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Lowe's Profit Drop: Not All That Bad

If I am being honest, I would have thought this number would have been much worse…

Lowe’s (LOW), #2 behind Home Depot (HD) reported quarterly earnings came to $607 million, or 41 cents a diluted share, compared with $739 million, or 48 cents a share, a year earlier, a 14% decrease. Net sales dipped 1.3% to $12 billion, with same-store sales falling 8.4%.

In February, Lowe’s projected earnings of 38 cents to 42 cents a share, 2% revenue growth and same-store sales down 5% to 7%.

“The challenging sales environment we have been experiencing for the past six quarters continued into the first quarter of 2008, and increasing financial pressures on consumers resulted in top-line sales that fell below our plan,” commented Robert A. Niblock, Lowe’s chairman and CEO. “The generally poor economic outlook, including well-known housing pressures, rising food and fuel prices and a more negative employment picture eroded consumer confidence and impacted discretionary purchases for the home.”

Now, I do not think anyone expected good results. These are poor but, here is the key:
“With our offering of great products and exceptional service, Lowe’s continued to gain market share in the quarter, and diligent expense control helped us achieve respectable earnings in spite of the headwinds facing the industry,” Niblock said

“Continuing to gain market share”. See, housing will eventually turn and Lowe’s is positioning itself through superior service and sensible balance sheet management to be ready to capitalize when it happens. Results will begin to look “less bad” as easier comps begin to come around this summer and into the fall and we will begin to get more of an apples to apples comparison for earnings based on housing levels.

Lowe’s is getting a larger piece of a smaller pie. When that pie expands (it will), their piece will grow in excess of Home Depot’s who inexplicably is still struggling with service issues and the hangover of promises made and not kept.

I have posted on Lowe’s a few times as to it’s attractiveness. It continues to be the one I would choose in the category.

Here are Q2’s expectations:
Second Quarter 2008 (comparisons to second quarter 2007)
— The company expects to open approximately 23 new stores reflecting
square footage growth of approximately 11 percent
— Total sales are expected to increase approximately 1 percent
— The company expects comparable store sales to decline 6 to 8 percent
— Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin is expected to decline
approximately 190 basis points driven by payroll, fixed costs,
depreciation and gross margin
— Store opening costs are expected to be approximately $22 million
— Diluted earnings per share of $0.54 to $0.59 are expected
— Lowe’s second quarter ends on August 1, 2008 with operating results to
be publicly released on Monday, August 18, 2008

I will let this quarter play out before making a decision. Should they hit the goals, I probably will be a buyer.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Lowe’s Profit Drop: Not All That Bad

If I am being honest, I would have thought this number would have been much worse…

Lowe’s (LOW), #2 behind Home Depot (HD) reported quarterly earnings came to $607 million, or 41 cents a diluted share, compared with $739 million, or 48 cents a share, a year earlier, a 14% decrease. Net sales dipped 1.3% to $12 billion, with same-store sales falling 8.4%.

In February, Lowe’s projected earnings of 38 cents to 42 cents a share, 2% revenue growth and same-store sales down 5% to 7%.

“The challenging sales environment we have been experiencing for the past six quarters continued into the first quarter of 2008, and increasing financial pressures on consumers resulted in top-line sales that fell below our plan,” commented Robert A. Niblock, Lowe’s chairman and CEO. “The generally poor economic outlook, including well-known housing pressures, rising food and fuel prices and a more negative employment picture eroded consumer confidence and impacted discretionary purchases for the home.”

Now, I do not think anyone expected good results. These are poor but, here is the key:
“With our offering of great products and exceptional service, Lowe’s continued to gain market share in the quarter, and diligent expense control helped us achieve respectable earnings in spite of the headwinds facing the industry,” Niblock said

“Continuing to gain market share”. See, housing will eventually turn and Lowe’s is positioning itself through superior service and sensible balance sheet management to be ready to capitalize when it happens. Results will begin to look “less bad” as easier comps begin to come around this summer and into the fall and we will begin to get more of an apples to apples comparison for earnings based on housing levels.

Lowe’s is getting a larger piece of a smaller pie. When that pie expands (it will), their piece will grow in excess of Home Depot’s who inexplicably is still struggling with service issues and the hangover of promises made and not kept.

