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Dow Chemical Receives Option to Extend Loans: Some Thoughts

Dow Chemical (DOW) and Rohm & Haas (ROH) have confirmed they are back at the bargaining table. To accentuate the “a deal is close” scenario, Dow announced in an 8K filing that they have renegotiated their loans with the syndicate and the key point is that the loan can be extended for an additional year under certain conditions.

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From the 8K

On September 8, 2008, The Dow Chemical Company (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into a Term Loan Agreement (the “Original Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent for the lenders, in order to partially finance the acquisition by the Company (the “Acquisition”) of Rohm and Haas Company (the “Target”), to retire certain debt of the Target and to pay related costs and expenses. On March 5, 2009, the parties to the Original Agreement entered into a First Amendment to Term Loan Agreement (the “First Amendment”) in order to amend the Original Agreement (as so amended, the “Loan Agreement”).

Under the Loan Agreement, the lenders have committed to lend to the Company an aggregate principal amount that will not exceed the sum of each of their commitments, the total amount of which was reduced by $500,000,000 to $12,500,000,000 pursuant to the First Amendment, in a single term borrowing on the date of the closing of the Acquisition. The Loan Agreement will mature on the earlier of (a) the first anniversary of the closing date and (b) April 14, 2010; provided, however, that the original maturity date of the Loan Agreement may be extended to the date occurring one year following the original maturity date, at the option of the Company, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, including (i) the absence, since December 31, 2008, of a material adverse change in the financial position or operations of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries, considered as a whole (except for the Acquisition and the financing thereof and except for any changes disclosed in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008; provided that any changes or developments relating to matters so disclosed (and the effects thereof) that arise after December 31, 2008 may be taken into account in determining whether a material adverse change has occurred), (ii) compliance with the total leverage ratio covenant described below as of the original maturity date, if such covenant is applicable on such date, (iii) the reduction of the aggregate principal amount of the loans under the Loan Agreement to $8,000,000,000 or less, and (iv) the payment of an extension fee equal to 2% of the aggregate principal amount of the outstanding loans after giving effect to the extension.

The Loan Agreement permits loans bearing interest at a rate per annum equal to either the prime rate or LIBOR plus, in each case, a margin that varies based on the Company’s credit rating (the “Applicable Margin”); provided, however, that if the original maturity date of the Loan Agreement is extended as described in the preceding paragraph, then the Applicable Margin shall increase, as set forth in the Loan Agreement, on the date of extension, on the 90th day following such date and on each successive 90th day thereafter.

The Company has agreed to pay to the lenders a structuring fee equal to 1.25% of the aggregate amount of the lenders’ commitments. Additionally, under the Loan Agreement, the Company is obligated from time to time to pay certain duration fees to the lenders, as set forth in the Loan Agreement. Higher rates will apply to certain of these fees (i) unless, on or prior to the 90th day following the date of the closing of the Acquisition, the Company consummates one or more sales of certain equity interests or equity-linked securities for which it receives aggregate gross cash proceeds of at least $1,500,000,000 (calculated, in the case of equity-linked securities, based on the amount of “equity credit” accorded thereto by certain rating agencies) (a “New Equity Issuance”) or (ii) if a New Equity Issuance does occur on or prior to such 90th day following the date of the closing of the Acquisition, but the outstanding indebtedness under the Loan Agreement has not been reduced to the extent specified under the Loan Agreement.

I would still be very surprised if this went to trial. The benefit of the deal to the 3 principle shareholders of Rohm and Haas will not, under any circumstances win out over the potential job losses in this economy a forced merger would likely cause.

That is why Rohm is back at the table. Now the key is the loan extension. Dow can extend the $12.5 billion loan an additional year provided the keep their credit rating investment grade. Forcing the merger now under the original terms would void that. Also, Dow has cut the dividend and said it will raise another $3 billion through debt sales. In short they have taken away any argument Rohm has claiming Dow has not sought alternative avenues in which to complete the deal. They clearly have.

