Here is a video of Borders (BGP) new concept store in Michigan.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Thursday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Western Digital (WDC) $27.57
Karen Finerman recommends shorting Capital One (COF) $53.18
Pete Nararian thinks Nokia (NOK) $33.7 is a buy.
Jeff Macke likes Apple (AAPL) $147.49
Wednesday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Microsoft (MSFT) $29.4999 Close $29.16 LOSS
Guy Adami thinks FedEx (FDX) $97.71 looks compelling at current levels. Close $97.33 LOSS
Pete Najarian recommends buying puts on the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) $26.62 Close $26.50 GAIN
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 23-17
Tim Seymore= 14-8
Guy Adami= 21-22
Pete Najarian= 24-19
Karen Finerman= 18-22-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
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For those who may not know yet, Google Finance finally has a stock screener. It is very usable but needs more criteria.
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PMI, Sears, Adam vs Cramer, Obama,
– Want a taste of what Philip Morris International can do?
– Now, this is a really great concept…
– I tell you what, Adam is rapidly becoming the person to go to when one wants to catch the latest Cramerism….
– Let’s put the race issue he and his supporters always raise so they can tell us we “need to get past this” for a moment. His economic ideas ought to terrify people.
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
PMI, Sears, Adam vs Cramer, Obama,
– Want a taste of what Philip Morris International can do?
– Now, this is a really great concept…
– I tell you what, Adam is rapidly becoming the person to go to when one wants to catch the latest Cramerism….
– Let’s put the race issue he and his supporters always raise so they can tell us we “need to get past this” for a moment. His economic ideas ought to terrify people.
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
What to do with financials?
So, here is the basic dilemma investors find themselves in.
Who to believe? They both have been dead on and are considered the best. Regular readers know my stance on analysts as a whole, but, I will give credit where it is due. When it comes to banks, these two have made calls that look prophetic.
The answer to this one depends on your time frame. If you are looking to cash in in the next month or two, I think Whitney may be your guide. I do not agree with her dire stance though. There may be individual instances of failures on a small scale and even Bernanke has admitted that. The sector as a whole though does not have much more downside. I think she may have over extended herself on that one.
Now, if you do not mid waiting for a while and collecting a nice fat dividend in the meantime, Bove is your guy. Personally I lack the ability to time the markets but even I can notice bad news is not hurting us very much anymore and that is a sign that expectations are lousy and people are beginning to look past them to the future.
I think when we look back at this years from now, both will be able to claim some sort of victory. Currently I hold Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Wachovia (WB) and have no plans of selling any of them anytime soon.
We’ll see…
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I tried watching this on TV but watching the blowhards in Congress incessantly drone on in sound bites like “rainman” just is too much for a human to be expected to bear. I can’t be expected to “take one for the team” every time these guys decide to put on the dog and pony show.
That being said, I decided to read in quiet…
Here is the outlook:
“Overall, the near-term economic outlook has weakened relative to the projections released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the end of January. It now appears likely that real gross domestic product (GDP) will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly. We expect economic activity to strengthen in the second half of the year, in part as the result of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies; and growth is expected to proceed at or a little above its sustainable pace in 2009, bolstered by a stabilization of housing activity, albeit at low levels, and gradually improving financial conditions. However, in light of the recent turbulence in financial markets, the uncertainty attending this forecast is quite high and the risks remain to the downside.”
“Inflation has also been a source of concern. The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 3.4 percent over the twelve months ending in February, up from 2.3 percent over the preceding twelve-month period. To a large extent, this pickup in inflation has been the result of sharp increases in the prices of crude oil, agricultural products, and other globally traded commodities. Additionally, the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar has boosted some non-commodity import prices and thus contributed to inflation. However, the so-called core rate of inflation–that is, inflation excluding food and energy prices–has edged down recently after firming somewhat late last year.”
“We expect inflation to moderate in coming quarters. That expectation is based, in part, on futures markets’ indications of a leveling out of prices for oil and other commodities, and it is consistent with our projection that global growth–and thus the demand for commodities–will slow somewhat during this period. And, as I noted, we project an easing of pressures on resource utilization. However, some indicators of inflation expectations have risen, and, overall, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully in the months ahead.”
This is the first time in recent memory I can recall his mentioning of the “exchange rate of the dollar” in testimony as being an issue. If nothing else, it does show that the issue is not being ignored and Bernanke does recognize that perhaps the single best tool he has against inflation currently is to take actions that inflate the value of the dollar.
He finished by saying:
“Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period. But among the great strengths of our economy is its ability to adapt and to respond to diverse challenges. Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year. I remain confident in our economy’s long-term prospects.”
