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Wal-Mart’s China Bonanza

Wal-Mart (WMT), who has finally realized it international sales growth is crushing domestic operations said it expects to grow 30% annually in China, its most successful international operation to date.

In announcing the approval of its 100th store Monday, Terrence Cullen, vice-president of development for Wal-Mart in China, said “We intend to continue our aggressive, organic growth in China.”

Here is the real sweet number. Since 1996, the China expansion Wal-Mart has undertaken has cost them a whopping $230 million. That is it! If we are going to put that into perspective, Wal-Mart pays shareholders almost $700 million per quarter in dividends. What Wal-Mart receives from China for the money it has invested is essentially a gimme.

There has been speculation that Wal-Mart is at the mercy of the Chinese gov’t and that the growth there is precarious. Quite the contrary is true. Wal-Mart buys in excess of $18 billion annually from China, making it buy far the largest purchaser of good from the country. If the Chinese have proven anything, they have shown they will not cut off their nose to spite their faces.

Wal-Mart and the Chinese officials have a very mutually beneficial relationship that will undoubtedly grow stronger as time passes. Good news for shareholders…

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McDonald’s: All About Coffee

As McDonald’s continues to post quarter after quarter of impressive growth, one has to wonder just how long it will be before executives at Starbucks (SBUX)consider the competition“.

McDonald’s (MCD) announced Mo day that global comparable sales rose 8.2% for the month and 7.0% for YTD November. Systemwide sales for McDonald’s restaurants worldwide increased 16.3% in November, or 9.6% in constant currencies.

In the U.S., comparable sales increased 4.4% for the month as consumers continue to enjoy McDonald’s Premium Roast coffee and breakfast menu selections, compelling Dollar Menu options and convenient restaurant operating hours.

McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Jim Skinner said, “McDonald’s commitment to evolve the restaurant experience to achieve even greater customer relevance continues to deliver results. Again in November, each area of the world contributed to our strong top-line performance.”

People out there are indeed fearful of the economy. We can debate whether of not that fear is warranted all day but this simple fact is they are. When they feel that way the first thing that gets cut are the luxuries that are easily replaceable. Starbucks coffee fits the bill perfectly.

When you consider how many households have their own cappuccino machines or “K” cup coffee systems, a $5 plus beverage is going to be passed on. When you consider I can get one a McDonald’s for $2, or, make it myself for about 60 cents, the $5 purchase just will not be made. Judging from results at Starbucks recently, there are ton of folks out there that feel the same way.

Starbucks shares have seemingly bottomed at $23, down from near $40 earlier in the year. Seemingly is the key word. Should Starbucks not impress with results in the current quarter when people are gift giving and in a spending mood, the outlook is indeed dire and shares will fall further…

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Sears Holdings Files 13-d Regarding Restoration

There was a very interesting tidbit in the 13-D filed by Sears Holdings (SHLD) regarding its bid for Restoration Hardware (RSTO) with the SEC today.

Here it the filing:

“In June 2007, on behalf of Sears Holdings, the Chairman of Sears Holdings and another member of the Board of Directors of Sears Holdings approached a non-management director of the Issuer to inquire as to his views concerning a possible business combination or other strategic transaction involving the Issuer and Sears Holdings. This director advised Sears Holdings to contact the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer. Following this conversation, the Chairman of Sears Holdings spoke with the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer and discussed the potential benefits of a business or strategic combination between Sears Holdings and the Issuer. After that conversation, the Chairman of Sears Holdings spoke to the non-management director of the Issuer with whom he had previously spoken and this director suggested that the Chairman of Sears Holdings continue speaking with the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer. Shortly thereafter, the Chairman of Sears Holdings requested an opportunity to meet in person with the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer to discuss the benefits of a transaction involving the Issuer and Sears Holdings. Due to scheduling conflicts, the Chairman of Sears Holdings and the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer did not meet during the summer.

