 30.6 percent in the Northeast, the largest drop for any region. Housing starts dropped 21.4 percent in the Midwest and 21.1 percent in the South.

The article misses the point. We have too much supply and a permanently depressed demand situation in housing due to current foreclosures and tightened credit markets. If that is true (it is), then the ONLY way housing prices firm is for supply to be reduced.

The fastest way to do that is on the production end of the equation by slowing or stopping the rate of new homes hitting the market. This forces price firming for those new homes currently out there and also increases demand for “used” housing for sale. Is more needed? Yes. It this a step in the right direction? Yes. If it rebounds next month and rises, proving this to be a 1 month anomaly is it bad? Yes.

What would make this exceptionally good news would be for a decline in single family housing…

This needs to be a trend, not a one-off event

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

The Investment I Didn’t Make & Sick About It

The absolute worst part about it? I used its products several time a day…

In 2006 I started looking at a company called Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR). Then it traded at $12 and change (split adjusted) and was earning $.39 a share annually. I liked the coffee but it traded at a PE of 30 times earnings and despite growing revenues 40% in 2005 over 2006, a rise in expenses caused earnings to dip in 2006 over 2005. So, I decided to stay away but check in on it occasionally.

2007 rolled around and even though earnings jumped over 40% the share prices ran ahead of that and its PE that year ballooned to over 50 times earnings. Not exactly a value.

2008 came and the stock just kind of slowly drifted a bit higher while earnings jumped another 67% but, the PE still sat at 50 times earnings. Still no value.

So, why am I sick about it? It was at this point, mid 2008, I stopped watching it. Then came October 2008 and the market sell-off that took shares down to $24 each which when one considers the $1.90 they should earn this year means shares traded at 12 times earnings growing >50% a year. At this point, shares were a great value (there is of course more to the analysis of the company but I am trying to make a general point here).

Now, that is not the worst part…

You see, back in Feb. 2007 I actually wrote how McDonald’s (MCD) was going to win the coffee wars over Starbucks (SBUX) because they were using, at least in the Northeast the “Newman’s Own Organic” coffee made in conjunction with GMCR (the deal was recently extended). I apparently neglected the effect this would have on GMCR sales while focusing on McDonald’s and by extension their effect on Starbucks.

Later that year we were at a friends house and they had a “Keurig K-cup” coffee maker (the company was purchased by GMCR). My wife I used it and thought (and still do) that it was the greatest things ever made. It was so great that anyone who came to our home after inquiring as to what it was and receiving a demo from us, instantly loved it and wanted one.

We have given out no less that 5 of them as gifts with the explanation of the “great deals” GMCR gives on the coffee “that is wicked good”. Many of them in turn, have either given one as a gift OR had friends who, after seeing theirs, then got one of their own. I am doubting seriously the chance my experience is that unique to other people and that theyr are not seeing the same thing happen. BUT, I neglected to turn this into an investing idea because “GMCR was an expensive stock vs earnings”. It was, but not in October 2008 when after it just recently left my radar..

Then, in April this year GMCR signed a deal to sell the makers and coffee in thousands of Wal-Mart’s (WMT) across the US.

Today’s share price?????? $79….For those wondering why I did not buy on the Wal-Mart news, it was too late. The deal was announced after hours and the stock jumped from the $50’s to the $70’s almost instantly.

Yea….that would have been a cool 229% in 6 months in perhaps the most dreadful market in our lifetime…and it was in my cup right in front of me every single day…

Lesson? If you have a good company with a great product whose stock may be a bit expensive…..DO NOT EVER LET IT FALL OFF YOUR RADAR…….


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None……..and sick over it

Categories
Articles

Tuesday’s Links

SCOTUS, NY Times, Taxes, Denial

– This just cannot be true…..can it?

– No they don’t

– Raising them hurts………everyone

– How can this be?


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

Dow Chemical Reduces Debt, Backs off Dow Ag Sale Talk

Dow chemical (DOW) has given an update on the bridge loan it used to pay for the Rohm & Haas deal and changed the rhetoric on the possible Dow Ag sale.