I have posted on Lowe’s a few times as to it’s attractiveness. It continues to be the one I would choose in the category.

Here are Q2’s expectations:
Second Quarter 2008 (comparisons to second quarter 2007)
— The company expects to open approximately 23 new stores reflecting
square footage growth of approximately 11 percent
— Total sales are expected to increase approximately 1 percent
— The company expects comparable store sales to decline 6 to 8 percent
— Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin is expected to decline
approximately 190 basis points driven by payroll, fixed costs,
depreciation and gross margin
— Store opening costs are expected to be approximately $22 million
— Diluted earnings per share of $0.54 to $0.59 are expected
— Lowe’s second quarter ends on August 1, 2008 with operating results to
be publicly released on Monday, August 18, 2008

I will let this quarter play out before making a decision. Should they hit the goals, I probably will be a buyer.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Monday’s Links

Boston Herald, Nudity, Adam, Soros

– The first front page apology I have ever seen……call it fellatio?

– How can you lose money selling naked boobs?

– Adam nails it on this one

– I can’t stand the guy but he is self made so it bears listening to him…

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Monday's Links

Boston Herald, Nudity, Adam, Soros

– The first front page apology I have ever seen……call it fellatio?

– How can you lose money selling naked boobs?

– Adam nails it on this one

– I can’t stand the guy but he is self made so it bears listening to him…

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Harley Davidson (HOG) Recruits New Riders

A simple yet very common sense way for Harley Davidson (HOG) to attract new younger riders to the fold.

There have been a bunch of comments on blogs post about the “age and demographics” of Harley riders. The common refrain is that they are “55 year old guys” and that this is a reason that sales will eventually decline. It is not by the way, it is more like 47.

Other Demographic Facts:
52%—Owned a Harley-Davidson motorcycle previously at any point during lifetime
33%—Owned a competitive motorcycle previously
15%—First motorcycle purchased

I never get this argument because someone is always turning 55 unless there is a new law I am unaware of and the HOG is more prevalent on the road now than it ever was. Anyway, let’s go with it for arguments sake. What Harley would then have to do is try to appeal to a younger crowd, no? Turns out they are doing just that.

Harley Davidson is the only motorcycle manufacturer that offers a branded rider education program. It is currently active in 42 states through its authorized dealerships. Called the “Rider’s Edge New Rider Course“, it is a Motorcycle Safety Foundation certified program. The program includes both classroom instruction and training on a controlled range. Students learn how to ride on a Buell Blast, the lightweight, easy-to-handle “Sport Bike” with a rider-friendly design. Harley-Davidson dealerships across the country offer the Rider’s Edge Skilled Rider Course for motorcycle enthusiasts interested in taking their riding to the next level.

“Rider’s Edge” has trained in excess of 138,000 students with 39% of them being women. A survey in late 2003 showed that 84 percent of students get their licenses after completing the course.

Upon successful completion of the course, students receive an Motorcycle Safety Foundation Completion Card which, depending on their state of residence and insurance provider may et them a discount on insurance

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Pete Najarian likes Pride Int’l (PDE) $45.95

Karen Finerman recommends Golan (GLNG) $20.26

Guy Adami suggest Citigroup (C) $23.12

Jeff Mack thinks Microsoft (MSFT) $29.99 is a buy.

Friday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Citigroup (C) $23.73 Close $23.12 LOSS

Tim Seymour recommends NII Holdings (NIHD) $50.66 for consolidation in wireless. Close $50.53 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Sasol (SSL) $65.11 for mining.Close $65.94 GAIN

Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $59.80. Close $59.86 Gain

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 39-30-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 39-34
Pete Najarian= 37-33
Karen Finerman= 34-29-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Icahn on Texaco / Getty Lawsuit

Another funny story about Texaco

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Icahn Does Stand-Up

This is a funny story about his attempted US Steel (X) takeover

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Peltz and Starbucks: Bad for Schultz, Good for Shareholders

so famed investor Nelson Peltx has taken a just over 1% stake in Starbucks (SBUX). At least there is finally someone there who makes the stock (and company) interesting..

Recently, the billionaire has bought large stakes in Wendy’s (WEN), Kraft (KFT) and H.J. Heinz (HNZ) through his hedge fund. Peltz then pressured management to make changes aimed at improving profit margins and lifting stock prices. Typically Peltz pressures the companies to focus on the core of their businesses and divest sell off less-profitable endeavors.

