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52 Week Low’s 1/22


(WYN) Wyndham Worldwide Corp = $20.03
(WYE ) Wyeth =$42.29
(WPZ ) Williams Partners LP= $96.80
(TLGD) Tollgrade Communicati ..=$. 6.74
(TLF ) Tandy Leather Factory Inc =$ 2.60
(SYMC) Symantec Corp =$14.98
(SWWC) Southwest Water Company =$11.00
(SWHC ) Smith & Wesson Hldg Corp =$4.18
(SLE ) Sara Lee Corporation =$14.06
(SJM ) Smucker J M Co =$44.52
(RHT ) Red Hat Inc =$17.65
(RFMD) Rf Microdevices Inc=$ 3.18
(REP ) Repsol, S.A. =$29.93
(PFE ) Pfizer Inc =$22.12
(NYT ) New York Times Company=$ 14.45
(NWS ) News Corp =$19.08
(MNST) Monster Worldwide Inc =$26.56
(LXK ) Lexmark International … =$ 28.45
(KONA) Kona Grill Inc =$10.22
(KFT ) Kraft Foods Inc =$29.80
(K ) Kellogg Company =$47.59
(HMC) Honda Motor Co., Ltd.=$ 28.78
(HMA ) Health Management Ass .=$. 5.07
(GIS ) General Mills, Inc =$53.07
(DOM) Dominion Resources Bl ..=$ 16.43
(DNN ) Denison Mines Corp =$6.69
(DNB ) Dun & Bradstreet Corp …=$ 80.93
(DBD ) Diebold, Incorporated =$24.18
(DB ) Deutsche Bank Ag =$111.91
(DAVE) Famous Dave’s of Amer …=$ 9.93
(CPB ) Campbell Soup Company =431.12
(CAKE) The Cheesecake Factor … =$18.21
(CAG) ConAgra Inc =$21.54

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Fed Statement

Here is what the Fed had to say as it cuts rates 75 basis points.

Banks like Wachovia (WB), Bank of America (BAC) are lowering their prime rates today as a results of the surprise Fed cut. Expect Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and others to follow if not later today, then this week.

“The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.”

In early Jan I wrote
“that “nothing cures high prices like high prices”. The simple explanation of that is that as prices climb, demand decreases. As milk climbs to $5 a gallon, people buy less of it sand the price falls. As oil climbs to and then past $100 a barrel, people will decrease gas use and the use of products that are affected by the price of oil. That will slow the economy and that slowdown ought to crimp the inflation that seemed to rise in December”

Oil has eased down to $90 a barrel and looks to be heading lower. This is the reason for the outlook that inflation has eased and the flexibility for a big cut. It is a double edged sword as poor growth necessitate the rate cuts that we all love.

Recession? Just talk. We need 6 months of negative growth for one. To date we have not even had one. We are getting way ahead of ourselves with that talk… way ahead…

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Tuesday’s Links

Fear, iPhone, Farmers, Judgment

– Chad Brand has a great point about all the “doomsdayers” out there.

– First France’s sales are below expectations and now the UK’s are…

– The Brazilian farmer is becoming the world’s best…

– People make the oddest choices

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KIVA Loan Payment Made

Ada Laura Zumaeta De Toguchi has repaid 17% of her loan..

From KIVA:
The business you have loaned to, run by Ada Laura Zumaeta De Toguchi, has made a repayment of $171.00. The total amount repaid is now $171.00. This repayment will be divided amongst all the lenders who helped to fund this business, depending upon the percentage each lender contributed.

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Get Ready

Hold on tight…..today has the makings of a crazy day..

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Who Will Buy Sprint?

With shares down 61% the last 6 months and a market cap of just $24 billion now, just how long will the nations 3rd largest wireless carrier, Sprint (S) remain independent?

Who would want them? Two main candidates.
Google (GOOG):
Reports are Google is going to bid $4 billion for wireless spectrum in an upcoming auction. At this point and price, why not take Sprint’s spectrum and get 54 million subscribers to boot? With the gPhone launching soon, wouldn’t a cheap Sprint be the perfect platform? Sprint’s main problem is subscriber losses, if current subscribers thought they might get first crack at a new phone, that exodus would if not halt, be severely curtailed.

Google was first rumored to be interested in Sprint when late last year when shares were more than twice their current level and the company sported a near $50 billion market cap. If they are interested, time is wasting. At these levels, a bunch of folks may begin sniffing around.

