Twitter % ETf’s, Insanity, CNBC, BJ’s
– You need to know the risk
– Perfect, now “global warming victims” can sue
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– Have shopped here every weeks for 3 years and did not pull the trigger
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
Biden, China, Hockey, Stocks
– Does anyone else think Obama is saying to himself “what was I thinking!!??”
– From Roubini
– The year’s best
– Let’s not get carried away with the rally
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
While I am not optimistic short term, I am not nearly as dire as Rogers. But, in the interest of giving readers multiple points of view, here you go.
Jim Rogers on Glenn Beck
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
In a just filed SEC 13G/A Fairholme Capital (FAIRX) disclosed it now holds 14.5 million shares or nearly 12% of Sears Holdings (SHLD)
This is up from 12.7 million shares reported as of 12/31.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, none
I am hoping Target (TGT) shareholders are getting sick of the current strategy by management of sitting back and doing nothing, because those are the results operations are getting.
Here are the latest retail figures.
Here is my problem. Wal-Mart (WMT) has gone back to its “low price” message with consumers and clearly it has worked. They cut back expansion plans and plowed that money into improving existing locations. Sears Holdings is currently in a big push for its appliance sales and internet and both are working. Target, has gone, well, fetal.
Now, the environment out there is clearly very tough, of that there is no doubt. But Target has gone from outperforming Wal-Mart to getting lapped by it. It is one thing to have sales sliding and to be taking steps to stop or reverse it and it is another entirely to do nothing about it.
Curling up in a ball and “waiting for economic conditions to improve” is not a strategy. We may not see actual economic growth until late 2010-2011. Are shareholders prepared to wait until then? Is the theory that people will just return to Target when things get better? Is it a case of current (and becoming entrenched) shopping patterns being reversed without any effort on managements’s part?
Recessions are where the best management shows as they use it as an opportunity to expand market share and entrench their brand with the consumer. Now, Target COULD do those things if they freed up some more cash. IF they choose to put even some of Bill Ackman’s idea to work, that cash would be there.
If I had wrote here last year that at this time this year there would be more positive news coming out of Sears than Target people would have said I was insane, yet that is precisely what is happening now.
Target shareholders are lucky in that they have a real viable option to them other than selling shares. They can elect Ackman’s slate of nominees to the Board and start to see some changes at Target, or, they can do what management is and do nothing….and get nothing..
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, WMT, none
With natural gas at insanely low levels, there is value in the sector. I have a potential play on it.
Here is a fantastic post on the inevitable natural gas price spike courtesy of Chris Nedler at getREALlist
Here is the basics on supply/demand/pricing from the post:
Now I am seeing the same pattern in natural gas (or as traders sometimes call it, “natty”), only the danger of constrained supply is possibly even greater, since about 84% of US natural gas consumed is produced domestically and there is very little storage throughout the system.
Gas prices have plunged 72% from their record of over $13 per Mcf1 to $3.75 on Monday, taking it all the way back to 2002 pricing. (The spot price for natural gas has only fallen below $4 once since 2002, in September 2006.)
All that got me to thinking. How to play gas? I could go with the producers of it but since most of them can’t make money with gas under $6, an 80% rally in natural gas prices would do little for their fortunes (except keep them from Chapter 11).
I could play natural gas itself but it can rally to a level and just sit there while affiliated stock keep making money for shareholders.
We can substitute oil for natural gas and all of the above would be true also.
What then? Oil Well Services and Equipment. All producers need serviced on existing wells and close wells. When prices rebound, the corresponding increase in well activity will be a boon for these companies.
Enter Exterran Holdings, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EXH).
From the 10K:
We are a global market leader in the full service natural gas compression business and a premier provider of operations, maintenance, service and equipment for oil and natural gas production, processing and transportation applications. Our global customer base consists of companies engaged in all aspects of the oil and natural gas industry, including large integrated oil and natural gas companies, national oil and natural gas companies, independent producers and natural gas processors, gatherers and pipelines.