In early October, the Chairman of Sears Holdings, the President of Sears Holdings’ Lands’ End business and a non-management member of Sears Holdings’ Board of Directors had a meeting with the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer. Sears Holdings did not enter into a confidentiality agreement or receive non-public information about the Issuer or its business in connection with these discussions, and no price or terms of any transaction were solicited by the Issuer nor proposed by Sears Holdings. In late October, in a conversation with the Chairman of Sears Holdings, the Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer informed Sears Holdings for the first time that the Issuer was considering a potential management buyout transaction and that a Special Committee of the Board had been established. After being informed of this development, Sears Holdings sent a letter to Raymond C. Hemmig, chairman of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Issuer, proposing a transaction at $4.00 per Share (a 39% premium to the Shares’ closing price of $2.87 on the last trading day prior to Sears Holdings making its proposal) and informing him of Sears Holdings’ potential to increase the offer as a result of information gained from a due diligence process. Mr. Hemmig later responded by e-mail that the Special Committee was not prepared to have Sears Holdings engage with the Issuer’s management team and advisers in due diligence on the proposed terms and indicated that in order to have the opportunity to engage in due diligence Sears Holdings should revise its proposal to offer a substantially higher price.

On November 8, 2007, the Company announced it had entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Home Merger Agreement”) with Home Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, and Home Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Home Holdings, LLC.

On November 23, 2007, Sears Holdings sent a letter to the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Issuer (the “November 23 Letter”) providing the Special Committee, at its request, with a proposal to offer holders of Shares of the Issuer $6.75 per Share in cash via a tender offer, subject to the terms set forth in the November 23 Letter. The November 23 Letter also stated that Sears Holdings would contemplate entering into a merger agreement on terms substantially similar to the Home Merger Agreement, modified as necessary to accommodate a tender offer structure and with a lower, more reasonable break-up fee than contained in the Home Merger Agreement. A copy of the November 23 Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit 1 and incorporated by reference into this Item 4.

Subsequent to sending the November 23 Letter, representatives of Sears Holdings and the financial advisor for the Issuer and counsel to Sears Holdings and counsel to the Issuer and counsel to the Special Committee engaged in discussions about a confidentiality agreement and Sears Holdings’ proposal. On December 7, 2007, after extensive negotiations, Sears Holdings and the Issuer entered into a confidentiality agreement on terms permitted by the Home Merger Agreement (the “Confidentiality Agreement”). A copy of the Confidentiality Agreement is attached hereto as Exhibit 2 and incorporated by reference into this Item 4.

Subject to the terms of the Confidentiality Agreement, Sears Holdings intends to evaluate the Issuer and the desirability of confirming the proposal set forth in the November 23 Letter (or a proposal on substantially similar terms). Subject to the terms of the Confidentiality Agreement, Sears Holdings also intends to review its holdings of Shares on a continuing basis and in that connection expects to consider various factors including, without limitation, the current and anticipated future trading price levels of the Shares, the status of the transactions contemplated by the Home Merger Agreement, the financial condition, results of operations and prospects of the Issuer, tax considerations, any non-public information which it receives from the Issuer, conditions in the home furnishings industry and securities markets, general economic and industry conditions, other investment and business opportunities available to Sears Holdings, and other factors that Sears Holdings may deem relevant, and will in the future take such actions with respect to Sears Holdings investment in the Issuer as it deems appropriate. Such actions that Sears Holdings may take include, subject to the terms of the Confidentiality Agreement but otherwise without limitation: (a) announcing its intention or plan to undertake or otherwise undertaking an extraordinary corporate transaction such as a tender offer or exchange offer for some or all of the Shares or a merger, consolidation, other business combination or reorganization involving the Issuer; (b) increasing or decreasing its position in the Issuer through, among other things, the purchase or sale of Shares in open market or private transactions for cash or for other consideration; (c) seeking to acquire or influence control of the Issuer, including seeking representation on the board of the Issuer; (d) entering into derivative transactions, engaging in short selling of or any hedging or similar transactions with respect to the Shares; or (e) taking any other action similar to those listed above. Subject to the terms of the Confidentiality Agreement, any open market or privately negotiated purchases, sales, distributions or other transactions may be made at any time without further prior notice”.

