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Starbucks New Moto: "Now We’re The Most Expensive in Instant Too!!"

This is a joke……. Not too long from now business school students will be doing case studies on the “destruction of the Starbucks (SBUX) brand”.

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Remember this memo?

Over the past ten years, in order to achieve the growth, development, and scale necessary to go from less than 1,000 stores to 13,000 stores and beyond, we have had to make a series of decisions that, in retrospect, have lead to the watering down of the Starbucks experience, and, what some might call the commoditization of our brand.

Many of these decisions were probably right at the time, and on their own merit would not have created the dilution of the experience; but in this case, the sum is much greater and, unfortunately, much more damaging than the individual pieces. For example, when we went to automatic espresso machines, we solved a major problem in terms of speed of service and efficiency. At the same time, we overlooked the fact that we would remove much of the romance and theatre that was in play with the use of the La Marzocca machines. This specific decision became even more damaging when the height of the machines, which are now in thousands of stores, blocked the visual sight line the customer previously had to watch the drink being made, and for the intimate experience with the barista. This, coupled with the need for fresh roasted coffee in every North America city and every international market, moved us toward the decision and the need for flavor locked packaging. Again, the right decision at the right time, and once again I believe we overlooked the cause and the affect of flavor lock in our stores. We achieved fresh roasted bagged coffee, but at what cost? The loss of aroma — perhaps the most powerful non-verbal signal we had in our stores; the loss of our people scooping fresh coffee from the bins and grinding it fresh in front of the customer, and once again stripping the store of tradition and our heritage? Then we moved to store design. Clearly we have had to streamline store design to gain efficiencies of scale and to make sure we had the ROI on sales to investment ratios that would satisfy the financial side of our business. However, one of the results has been stores that no longer have the soul of the past and reflect a chain of stores vs. the warm feeling of a neighborhood store. Some people even call our stores sterile, cookie cutter, no longer reflecting the passion our partners feel about our coffee. In fact, I am not sure people today even know we are roasting coffee. You certainly can’t get the message from being in our stores. The merchandise, more art than science, is far removed from being the merchant that I believe we can be and certainly at a minimum should support the foundation of our coffee heritage. Some stores don’t have coffee grinders, French presses from Bodum, or even coffee filters.

Now that I have provided you with a list of some of the underlying issues that I believe we need to solve, let me say at the outset that we have all been part of these decisions. I take full responsibility myself, but we desperately need to look into the mirror and realize it’s time to get back to the core and make the changes necessary to evoke the heritage, the tradition, and the passion that we all have for the true Starbucks experience. While the current state of affairs for the most part is self induced, that has lead to competitors of all kinds, small and large coffee companies, fast food operators, and mom and pops, to position themselves in a way that creates awareness, trial and loyalty of people who previously have been Starbucks customers. This must be eradicated.

So, this was the “new” direction Howard Schultz was taking the company in March 2007.

Fast forward….

From the NY Times:

Starbucks is moving into the instant coffee market as it works to shake off its reputation as a seller of expensive coffee drinks.

The company, based in Seattle, plans to unveil Via instant coffee on Tuesday and make it available next month.

Starbucks says Via was in development for 20 years and replicates the taste of its coffee. Three single-serve Via packets will cost $2.95, and 12 packets will be $9.95.

The move pits the company, which already sells its coffee beans in grocery stores and in its own shops, against giant food sellers with established instant coffee brands, including Nestle, the maker of Nescafe, and Kraft Foods, the maker of Sanka.

Instant coffee, which Starbucks says has a $17 billion global market, was more popular decades ago in the United States and remains a staple in parts of Europe and Asia.

“Starbucks is trying to go where the customer is,” Tom Forte of the Telsey Advisory Group said.

Starbucks is “giving a customer an opportunity to experience the brand at a lower price point,” Mr. Forte said. “The company is being aggressive in trying to generate sales in an increasingly weak economic environment.”

Simple analysis is that Starbucks once again has no idea about its market. “20 somethings” do not “trade down” to instant because a Starbucks label is slapped on the package. Nor will your 80 year grandmother switch from her Folgers to pay 3 times as much for Starbucks instant. Mystifying…

This does not move the needle on people’s thought process from “expensive” to “value”. It moves it from “quality” to “crap”. Somewhere McDonalds (MCD) exects are laughing their asses off on this one

Nice job Howard….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none

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"Mark to Market" ….It Continues

A follow-up to my recent post.

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Tradefast Says:

To my point- it isn’t just the market for stocks and snow shovels which exhbit cyclical/predictable patterns. These patterns are also apparent in the market for physical business assets – plant and equipment.