We operate in three primary business lines: contract operations, fabrication and aftermarket services. In our contract operations business line, we own a fleet of natural gas compression equipment and crude oil and natural gas production and processing equipment that we utilize to provide operations services to our customers. In our fabrication business line, we fabricate and sell equipment that is similar to the equipment that we own and utilize to provide contract operations to our customers.
We also utilize our expertise and fabrication facilities to build equipment utilized in our contract operations services. Our fabrication business line also provides engineering, procurement and construction services primarily related to the manufacturing of critical process equipment for refinery and petrochemical facilities, the construction of tank farms and the construction of evaporators and brine heaters for desalination plants.
In what we refer to as “Total Solutions” projects, we can provide the engineering design, project management, procurement and construction services necessary to incorporate our products into complete production, processing and compression facilities. Total Solutions products are offered to our customers on a contract operations or on a turn-key sale basis. In our aftermarket services business line, we sell parts and components and provide operations, maintenance, overhaul and reconfiguration services to customers who own compression, production, gas treating and oilfield power generation equipment.
Why Exteran?
Valuation:
Even after writing off $1.1 billion in Gooodwill due to market conditions in Q4, Exterran still sports a book value of $32 a share. At the current $17 share price it trades at 53% of book. Cash flow and cash on hand are steady.
Stock Repurchase Program.
On August 20, 2007, our board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $200 million of our common stock through August 19, 2009. In December 2008, our board of directors increased the share repurchase program, from $200 million to $300 million, and extended the expiration date of the authorization, from August 19, 2009 to December 15, 2010. See further discussion of the stock repurchase program in Note 15 to the Financial Statements. Since the program was initiated, we have repurchased 5,416,221 shares of our common stock at an aggregate cost of approximately $199.9 million. See Part II, Item 5 (“Market for Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities”) of this report for information regarding our fourth quarter 2008 repurchases.
Ownership:
Nearly 45% of the stock is owned by 5 groups including 8% by ValuePlays favorite Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group.
Now, is this a “run out and buy some”? I don’t think so but I am keeping it high on the radar list. While both oil and natural gas are at unsustainably low levels. History tells us they can remain there for some time. It also tells us that the recovery to appropriate levels can be swift and violent.
As Nedler says:
The time it takes to raise capital for new drilling, deploy rigs, and start producing again after gas prices rise is a golden window of opportunity for investors. As long as marginal capacity remains in a razor-thin range, prices will stay high and low-cost producers will be rolling in profits again.
While it’s impossible to say when the US economy will recover and bring natural gas prices back into sustainable territory, I am confident that for those with at least a one-year investing horizon, there is no better time than now to begin accumulating those positions.
One has to watch economic activity for sign. Q1 will be reported in May and by then more data will be available as to global conditions. It is important to note this is not a pure US play but a global one. As global conditions improve, so ought Exterran’s.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
There is an investment thesis here. We just need the backround first.
“Davidson” submits:
You may wonder why I have sent you something about sunspots.
I do so because with my background, BA Geology, PhD Physical Organic Chemistry and MBA Finance, I am always looking for those threads of information that will help us make better decisions. Even something that looks off the beaten path can be eye opening such as this piece I found in Don Coxe’s recent commentary. Don’s full commentary is attached.
Don is a macro thinker and provides his views on the appropriate investments. I do not do this, but prefer to use the best investment managers I can locate and let the managers handle the details on individual security selection. My goal is to balance them in an allocated portfolio and then monitor and rebalance the portfolio vs. the asset class Return/Risk relationships.
I think Don is right to consider this information as part of the investment discussion even though its impact on our future is not clear. What may be an obvious play on energy could easily be translated into discoveries yet unknowable and result in new investment directions. Julian Simon discussed the power of human intellect in his “The Ultimate Resource 2” in solving seemingly insurmountable problems.
