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Dow’s New JV: A Game Changer

We found out the reason for the investor day that was delayed in November. The scope of this surprised even me and it does qualify as a “transformational event”. Dow Chemical (DOW) just became the world’s largest integrated petrochemical processor.

Andrew N. Liveris, Dow Chairman and CEO said “We’re creating a petrochemicals company that will be a global leader from its first day of operation, an $11 billion company that is well positioned to grow profitably across the industry cycle.” He continued, “For Dow, this marks an important milestone in our transformational strategy: growing our Basics businesses through joint ventures; reducing our capital intensity; and, freeing up cash to invest in our portfolio of Performance and Market Facing businesses.”

To form the new company with the Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) of the State of Kuwait, Dow will sell to PIC a 50% interest in the business assets included in the transaction. In turn, both PIC and Dow will place their share of the assets into the joint venture, with each party then taking a 50% equity interest in the new company. The value of the five Dow global businesses that will form the joint venture is approximately $19 billion and Dow will receive approximately $9.5 billion from PIC for the 50% interest.

The JV, to be headquartered in the United States, will manufacture and market polyethylene, ethylenamines, ethanolamines, polypropylene, and polycarbonate used in products ranging from plastic bottles, compact disks and computers to agricultural compounds. The JV is expected to have revenues of more than $11 billion (pro forma) and employ more than 5,000 people worldwide. It creates new global player with enhanced capabilities to grow –especially in China, India and the Middle East. Currently they are working with China’s Sinopec on refinery projects in the country.

The JV is not anticipated to require ANY cash infusions from Dow in the future as it will be self financed. On the conference call, Dow said that the current state of the balance sheet as well as the almost $10 billion cash infusion when the JV closes in 2008, will allow Dow to undertake “an aggressive M&A” strategy should they wish. Based on the tone of the call, Dow is st to become a more aggressive buyer in the very near future.

With the debt to capital ration down to roughly 30% from almost 60% in 2003, there won’t be much Dow will not be able to accomplish in terms of acquisitions should they desire. Liveris confirmed this by saying, “Frankly, we can now do any deal we wish”.

Possibilities? Since Dow did want to merge with DuPont (DD) a little more than a year ago now, it now has the means to just buy the company. A more likely scenario would be Dow buying into DuPont’s argi businesses and creating yet another JV out of them. I won’t say Sherwin William’s again (SHW) as I think I have beat that drum to death. Monsanto (MON) now could easily be swallowed although its price currently may be an issue. The two are already working together on a seed project so a relationship already exists.

Liveris also said, “As far as additional deals to replace the earnings to Dow being transferred into the joint venture, you can count on it”. Management followed up later in response to a question about acquisitions or share repurchases saying, “In the absence of value creating acquisitions, we will be aggressively repurchasing our stock”.

As of 12/13, the dividend has been maintained or raised for 95 years and has been raised 25% since January 2006 alone a million shares have been repurchased since January 2006 representing almost 5% of shares outstanding.

Liveris finished the investor call by saying.. “Stay tuned, the Dow Chemical Company ain’t done yet”..

Believe him..

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Ohio Dismisses Lead Paint Suit

This saga is just about over. Sherwin Williams (SHW) just keeps getting good news almost daily now.

Jane Genova posted on Wednesday:

“Toldeo, OH Lead Public Nuisance Case Dismissed by Judge Franks

The news is that today Judge Ruth Franks dismissed the City of Toledo, Ohio lead paint public nuisance case against the former lead-paint companies, including Sherwin-Williams. The plaintiff was represented by law firm Motley Rice. The only remaining city lawsuit in this category in OH is that of the City of Columbus.

But it is the line of argument used by Judge Franks in her opinion that is getting the attention of lead-paint watchers, especially attorneys on both sides. This Judge goes through each of the plaintiff’s claims and the defendants’ contentions why the case should be dismissed. Then in this 12-page opinion she cites each legal issue and why or why not it led her to her decision.

Because of this painstaking analysis of the legal matters and that the Judge dismissed the case, a number of defense attorneys predict this is a promising sign that it is the legal arguments which will win out in any future litigation and reviews of the lead-paint public nuisance matter.