The part that got me the most? “In early October, the Chairman of Sears Holdings, the President of Sears Holdings’ Lands’ End business”

Just yesterday I posted that my thesis for Lampert wanting Restoration was its mail order business. The success of that part of Restoration despite the current retail environment in the last quarter underscored its strength and the possibilities for it. I further stated that I thought a Lands End and Restoration combination was the likely reason for his interest.

Now we find out that in October Lampert had Lands End’s President accompany him to see Restoration’s CEO. It would appear as though Lampert was thinking along the same lines, a Restoration / Lands End combination.

The filing also states that Sears may at any time take any action it deems appropriate regarding the acquisition or disposition of shares in Restoration. Simply put, Lampert got the confidential information he wanted without giving up his ability to seek other channels to acquire more control of the company.

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Tueday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Nutrisystem NTRI Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
MGI Pharma MOGN Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
Cascade CAE Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
RSC Holdings RRR UBS Neutral » Buy
Nymagic NYM Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Dyncorp Intl DCP Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
Perficient PRFT Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Cornell Corr CRN Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Bankrate RATE Citigroup Hold » Buy
Dyncorp Intl DCP Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
ITT Educational ESI Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Air France KLM AKH UBS Neutral » Buy
Ryanair Hldgs RYAAY UBS Neutral » Buy
Terex TEX UBS Neutral » Buy
Beckman Coulter BEC Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Circuit City CC Soleil Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Rohm and Haas ROH KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy $68
Hemispherx Biopharma HEB Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Janco Partners Buy » Mkt Perform $7.10 » $6.35
STEC Inc STEC B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral $9.50
Amer Mort Accept AMC RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Learning Tree LTRE Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Veolia Environnement VE Brean Murray Buy » Hold
SGX Pharma SGXP JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Emerson EMR Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Dominion D Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Red Hat RHT Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
StatoilHydro STO Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Telkom SA TKG Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Amgen AMGN Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Forward Air FWRD Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Portugal Telecom PT Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Palm PALM UBS Neutral » Sell

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks

Pete Najarain would buy EMC (EMC). Open $19.52

Karen Finerman said she “believes in” Saks (SKS). Open $21.06

Guy Adami reiterated his buy on U.S. Bancorp (USB). Open $33.58

THQ (THQI) is a buy to Jeff Macke.Open $27.37

Monday’s Results
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53 Close $34.76 GAIN

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51 Close $55.60 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95 Close $30.11 GAIN

Guy Adami= 52-41 = 57%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 41-38 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 34-26 = 56%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Monday’s 52 Week Lows


TLF Tandy Leather Factory Inc 3.27
TIN Temple-Inland Inc 36.48
TGAL Tegal Corp 4.13
SPAR Spartan Motors Inc 7.95
SOLD Housevalues Inc 3.00
FNBN FNB Corp 12.01
FFBH First Federal Bancsha … 14.50
FDO Family Dollar Stores, Inc 20.00

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The Reason Lampert wants Restoration?

Perhaps this little nugget is the reason for Sears Holdings (SHLD) interest in Restoration (RSTO).

Let’s ignore the store traffic and start with the mail order division (think Lands End)..

Third quarter net revenues increased $16.6 million compared to the year ago period, primarily driven by growth in the Company’s Direct-to-Customer segment. Direct-to-Customer revenues were $97.2 million and accounted for 56% of total revenues, up from 36% of total revenues in the third quarter of last year. The increase reflects growth in catalog and page circulation, and a continuing shift in revenues from the Stores segment to the Direct-to-Customer segment resulting from management’s multi-channel merchandising and marketing strategies and operational changes implemented in the second quarter of 2007. Revenues in the Stores segment were $76.5 million in the third quarter of 2007.