What is clear to me is that the current mania regarding global warming does not have science on its side and that any massive climate initiative should be approached with greater study. Having a scientific background leads me to look for cause and effect. I do this in investing and providing direction to clients. Often I find that stepping back a few more feet to view the wider picture proves illuminating. I think Coxe’s focus on sunspots and the known connection to global temperature cycles is well worth reading.
The source for all charts is the web site: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html I added the chart for sunspot activity history from 1845-Present to provide you with perspective..gif)
Don Coxe’s Section on Global Cooling:
Since we last published, the sunspots have been scarce and small, and the most respected measures of global climate show a strong cooling trend in this decade.
(The projections for future sunspot activity are from the two best-known sunspot research centres. For two years, they have been moving them forward as the sunspots disappoint the astronomers by failing to return.)
As clients know, we use our study of history to compare popular views about economics, finance, geopolitics with evidence of what has happened in previous eras.
As all scientific studies have shown, since the early 19th Century, the world has warmed up. Previously, the world went through roughly two centuries of serious global cooling. Whether by coincidence or not, sunspot activity during those centuries was extremely low..gif)
Outside the Tropics, the world was cold. Example: Scotland suffered six straight crop failures during the 1690s because of late Springs and early frosts. Some historians believe this was the major reason why the Scots gave up their dreams of independence and joined England. There were skating parties on the Thames each winter. Polar ice caps expanded dramatically.
Then, in the early 19th Century, the sunspots returned. The pattern: ten years of sunspot activity, a year of rest, then a new cycle.
The last sunspot cycle ended on schedule in 2006. Also on schedule, there was minimal or no sunspot activity in 2007. Not to worry, said the global warmists: they’ll be back next year.
They didn’t come back in 2008. They haven’t returned so far this year. In retrospect, the record-breaking day-long super-spectacular series of 174 sunspot explosions on Bastille Day in July 2001 was the equivalent of Gandalf’s fi reworks display for Bilbo Baggins’s 111th birthday, which ended Bilbo’s ownership of the Ring. Astronomers still speak with awe of the sunspots that day. Satellite and radio communications across the world were devastated, and the Aurora Borealis was seen as far south as Texas. Almost immediately, sunspot activity began to dwindle, and then the spots completely disappeared in 2007. Periods of high sunspot activity didn’t reach the levels seen in the 1980s and 1990s. Minimums were lower. Then the sunspots virtually disappeared.
They haven’t come back, which means we are experiencing the longest sunspot drought in more than two centuries. As NASA notes, solar wind activity is at a fifty-year low. As other astronomers have noted, that decline in solar wind could be the factor that has dramatically reduced the depth of our atmosphere. Earth has had, for most of the time that we could measure such things, 400 miles of atmosphere between ground level and the Absolute Zero temperatures of outer space. We’re down to 250 miles.
As the science writer of the Telegraph put it, we are 150 miles closer to outer space than we were at the dawn of the Space Age.
As clients are well aware, we are infl uenced by the work of astronomers dating back to the Astronomer Royal, William Herschel, who two centuries ago demonstrated a correlation between the price of corn (wheat), and changes in sunspot activity. So we have watched with growing interest as astronomers report surprise at the failure of the sunspots to return.
The Victorian scientists would have swiftly said that the two cold winters we have been experiencing were inevitable, given the collapse in sunspot activity. There hasn’t been such sustained spotlessness on the sun for so long that it seems that the global warmists came to believe that those earlier Minimums were freakish occurrences.
Historians learn to take history as it is reported, and not to impose their own prejudices on it. We believe it highly likely that the temperate zones of the world—where most people and most grains come from—will experience notably cooler weather this year, which could imperil key crops.
Last year, according to some preliminary climatological surveys, the world temperature fell one degree Fahrenheit, the biggest one-drop for which we have authoritative records apart from the short-term cooling after Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991.
That temperature decline seems to have continued through winter, which has been severe in many regions. It is, as of now, the 10th coldest in Chicago’s history.