What is also encouraging to the defense bar is that in this particular situation, as Judge Franks writes, “When ruling on a motion to dismiss, the complaint is to be construed in a light most favorable to the plaintiff and material allegations are taken as admitted … To sustain a motion to dismiss it must appear beyond doubt from the complaint that no set of facts exists which may entitle the plaintiff to the relief requested.” [Complimentary copy of the opinion is available from MGenova981@aol.com.]

In its first cause of action, the City of Toledo claimed a public nuisance. It alleged that the defendant had created it by negligent or intentional conduct. This breached its duty to exercise the highest degree of care in the design, manufacture etc. of lead. As a direct and proximate cause of this public nuisance, plaintiff has suffered and will continue to suffer substantial injuries and damages.

In their motion to dismiss, the defendants argued:

* Public nuisance claim is subsumed and barred by Ohio’s Product Liability Act
* The claim is barred by the statue of limitations
* Plaintiff fails to allege that defendants control the alleged public nuisance
* Continued presence of intact lead cannot be considered a nuisance because it is legislatively permitted. [the lead-safe issue].

Given that Judge Franks explicitly addressed each side’s contentions, this is a key opinion in the lead-paint public nuisance saga.

Note: The law firm Motley Rice is not representing the State of OH in its public nuisance lead-paint lawsuit filed by state Attorney General Marc Dann.” End Post

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Citigroup Adds SIV’s to Balance Sheet: So What?

Am I the only one who just does not see the big deal here?

Citigroup (C) announced it is bringing $49 billion in assets onto its balance sheet by adding seven SIV’s to the company’s ledgers. The SIVs currently have $49 billion in assets, down from $87 billion in August. Like other banks, it has been selling the SIVs’ assets recently to ease pressure on the vehicles. Banks such as HSBC (HBC) and Bank of America (BAC), have also sold assets to support their SIVs.

Why is this just not a huge deal? When you talk about Citi, unless you are talking about figures in the hundred of billions of dollars, it just does not add up to much when you look at Citi’s near two trillion dollar asset base.

Witness, by bringing the SIV assets onto its balance sheet, Citigroup will see Tier 1 capital ratio, the gauge of the bank’s ability to absorb huge losses drop 16 basis points from about 7.3% as of Sept. 30, to 7.14%. While that is below the company’s internal target level of 7.5%, it still will remain above regulatory requirements.

Now the usual talk is out there about a dividend cut as Betsy Graseck, a Morgan Stanley analyst said that if the SIV assets were brought onto Citigroup’s balance sheet, the company would need to cut its quarterly dividend to 30 cents from 54 cents next year.

Won’t happen. Should the dividend get cut, after the board has denied it will and Pandit has supported that with his statements, the stock would get decimated. Will there be asset sales to assure it will not happen? Probably. If one of Pandit’s first moves at the helm is to announce a dividend cut, he is dead in the water.

Investors will call for his and the boards heads…. assuming they have some sort of desire for self preservation in their DNA, I will say that avoid that scenario at all cost. It does give the analysts nice headlines every time they come out and say it though…

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Biogen Idec BIIB Piper Jaffray Sell » Neutral
Sunoco SUN Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Cree CREE Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Kilroy Realty KRC Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Cynosure CYNO Citigroup Hold » Buy
BMC Software BMC Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Biogen Idec BIIB Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
SLM Corp SLM Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
ADC Telecom ADCT Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
American Dental ADPI Dougherty & Company Buy » Neutral
Select Comfort SCSS Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform
Colnl BancGrp CNB Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dynegy DYN Calyon Securities Buy » Add
Capital One COF Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Baldor Electric BEZ Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Par Pharmaceutical PRX Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Plantronics PLT JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Washington Mutual WM Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Red Hat RHT Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Lampert Still Adding to AutoNation (AN) Stake

In another SEC filings Thursday night Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert again added to his AutoNation (AN) stake.

Lampert acquired an additional 573,200 shares of the company at prices between $15.74 and $16.32 a share on 12/12. This brings the total number of shares under his control to 58.5 million or just over 32% of the total.