Pick a major steel company, a paper company, a chemical company (without loss of generality)- if the company had to dispose of all their plants at the bid side of today’s market, would any of these companies be solvent. Why? Because the bid/ask spread for these physical assets is exceedingly wide in a recession. If you marked all of U.S. Steel’s assets to the price where they can sell a marginal ton of capacity, X would be bankrupt. Fortunately, X is under no pressure to liquidate assets – so we can all play along with the assumption that the company is solvent, with a very substantial net worth.

Ah, but what about the banks? No such benefit of the doubt is given to banks. We assume that if a bank has assets with a wide bid/ask, the bank must be camoflauging the fact that they are insolvent and most of their assets are ‘toxic’. The market is broken, illiquidity premiums are enormous, bid/ask spreads on bank assets are in disequilibrium, and mark-to-market account rules need to be repealed, ASAP. I expect the accounting rules to change, probably within a week.

My two cents:
There have been rumors all week that some repeal of it is in the works. Not a full reversal of the policy, but one that deals with illiquid securities that essentially have no market. When forced to liquidate, the seller takes whatever the buyer offers. That then sets the market for all other securities held by all whether they need to sell or not.

In its basic essence, mark to market empowers to weakest holder of securities to set the value of the strongest’s, thus dragging down the whole system to its level. That is not what capitalism is about. The strong are supposed to survive and prosper while the weak fall by themselves to the wayside.

What has happened now is the weak, far from falling by the wayside have become a massive anchor on the whole system……..not good.

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Another Loss for Tobacco in Court

I have a feeling this is but the tip of an iceberg for Altria (MO)….

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Jane Genova Reports:

A major blow for the tobacco industry, reports THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, “A jury decided Thursday that a longtime chain-smoker’s death from long cancer was caused by nicotine addicton, a potentially costly loss for tobacco giant Philip Morris and an important test for thousands of similar Florida lawsuits.”

This was the first of 8000 such personal-injury cases. In 2006, the FL Supreme Court had upheld the complaint that the tobacco industry had knowingly sold potentially harmful products while hiding the health risks. However, it also tossed the $145 billion jury award in a class action lawsuit. As a result, plaintiff attorneys began filing personal injury complaints.

In this particular case, filed by Elaine Hess a widow of a smoker, the attorneys are expected to request millions of dollars. For BigTobacco, this could be bankruptcy by a millions of cuts.

When I sold Altria in December of last year at the time I said:

Altria. It has been a wonderful investment bought back in 2000 for a now adjusted $4 a share it has produced shares of Kraft (KFT), sold, and Phillip Morris International (PM), still held. It has also produce thousands of dollars in dividends over the years. I will hold PMI as it yields 5%, has great growth prospects and little ligation risk.

But, I fear things are going to take a turn for the worse here domestically and with already owning shares of the international tobacco operations, it is time to exit. Will the upcoming purchase is UST (UST) help earnings? Yes. Will it offset the upcoming deluge of lawsuits against the company? Not so sure. Having Tom Daschle at HHS is also a bad omen. Whatever grand plans he has for universal health care will undoubtedly be funded in part on the back of cigarette companies through litigation or its customers through oppressive taxes.

The irony of the tax argument is that it is a “negative” not “progressive” tax. We know the less education a person has, the more likely they are to smoke. We also know that those with less education tend to be lower income earners. It this case, raising taxes to these addicts decreases their disposable income to fund grand ideas of health care for all. Nice…”soak the poor”

Now Daschle has flamed out, but insert whomever is next and the song is the same

State governments starved for cash will not “kill the golden goose” and bankrupt tobacco companies (that and tobacco lawyers are infinitely smarted than legislators). BUT, they also will be determined to leave little behind for shareholders….

Hypocrisy at its highest

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"Davidson" Says: PG Is A Buy!!

“Davidson” is back with a breakdown of Proctor & Gamble (PG)

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He writes:
I calculated the ROE/Multiple of BV for PG from 2000 till the lastest Morningstar report. Gillette was bought in 2006 and it was a transition year which did not have simple year end values.

For the time period the Current Market Rate of Return has been between 5-6%. Currently the value is 5.4% and for a return that makes a LgCap equity attractive the average is 150% x CMRR = 8.1%

With PG about $52shr this makes it buyable for the 1st time in the last 10yrs. I have looked at the margins and have been very impressed with the debt pay down from 80% Debt/Equity in 2005 to 32% today, this company has very a conservative financial position and appear to have seen our current environment coming. Their business has been steady even during the last slow down 2001-2003. Business is international with a manageable commodity input cost.

He provides the following information:

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Berkshire Now Just Might Be A Buy??