Snow has been reported as far south as Malibu. The Pacific Northwest—including Seattle, Vancouver and Victoria—has suffered the kind of snow and ice storms that more resemble New England than the balmy Pacific Coast. London had one of its biggest snowstorms in decades. Louisiana had a severe snowstorm in December that closed the major bridge across the Mississippi, backing up traffic for miles in either direction.
The University of Illinois Climate Research Centre, which researches ice caps and sea ice in the polar regions (“The Chryosphere”), has for years been reporting on the shrinkage of sea ice. When they took their annual year-end portraits of the poles, they were amazed: In just four months, the sea ice had expanded dramatically, and the total ice was now back to the average level of the past thirty years.
But, (you may say), I’ve read the reports on the Arctic ice cap shrinkage and I know that we face a crisis. One of the best-known reports is published by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, whose work was influential in the move to declare polar bears an endangered species. The Institute kept reporting this year that the ice was still disappearing, and its reports kept getting printed.
The Page 16 story came in mid-February when the Institute had to confess that “sensor problems” had given some misleading readings. In fact, they had managed to miss 193,000 square miles of sea ice, an area 18% larger than California.
Our take on all this is that the global warmists have such control over the universities, politics and media, that discussion of the possibility of a new period of global cooling is treated as something between hysteria and voodoo. Therefore, farmers and agricultural planners are making no provision for the possibility that this growing season could be far more challenging than last year. And, based on the historical evidence, cooling is cumulative: if the spots don’t return, next year is likely to be more problematic for farmers than this year.
’Twas ever thus. Our knowledge of sunspots dates back to Galileo and the records of sunspots have been kept since his time. He wasn’t permitted by the Elites of his time to say publicly that the earth revolved around the sun. The Vatican no longer claims that kind of authority, but the Scientific Left (if that is not an oxymoron) does.
One of Galileo’s contemporaries, Montaigne, expressed his exasperation about the way science was treated. “We parrot whatever opinions are commonly held, accepting them as truths, with all the paraphernalia of supporting arguments and proofs, as thought they were something firm and solid…Thus the world is pickled in stupidity and brimming over with lies.” That could describe today’s situation whenever the subject of global warming is discussed publicly.
This could be the ultimate Page 16 story.
On the other hand, it may be, as Henry Ford so vociferously maintained, that
“History is bunk.”
Full Report:
Donald Coxe BMO Basic Points 3 2009
Investment recommendations on page 41 of report…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
REIT’s, Vornado, Hoover, Kindle
– Maybe not so bad?
– More positive news?
VNO Letter
– Was he “hands off“?
– This just does not make sense
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
The call focused on one company in the Fairholme fund Pfizer (PFE). On the call was Jeff Kindler the CEO of Pfizer and Frank D’Amelio, CFO of Pfizer along with Fairholme’s (FAIRX) Berkowitz.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
Read this yesterday and just have to comment.
“We can no longer stand by and watch others walk off with our work under misguided legal theories,” Dean Singleton said at a meeting this week of the Newspaper Association of America (NAA) in San Diego, California.
Singleton’s battle cry came just a few days after News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch launched a broadside against Internet giant Google (GOOG), whose Google News website is one of the most popular news aggregators on the Internet.
“Should we be allowing Google to steal all our copyrights?” asked Murdoch, the owner of newspapers in Australia, Britain and the United States, where his holdings include The Wall Street Journal and New York Post.
“Thanks, but no thanks,” the News Corp (NWS). chairman said.
Robert Thomson, the managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, used even harsher language than his boss in describing the situation.
“There is no doubt that certain websites are best described as parasites or tech tapeworms in the intestines of the Internet,” Thomson said in an interview with the newspaper The Australian.
“It’s certainly true that readers have been socialized — wrongly I believe — that much content should be free,” he said. “And there is no doubt that’s in the interest of aggregators like Google who have profited from that mistaken perception.”
