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Housing, Worst Over?

So, here are the CEO of the two largest home builders, Robert Toll of toll brothers (TOLL) and Ara Hovnanian of Honvnanian (HOV). Let’s see what they have to say.

Toll:

Hovnanian:

Now, here is what matters. Neither Toll or Hovnanian have been very positive in the past and both are not jumping up in down in glee in these reports. But, and this is the big point. Both are seeing the deterioration of conditions waning. Toll said “it doesn’t feel good but isn’t getting any worse.”

This seems to back Wilbur Ross’s claim yesterday that he sees housing conditions lasting “well into 2009”.

Hovnanian mentioned the $7500 tax credit and compared it to the $2000 credit back in 1975 that was very successful.

Both Honvnaina and Dennis Gartman (“Squawk” guest) mentioned the “baby boom” currently underway in the US that is always bullish for housing. The thing that struck me was that both homebuilders were very calm and breathing rather easily as though they both, while they would not come out and say it, felt the worst was over..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wilbur Ross on Housing and Mortgages and More

Ross talks about the current housing troubles (lasting though 2009), subprime (those lenders have a better business due to pricing), bond insurers & debt rating agencies (they do not understand the business) and more. It is a great interview.

Part 1:

Part 2- He talks about his Assured Guarantee (AGO) Investment. He makes a very good case for it:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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The Candidates Health Plans (video)

Investors in health related stocks will want to know what both McCain and Obama plan to do if elected.

Obama:

McCain:

Personally, I think the more gov’t gets involved, the more expensive it always becomes…..always…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):McCain voter

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Thursday’s links

Thank you,Blackberry, Dowd, BJ’s, Race

– Thanks for the mention in the WSJ

Iwhat?

– Do people really still read her?

– Not what your’re thinking

– This has to be tough

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Wells Fargo to buy Century Bancshares in Early 90’s Flashback

So, is this a repeat of 1990-1991? While the other banks are going bust, shedding assets and dumping garbage on their books for pennies on the dollar, Wells Fargo (WFC) quietly stays above the fray and expands. Today it announced the purchase of Century Bancshares (

From the release:

“Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) and Century Bancshares, Inc. said today they have signed a definitive agreement for Wells Fargo to acquire Century Bancshares and its banking operations in Dallas-Fort Worth, and Texarkana, Texas and Arkansas in a stock-for-stock merger. As a result of the acquisition, Arkansas will become Wells Fargo’s 24th community banking state.

The acquisition – requiring approval of regulators and Century Bancshares shareholders, and expected to be completed by the end of this year – will increase Wells Fargo’s presence in Dallas-Forth Worth, the U.S. metro area with the largest population increase from 2006 to 2007, according to census data. It also will make Wells Fargo No. 1 in deposit market share in Texarkana.

Closely held and based in Dallas, Century Bancshares has $1.4 billion in assets, $1.3 billion in deposits, $1.2 billion in loans, 32 banking locations and 485 employees. It has 28 Century Bank locations in nine Texas communities – Dallas (11); Atlanta; Addison; Farmers Branch (2); Frisco; The Colony; Plano (3); New Boston; and Texarkana (7). Four Century Bank locations are in Arkansas – Texarkana (3); and Ashdown. Century Bank is the leading financial institution in Texarkana and surrounding communities.

“The combination of Century Bank and Wells Fargo will be a great benefit for our customers, our employees and the communities we serve,” said Joe Nichols, CEO, Century Bancshares. “By teaming with Wells Fargo, we can continue delivering the excellent personal service and financial advice our customers expect, and offer them more products and services, and more convenience throughout Texas and the western United States. We also will remain a leader in supporting our north Texas and Texarkana communities.”

The key here is that Wells Fargo is now one of the largest institutions on a region that is growing at a break-neck pace and up until this point, has been relatively immune to the economic malaise affecting so much of the country.

This is the same playbook Wells Fargo played by at the turn of the 1990’s during the last housing downturn. It worked stunningly for shareholders then and looks to be loading them up for similarly out-sized gains now in the year to come. You’ll remember that Wells latest 10-Q did not contain the despair that other banks like Citi (C), Wachovia (WB) or even JP Morgan (JPM) did.

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett bought heavily into WFC then, one has to wonder if he is picking up more now..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, C, WB, None

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Sherwin Williams Files Response in Legal Cost Issue

Once again Jane Genova got the scoop. Jane probably had a copy of the response before the Court Clerk in RI did. Sherwin Williams (SHW) has officially filed its response to RI.

Anyway, here is her post

The line that gets me:
“Here you can download the Rhode Island lead defendants’ rebuttal of the state’s contention of sovereign immunity as well as the state’s argument that costs should be denied because defendants’ “failed to exhaust the remedies available to them from the outset.”

Exhaust remedies? Really? I thought the RISC just ruled the case should never have been brought in the first place? What would RI AG Patrick Lynch have proposed the defendants do? Beg for forgiveness? Grovel at his feet?

