ValuePlays

This piggybacks on a post here last week that said the threat of damaging inflation is being under appreciated by those making policy today.

I don’t see how we just put the genie back in this bottle…..

From the FT

The unprecedented explosion of the US fiscal deficit raises the spectre of high future inflation. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the president’s budget implies a fiscal deficit of 13 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009 and nearly 10 per cent in 2010. Even with a strong economic recovery, the ratio of government debt to GDP would double to 80 per cent in the next 10 years.

There is ample historic evidence of the link between fiscal profligacy and subsequent inflation. But historic evidence and economic analysis also show that the inflationary effects can be avoided if the fiscal deficits are not accompanied by a sustained increase in the money supply and, more generally, by an easing of monetary conditions.

The deep recession means that there is no immediate risk of inflation. The aggregate demand for labour and goods and services is much less than the potential supply. But when the economy begins to recover, the Fed will have to reduce the excessive stock of money and, more critically, prevent the large volume of excess reserves in the banks from causing an inflationary explosion of money and credit.

This will not be an easy task since the commercial banks may not want to exchange their reserves for the mountain of private debt that the Fed is holding and the Fed lacks enough Treasury bonds with which to conduct ordinary open market operations. It is surprising that the long-term interest rates do not yet reflect the resulting risk of future inflation.

Jim Grant also had thoughts on the subject here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Banks, Horses, FAZ & FAS, Battery

– Of course they failed, if they hadn’t the results would be out already

– This is odd…

– I thought it was the other way around?

– Could mean something

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Oil has “peaked” (peak oil pun intended) my interest again, especially after the fall today and the way it has risen with an irrational market.

Today T. Boone Pickens said:

Texas oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens on Monday reiterated his prediction that crude oil prices would hit $75 a barrel this year as producers scale back production. Pickens said about OPEC producers: “They told you they want $75 by the end of the year, I would count on that, I believe them.”

OPEC has scaled back output to help support crude prices, which have dropped from record highs over $147 a barrel in July to around $47 a barrel on Monday.

“I think you are going to clean up the stocks because the people who have the oil are cutting supply,” Pickens said at an alternative fuels and vehicles conference, referring to the nearly 19-year high on U.S. inventories of crude oil reported last week by the federal government. The United States would likely burn through its supply overhang in three months, he told reporters.

Now, I know Boone was also very wrong last year on oil and it cost him dearly as he was caught long with options as prices cratered. I also know he has made billions in oil so he clearly has been right far more than he has been long.

For all issues oil I tend to turn to Gregor.us for information. He recently posted the following information:

World oil production for the past 4 years has remained stagnant at essentially 73.5 mbpd. If the production of any item has not risen over a 4 year span despite demand for it continuing to do so and a historical price spike, it isn’t ever going to and thus the long term price trend must be up. Period

That information followed this from Gregor:

Each barrel of oil contains about 5.8 million BTUs. Each American uses about 25 barrels of oil every year. Considering that it takes an adult one hour of work to generate about 300-500 of their own BTUs, our lives are clearly transformed each day by a “helper” known as oil. That oil is dirt cheap even at 100.00 dollars a barrel is pretty obvious.

But when oil was trading at 35.00 earlier this Winter, the price barely reflected the global average costs of extraction and transport. This average cost level often appears to some as a complex issue, because oil comes out of the ground so cheaply in the Middle East, and more expensively elsewhere. But it’s frankly not that complicated. The journey to 35.00 dollar oil was part of a supply crash that caused voluntary cuts in OPEC, and involuntary cuts in non-OPEC production. When the world offers 35.00 dollars for a barrel of oil, that is simply not enough value-in-exchange to keep global oil production at a steady level. Let alone growing.

Because I regard 35.00 as the level where oil is essentially free–the level where the supply chain recoups its costs and then hands you 5.8 million BTUs of black stuff as a free stub–it’s now appropriate to mark the oil price from that starting point. Should there be a new dislocation in the purchasing power of the USDollar, this could change my 35.00 dollar level. Probably to high side. Until then, you should generally view the spread between 35.00 and the trading price as the price of oil.

