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Articles

Monday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 2, 2008

Upgrades
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Neutral » Add
Plains All Amer (PAA)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
American Axle (AXL)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Shoe Carnival (SCVL)- Soleil Sell » Hold
Genesco (GCO)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Big Lots (BIG)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Marvell (MRVL)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Citi Trends (CTRN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Wet Seal (WTSLA)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
Marvell (MRVL)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
NASDAQ (NDAQ)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Molina Healthcare (MOH)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Clean Harbors (CLHB)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Oritani Financial (ORIT)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Drew Industries (DW)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
eLong (LONG)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Dell (DELL)- Cross Research Hold » Sell
ICT Group (ICTG)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Ryanair Hldgs (RYAAY)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Spectrum Brands (SPC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AptarGroup (ATR)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Integrated Device (IDTI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Kosan Biosciences (KOSN)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Costco (COST)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
SW Energy (SWN)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Ashland (ASH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
J. Crew (JCG)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
J. Crew (JCG)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Articles

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 2, 2008

Upgrades
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Neutral » Add
Plains All Amer (PAA)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
American Axle (AXL)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Shoe Carnival (SCVL)- Soleil Sell » Hold
Genesco (GCO)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Big Lots (BIG)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Marvell (MRVL)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Citi Trends (CTRN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Wet Seal (WTSLA)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
Marvell (MRVL)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
NASDAQ (NDAQ)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Molina Healthcare (MOH)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Clean Harbors (CLHB)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Oritani Financial (ORIT)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Drew Industries (DW)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
eLong (LONG)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Dell (DELL)- Cross Research Hold » Sell
ICT Group (ICTG)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Ryanair Hldgs (RYAAY)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Spectrum Brands (SPC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AptarGroup (ATR)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Integrated Device (IDTI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Kosan Biosciences (KOSN)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Costco (COST)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
SW Energy (SWN)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Ashland (ASH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
J. Crew (JCG)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
J. Crew (JCG)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Articles

"Fast Money" for Monday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 1, 2008

MONDAY’S PICKS
Jeff Macke likes Costco (COST) 71.32 on the pull back.

Guy Adami suggests getting long Nucor (NUE) $74.8

Pete Najarian prefers Synthesis Energy Systems (SYMX) $11.02

Karen Finerman thinks Maguire Properties (MPG) $15.71 looks attractive.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS
Jeff Macke recommends getting long J. Crew (JCG) $46.91 CLOSE $ 37.27 BIG LOSS

Guy Adami prefers Tesoro (TSO) $23.26 CLOSE $24.85 GAIN

Karen Finerman likes Citigroup (C) $22.04 CLOSE $21.89 GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $52.31 is a buy. CLOSE $54.77 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 41-35-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 44-36
Pete Najarian= 40-37
Karen Finerman= 39-31-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Blockbuster’s Kiosk Idea: Doesn’t Suck, ButThat’s All

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

At least it is a step away from dvd’s in a store. That being said, it is far from an answer to what ails the company.

Dan Frommer had a great review of Blockbuster’s (BBI) product:

“Then will it fix Blockbuster’s problems? No.

Why not? Because there are very few use cases for a kiosk that rapidly transfers a digital movie to your iPod. It might make sense at the airport, where you can quickly grab a few movies before a long flight. But beyond that, it will rarely be the most convenient way to obtain digital media.

At home, an over-the-Internet movie download like Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes, Amazon’s (AMZN) Unbox, or Netflix’s (NFLX) streaming service makes much more sense — especially if there’s a way to play the movie on your TV. Why would you drive to Blockbuster — or anywhere — to download a movie to watch at home when you could do it from your living room?

And on the go, we imagine that over-the-air movie/TV services will develop/mature just as quickly as Blockbuster’s kiosks. So they won’t help much there, either.”

The key here is is still requires me to go somewhere to get a movie. While admittedly it will be great for travel locations, other than that, its use is limited.

The kiosk prototype, which will begin testing within the next three weeks, was developed by NCR Corp. (NCR). For the pilot launch, the kiosks will be compatible only with an Archos portable device. Blockbuster said it plans for the kiosk to be an “open system” and widely compatible with a range of devices. If it does not work with Apple’s (AAPL) ipod, it will fail. Folks will not go out and buy another device for this.

Blockbuster’s real and lingering problem is its core business, the DVD. Check out this interview with NetFlix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings about the new video streaming product.

Netflix is moving on full force into the future, Blockbuster, dipping its toes in the water..still

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tags BBI

Articles

Blockbuster's Kiosk Idea: Doesn't Suck, ButThat's All

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

At least it is a step away from dvd’s in a store. That being said, it is far from an answer to what ails the company.

Dan Frommer had a great review of Blockbuster’s (BBI) product:

“Then will it fix Blockbuster’s problems? No.