Comcast (CMCSA):
With both Verizon (VZ) and AT%T (T) encroaching on their cable TV subscribers, would not a tie up between the two be advantageous for both. Comcast would instantly be a player in the wireless game and Sprint would be able to offer wireless services bundled into Comcast’s cable subscriptions. Comcast currently sports a $52 billion market cap and could do the deal. Indiviually, Sprint and Comcast cannot offer the breadth of services Verizon and AT&T are, together, they would be a very formidable foe.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Is Anyone Watching LIBOR?

Lost in all the wailing over Fed funds rate, a stimulus plan, the election, and bank rights off has been perhaps the most important news facing home owners with ARM’s.

The LIBOR rate, the interest rate that most adjustable rate mortgages are tied to has fallen from a multi year high of near 6% in early 2007 to a level of 3.9%, the lowest since Sept. 2005.

What this means is that the $385 billion in mortgages tied to it that will reset in 2008 will do so at far lower levels than homeowners were looking at less than a year ago. Of all the news we have been assaulted with in the past three weeks, this news is what really matters most.

While Bernanke has been constantly criticized by stock investors this months, his actions at the Fed ought to be cheered by homeowners. The stabilizing of this market will help all our home values and in turn our stock portfolios.

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Sprint Nextel (S)= Pali Research Sell » Neutral
Arch Chemicals (ARJ)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Advanced Micro (AMD)= AmTech Research Hold » Buy
Perini (PCR)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
BB&T Corp (BBT)= Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)= Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
LaserCard (LCRD)= Stanford Research Sell » Hold
Fluor (FLR)= Stanford Research Sell » Hold
KC Southern (KSU)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Endo Pharm (ENDP)= Citigroup Sell » Hold
Sealed Air (SEE)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Potash (POT)= Scotia Capital Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Seagate Tech (STX)= Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy $33
St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Staples (SPLS)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Research In Motion( RIMM)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Cerner (CERN)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Wrigley (WWY)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
priceline.com (PCLN)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Double Hull Tankers (DHT)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Brookfield Asset Mngmt (BAM)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
RPC Inc (RES)= Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
PNC Bank (PNC)= Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral
Security Capital Assurance (SCA)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
MBIA Inc (MBI)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Advanced Life Sciences (ADLS)= Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
AptarGroup (ATR)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Stanley Inc. (SXE)= Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
Express Scripts (ESRX)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
MBIA Inc (MBI)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
Stryker (SYK)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Under Armour (UA)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Zymogenetics (ZGEN)= Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
PrivateBancorp (PVTB )=Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Comerica (CMA)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Security Capital Assurance (SCA)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
MBIA Inc (MBI)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Royal Philips Electronics (PHG)= Lehman Brothers Overweight » Underweight

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"Fast Money for" Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks (markets closed Monday)

None

Friday’s Results
Macke, Adami and Finerman all recommend buying if the market gaps significantly lower at the open in the morning.

For example, if the Dow average .DJIA 12159.21 opens down 200 points that will be a sign of capitulation. Can’t track this one…….

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 3-1
Jeff Macke= 4-3
Tim Seymore= 2-1
Guy Adami= 3-5
Pete Najarian= 3-3
Karen Finerman= 3-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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Monday’s Liks

Goldman, Snipes, IRS, IRS

– What made them different when it came to mortages?

– Just goes to show you, brains and wealth are not necessarily connected.

– More people are getting audited

– Especially if you are a millionaire

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Sears Advertising Now Featuring Brands

Anyone else catch the NFL network today?

All season the shows have been sponsored by Sears (SLHD), the store.

Today, the pre-game show is being sponsored by “Craftsmen, available at Sears”. The Craftsmen logo is all over everything..

The commercials, once the “Sears Book” variety are now Kenmore commercials, “available at Sears”.

This would lead one the believe Friday’s announcement about breaking up Sears into a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) like holding company has been in the works for some time and Sears Holdings is farther ahead of this than many believe.

Ad campaigns are not altered on a dime.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, None

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Sprint: A Good Service Experience?

After blogging about the “shortcomings” of the customer experience being a Sprint (S) subscriber, something really different happened. I had a great experience…

After a recent ice storm both my cell and internet reception was affected. Usually when this happens, I begin to cry because I know what is in store for me. A static filled call to a foreign land with someone who cannot speak or understand the language I speak and seems ill-equipped to handle the problem I have (or any problem that involves me explaining it in English).

Imagine my surprise when I placed the call and the person who answered the phone had a southern accent. I was filled with a joy I had not experienced since the merger between Sprint and Nextel. The person on the phone was pleasant and helpful..