At the recent annual meeting of shareholders CEO Andrew Liveris said Dow’s focus through the end of the year will be to pay down the bridge loan and deleverage the company, run the business effectively and integrate Rohm and Haas to begin growing once again.

Originally, Dow had planned have the Rohm purchase bridge loan of $9.5 billion down to a balance of $4.2 billion in 90 days. As of last Thursday the loan is now down to $3 billion, meaning $1.2 billion additional has been paid off 55 days ahead of schedule according to the company.

Dow said it continues to look at its options to sell units. In addition to over $3 billion from the sale of Morton Salt, TRN, Calcium Chloride and other units, Dow is considering raising $4 billion to $6 billion from businesses in a successor to the K-Dow Petrochemicals deal or regional agreements; $1 to $2 billion from aromatics and derivatives.

Liveris repeated the company position that AgroSciences is a growth unit that is valuable to Dow, and would only be sold if a full-value offer is made ($15 billion). they also gave the usual boilerplate disclaimer that they are “still assessing its options” to keep the business, create a joint venture or sell it outright. This is a slightly harder line on the unit that when the original announcement was made that “all options are on the table”. At that time there was very little talk of price for the unit and it was stated that there were “several” interested parties.

I don’t think it is a great leap to assume those parties perhaps assumed they could pick up an incredibly valuable asset on the cheap from a distressed seller. I think it is also the reason not long after we saw both the equity and debt offerings and no additional mention of a DowAg sale. If the above is true, then Liveris does deserve kudos for not dumping the unit and holding firm on price. All that being said, even a full value sale of it is unacceptable.

The joint venture makes sense and since they already have one with Monsanto (MON), they would be a powerful partner. It would aid in cost reductions/capex and produce the clear industry powerhouse. what would remain would be looking at the composition of it.

Dow also announced today that it will increase the off schedule price in all regions for the product lines of both Acrylic Monomers and Vinyl Acetate Monomers effective June 1, 2009, or as contracts allow. The increases are $0.03/lb or $66/MT for Acrylates and Vinyl Acetate Monomers and $0.04/lb or $88 MT for Methacrylate and Specialty Monomers. This too is good news as price increases do mean some demand is coming back into the system.

Now, it is only 1 increase and we need to see if it sticks and if other products follow suit. Never the less, it is good news.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, none

Categories
Articles

Margins Levels vs S&P 500

“Davidson” comments on this and I have some after the image.

This chart of the record of use of margin debt by Hays Advisory reveals a fascinating view of the relationship of the SP500 vs. Margin Yr/Yr Change and the signals provided for tops and bottoms.

This chart says volumes regarding the effects of investors’ appetites for risk, how rapidly it can build and signal tops, how the rise in risk appetite can signal market recovery.

This is an interesting relationship and one that makes sense regarding market attitudes at tops and bottoms. The current rise in margin debt does fit other leading indicators which suggest changes in investor attitudes.

This is in my view a useful as well as fascinating indicator to watch.

This does bear close watching. I would focus on the relationship since the explosion of the “guy next door” investor. It, in my opinion gives a better sample of behavior.

If we accept that and use it as a guide, then the last recession was the 2001-2002 on. Looking at the peaks in the market in both 2001 ans 2008, the both correlate almost exactly with the peak in margin debt. This makes sense because margin selling is fast and furious so as it fell, the market would follow violently.

But, we are not interested in that now are we? We want to know about bottoms. Again going back to 2001-2002, we see a lag from when margin debt begins to again increase until the market turns. This also makes sense as recently burned buyers will tip-toe back into the market using margin gingerly and that means any rally will lag their entry.

Using that as a guide, it looks as though we can look for the market to gain more permanent footing in 6 months to a year. Now, while I do not as a rule place too much faith in charts, margin charts are useful because they go directly to investor sentiment. A confident investor is more likely to use larger margin amounts to purchase stocks that one who is pessimistic about the future.

Like any indicator this is not perfect and does bear close watching. It does give us more confidence though that the worst of the market may be over but, a true recovery in equities may be of a bit….


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

Monday’s Links

Law, Stewart,  Pelosi, 

– Sooner or later people are going to see all this for what it is..