Shares are held by the following entities controlled by Lampert:

*Shares of common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Shares”), of AutoNation, Inc. (the “Issuer”) are held by ESL Partners, L.P. (“Partners”).
*Shares are held by ESL Institutional Partners, L.P. (“Institutional”).
*Shares are held in an account established by the investment member of ESL Investors, L.L.C. (“Investors”).
*Shares are held by CBL Partners, L.P. (“CBL”).
*Shares are held by ESL Investment Management, L.P. (“ESLIM”).
*Shares are held by RBS Partners, L.P. (“RBS”).
*Shares are held by Edward S. Lampert.

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Corning (GLW). Open $24.70

Guy Adami thinks Biogen (BIIB) is a buy on its recent dip.Open $57.91

For the second day in a row Karen Finerman recommends shorting MBIA (MBI).Open $29.51

Pete Najarian prefers Energy Conversion Devices (ENER).Open $32.45

Thursday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow with Shrt Dow30 Proshares (DOG).Open $58.90 Close $58.64 LOSS

Guy Adami thinks Cisco (CSCO) is a buy. Open $28.80 Close $29.06 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers shorting MBIA (MBI).Open $31.92 Close $29.51 GAIN

Pete Najarian likes Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Open $67.70 Close $67.87 GAIN

Guy Adami= 54-42 = 58%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 58-38 = 64%
Pete Najarian= 43-39 = 54%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 35-29 = 54%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Vindicated

Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek’s name was NOT on Former Senator George Mitchell’s steroid list today as CNBC erroneously reported earlier….


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Thursday’s 52 Week Low’s


ZUMZ Zumiez Inc 23.99
ZLC Zale Corporation 17.02
WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corp 26.50
WMG Warner Music Group Corp 6.58
WM Washington Mutual Inc 14.94
SBUX Starbucks Corp 21.61
ODP Office Depot, Inc 14.38
MTB M & T Bk Corp 83.62
MSC Material Sciences Cor … 6.96
MRVL Marvell Technology Gr … 14.41
KEM KEMET Corp 5.46
JBLU Jetblue Awys Corp 6.04
JAS Jo-Ann Stores Inc 13.87
FTEK Fuel Tech Inc 18.31
FSCI Fisher Communications Inc 37.13
CTRN Citi Trends Inc 14.37
CTIC Cell Therapeutics Inc 2.14
CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc 5.03
AXP American Express Company 52.22
AVX AVX Corporation 13.69
AVTR Avatar Holdings Inc 38.60

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Say It Ain’t So Jason………

Varitek……. Steroids…..Shame….

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Retails Sales, Inflation & Jobs: Why Would the Fed Cut Again?

This news today had to put a crimp in the “fed will cut again” camp..

Retail sales increased by 1.2%, up from an an unrevised 0.2% in October. The estimate from economists was a 0.6% advance in November. They had been expecting consumer spending, and the economy as a whole, to slow sharply in the final months of 2007. Thursday’s figure show that is just is not happening.

Here is here it gets bad for those wanting another cut from the Fed.

The PPI jumped 3.2% in November, the biggest one-month rise since August 1973. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4%, matching the biggest increase in one year. This doubled expectations of a 1.7% rise in the headline index and 0.2% rise in the core. In the 12 months through November, wholesale prices rose 7.2%, the largest increase since November 1981. If we drill down into the production pipeline, we see proof that inflationary pressures are increasing. Prices of raw materials rose 8.7%, though excluding food and energy they fell 0.5%. The prices of intermediate goods rose 3.7% overall and were up 1% excluding food and energy.

Finally, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, consistent with the recent increases in monthly payrolls we have seen. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 7,000 to 333,000. Once again this was better than estimates that had expected no change from the previous week.

The four-week average of new claims, used to even out weekly volatility, fell by 2,000 to 338,750.

So, we have higher retail sales than expected, higher employment than expected and higher inflation that expected. Why would the Fed be inclined to cut again? If their charge is to balance growth and inflation, then currently the risk is too higher inflation.