After a a year of saying Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) was no value, I’m thinking it just may be getting there.

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In July 2008 I said:

Wholly-owned subs such as Shaw Industries, Clayton Homes, Jordan’s Furniture (the are 4 furniture companies), Benjamin Moore, Home Services and Acme Brick and directly tied to housing and will suffer in the downturn.

For all its holdings, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company. It has operated under “perfect” conditions for the last two years according to Buffett and eventually to run must end. Premiums are already falling and as houses are re-poed and fewer new cars are purchase, insurance premiums derived from those products will fall accordingly. I know people who are looking at homeowners and auto policies for way to decrease coverage and save money. Whether or not this is a good idea is irrelevant (I do not think it is), it is happening. Throw in a hurricane or two (we are due) and insurance could suffer quite a poor year.

For more on Berkshire’s insurance read this former post:

Back in March when shares sat at $133,000 I argued they were not a “value”. Today they sit at $111,000. Are they a value now? Perhaps but one also has to expect that the near term, if Tilson is correct is fraught with potholes for Berkshire and earnings ought to take a hit.

Based on that, share price ought to suffer also meaning you will probably be able to pick them up cheaper down the road. If I owned shares would I sell? If I needed the money in the next year, yes. If I had a multi-year time frame would I sell? No. If that was the case I would be watching down the road for a cheaper entry price, I think you’ll get it.

What has happened since then?

From Barrons:

Berkshire agreed to purchase $150 million of 10 1/8% notes due in 2015 and $250 million of 10 3/8% notes due in 2018 from Birmingham, Ala.-based Vulcan. The note sale was reported in late January, but Vulcan didn’t identify the buyer of the notes until Tuesday’s earnings conference call.

Other recent Berkshire bond purchases include $300 million of Harley Davidson Inc. (HOG) 15% notes due in 2014 and $150 million of Sealed Air 12% notes due in 2014.

These purchases follow big transactions in the fourth quarter, when Berkshire purchased $5 billion of 10% preferred stock from Goldman Sachs (GS) and $3 billion of 10% preferred from General Electric (GE). Both those deals came with a sizable amount of equity warrants. During October, Berkshire also bought $4.4 billion of 11.45% subordinated notes and $2.1 billion of 5% preferred stock issued by Wrigley, which was purchased by Mars in a leveraged buyout.

One deal that Buffett probably regrets is his agreement to purchase $3 billion of convertible preferred stock in Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) if it goes forward with its deal to buy chemical maker Rohm & Haas Co. (ROH) for $15 billion. Berkshire’s purchase is contingent on the consummation of the deal.

Buffett may be hoping that the deal dies, or that Dow comes back to Berkshire with more generous terms to get a larger investment from Berkshire if Dow goes forward with the deal. Dow is resisting completion of the transaction, arguing that the debt that it would have to take on would be ruinous financially. As it stands, the Dow convertible preferred that Berkshire agreed to purchase will carry an 8.5% interest rate and a conversion price around $40, way above Dow’s current share price of $10.

If we do some simple math, Bekshire has put roughly $17.9 billion to work at 10%. That will provide Berkshire $1.7 billion a year for the next three years (some of it may convert to equity at that point). When one considers Berkshire has earned $7.8 billion of the last 12 months (Q4 2008 numbers not released yet), Buffett’s recent moved will add 21% to those earnings.

Now, insurance. Yes as stated above, the party is over but, rates are scheduled for increases. As insurance companies look to cover losses in investment portfolio’s, the aggressive pricing that has taken place in the past few years will abate, causing industry rates to rise. Also, one should expect those insurance companies feeling the pinch to take fewer larger risks. Since this is an area Berkshire loves to play in, fewer players will mean stronger pricing power on the part of Berkshire.

We will not a resurgence to the “glory years” in insurance, but conditions for the first time in a few years will improve. Remember, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company, since that business seems to have stabilized, being the best of that lot, we must assume Berkhsire has.

Berkshire’s investment portfolio has been hurt this year by the weak showing of some of its major equity investments, Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kraft (KFT), Coca-Cola (K) and Procter & Gamble (PG). While prices here are depressed, there is no permanent impairment to earnings and that is a point being missed by folks. To believe these companies will be at depressed prices 3 years from now means the global economy will not recover. If you believe that, buying any equity is a waste of time.

Berkshire is big holder of those three companies’ shares and it also is short $37 billion of long-dated put options on the S&P 500 and other equity indexes. As the market has dropped, Berkshire has taken a charge to earnings (no cash) in the write-down of the value of these options. When the market rises, the opposite will happen (write-up). Again, to assume no improvement here implies US business is stagnant for the next decade.