After a transfer to another department and the angst ridden wait on hold as I pondered the astronomical odds of yet another rep that spoke my language, I began to leap for joy as the voice on the phone said as clear as day, “can I help you?”.

I explained my problem and they deduced it was a problem with the tower in my area and said they would send a crew to fix it. An hour later it was..

New CEO Dan Hesse has said his first priority is fixing the customer service issues plaguing the company…. so far so good from where I sit, finally.

With both Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) still adding customers, this is step one in any turnaround for the company. Last quarter Sprint lost 683,000 “post-paid” subscribers which are the most valuable customers. They have long-term contracts and pay bills each month. This was about three times the 250,000 that the Street estimated they would lose. These losses are especially damaging because those customers probably signed on to one or two year contracts with AT&T and Verizon Wireless and are gone for a while.

While the stock got hammered Friday, was anyone really surprised at those results? Sprint has bee rolling downhill for over a year now. The good news at least for shareholders is that they at least seem to be fixing their largest problem..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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This Week’s Dividend Hikes


BNC Bancorp-(BNCN)= 11.1%
Cintas Corp-(CTAS) =17.9%
First Busey Corp-(BUSE) = 11.1%
First Community Corp-(FCCO)= 14.3 %
Intel Corp-(INTC)= 13.3%
Schlumberger Ltd-(SLB)= 20.0%
Linear Technology-(LLTC) = 16.7%

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Lampert’s Move: Yes, Its About Brands

Eddie Lampert’s move at Sears Holdings (SHLD) on Friday is a big one in unlocking value at the retailer.

In November I stressed that Sears was not so much of a retailer story but a brand one. The general idea was that post and several others was that Lampert would eventually leverage the quality brands he has.

The Wall St. Journal reported Saturday that Lampert is doing just that.

Said the Journal, “A Sears spokesman confirmed the moves late Friday, saying the new structure will provide operating businesses with “greater control, authority and autonomy.”

It continued, “The contemplated restructuring would create separate units to manage Sears’s real-estate holdings and run brands such as Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. It isn’t clear how the units would be divided or which unit would run the stores themselves.

The structure would allow Mr. Lampert to spin off or close business units more easily, said a person knowledgeable about his thinking. “He warmed to the idea of a spin-off strategy,” this person said. The company also is willing to be flexible about how each unit will be set up, based on the skills of its operating executive. One practical effect of that could be to reduce costs.”

He is essentially setting up Sears like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

This is probably the single best thing Lampert could have done. Why? Let’s say I am the newly minted head of the Kenmore line. What is my first move? Pick up the phone and call Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) and see who want to sell some of the best appliances out there. When I hang up, I tell them they can expect a call from the Craftsmen guy next. Will they license the brands to GE (GE) to expand sales even more?

Will we see Diehard batteries in Wal-Mart’s (WMT) or Targets’s (TGT) automotive sections soon? How about AutoZone’s (AZ)?

With Wal-Mart consistently trying to upgrade it apparel options, could we see either Lands End, Joe Boxer, Covington, Structure or Canyon River Blues on the shelves? With Target looking for refreshed options after a very disappointing holiday season, might they take a stab at it?

The main issue with Sears as it is set up now is that the closing of questionable locations now dramatically impacts sales. If the brands are being sold through other locations, closing and selling stores can have a more positive effect on the bottom line as the sales impact is not nearly as great but the expense reduction is the same.

We know Target has been begging Lampert to sell them hundreds of locations. Could the newly separated real estate management arm rather than selling them become a landlord to Target? Rather than just closing a Kmart location, rent it to Target. In that respect, that division becomes a REIT to the holding company. With 3,500 locations under it, the options are incredible.

The point is that if the main brands that account for the majority of the profits currently are licensed and sold through other outlets, the importance of the physical stores are diminished. It also means that Sears now has more options for the marginal stores it may be carrying now. Sears could keep the best and most profitable locations while disposing of the lesser ones through leases or outright sales and keep merchandise sales and profits going through other retailers.

This is exciting..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, Long Wal-Mart, None in others

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This Week’s Insider Buys

Ruby Tuesday Inc (RT)= $4,399,115
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD)= $4,180,220
Antigenics Inc De (AGEN)= $ 3,912,969
Zhongpin Inc (HOGS)= $ 3,901,573
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)= $ 2,060,639
Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)= $1,830,000
Shoretel Inc (SHOR)= $ 1,278,979
American Capital Strategies Ltd (ACAS)= $1,275,289
Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (XTLB)= $ 1,262,070
Stein Mart Inc (SMRT)= $1,143,441
Iomega Corp (IOM)= $ 1,111,895

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