Based on that alone one can expect the “Entertainment” division of Starbucks to be first on the chopping block. Rather than producing albums and books, let just get the coffee thing going in the right direction.

Starbucks is coming off a Q2 that saw net income fall 28% and its same store sales at U.S. locations fall by their widest margin ever. Management is going to have a real hard time dismissing any ideas Peltz puts forward based on both their current track records lately.

This is really good for shareholders. If nothing else, Peltz will remind them of what the chain really is supposed to be, a coffee house. Not a book and record producer. Not a coffee machine retailer. Not a baker and so forth. Just do coffee and do it very well and people will return.

Here is another idea. Why not franchise? Really, why? It may be a bizarre control things in Seattle but it works just fantastically for every other multi-location food retailer (yes, that is what you are). Franchise fees alone would add to the bottom line while reducing costs, freeing up money (not for expansion) but for buying back shares or actually giving shareholders a dividend. They deserve something after the last 18 months. Hell, put 10% to 20% of the US stores up for sale to “master franchisees” and watch the offers come pouring in.

It would work…..if they will just listen out there which, unfortunately, is not a given..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Borders (BGP) to Sell Paperchase

Looking for a price tag of about $80 million, borders (BGP) has put the UK Paperchase stationary retailer up for sale.

Paperchase has more than 100 stores and concessions, including ones in House of Fraser and Selfridges department stores in the UK. Recently, (2005) is has begun opening concessions in US Borders stores.

Reports are that Goldman Sachs (GS) has been hired to conduct a review that ought to lead to a sale.

I am not sure this is the best thing long term for Borders but, given the current retail environment, it is a necessary step to pay down some debt, restore more liquidity and let’s be honest, make it more attractive to a buyer.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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Bush and Saudi’s: What Actually Happened?

So I go outside and pick up my paper this mornings and well, it seems there is a difference of opinion…

The Wall St. Journal ran the headline “Saudi’s Rebuff Bush on Oil” saying the Kingdom refused to increase oil production.

The Financial Times ran the headline “Saudi’s Bow to Oil Pressure” and said the Saudi’s agreed to increase production 300,000 bpd to the highest levels in two years…

Anyone know what actually happened???????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long oil (USO)

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Bush and Saudi's: What Actually Happened?

So I go outside and pick up my paper this mornings and well, it seems there is a difference of opinion…

The Wall St. Journal ran the headline “Saudi’s Rebuff Bush on Oil” saying the Kingdom refused to increase oil production.

The Financial Times ran the headline “Saudi’s Bow to Oil Pressure” and said the Saudi’s agreed to increase production 300,000 bpd to the highest levels in two years…

Anyone know what actually happened???????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long oil (USO)

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Saturday Reading

Check out the College Analysts, Lead Paint

James Cullen has a great write up on American Express (AXP).

Jane Genova says the Fat Lady is singing at the RI Lead Paint Trial…for the plaintiff

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading at VIN

Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News

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Yahoo’s (YHOO) Yang Officially Out of His League (and mind)

What is Jerry Yang doing? It is one thing to thumb your nose at Microsoft’s (MSFT) Ballmer, but, to do it at Icahn? Jerry, you are officially out of your league…

Yang replied to Icahn’s letter today:

You see, Ballmer ultimately has to play nice because he did not want a mutiny of Yahoo (YHOO) employees when he took over. Icahn, however, could care less. Ballmer will sit back and let Carl get his knuckles dirty beating Yang’s head into the ground and still get what he wants.

Carl does care about Yahoo, he only wants to make a buck. Yang is operating like Carl wants to own Yahoo. The “you do not understand” line must have had Carl howling. No, Jerry, it is you who do not understand who you are no up against. Do what Carl says or he will take control of the board and you will be reading about the already determined outcome in the papers. This is hard ball now and Icahn makes the rules…

By the time this is over, Yang and his cohorts will beg Ballmer to come save them. Anyone want to guess the deal get done for less than $33? You think Microsoft is not buying shares on the open market at $25 to $27?

$37…. really Jerry? It would be another decade before Yahoo saw shares trade at that level. Walk away Jerry, you already took care of yourself.

Here is more:

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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