– I agree with him here…

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M – Th 11p / 10c
The Pageant of the Christ
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Economic Crisis Political Humor

– when CNN goes after a Dem, you know it is bad…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

Berkowitz Files 13-HR: Adds More Sears Holdings

Berkowitz has been busy buying in his Fairhome Fund (FAIRVX)

Added:
American Express (AXP), 10 million shares
Sears Holdings (SHLD), 2 million shares
St. Joe (JOE), 7 million shares

Reduced (number shares sold):
Canadian Natural Resources, (CNQ) 9 million shares
United Health (UNH), 5 million shares

Sold Out:
Bekshire Hathaway “B” shares (BRK.B)
Mueller Water Procuts (MWA)

Fairholme Q1

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Finance Business & Law fairholme bruce berk


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

AutoNation: Closings Represent 0% of Operating income

Mike Jackson of AutoNation (AN) commented today on the GM (GM) closings announced.

ORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., May 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — AutoNation, Inc.
(NYSE: AN), American’s largest automotive retailer, today announced that
General Motors notified AutoNation that six of its dealerships were identified
for potential closing by GM. The notification is part of GM’s communication
today to approximately 1,100 dealers that GM does not expect to continue as GM
dealerships past October 2010. The AutoNation stores potentially impacted by
the consolidation plan represent 0% of AutoNation’s 2008 operating income.
AutoNation does not believe that any one-time charges that may be associated
with these actions will be material to its continuing operations or debt
covenants.

Commenting on the consolidation plan, Mike Jackson, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer, said, “We believe GM’s consolidation plan is a difficult but
positive step that will strengthen America’s dealer network and improve dealer
profitability over the long term. The consolidation plan is consistent with
AutoNation’s long-term strategy that we implemented in 2000 to consolidate
domestic dealerships and realign our brand mix more towards import and premium
luxury franchises. With our financial and operational strength and diversified
brand mix, we are well-positioned to succeed in the rapidly changing automotive
retail landscape.”

Have been saying for a while now this would be helpful for AutoNation (AN) in allowing for it to expedite its domestic reduction plans. What remains to be seen is what is happening around them. 1100 GE dealers closed by the end of 2010, mostly in metro areas leaves a lot of competition be be shuttered.

Will update as soon as I get word…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

Categories
Articles

Ackman Files 13-HR: Adds YUM! Brands

Notable activity for Q1 2009 vs Q4 2008.:

Added:
Yum! Brands (YUM) : >1.5 million shares
General Growth Properties approx. 3 million more shares

Reduced:
Visa (V), sold almost 5 million shares

Sold out:
Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS)

Pershing Q1

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Finance Business & Law pershing square bill


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Categories
Articles

Buying News Corp…… Finally

Finally took the plunge and bought the “limited voting” A shares at $8.86 of News Corp. (NWSA) vs the “B” shares (NWS)

Here is some of the reasoning for News Corp from previous posts

Why the “limited voting” shares vs “B”?

Couple reasons.

1- Murdoch owns 40$ of the voting shares so buying “B” shares really affords the purchaser no advantage as what Ruppert wants, Ruppert will get.

2- Discount. Currently the A shares trade at about a 13% discount to the regular (NWS) shares. Now, that discount has typically been around 8% so I am adding a 5% normalization of value into the mix.

3- Dividends between the two shares are treated equally.

Here is the SEC filing regarding the two classes of shares:
News Corp. A vs B

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Finance Business & Law news corp todd sulli

Here is the “Murdoch Agreement”:
“Murdoch Agreement”

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Finance Business & Law news corp. todd sull

So, if you have “x” amount of money to invest in the stock, the “A” shares are the way to go as they enable you to, as today’s prices purchase 13% more share and participate is essentially equal performance. I am assuming this is the reason they were created, the ensure Ruppert’s control of the company was not challenged. Personally, given his track record, I have no reason to want to.

I have saved some money in case we get a sell-off in shares, if that happens, I will resume buying on the way down.

So there it is, will update later.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long NWSA, none in NWS

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Links: Friedman on Free Markets


Disclosure (“none” means no position):