I can’t wait to read the response. I hope it is with keeping with this whole farce from the beginning…hysterical…

It must be hard to write a professional response to the court the way the defendants do. Recite the law on one hand and remind us of the absurdity of the entire situation on the other.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW

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Paulson & Co Files 13F: Adds Phillip Morris, Bank of America

John Paulson, otherwise know as “the guy who made over $3 billion shorting mortgages” has files a 13F in his hedge fund Paulson & Co.

Notable moves:
Added 7 million shares of Phillip Morris International (PM)
Added 2.7 Million shares of Bank of America (BAC)
Increased NYMEX Holdings (NMX) ownership from 1 million to 2.5 million shares
Added 3.4 million shares of Wrigley (WWY)
Sold 4.5 million shares of Altria (MO)

What is interesting is the purchase of Bank of America. Paulson, who it can be argued saw the current housing and mortgage market mess before anyone, must see some light at the end of the tunnel. Either that, or he thinks BAC’s valuation is so low, he is protected from more bad news.

Either way, it does bode well as a glimmer of hope….


Full August filing


Full May filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Lonh PM,MO, none

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Starbucks Losing Core Customers?

Shane over at NoiseFreeInveting.com emailed me his post and I think he makes good and possibly devastating points for Starbucks (SBUX).

Shane says
:
“All of the sudden Starbucks experience felt different. My drink tasted different. The romance of my morning coffee was gone. Of course, chemically my drink had the same composition. (Often however the milk tasted burnt – a by-product of preheating milk that has to stay warm longer while it waits for a customer.)

If you remove the romance, Starbucks reverts to selling a simple, easily substitutable, commodity. After a few mornings of unromantic experiences, I wondered why I was forking out money for a latte that tasted so blah and I stopped going.

It took a few years, but I’ve recently found a great little coffee shop that makes the best latte’s in town. The company offer fresh hand-measured (and timed) espresso shots, individually heated milk regardless of how many customers are in line, and fancy designs on their latte’s. They offer the romance I was missing.

Money and speed never played a factor in my decision – Starbucks fails to understand that. As evidence I submit a recent ad campaign. The promise? Better Coffee. Faster.

The company is now openly admitting they are selling a commodity. In the place of romance they are offering operational excellence. Starbucks only thinks they sell better coffee. True coffee lovers — the ones that can tell you where the beans are from just by sipping the coffee — avoid the company.”

Now, if Shane is right then things may be worse for Starbucks than even I think. If my thesis that coffee is a simple commodity then price rules hold true, Starbucks can reverse its current free fall by becoming more “value oriented”. But, if Shane’s is the predominant factor for the current situation, then it means Starbucks is not just losing the cost conscious consumer but it core one also.

That would be the worst news of all…


Full Post

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Back to Back Fed Auctions?

This is a first and probably necessary due to the unfulfilled demand in the first auction on Aug. 11th.

On August 12, 2008
, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.450 percent

Total propositions submitted: $75.462 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.51

Number of bidders: 65

Now, rates cam down considerably from the 8/11 auction and this may have simply been and issue to the lower number of bids vs available fund.

It is a bit concerning that $75 billion had to be auctioned in back to back days…

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Thain Sticks It To Dimon

Remember Merrill’s (MER) dumping of mortgage products to Lone Star for 22 cents on the dollar? It is now coming home to roost at the rest of the banks.

JPMorgan (JPM) said since the beginning of July, trading conditions in the mortgage market “had substantially deteriorated . . . causing the company to incur losses” of $1.5bn, excluding hedges.

Bankers said July was the worst month for mortgage-backed bonds since the beginning of the crisis, as a combination of cut-price sales and waning demand from large investors helped to depress prices. Morgan said the writedowns were partly driven by Merrill Lynch’s decision to sell $6.7bn in toxic securities to Lone Star funds, the distressed debt investor, for just 22 cents on the dollar.

The move prompted a fall in the prices of similar securities, forcing JPMorgan to mark down its own assets.

This is the problem with “mark to market” accounting when the market is so dislocated. It is a bit like the bank coming to you because the price of your home fell and telling you to sell your car to raise capital. If you are not selling your home and have a conforming mortgage, its current valuation is meaningless. JP Morgan does not need to sell the securities to raise capital. Now, if troubled firms desperate for cash need to dump additional assets to save themselves, the value of all assets may drop further, causing additional write-down and then the need may arise to restore ratios.

What is being ignored here is the cash flows from the assets. Not all of them are impaired and now are trading at prices below the streams of income they produce. Remember, Thain said that the financed part of the Lone Star transaction was fully financed by the revenue from the CDO’s.

Just because your neighbor gets himself in a jam, it should not force you to liquidate or materially markdown your assets.

Mart-to-market is exacerbating the current banks problem because it is forcing actions that without it in the extremity of the current market, would not be necessary.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Schoonover Playing Fiddle on Deck While Titanic Sinks

Remember the scene from the movie “Titanic”? As the ship is going down, the group of violinists stays on decks playing thinking the ship ultimately will not sink. I am pretty sure one of them was Circuit City (CC) CEO Phil Schoonover.