The real problem here is that Wall St. just thinks things are far worse than they actually are. In all reality, things are not bad a t all. Sure housing sucks but unless you are actually selling a home, it had very little effect on you.

I mean the folks down the street are trying to sell their house (it is way overpriced), their success or failure in that venture has ZERO effect on my holiday spending plans. I am pretty sure the other 60 plus households in the development feel the same way.

do not fret though, as 1/1/2008 rolls around and we fund the Coverdales and IRA’s for the year, there will still be plenty or real cheap picks out there to choose from. My top choices will be Citigroup (C), Dow Chemical (DOW), Sherwin Williams (SHW), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Wachovia (WB).

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Thursday’s Links

Sprint, AMT, WSJ, Lizdon

– I have posted here countless times on Sprint’s customer service. A poll was done and guess what? Sprint was last…

– The Senate did another band-aid fix..

– Here comes the cavalry.

– Howard Lizdon makes sense when it comes to the Fed

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Ethanol Margins Steadily Increasing

For many ethanol producers pinch by the historically low margins in September, recent events are giving a huge boost to the industry now.

Citigroup’s (C) David Driscoll, probably the best out there when it comes to the ethanol industry issued a report Tuesday.

In it he said average ethanol margins rose 2 cents a gallon last week to 30 cents and have risen 26 cents over the past 10 weeks since bottoming at 4 cents a gallon back in late September. The to date mild winter weather has lead to natural gas price reductions from a settlement of more than $8.02 per million BTU’s on Nov. 26 to a settlement of $7.15 on Friday to $7.085 on Tuesday. Since most ethanol producers use natural gas to power plants, reductions here go right to the bottom line.

Demand has also held steady at higher than normal levels as ethanol supply for September, the last month numbers were available, increased modestly by three days to 26, well below the industry’s average historical days of inventory level of 32 days. This tells us that ethanol production currently is being fully blended into gasoline.

For ethanol producers like Verasun (VSE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), who have stopped expansion production, the large increase in margins ought to give boost to those plans again. For a large integrated producer like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), who surprised investors last quarter with dramatically improved results despite a tough operating environment, news like this ought to assure investors this quarter looks to be a very strong one also.

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Wachovia To Grow Earnings

Wachovia (WB) CEO Ken Thompson said something on Wednesday no other bank has stepped up to say yet.

At a Goldman Sachs conference in New York he said is confident that the bank’s dividend is safe and he is “comfortable” that his bank will “grow earnings” in 2008, but gave no specific forecast.

On the same day in a regulatory filing, the bank said securities backed by loans dropped in value in the past two months at a rate equal to the decline in the July-September period. At that time Wachovia took a $1.34 billion hit. In October they said the value had fallen by $1.1 billion and they now project a $240 million writedown for November to cover the difference. The assets being classes being written down include commercial mortgage, leveraged finance, consumer mortgage and structured credit products, including subprime residential mortgage backed securities (“RMBS”) and collateralized debt obligations having RMBS as collateral.

The bank also doubled the amount it expects to set aside to cover bad loans in the fourth quarter to $1 billion.

Here is where we can understand the sentiment of the market. The Fed’s action today injected liquidity into the markets and will lower LIBOR, reducing the non-performing loans in all these writedowns, Wachovia came out and said they will grow earning next year and the dividend is safe. Good news, right? No. The only thing the market is focused on is the write-downs. This is witnessed by Merrill Lynch downgrading Wachovia shares Wednesday morning to “Sell” from “Neutral.” The stock is trading down almost 3%.

Wachovia now trades at 9 times current earnings that will grow next year and yields 5.8%.

Thompson must be real confident considering the current bank CEO situation out there to say the things he said. If either the dividend gets cut OR earning do not grow, Thompson will most likely find his head on the chopping block. Operating under the assumption he is not actively seeking that event, one must conclude both events are “in the bag’ so to speak. That is not to say the the dividend will be increased or that earnings grow by more than a penny, it is to say that a major deterioration from here is doubtful.

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett said yesterday that he expected “major divergences” in financials results during the next year. With earnings declines expected across the sector, the fact that Wachovia will grow them, it should be one of the winners in the category.