Why not? Because there are very few use cases for a kiosk that rapidly transfers a digital movie to your iPod. It might make sense at the airport, where you can quickly grab a few movies before a long flight. But beyond that, it will rarely be the most convenient way to obtain digital media.

At home, an over-the-Internet movie download like Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes, Amazon’s (AMZN) Unbox, or Netflix’s (NFLX) streaming service makes much more sense — especially if there’s a way to play the movie on your TV. Why would you drive to Blockbuster — or anywhere — to download a movie to watch at home when you could do it from your living room?

And on the go, we imagine that over-the-air movie/TV services will develop/mature just as quickly as Blockbuster’s kiosks. So they won’t help much there, either.”

The key here is is still requires me to go somewhere to get a movie. While admittedly it will be great for travel locations, other than that, its use is limited.

The kiosk prototype, which will begin testing within the next three weeks, was developed by NCR Corp. (NCR). For the pilot launch, the kiosks will be compatible only with an Archos portable device. Blockbuster said it plans for the kiosk to be an “open system” and widely compatible with a range of devices. If it does not work with Apple’s (AAPL) ipod, it will fail. Folks will not go out and buy another device for this.

Blockbuster’s real and lingering problem is its core business, the DVD. Check out this interview with NetFlix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings about the new video streaming product.

Netflix is moving on full force into the future, Blockbuster, dipping its toes in the water..still

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tags BBI

Articles

ADM Prices Takeover Fund

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

The pricing of Archer Daniel’s (ADM) stock offering is pretty telling. Yes, I know is is not officially a “take over” fund, but, what else do they really need it for?

Archer Daniels Midland announced that it has priced its offering of up to $2 billion of equity units. ADM will issue 35,000,000 equity units with a stated amount of $50 per unit and has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 5,000,000 additional equity units to cover over-allotments. The equity units carry a total distribution rate of 6.25%, and the threshold appreciation price of the equity units is $47.83, which represents a premium of approximately 20% over the closing price of ADM’s common stock of $39.86 on May 28, 2008.

The equity units will initially consist of a contract to purchase ADM common stock and a 5.0% beneficial ownership interest in a $1,000 principal amount 4.70% debenture due June 1, 2041. Under the purchase contract, holders are required to purchase ADM common stock no later than on June 1, 2011.

With all the discounted equity offering we are seeing in the financial sector at Citi (C), Washington Mutual (WM) and USB (USB), it is refreshing to see an offering at a premium (and a pretty substantial one) to the current price.

The pricing reflects the core strength of ADM’s business and its prospects.

The only thing left is to see who they will buy or partner with……..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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What Goes Into $4 a Gallon Gas? (video)

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

Interesting stuff……..

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The Week’s Insider Buys

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

The week’s top insider purchases by dollar amount

Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)= $8,197,837
Autonation Inc De (AN)= $8,108,089
U S Auto Parts Network Inc (PRTS)= $5,479,067
Masco Corp (MAS)= $5,373,467
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)= $4,027,086
eLoyalty Corp (ELOY)= $3,643,883
General Electric Co (GE)= $3,519,818
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)= $3,231,103
Gentek Inc (GETI)= $2,078,775
Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR)= $1,962,000
Flagstar Bancorp Inc (FBC)= $1,866,900
Integramed America Inc (INMD)= $1,790,000
Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE)= $1,325,946
Prospect Capital Corp (PSEC)= $1,238,194
Liberty Media Corp Capital Group (LCAPA)= $1,219,004
Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)= $1,112,150
Sepracor Inc (SEPR)= $1,048,000

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Tags AN, CODi

Articles

The Week's Insider Buys

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

The week’s top insider purchases by dollar amount

Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)= $8,197,837
Autonation Inc De (AN)= $8,108,089
U S Auto Parts Network Inc (PRTS)= $5,479,067
Masco Corp (MAS)= $5,373,467
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)= $4,027,086
eLoyalty Corp (ELOY)= $3,643,883
General Electric Co (GE)= $3,519,818
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)= $3,231,103
Gentek Inc (GETI)= $2,078,775
Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR)= $1,962,000
Flagstar Bancorp Inc (FBC)= $1,866,900
Integramed America Inc (INMD)= $1,790,000
Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE)= $1,325,946
Prospect Capital Corp (PSEC)= $1,238,194
Liberty Media Corp Capital Group (LCAPA)= $1,219,004
Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)= $1,112,150
Sepracor Inc (SEPR)= $1,048,000

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Tags AN, CODi

Articles

MBIA & Abmac: Tilson Clarifies Position

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 31, 2008

Got an email from Whitney Tilson in which he clarified the apparent long position on his 13-F.

“The reason MBIA and Ambac show up as longs in our 13-F is that it can be hard to get the borrow on the short, so when we can get the borrow, we short more than we want, and then buy the stock long to bring the net short position down to the level we want. Then, every time we want to increase our short position, we don’t have to get the borrow — instead, we simply sell down the long position.”

Simply put, he adjust the positions portfolio weighting with the long side..