None of this is really earth shattering stuff. The dollar mention was the most significant for me, although I have yet to hear it discussed by thew talking heads on TV. It is too bad because the Q&A in an election year is always a “circus of irrelevance” when it comes to the substance of the questions. Perhaps though the speech was rather benign because, well, that is the current environment out there?
I think one would be real hard pressed to think we have not stabilized and most of the bad news is now old news and what matters most is now this summer and fall.
That being said, if we do accelerate after this winter in the second half, Bernanke ought to get a bust on Capital Hill after what he just navigated the world through…
Review the whole text here:
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Bernanke
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
I tried watching this on TV but watching the blowhards in Congress incessantly drone on in sound bites like “rainman” just is too much for a human to be expected to bear. I can’t be expected to “take one for the team” every time these guys decide to put on the dog and pony show.
That being said, I decided to read in quiet…
Here is the outlook:
“Overall, the near-term economic outlook has weakened relative to the projections released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the end of January. It now appears likely that real gross domestic product (GDP) will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly. We expect economic activity to strengthen in the second half of the year, in part as the result of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies; and growth is expected to proceed at or a little above its sustainable pace in 2009, bolstered by a stabilization of housing activity, albeit at low levels, and gradually improving financial conditions. However, in light of the recent turbulence in financial markets, the uncertainty attending this forecast is quite high and the risks remain to the downside.”
“Inflation has also been a source of concern. The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 3.4 percent over the twelve months ending in February, up from 2.3 percent over the preceding twelve-month period. To a large extent, this pickup in inflation has been the result of sharp increases in the prices of crude oil, agricultural products, and other globally traded commodities. Additionally, the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar has boosted some non-commodity import prices and thus contributed to inflation. However, the so-called core rate of inflation–that is, inflation excluding food and energy prices–has edged down recently after firming somewhat late last year.”
“We expect inflation to moderate in coming quarters. That expectation is based, in part, on futures markets’ indications of a leveling out of prices for oil and other commodities, and it is consistent with our projection that global growth–and thus the demand for commodities–will slow somewhat during this period. And, as I noted, we project an easing of pressures on resource utilization. However, some indicators of inflation expectations have risen, and, overall, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully in the months ahead.”
This is the first time in recent memory I can recall his mentioning of the “exchange rate of the dollar” in testimony as being an issue. If nothing else, it does show that the issue is not being ignored and Bernanke does recognize that perhaps the single best tool he has against inflation currently is to take actions that inflate the value of the dollar.
He finished by saying:
“Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period. But among the great strengths of our economy is its ability to adapt and to respond to diverse challenges. Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year. I remain confident in our economy’s long-term prospects.”
None of this is really earth shattering stuff. The dollar mention was the most significant for me, although I have yet to hear it discussed by thew talking heads on TV. It is too bad because the Q&A in an election year is always a “circus of irrelevance” when it comes to the substance of the questions. Perhaps though the speech was rather benign because, well, that is the current environment out there?
I think one would be real hard pressed to think we have not stabilized and most of the bad news is now old news and what matters most is now this summer and fall.
That being said, if we do accelerate after this winter in the second half, Bernanke ought to get a bust on Capital Hill after what he just navigated the world through…
Review the whole text here:
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Bernanke
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
On Friday the United Steelworkers and International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Local 2-209, is expected t approve a 4 year deal with Harley Davidson (HOG). Terms have not been disclosed.
Last summer 2,900 workers in York., PA struck and finally agreed to a 12% pay raise over 4 years and the agreement is widely thought to be a blueprint for the current negotiations.
Now that HOG has put to rest labor issues the timing of this is very good for the company. Dealer inventories are reported to be tight all over and the spring selling season is beginning in earnest. With that being said, the last thing HOG would want at this time was a labor disruption that would cause delivery disruptions to dealers.
While 2008 is not supposed to be a banner year for sales by any means, all evidence is that the company and its dealer network have done a wonderful job controlling inventory levels.
With possible labor issues behind it, HOG will now be able to control production on its own term to assure steady inventory levels.
Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long HOG
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Upgrades
Global Payment (GPN)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Teekay Offshore (TOO)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Enbridge Energy (EEP)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Buckeye GP Hldgs (BGH)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Bunge (BG)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Oxford Industries (OXM)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Aracruz Celulose (ARA)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Akamai Tech (AKAM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Hess (HES)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
UBS (AG)- UBS Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
ANSYS (ANSS)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
AstraZeneca (AZN)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Unilever PLC (UL)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
VMware (VMW)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Downgrades
Rollins, Inc. (ROL0- Davenport Buy » Neutral
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Rowan Cos (RDC)- CapitalOne southcoast Strong Buy » Add
Rowan Cos (RDC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Dell (DELL)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
AmeriGas Partners (APU)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
KKR Financial (KFN)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Hospitality Props (HPT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Gymboree (GYMB)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
The Buckle (BKE)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Avocent (AVCT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Realty Income (O)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
MCG Capital (MCGC)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
American Capital (ACAS)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Eaton (ETN)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
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Upgrades
Global Payment (GPN)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Teekay Offshore (TOO)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Enbridge Energy (EEP)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Buckeye GP Hldgs (BGH)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Bunge (BG)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Oxford Industries (OXM)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Aracruz Celulose (ARA)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Akamai Tech (AKAM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Hess (HES)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
UBS (AG)- UBS Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
ANSYS (ANSS)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
AstraZeneca (AZN)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Unilever PLC (UL)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
VMware (VMW)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Downgrades
Rollins, Inc. (ROL0- Davenport Buy » Neutral
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Rowan Cos (RDC)- CapitalOne southcoast Strong Buy » Add
Rowan Cos (RDC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Dell (DELL)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
AmeriGas Partners (APU)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
KKR Financial (KFN)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Hospitality Props (HPT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Gymboree (GYMB)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
The Buckle (BKE)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Avocent (AVCT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Realty Income (O)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
MCG Capital (MCGC)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
American Capital (ACAS)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Eaton (ETN)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
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Wednesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Microsoft (MSFT) $29.4999
Guy Adami thinks FedEx (FDX) $97.71 looks compelling at current levels.
Pete Najarian recommends buying puts on the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) $26.62
Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) $96.22 Close $97.63 GAIN
Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $143.5 Close $148.53 GAIN
Karen Finerman likes Golar (GLNG) $18.27 Close $19.50 GAIN
Pete Najarian thinks Research in Motion (RIMM) $112.23 is a buy. Close $117.48 GAIN
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 23-16
Tim Seymore= 14-8
Guy Adami= 21-21
Pete Najarian= 23-19
Karen Finerman= 18-22-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
Tax Freedom, Russian Brides, iTunes, Housing, Bullying Part II
– We work almost 4 months of the year just to pay our taxes…way too much
– I guess the real issue here is that some people actually need to be told this might not be on the “up and up”?
– When will they live up to the promises Job’s makes?
– Finally, some common sense.
– It seems Billy may now have some fans…
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
Tax Freedom, Russian Brides, iTunes, Housing, Bullying Part II
– We work almost 4 months of the year just to pay our taxes…way too much
– I guess the real issue here is that some people actually need to be told this might not be on the “up and up”?
– When will they live up to the promises Job’s makes?
– Finally, some common sense.
– It seems Billy may now have some fans…
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
The last couple of weeks have been interest for Wal-Mart (WMT) shareholders.
Fresh off the news that the stock was the best performer on the DOW Jones for Q1, investors got more good news.
* Wal-Mart’s Great Value milk is now being sourced exclusively from cows that have not been treated with artificial growth hormones like recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST). Sam’s Club is also exclusively offering milk selections from suppliers that have pledged not to treat cows with rbST.
* Later this month Wal-Mart will begin selling six coffees under the Sam’s Choice brand in all of its U.S. stores. The line includes Sam’s Choice Fair Trade certified coffee, Sam’s Choice Rainforest Alliance certified coffee, and Sam’s Choice USDA organic decaffeinated coffee. Wal-Mart also said the six coffees are certified as “carbon neutral” because Cafe Bom Dia, its Brazil-based coffee roaster, has cut its net carbon emissions to zero. A twelve ounce bag of the coffee’s will be priced about $1 lower than competitors brands.
Wal-Mart seems to have its mojo back in giving customers what they want at prices they want. When the chain ran into trouble at the turn of the century it did so by trying to dictate to people what they wanted, lower and lower prices on goods. Quality inevitably suffered and shoppers fled. The plan failed and Target (TGT) rushed in to fill the void.
People want what they want and the current trend out there is for organic products. Rather than rushing for the lowest price milk and sourcing it from wherever, Wal-Mart is now listening to customers and giving them what they want, at low prices.
It would seem they have recognized that people are far more willing to pay $5.99 for a twelve oz. bag of organic coffee compared to $2.99 for a 12 oz. bag of hard brown beans. Now that they have recognized this, the edge Target had over the chain is lost.
There is not an organization out there today that is more capable at sourcing and pricing its products to make them more affordable customers. Now that they have realized that people do want the things they want and have decided to give it to them in better looking stores, the freight train that is Wal-Mart is back on track.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, None
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