The price of oil has no place to go but up, long term. The math is pretty simple, we will have stagnant production and increasing demand, that means higher prices. That being said, over the short to mid term, it can drop, significantly especially in our current manic markets (witness today’s 7% fall) .

I think oil is something I have to own again. I first owned it from Jan 2007 to May 2008 through USO and it was a spectacular play. The last time I did it was Dec. 2008 to March 2009 and while it was again nicely profitable (I averaged down), using DXO (the 2X monthly price change ETF) was stressful for me and caused too much anxiety for a trade destined to be profitable.

With all that being, I expect the current general market rally to subside and fall and when it does, take current $48 oil prices down with it. For a long term play, I will use USO again as a vehicle to hold oil for a year or two and then use DXO to play the occasional dips as a far shorter term play. Holding the 2x or 3X ETf’s long term is a losing game in anything but a spiking market.

What price? I think we could see oil near $40 again. At or near those levels would have me be a buyer again of USO this time.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

YouTube, HOPE, Hate, GE

– Now watch TV shows on it

– $300 billion program saves 1 home

– It is a good thing there is no hate from the left

– CNBC should be “pro-business”. Unfortunately that sounds today like “anti-Obama”. Did execs tell folks to tone it down?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Frontline does its usual fantastic job…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

The folks at Leucadia (LUK) have a fantastic track record despite the train wreck that was 2008. The types of investments they make are very unique and they take major positions in all of them. They have a very eclectic mix of assets.

The section I paid closest attnetion to was the one on AmeriCredit (ACF)

As of December 31, 2008, we acquired approximately 25% of the outstanding common shares of AmeriCredit Corp., a company listed on the NYSE (symbol: ACF) for aggregate cash consideration of $405.3 million. ACF is an independent auto finance company that is in the business of purchasing and servicing automobile sales finance contracts, historically for consumers who are typically unable to obtain financing; this segment of the business is known as subprime. At December 31, 2008, our investment in ACF is classified as an investment in an Associated Company and is carried at fair market value of $249.9 million.

Years ago we owned a similar business and as a result carefully followed ACF. We observed that their large volume and efficient processing and underwriting abilities made them a fierce competitor. We also observed that when a recession hit ACF went through a period of poor results, but when a recovery began they were able to make very large profits by being able to select more credit worthy customers and to charge more for loans.

Much of the above remains true; however, we began to buy the stock too soon and paid too much. The recession has been much harder and much deeper than we anticipated, though ACF is succeeding in acquiring more credit worthy customers and is able to charge higher rates. The fly in the ointment has been that it has been almost impossible to secure additional funding to make loans. Securitizations, which were the lifeblood of their financing, are in rigor mortis. The Federal Reserve has announced a program to restart consumer lending known as TALF, but as yet ACF has not been able to access it. Perhaps that will change. ACF has adequate financing to operate at a much reduced volume and is committed to preserving its net worth of $15.03 per share. We have a high regard for its management.

Regarding the current state and when it will end:

Out of prudence we have a pessimistic view as to when this recession will end. To think otherwise would be to gamble about the beginnings of good times whereas by imagining a bleak future we will most likely survive for the good times to arrive.

Leucadia 2008 Shareholder Letter

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Disclosure: The video maker is from DeepCapture.com . With that being said, there was some really funky stuff going on before Bear collapsed..

Hedge Funds and the Global Economic Meltdown from Judd Bagley on Vimeo.

I can’t get enough of this guy…Oh….listen to what he says and look forward 3 years

National Health Care?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

For anyone who doubted CNN’s hypocrisy

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Please take the weekend to read this. It is one of the more interesting pieces I have run across in a while. Hat tip to 1440 Wall St. for finding it

Martin Armstrong (October, 2008) Its Just Time [77p.]

Disclosure (“none” means no position):