Five years after Circuit City refused an $8-a-share offer from Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim and a 2005 $17-a-share offer by hedge fund Highfields Capital Management LP Schoonover & Crew messed up a $6 to $8 offer from Blockbuster (BBI). Shares today sit at $1.75. Why did Blockbuster back out? Lack of disclosure from Circuit City.

Now word comes word that a they have put on hold the completion of a $45 million distribution facility near Scranton, Pa., which had been slated to begin operations later this year. The facility was to replace two others in an effort to streamline operation and save money. When you don’t have the cash to spend (even after canceling the dividend) to save cash, things are really tight.

The WSJ did a piece yesterday that has a classic paragraph
“In July, Mr. Schoonover asked investors to forget much of the Richmond, Va., company’s recent history: turnarounds that didn’t materialize, a revolving door of top executives and burgeoning losses. Instead, he held out a vision of a company “on the right track with the right strategies, the right talent and improved processes,” he said in a conference call with investors.”

Schoonover then went out and destroyed investors last hope of seeing more than $3 each for their shares anytime this decade.

In a final irony, Schoonover, who was interviewed by the Journal last year about “how to execute a turnaround” declined to be interviewed for this story. Good idea.

The Journal continued:
“Circuit City has a secured credit line of about $1 billion that could allow it to withstand losses for the rest of the year, assuming continued support by its big suppliers. Supplier discontent helped send retailers Linens ‘n Things, Steve & Barry’s and Mervyn’s to seek bankruptcy protection this year.

Circuit City also recently filed a shelf registration that would allow it to bolster its capital by selling new shares or to find debt-assuming buyers. A Circuit City spokesman says that “the vendors are still supporting us.””

OK. Who would buy it? Really? CC has enough credit available to hang on for a while assuming vendors will continue to sell them product on credit. That is by no means a sure thing. Credit is tightening for companies with good outlooks and this little thing called profits. For a struggling company, hemorrhaging money using the credit card to buy products to lose more money, credit will evaporate.

If we believe the economy will struggle or flatline through 2009, then CC is done. They cannot make it through another year like this. Perhaps the buy a lifeline if they can sell their Canadian stores, but not a lengthy one.

I think in six months it will be proven the Blockbuster offer was the “last chance” for shareholders it was.

What Schoonover and The Board has done there should be criminal..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday’s Links

Thank-you, MBIA v Ackman, iPhone, Happy Birthday

– Thank you for the mention.

– More thoughts on the subject

– Uh… not so great

– A Happy Birthday to George over at Fat Pitch

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Corn Harvest to be 2nd Largest Ever

Good news for ethanol producers like ADM (ADM), Verasun (VSE) and Pacifc Ethanol (PEIX).

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that farmers will harvest 12.3 billion bushels of corn, up more than 570 million bushels from last month’s estimate of 11.7 billion. That’s down 6% from last year’s record crop of 13.1 billion bushels, but 17% above the 2006 harvest.

Average corn prices this year are expected to drop to $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel, down 60 cents from last month’s forecast of $5.50 to $6.50.

Corn prices soared to record levels near $8 after the floods, the worst to hit the Midwest in 15 years. But cooler, wetter weather since then will boost corn yields to 155 bushels per acre, up from last month’s estimate of 148.4, the department said.

Corn prices have already dropped to almost $5 per bushel, though that is still higher than in 2006, when a bushel cost $2.

In its recent earnings release, ADM said it expected to see higher ethanol selling costs this quarter and this news ought to bring down corn costs that saw a “significant increase in the prior quarter.

The recent Kiplinger Reports said that refiners are trying to slip extra ethanol in mixes because of the 88 cents per gallon cost differential. What this means is that there is no demand issue with the product, refiners cannot get enough of it.

We are about 4 billion gallon per year short of making all US gasoline E10. This year the industry will produce roughly 9 billion gallons and the mandate for next year is 11.1 billion. This will easily be absorbed through the system.

It all boils down to increases profits for ADM and the others..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none

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Barney Frank on Housing and Fannie & Freddie

Watch Barney Frank talking to Fox Biz. He covers housing, mortgages, and goes into a bit of detail on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Short story, he sees no reason they should be nationalized nor does he feel they are in trouble. It is a great piece.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Nice Payday for Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square

Week one, disclose position in Longs Drug Stores (LDG). Next week, make 87% on investment when CVS (CVS) buys you out.

Reuters Reports
:
“CVS Caremark will pay $71.50 per share for Longs to acquire some 521 Longs stores in California, Nevada, Arizona and Hawaii, as well as its Rx America subsidiary, a prescription benefits management services company.

The deal was expected to crimp earnings per share at CVS Caremark in its first year, but add to earnings beginning in 2010, the companies said.

CVS Caremark is expected to gain cost savings of approximately $100 million in 2009 and approximately $140 million to $150 million in 2010 from purchasing savings and lower selling, general and administrative costs.

“This transaction provides tremendous benefits to CVS Caremark by accelerating our expansion in very attractive drugstore markets and strengthening our geographic reach,” the company’s chairman and chief executive, Thomas Ryan, said in a statement.”

Ackman has an economic interest in 23% of the company. Quick math says he nets $667 million and a rough estimate profit of $580 million. Not a bad week at all…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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