Now, Berkshire is down roughly 33% since my fist post on it. The difference now is that several of its businesses are showing signs of life and Buffett has put billions to work at 10% vs the pittance is was getting previously in Treasuries.

The next piece of the puzzle is the Berkshire manufacturing businesses listed above. They will turn when the economy does. If you believe that is the 2nd half of this year, the time to buy is now. If you believe that is 2010, you have time to wait.

Will Berkshire go lower? I do not know but I do know that there isn’t a good reason for it to go much lower barring further dramatic worldwide economic collapse.

Time will tell but I think Berkhsire at its current levels do not have much more downside….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, none

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Thursday’s Links…Obama "Unplugged"

Barack Obama unplugged…..

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Regarding fries

– Regarding “white folk”

– Regarding the Presidency

– Regarding some guy
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RealMoney Column Posted

I have started contributing to Realmoney.com and TheStreet.com and my first column has been posted

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For those with a subscription, you can read it here

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Berkshire Files 13D in Goldman Sachs $$

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Buffett hold 8.6% of the common in Goldman Sachs (GS)

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“Explanatory Note: The Reporting Persons had intended to file this Schedule 13G pursuant to Rule 13d-1(b), pursuant to which it would have been timely filed on February 17, 2009. In the course of preparing this Schedule 13G, the Reporting Persons determined that BH Finance, LLC, which is not an entity specified in §240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(A) through (J), owns slightly more than 1% of the Issuer’s outstanding common stock, making the Reporting Persons ineligible for Rule 13d-1(b). All shares of Common Stock of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reported in this Schedule 13G are held in the form of warrants exercisable by the Reporting Persons within 60 days.”

Full filing

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Berkshire Hathaway Files 13D/A in USG $$

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) now has 34% of USG (USG)

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From the filing
BH Nebraska is the holder of $160 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes (the “BH Nebraska Notes”), which, to the knowledge of the Reporting Persons, if converted, would constitute approximately 11.2% of USG’s outstanding Common Stock, based on the number of shares of Common Stock disclosed as outstanding on the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Commission on October 28, 2008. BH Assurance is the holder of $90 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes, which, to the knowledge of the Reporting Persons, if converted, would constitute approximately 6.3% of USG’s outstanding Common Stock (the “BH Assurance Notes,” and together with the BH Nebraska Notes, the “Nebraska/Assurance Notes”), based on the number of shares of Common Stock disclosed as outstanding on the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Commission on October 28, 2008. General Re Life is the holder of $50 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes, which, to the knowledge of the Reporting Persons, if converted, would constitute approximately 3.5% of USG’s outstanding Common Stock (the “General Re Life Notes”), based on the number of shares of Common Stock disclosed as outstanding on the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Commission on October 28, 2008. Mr. Buffett may be deemed to control Berkshire, which controls BH Nebraska, BH Assurance and General Re Life. Thus, both Mr. Buffett and Berkshire may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the Nebraska/Assurance Notes and the Gen Re Life Notes. NICO, an indirect subsidiary of Berkshire and the direct parent company of BH Nebraska and BH Assurance, also may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the Nebraska/Assurance Notes. OBH, a direct subsidiary of Berkshire and the direct parent company of NICO, also may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the Nebraska/Assurance Notes. Cologne Re, an indirect subsidiary of Berkshire and the direct parent company of General Re Life, also may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the General Re Life Notes. General Reinsurance, an indirect subsidiary of Berkshire and the direct parent company of Cologne Re, also may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the General Re Life Notes. General Re, a direct subsidiary of Berkshire and the direct parent company of General Reinsurance, also may be considered to have beneficial ownership of the General Re Life Notes.

(b) BH Nebraska has voting and investment power with respect to the BH Nebraska Notes. BH Assurance has voting and investment power with respect to the BH Assurance Notes. However, Mr. Buffett, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Berkshire, who may be deemed to control BH Nebraska and BH Assurance, directs the investment of BH Nebraska and BH Assurance. Thus, Mr. Buffett, Berkshire, NICO and OBH share voting and investment power with respect to the Nebraska/Assurance Notes. General Re Life has voting and investment power with respect to the General Re Life Notes. However, Mr. Buffett, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Berkshire, who may be deemed to control General Re Life, directs the investment of General Re Life. Thus, Mr. Buffett, Berkshire, Cologne Re, General Reinsurance and General Re share voting and investment power with respect to the General Re Life Notes.