Google News and blogs are not the reason newspapers are going under at a record rate. Well, at least not for the reason newspaper folks would have you believe. Let’s be honest, at least when Google uses content, it has the civility to link to the originator. Even when a blog (most of them) use content, they will link to original. How often do we see article in major publications that mirror something written on a blog previously that receives no mention?
Let’s put that aside though. The physical newspaper is dead. It just is. By the time it arrives on my doorstep it is virtually worthless. The newspapers themselves syndicate their content through the likes of twitter that allow me to see articles as they are created. Why do I need a physical paper to then see it again the next day?
The problem is that newspapers have not figured out how to make money online in part because they still hang onto a business model near a century old. The news here isn’t that their extinction is happening, it is that it hasn’t already done so.
I look at my Boston Globe. Other than the sports section, it is utterly useless. The national news is simply syndicated from AP, content I can find in infinite places. The business section barely serves as useful litter box liner. That leaves the “local” news. Now, I live 30 minutes outside of Boston (to the west). Problem is the “Globe West” section apparently thinks anything more than 5 miles outside of Boston to the west is the Berkshires and has no relevant content. Because of that, I get the very local Westborough News that contains content that pertains to me.
If Globe owners wanted to make money, ditch the rest of the paper and just publish a sports/coupon section.
While I do not have specific knowledge of papers outside my state, I cannot imagine the above scenario is specific to here.
Now, regarding the “free” content comments. Where is most of the original content coming from today? Blogs. They are indeed free. If Microsoft (MSFT) reports earnings, I can find that information anywhere including their press release (which is free). Why do newspapers feel I should pay for them to regurgitate it to me? What is of value is commentary on it (which very few if any papers do) and that is where blogs have filled the void and thus the explosion of their importance.
Now, I have been quoted countless times in newspapers over the past two years and to date none have offered to pay me for my content when they do. Perhaps they feel they are dong me a favor? They are by the way, just as others are when they syndicate with attribution their content.
If the more valuable medium if free, then how do they expect to charge for less?
If newspapers were smart, they would start buying blogs and paying the bloggers. They could let them remain independent regarding content and wrap them under an ownership umbrella. Then they could profit from the cross traffic they generate and consolidate advertising revenues as well as give the bloggers more access to information (which many now cannot afford) that would enable them to increase the quality of their efforts.
Just my two cents..
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
This is good stuff. Hat tip to reader Christopher for the find. Note the success of the appliance division. Three consecutive quarters of market share growth.
Bill Kiss, the divisional vice president of marketing planning and program development at Sears Holdings talks about today’s challenges.
PROMO: How have you positioned the Sears brand to deal with this economy?
KISS: We really think we struck a chord with the new tag line by being very mindful of the economic condition, but in an inspiring way. We think the tag line builds off our brand equities. Even in today’s economy, people have dreams for a better life. We think that’s where we can intersect and not just be the low priced guy out there.
P: What is the most effective type of promotion you use to get people into stores?
K: It’s getting at that value proposition within the different categories and understanding what that customer driver is and making sure we deliver against it to get customers in the door. At the end of the day we think that’s the richer way of getting people in stores.
P: Can you offer an example?
K: In home appliances we’re price matching and we have brag statements. We just bought Bosch and their line of refrigerators and we’re doing a presale online before it hits the store. We’re using multiple executions against that, but TV is probably one of the most powerful ways of getting that message out there.P: How has you Blue Appliance Crew campaign working?
K: About the time the Blue Appliance Crew TV spots began, we started seeing results and we have reported our third consecutive quarter where we have taken market share. It’s beyond just what is the price and what is the product. It’s a more engaging story told in an interesting way to get people to engage in the experience.P: What is the most effective type of promotion you use to drive people online?
K: Static banner ads are yesterday. Coming up with engaging interesting things in digital advertising is the most compelling way to draw people into the franchise. We test multiple messages and that’s the beauty of online. On one end of the spectrum we may go with a price and product static ad and at the other end something very visually stimulating, like the Sears Blue Appliance Crew waving you in or rich video that was part of the commercial campaign. Something disruptive to catch your eye, then pull you in and then draw out the proof points of the campaign. That’s an emerging best practices of ours we think works.P: What are your top methods for determining marketing ROI?