So, Lampert is offering about $262 million for a company with more than $150 million in owned inventory, $1.7 million in cash, $8.5 million in receivables and a mail order division with profits of about $32 million a year that grew 71% over last year. If we take those numbers alone, Lampert will receive $192 million back for his purchase price almost immediately.

By merging Restorations back end operations with Land’s End, profitability at the segment will jump. One also has to consider the added benefits to both catalogues by cross selling merchandise in them. Perhaps a combined Land’s End / Restoration issue?

Of Monday’s results, Gary Friedman, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Weakening consumer spending and traffic levels continued to affect our business in the third quarter, particularly higher ticket durable categories. Revenue did not achieve our expectations, driving substantially all of our larger than anticipated operating loss in the quarter. While we are encouraged by some of the early holiday trends in our business, we remain cautious due to the macro economic environment, which has proven highly challenging for the home furnishings sector this year.”

The same song has been sung by all housing related retailers this fall like home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW) and Sears itself.

Lampert will end up getting Restoration for essentially nothing. Sound familiar? Is restoration a huge deal that will make a huge difference in the $53 billion in annual sales Sears generates? No. But Lampert is picking up a quality brand name at a song that will generate positive results and will add to the current brand base Lampert has .

True, Restoration’s results sucked and well, that is why Lampert can get it so cheap. It is called “value” investing for a reason.

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Monday’s Links

WSJ vs NYT, WSJ hires, Media, Ackman

– Murdoch has spent the past ten years watching the NY Times mock his Fox network. Now that he has the Wall St. Journal, I would bet a testicle he crushes them…..

– Step one? Bring in the dogs

– It would seem it took two years but the media now finally understands the lead paint issue.

– Of all these going public, this may just the the ONE I would take a serious look st.

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CompUSA: Bad News for Best Buy and Circuit City

It is one thing to have competition no one goes to, it is another to have people then rush to it when they give things away. This may put a dent in both Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City’s (CC) holidays.

In announcing the closing, CompUSA announced it will be offering “attractive bargains on computer and electronic products as part of store closing sales and its 103 retail stores will remain open through the holidays.

Earlier this year they closed over half of their U.S. retail stores in a bid to streamline operations and bolster margins at top-performing stores. Guess it did not work.

Long term this will benefit all electronics retailers like the one mentioned about and even Wal-Mart (WMT) and Sears Holdings (SHLD), for this holiday season though, it is not good news.

In order to rid itself of inventory, undoubtedly CompUSA will be selling merchandise below cost. It is a move unlikely to be replicated by other retailers and this will affect sales during the next 4 weeks in the 103 markets that have the CompUSA locations.

Will it break the holiday season for other retailers? No. It does have the definite possibility of making a good one average or an average one poor though. If anything good comes of we may get a pullback in one of the names as folks over react to the news and get a nice entry price for shares (except Circuit City).

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Retail Web Traffic: Still Wal-Mart’s Domain

Here are the stats from the week ending 12/1. I have eliminated the online only retailers. This is just bricks and clicks combos.

1. www.walmart.com (WMT) = 8.3%
2. www.target.com (TGT) =5.64%
3. www.bestbuy.com (BBY) = 3.88%
4. www.circuitcity.com (CC) =3.11%
5. www.toysrus.com =2.59%
6. www.jcpenney.com (JCP) =2.56%
7. www.sears.com (SHLD) =2.44%
8. www.kohls.com (KSS) =1.38%
9. www.macys.com (M) =1.33%
10. www.kmart.com (SHLD) =1.29%

The Sears / Kmart combination places it in a solid 4th just a click or two behind Best Buy. Wal-Mart still is crushing everyone else and this is the reason for the recent news we have seen. A casual look at the parking lots of both retailers in the area show a slight edge to Wal-Mart on most days.