Yes I know Rohm has an “iron clad” agreement. But, in a Delaware Court the Judge decides what is “equitable” or “fair” for both parties. He is required to find a solution that is “best for all parties”, employees included. He has already told Dow and Rohm to “find a business solution” more than once. That translates to: “Dow, you are going to do this deal” and “Rohm, it won’t be now or under the original terms”.

This is why Rohm has decided to talk, even they now realize the outcome they face in court in far less favorable than it was a month ago.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

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How Violent Could A Rally Be?

Look at the following charts. The amount of cash sitting and waiting for a home is staggering. When it decides to flow into equities, the upside could be like nothing we have ever seen.

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What makes me think that? Well, the downside we have just seen is a once in a generation event (at least history tells us these are events that happen about every 90-100 years). We also have not seen cash levels this high in a generation.

Now when does this happen? Hell, I don’t know and anyone who tells you they do is full of it. But, what this does tell us is that the market is becoming a coiled spring. It is pulled back about as far as it can go and the cash buildup is the building tension.

The billion dollar question is how long can it stay pulled tight before it snaps back (the big rally). A month, 6 months , a year? If I had to guess (by the way, anyone doing something like this is guessing) I would say at least 6 months but less than a year….again, just a guess but we are getting to levels in certain equities that imply obliteration. That just is not going to happen to whole swaths of the economy…

Now do not get me wrong. I am not saying that everything is great and the economy is in perfect shape. Far from it and it will be so for years. What I am saying is equities are being priced as if -6% GDP is the given for the whole year and into next. Even if we go to just 0% growth in say Q3 or Q4, that is a huge improvement and will call for a recalculation of equities, fast.

We are at the point where the news flow is bad everyday. A couple of good weeks for unemployment, GDP, retails sales etc. could cause the negativity to turn. Caveat: Ignore any good news from housing. We need months in a row of good news before anything here matters. The month to month variations are so extreme right now in part because of new constant monthly government “rescue” programs that until there is a clear trend in housing, a monthly number has ZERO meaning.

It may not be Mardi Gras in the market for a while but it certainly will not be a funeral for eternity either..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Lack of Clarity Into Selling Causing Fear

“Davidson” makes a great point here. Things are getting a bit overdone here and the “who is selling and why” questions are the cause.

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Todd,

The current selling is pushing the SP500 down to 1xBV (~550). This occurred in 1974 and 1982 when the Wicksell Rate was ~14%(3.2% Real US GDP + 11% core inflation) and represented realistic pricing of the earnings yield for the SP500. Today, we are priced at ~10% on reduced ttm SP500 earnings in an environment of a 5.4% Wicksell Rate. This is equivalent to a Real Rate of Return for SP500 of 7.5%(10%-2.4%). This figure is at a historically high level for an inflation adjusted return back through the 1940’s.

To throw out basic financial reasoning and pricing that has been in place for ~70 years as we have done today, means that some one with little discipline is selling portfolios wholesale. I suspect foreign sellers who have used too much leverage are now delevering. Our markets have no transparency to this and are trying to make sense of something for which we lack adequate information. We are trying to garner information from price movements and making many, many wrong assumptions about risk that is not likely present. GE (GE) is a prime example.

GE’s Sherin noted that $35mil of trades over 2 days caused the fear that forced GE to lose $21bil market cap this week. GE has taken an extraordinary step to open up the books later this month to show all that they do not have the issues rumored in the market. But, note that there is great leverage in the CDS market when $35 mil can be levered into a $21bil move. That is a 600 multiplier.

I believe that GE’s Immelt is an extraordinary astute and honest manager. The insider buying in this company is so high at this time that the term “of historical proportions” does not express the true meaning. I was once a GE insider and I know the culture. It is much, much better now than when under Welch and in sound hands in my opinion.