K: It does depend on the vehicle. When you have direct mail, we know who you are and can track you in a wide range from voice of customer to actual results. When we do research or when we get customer feedback we take that into consideration. Everything comes down to how she behaves and how does that translate into sales in store and online.P: Have the demographics of the audience you target changed at all?
K: We have a clear understanding of who our target is, but we’re describing them as today’s American family, whose focus is on home and family. Being able to articulate that with a robust description that the entire organization can rally around we think is power. It hasn’t changed all that significantly, but this is our way of expressing our customer.P: What is Sears’ position on social marketing?
K: We do have an appetite for the social marketing space because it’s customer centric. There’s great conversation out there and we’re looking for meaningful ways to engage. We have the Sears2go capability that allows people to buy off their mobile phones and then pick up at the store. All these things are what customers are showing us. If they’re on the phone, how can we be there too?P: When talking about marketing the Sears brand today, what have been the biggest challenges?
K: It is really about how do we adapt and be nimble and quick. That’s been the challenge. How do we listen and react in our messages and promotions to make sure we are really relevant.P: What keeps you up at night?
K: If you really want to stay in lockstep with your customer, it’s about understanding our customer and how do we move fast enough to respond. It’s read and react. If there’s something that’s pressuring them, how do we as an organization respond? During the last holiday season, Kmart had a phenomenal success with layaway. Part of the strategy was we came out with it early and based on that success we knew that something had broken through with the customer. We quickly adapted that program at Sears and brought it to life. What’s the next mouse trap? That’s what keeps us up at night as marketing leadership.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
Wilbur Ross talks about GM (GM) and Chrysler with AutoNation’s (AN) Mike Jackson on CNBC.
Ross has a fascinating quote on bankruptcy as it related to a few dissident GM bondholders. Ross said “bankruptcy is about forcing the will of the majority on the dissident minority” as it related to the type of restructuring.
This goes to my General Growth Properties (GGP) thesis that in bankruptcy (Chapter 11) the common remains whole. Right now a majority of bond holders have tentatively agreed to postpone payments to talk about restructuring the debt. What we have in this situation a few bondholder holding up the works for the majority. The bankruptcy in this instance would be about forcing the holdout bondholders to restructure as is the will of the others.
There is no talk of debt to equity conversion, just debt restructuring as it related to GGP.
Here is the video:
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGP, none
Krauthammer, AutoZone, Merrill Lynch, WSM
– People are not paying attention out there
– Anyone hear CNBC talking about Eddie Lampert’s great investment? They are all over him every time one falls a spec…
– Thank you for the mention.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
Dow Chemical (DOW) filed its 8K regarding tis agreement to sell it s recently acquired Morton Salt division.
Morton had annual sales last year of $1.2bn and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $270m meaning Dow received 6.2 times EBITDA for the asset, a very good price especially in the current environment.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow
This should not qualify as news..
Faber said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may drop as much as 10 percent before resuming gains.
The measure may decline to about 750 and rebound after July, Faber, 63, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. Global stock markets are unlikely to fall below their October and November lows, he said.
“We need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10 percent, and after that we can maybe rally more into July,” said Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. “The economic news, while it won’t be good, the rate of getting worse will slow down.”
5% to 10%? we have been seeing swings like that on a weekly basis this year. Investors should be surprised if we do not see a swing that large, especially after the run. Saying it “needs” to happen is almost insane. Given the run the markets have had, dropping 5% is virtually irrelevant and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone other than the congenitally optimistic who thinks we might not see more than that. Hell, I would not be surprised if we do not see 5% by Friday now that we are in earnings season.
This is a “gimme” prediction from Faber so he can sit back and boast when it happens and say “I was right”.
I predict the sun will rise tomorrow…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):