Item 6 is hereby amended to add the following:
On November 21, 2008, Berkshire and USG entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”), pursuant to which, and subject to the terms and conditions thereof, Berkshire agreed to purchase Notes in an aggregate principal amount of $300 million, and USG agreed to sell Notes in an aggregate principal amount of $300 million dollars, for an aggregate purchase price of $300 million. On November 26, 2008, BH Nebraska purchased $160 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes, BH Assurance purchased $90 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes, and General Re Life purchased $50 million aggregate principal amount of the

Notes.
Following stockholder approval of the issuance of shares of Common Stock upon conversion of the Notes at a special meeting of the USG stockholders held on February 9, 2009, the Notes became convertible into Common Stock at the option of BH Nebraska, BH Assurance and General Re Life at any time prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the final maturity date of the Notes (December 1, 2018), unless the Notes are earlier repurchased or redeemed by USG, subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the indenture and the supplemental indenture governing the Notes (the “Indenture”). The Notes are convertible into Common Stock at an initial conversion price of $11.40 per share, subject to adjustments as set forth in the Indenture.

On November 26, 2008, Berkshire and USG entered into an Amended and Restated Registration Rights Agreement (“Registration Rights Agreement”), pursuant to which USG has granted BH Nebraska, BH Assurance and General Re Life certain registration rights with respect to its shares of Common Stock and the Notes. The Registration Rights Agreement amended and restated in its entirety that certain Registration Rights Agreement, dated as of January 30, 2006, between USG and Berkshire.
The preceding discussion of the Securities Purchase Agreement, Assignment and Assumption Agreement, Indenture and Registration Rights Agreement does not contain a complete description of such agreements and is qualified in its entirety by reference to such agreements, which are filed as exhibits hereto and incorporated herein by reference.

Here are the details of the convertible transaction
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Thoughts on Knowledge and Opportunity (Stocktwits) $$

The internet is enabling us as investors unprecedented access to other investors and has created unbelievable opportunities….if you’ll do some work and accept the knowledge they offer.

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Here is a little story:

A priest offered a Nun a lift.
She got in and crossed her legs, forcing her gown to reveal a leg.
The priest nearly had an accident.
After controlling the car, he stealthily slid his hand up her leg.
The nun said, ‘Fathe r, remember Psalm 129?’
The priest removed his hand. But, changing gears, he let his hand slide up her leg again. The nun once again said, ‘Father, remember Psalm 129?’
The priest apologized ‘Sorry sister but the flesh is weak.’
Arriving at the convent, the nun sighed heavily and went on her way.
Upon his arrival at the church, the priest rushed to look up Psalm 129. It said, ‘Go forth and seek, further up, you will find glory.’

Moral of the story:
If you are not well informed in your job, you might miss a great opportunity.

The same goes for investing. Do yourself a favor. Follow the those on StockTwits for a day or so. There is a mix of traders and investors there. The beauty of it is that it is a stream of conscious thought and a back and forth (respectful, unlike message boards).

You can follow the whole community, the traders, the investors or just a symbol in a portfolio. Essentially it enables you to make it what you want it to be. There is one thing you will notice if you follow it. Those who are successful, work at it. They are not blindly buying and selling. The action is thought out and has a definite rhyme and reason to it.  The conversation and sharing both starts well before the market does and continues after it closes.

At the end of the day,  they are going through data to find new ideas. They are constantly testing their thesis, sharing ideas and considering feedback from the community. Everyone who invests occasionally hits a spell of blind luck (good or bad), at times we make or lose money due to events that were unpredicatable. But, those who are successful over the long term are so because they work at it.

As investors we benefit today because social networking allows us to both gleem their knowledge and share our ideas with them. If you follow the right ones, their generosity in giving feedback is invaluable.  If you are shy, the medium allow you to sit back and just listen and learn, nothing wrong with that.

Learn from those who are successful…don’t be like the priest and miss an opportunity..

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A Message for the Bank Execs Today…

Here is a sweet little story that I things bank executives in front of Congress today ought to take to heart.

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A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field.
While he was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on him.
As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, he began to realize how warm he was.
The dung was actually thawing him out!
He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy.
A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate.
Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him.

Moral of the story:
(1) Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy.

(2) Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend.

(3) And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut!

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Alan Blinder: "Origins of The Financial Mess"

From Nov. 2008

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Shiller on Behavioral Finance

Given current events, rather appropriate…no?

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Wednesday’s Links- 2 Vids, A Lesson, Black Gold

Greed, Wall St. Media, Learning, DXO

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– Gekko had it rights, only greed will fix this problem

– Thank for the mention

– “Learning from Losses” a great piece

– A way to play it

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Government Spending vs Unemployment: The Relationship

This ought to illicit some conversation….

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Here is the link to Westbury’s original piece:
Unemployment and Stimulus II

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Academic Work brian westbury first trust

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