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Subs $$: More Market Validation

I like that the smoothie market keeps getting bigger. The larger the market, the larger the piece of it for JMBA. Those who fear BK or MCD will “take sales away” from JMBA IMO miss the point.

Think of it like a pie. The reason those large player are entering the market is because they see the pie itself getting larger and want their share of it. How many coffee chains do we have that are very successful? Burger chains? Think about it. What is happening is the entry of the larger players is making smoothies a more prominent beverage for people to want to drink. When smoothies become “top of mind” for consumers, the market explodes. Then we need to look at quality and that is where JMBA sits, at the top of that. That will aid in the selling of franchises and draw traffic to those existing ones.

This scenario is preferable to JMBA trying to both grow a business and create smoothie acceptance among consumers, which is what they have been doing for the past few years. Let everyone’s advertising create market awareness, then JMBA need only differentiate itself from the ordinary players within that market.

From burgerbusiness.com

Having watched rival McDonald’s U.S. sales heat up this summer thanks in part to smoothies and frappés while its own sales struggled to escape red ink, Burger King is looking to join the fast-beverage trend by testing a Strawberry Banana Smoothie of its own.

In one mid-Atlantic test market, Burger King operators confirm that the chain is testing a Strawberry Banana Smoothie priced at $1.89 for a small; $2.79 for medium (no large). This starts below the $2.29/$2.79/$3.29 pricing for Real Fruit Smoothies introduced by McDonald’s in July. With soft drinks discounted to $1 for any size, smoothies and frappés offer significant profit potential. And because the smoothies contain fruit, they can help blunt criticisms that quick-service fare is too focused on high-fat items.

Additionally, Burger King in most markets has added Seattle’s Best iced coffees in flavors that include vanilla, mocha, caramel and fudge.

McDonald’s credited its McCafé beverages with contributing to a 5.7% increase in U.S. same-store sales for July, its strongest monthly growth since January 2009. In August, its comp sales were up 4.6%. By comparison, Burger King reported a 1.5% decline for U.S./Canada comp sales for the quarter ended June 30 and a 3.9% decline for its fiscal year, which ended then. According to Dow Jones, the success of McDonald’s smoothies also has helped others in the category, including Panera Bread, which reported a 21% increase in sale of frozen drinks during its latest quarter.

In a turnabout, Emeryville, Calif.-based Jamba Juice, one of the largest smoothie chains, this month launched an expanded breakfast platform in its stores. Jamba’s menu includes hot oatmeal, which McDonald’s already has said it will roll out early next year. Jamba this year poked fun at burger chains’ move into the smoothie category with a mock commercial (watch it here) claiming that Jamba is adding a “Cheeseburger Chill Smoothie.”

Jamba and others have a growing market niche to defend. According to data from Mintel, U.S. smoothie-shop sales rose from $875 million in 2005 to an estimated $1.136 billion last year. These figures include only smoothie-specialty chains such as Jamba Juice, Orange Julius and Smoothie King, so the total market is larger. But the demographics are interesting. More than half (53%) of adult respondents for Mintel’s December 2009 study say they purchased a smoothie in the past three months. Those between the ages of 18 and 24 traditionally have been the heaviest users but the 18-34-year-old market has been growing rapidly. This is prime QSR territory. Smoothie drinkers are more likely to say they drink them because the beverages are refreshing (30%) than because they’re “good for me” (27%).

McDonald’s wasn’t the QSR smoothie pioneer. Jack in the Box added Strawberry Banana, Mango and Orange Sunrise Real Fruit Smoothies to its menu in April 2008. Sonic has had its Tropical, Strawberry and Strawberry Banana smoothies on its menu for some time. Dunkin’ Donuts has has smoothies since 2006. Burger King, Wendy’s, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. have been among the smoothie holdouts.

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Subs $$: Obama Tax Proposal Would Materially Aid A Holding

This could be huge given what is happening with it..

HT Reader Nicholas

The News:

President Barack Obama’s proposal to provide immediate deductions for the full cost of new equipment will encourage companies to game the system just to get the tax benefits, tax experts said.

In a speech today in Cleveland, Obama will propose a plan to let companies, through the end of 2011, deduct the full cost of capital investments in the year the expenditures are made, instead of writing off the expenditure over periods of as many as 20 years, White House officials said.

That accelerated write-off, combined with existing deductions for loan interest, would create an opportunity that may prompt companies to borrow money for plants, machinery and equipment just to get the tax benefits, said Ed Kleinbard, a former staff director for Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation.

“It’s an invitation to arbitrage,” said Kleinbard, who now teaches tax law at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. “You’re putting businesses in the same economic position as if you were inviting them to borrow money to buy tax-exempt bonds.”

Obama’s proposal, which requires congressional approval, is designed to encourage companies to boost the economy by spending some of the record $1.84 trillion in cash they had on hand at the end of the first quarter, up from $1.43 trillion at the start of 2009.

Who will this help? REXI

Remember this from the 1st write up?

LEAF Financial Corporation

LEAF Financial Corporation is a commercial finance and equipment leasing company headquartered in Philadelphia, PA. LEAF’s business model is to originate small ticket equipment leases by reaching the small to mid-sized business market by forming strategic marketing alliances and other program relationships with equipment vendors, commercial banks and other financial institutions. After origination, LEAF manages the leases for its own account, institutions, and individual investors through investment partnerships and other investment vehicles. As of December 31, 2009, LEAF managed $1.2 billion of assets under management.

LEAF is a commercial finance operation. IF businesses do the above if this tax change is passed (IMO they will) then LEAF, and the value of it will be a HUGE beneficiary. Given the circumstances around REXI now, this is no small matter….

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