The web traffic is the reason Wal-Mart investors are so optimistic ans Target ones are left wondering “what is going on”? I used the Wal-Mart “site to store” program and it could not have been any easier (not to mention the huge savings I had on the items we bought). The best I can tell from their site, Target has no such program.

Wal-Mart also has a huge advertising push for the program now and based on the results to date, one would be hard pressed to day it has not been an overwhelming success. Got to give it to the folks in Bentonville, they nailed it on this one.

A surprise is Circuit City. They are a constant top 5 site. If this Holiday season it not a success for them, it simply means they did not convert the eyes to buys and that it a pricing issue, pure and simple. Should that be the case, time for CEO Mr. Philip J. Schoonover to be asked to “pursue other opportunities”. The folks have been there, you need to sell them.

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommended buying SPDR (SPY). Open $150.94 Close $150.91 LOSS

Guy Adami liked Intel (INTC). Open $27.98 Close $27.73 LOSS

Tim Seymour preferred Stillwater Mining Company (SWC). Open $10.98 Close $10.58 LOSS

Pete Najarian said Apple (AAPL) is a buy. Open $189.95 Close $194.30 GAIN

Guy Adami= 51-41 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 40-38 = 51%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 33-26 = 55%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Oceanfreight OCNF Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Shaw Group SGR SMH Capital Sell » Neutral
Synopsys SNPS Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Kenexa KNXA Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Activision ATVI Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Align Tech ALGN Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
National Semi NSM JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Advance Auto AAP JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
AutoZone AZO JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Yingli Green Energy YGE Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
JC Penney JCP Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Sunpower SPWR Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Jabil Circuit JBL Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Cintas CTAS Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
Hecla Mining HL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
CIBC CM BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Olympic Steel ZEUS Longbow Buy » Neutral
Napster NAPS Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
American Express AXP Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Smith & Wesson SWHC Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Diodes DIOD Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Intersil ISIL Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lennar LEN Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Target TGT Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Claymont Steel PLTE CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Energy East EAS Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
McAfee MFE Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

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ValuePlays KIVA Project

We spend a lot of time talking about millionaires and billionaires and casually throwing hundred billions of dollars figure around like its coffee money. It is time to take some of that effort and contribute to folks who, for a couple hundred bucks, we can change a life.

You can donate here:





Here is how I am doing it:

– I have created a lender page at KIVA.org

– All donations may be private or public. All public donations will be recognized to the extent the contributor wants. A post will be given any links to blogs or sites will also be given should the contributor want.

– Updates on loans given will be done here and can be verified on the lender page

– ValuePlays maintains sole discretion as to who receives a loan although any and all ideas are welcome.

– Correspondence from loan receivers will be shared with readers.

– By donating to our KIVA project, you acknowledge you are donating free of any conditions or expectation of return of funds. We are trying to change many lives here, not act as a short term lender.

– A full accounting of donations and loans may be found here

– Should you wish to do this all yourself, you may create your own lender page at KIVA.org

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This Weeks Dividend Hikes

Nucor Corp-(NUE) = 172%
Stryker Corp-(SYK)= 50.0%
Range Resources Corp-(RRC) = 33%
Dun & Bradstreet-(DNB) = 20%
Ecolab Inc-(ECL)=13.0%

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This Week’s Insider Buys


Pep Boys Manny Moe & Jack (PBY)= $7,420,351
Central Garden & Pet Co (CENT) = $5,159,017
Patriot Coal Corp (PCX )= $3,292,110
Susser Holdings Corp (SUSS) = $2,926,300
Scientific Games Corp (SGMS )= $2,296,028
Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) = $2,189,058
First Advantage Bancorp (FABK) = $2,025,206
Orange 21 Inc (ORNG) = $1,848,582
Dillard S Inc (DDS)= $1,751,940

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