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Whitney Tilson and Bond Insurers (ABK), (MBI): Corrected

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 30, 2008
4 Comments on Whitney Tilson and Bond Insurers (ABK), (MBI): Corrected

In the filing, T2 has a $176 thousand stake in Ambac and $388 thousand in MBIA.

Both are new holdings since the previous filing.

Tilson’s clarification:

“The reason MBIA and Ambac show up as longs in our 13-F is that it can be hard to get the borrow on the short, so when we can get the borrow, we short more than we want, and then buy the stock long to bring the net short position down to the level we want. Then, every time we want to increase our short position, we don’t have to get the borrow — instead, we simply sell down the long position.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading At VIN

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 30, 2008

The week’s best at Value Investing News

1. Magic Formula Weekly Roundup: 5/18 – 5/24

(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Weekly roundup of stocks moving in and out of the Magic Formula screen.

2. The Next Buffetts

(via www.canadianbusiness.com)

This article covers Prem Watsa, Tim McElvaine, Michael Burry, and Ian Cumming as the potential next Buffett’s. Hat tip: Controlled Greed.com

3. Jaclyn, A Profitable Going Private Transaction

(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

Look at how this value investor made a 33% return in just 49 days for a simple workout. The Jaclyn going private transaction provides a great example of an almost perfect reverse split going private transaction.

4. The Next Buffetts? Maybe. Also, 3 Simple Rules from a Canadian Investor

(via circleofcompetence.blogspot.com)

After finding an the Moneysense article The Next Buffetts though Controlled Greed, I reflected on the superinvestor that is Tim McElvaine.

5. Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB) dividend analysis

(via dividendgrowth.blogspot.com)

Kimberly Clark Corp is a dividend aristocrat as well as a component in S&P 500 index. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 36 consecutive years. KMB has delivered an average total return of 6.60 % annually to its loyal shareholders. over the past 10 years

6. Pepsi Co (PEP) looks attractive

(via dividendgrowth.blogspot.com)

Over the past several weeks the company has traded below 68 on a couple of occasions. I am considering buying some PEP this week, as long as the price is below $68.

7. America’s hottest investor: mutual fund manager Ken Heebner – May. 27, 2008

(via money.cnn.com)

The best mutual fund manager around – a.k.a. Ken Heebner of Capital Growth Management – looks restless. He is sitting in a conference room at Goldman Sachs’s Boston office, listening to a young analyst pontificate about all the trends he thinks will sweep the markets in coming years. Oil demand outpacing supply. The rapid growth of agriculture. The increased sway of sovereign wealth funds.

8. What’s Chipotle trying to pull here?

(via www.footnoted.org)

Normally, anything filed late on a Friday means that a company is trying to bury something pretty juicy. That’s doubly true when that late Friday filing happens before a holiday weekend when the markets are closed. So you can imagine my surprise to see this 8K filed by Chipotle (CMG) at 5:27 pm on Friday afternoon.

9. Video: Warren Buffett’s News Conference in Madrid

(via www.cnbc.com)

Among the topics covered: his continuing effort to get the word to large family-owned businesses that he may be interested in buying if the family needs to sell, the U.S. economy and ‘financial weapons of mass destruction.’

10. Jean-Marie Eveillard’s Musings On Japanese Equities

(via valetudoinvesting.blogspot.com)

Notes from May conference call at First Eagle

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Articles

David Einhorn on Wealth Track

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 30, 2008

You’ve got to like Einhorn. 25% a year since 1996…….p

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ValuePlays Most Read Posts for May

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 30, 2008

Here are the most read posts for May

1- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Leucadia Releases 13-F: Can you Spell Concentrated Portfolio?

2- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: NetFlix Beats Blockbuster Again (update with video)

3- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Circuit City On The Bankruptcy Express

4- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Warren is Everywhere, Why?

5- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: “Complete Turtle Trader” Book Review

6- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Phillip Morris Int. Tender Offer: Just How Dumb Does TRC Capital Think We Are??!!!??

7- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Lampert Reports Sallie Mae Stake

8- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: GE to Sell Appliance Unit, Lampert Interested?

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Tags BBI, CC

Articles

Seth Klarman Buys Borders

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 30, 2008

More big-time investor are taking stakes in Borders (BGP)

Baupost Group, a hedge fund run by deep value investor Seth Klarman, showed a 8.22% stake in (4,971,600 shares) as of the quarter ended 3/31/08. The firm did not show holdings in Borders at the quarter ended 12/31/07.

Baupost Group manages $7+ billion and has returned approximately 20% annually since its inception. Klarman was in the first group of inductees to Alpha magazine’s Hedge Fund Hall of Fame.

Klarman is the author of “Margin of Safety”, one of the hardest finance books to track down today. Published in 1991, it is now out of print, and sells on Amazon and Ebay for over $1000. It is even one of the most-stolen library books, making it very difficult to find a copy to read.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Tags bgp, seth klarman