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RI Supreme Court In Lead Paint Ruling

I was alerted to this by Jane Genova on Wednesday morning. It was a very nice way for Sherwin Williams shareholders to welcome the day.

The following is from Jane’s blog Law and More

“A victory for both the children of Rhode Island and the three lead-paint public nuisance defendants, the RI Supreme Court today upheld the 2002 Lead Hazard Mitigation Action.

That law puts the responsibility on the landlords to maintain their property as lead-safe. And that’s where the accountability is and should be, the lead paint defendants Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Millennium Holdings, and NL Industries (NL) have been arguing. They have also contended that “lead-safe” is the appropriate approach to preventing lead-poisoning of children. “Lead-safe” means that the lead paint is intact, therefore not producing chips or dust containing lead. The plaintiff, including in its recent abatement plan, insists that “lead-free” is the only way to ensure that the state’s children are rid of this hazard. “Lead-free” entails removing all the lead paint, a costly procedure.

Does this ruling by the RI Supreme Court bode well for when those Justices hear the appeal of the 2006 RI lead paint verdict by the defendants? After all, this decision aligns with what the defendants have been fighting for since their first lead paint public nuisance trial and throughout and after the second one. There’s more: In his opinion, the RI Supreme Court Chief Justice criticized the RI Superior Court Justice. So much for the supposed old-boys’ network in the RI court system.

Here is some background on this Act that the RI Supreme Court ruled as constitutional today. According to the Lead Hazard Mitigation Act, landlords are required to:

* Take a lead-hazard awareness course. This runs about three hours.
* Prove that their properties comply with RI Health Department standards. This is done by having their properties certified as lead-safe every two years or each time there is a new tenant.

As the law was written there were exemptions. Those appy to:

* Owner-occupied two- and three-unit properties
* Residences restricted to those 62 years of age or older
* Temporary housing
* Housing certified as lead-safe or lead-free.

It was these exemptions that brought this whole enchilada to the highest Court in the state. Landlords saw these as violations of their rights to equal protection as defined by the RI constitution. They filed a complaint through their lawyer Joseph Larisa Jr.

When the case was heard by Superior Court Judge Stephen J. Fortunato Jr., reports THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL writer Brandie M. Jefferson, that judge ruled it unconstitutional . However, his decision could not be enforced. That Judge recommended that the General Assembly review that Act.

Most importantly, how he handled that was criticized today by RI Supreme Court Chief Justice Frank J. Williams. Jefferson notes that Judge Fortunato’s ruling left the law in limbo. It was still on the books but unenforceable. On this Chief Justice Williams wrote, quotes Jefferson, “We pause to note our concern with the trial justice’s refusal to enter final judgment. This, coupled with the trial justice’s refusal to restrain the implementation of legislation that he found unconstitutional let the parties in legal limbo.”

What we lead-paint watchers pick up loud and clear is: The RI Supreme Court both overturned and criticized the decision of a RI Superior Court Judge. If that could happen with the Lead Hazard Mitigation Act, it could also happen in the Court’s review of the second RI lead paint public nuisance trial.

Just the possibility of this is the best holiday present for everyone who has worked so hard to right what we see as the injustices associated with RI Lead Paint Trial II.”

This is it, it is over. If RI law determines that “lead safe” is the best way o protest children, the forced removal of that paint by the lower court judge is now against RI law. Further, the justices place the responsibility on the property owners, where it should be, not the producers of the product.

Finally, some common sense in Rhode Island. It only took 3 years…..

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
MAXIMUS MMS KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Aggressive Buy
Genesis Microchip GNSS Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals ACAD JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Strong Buy
SAFECO SAF Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
BankAtlantic BBX Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Acergy ACGY Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Repsol SA REP Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight

DOWNGRADES
Akamai Tech AKAM Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Celgene CELG Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Western Alliance Bancorp WAL Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
Charles River CRL UBS Buy » Neutral
Cincinnati Bell CBB Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Flanders FLDR JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform
EDO Corp EDO Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Franklin Bank Corp FBTX Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Lukoil LUKOY Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
SAP AG SAP Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Hertz Global HTZ Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutra

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