I think we are seeing much selling from sources not transparent to us and attributing this to some one knowing more than is widely available. This is the “Boogy Man in the dark room” syndrome. If we had a benchmark which is not susceptible to emotional pricing, then we could fairly compare returns on all assets and then discount for financial risk rather than be in this overblown panic. I propose the Wicksell Rate which is based on longer trending economic fundamentals and not subject to emotional volatility.

At the current level the SP500 provides extraordinary returns. I think we are seeing liquidation by foreign companies that took cash on the books and traded it in our markets to boost earnings. This occurred during the “Japanese Bubble” and was known to have been going on with the recent boom. It is my belief that these corporate treasurers are panicking and selling to recover much needed cash.

I would be buying with cash in both fists if I were not already in. Perhaps the world should step back from the precipice and see the current activity as crazy and go in the opposite direction.

I have sent you a chart via another email of the Percentage of MM Funds vs. MM Funds and Corp Equities. The panic is clear.

“Davidson”

Here is the chart:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE

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AutoNation’s Mike Jackson Talks About The Industry

Bottom line, we are at depression levels for new car sales and Jackson still has his company profitable with strong cash flows. I have hammered this point here before and will do so again. The market share gains AutoNation (AN) is achieving in this environment as thousands of rival dealerships have closed the past two years assure a strong recovery for the company.


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Jacskon: “At $2 a gallon gas, people are not buying “green” vehicles and the migration back to big cars and SUV’s is already underway”


Jackson: If you want to sell “green” vehicles, you need to place a higher floor under gasoline prices.Let’s also not forget nearly 60% of the share are held by two people, Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert and Microsoft (MSFT) Founder Bill Gates. Auto demand does not disappear, it wanes and surges. While folks today will hold into their vehicles a little longer and repair them (witness recent sales at AutoZone (AZO))eventually they need to be replaced. Jackson and his company will be a much larger player in that field when it does happen.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, SHLD, none



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Amazon’s Bezos: Don’t Bet Against him

Now, I’m not going to sit here and say that Amazon (AMZN) is a “valueplay” by any means. I am going to say Bezos is a one of a kind entrepreneur who has cost a lot of folks who bet against him a lot of money. He just keeps refreshing his company and continues to innovate.

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Friday’s Links

Oil, Onion, Value Investors, Israel

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– A great post. what is happening to supply is very scary

– FUNNY

Congressman Offers Preemptive Apology For Extramarital Affair

Don’t fret

– Someone tell Hillary she can’t play both sides here
Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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GE CFO Addresses Rumors

CFO Keith Sherin had some very interesting things to say..

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Now, before we start remember we have a GE employee interviewing his employer.

Here is a follow up to it…

What to think? First, GE is not going under. BUT, that also does not mean that an investment in it today might not fall another 50% or more in the coming months. Back in January I did a post in which I quoted a trader saying GE could go to “$7 or $8” a share. When it hit people said he was crazy…turns out with shares at %6 and change, he was too optimistic.

We also do not know if GE in its present form will be the same GE in 6 months. It was just a months ago management said the dividend was safe and then cut it 70% spurring a lawsuit from investors who bought shares based on that statement. The suit does have merit and bear a very close watch. Cutting the dividend so soon after the public support for it is a problem. We are not talking 6 months later, we are talking 10 business days.

The bottom line in GE will make it through this…..eventually… I just think buyers are likely to get a far better price shortly.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE

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The Polarization of Retail

There is rapidly becomes three classes of retail. The high end (specialty) that will be hit or miss, the middle that will suffer and Wal-Mart (WMT) that will prosper.

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Specialty and high end retailer with either crater like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) or Tiffant (TIF) or have same store sales that drop dramatically but due to a 50% store count increase hold profits flat like True Religion (TRLG). This area due to the smaller size of the participants will produce wildly erratic results.

In the middle, Sears Holdings (SHLD), Target (TGT), Macy’s (M) and JC Penny (JCP) among other are experiencing large declines in same store sales (high single to double digit falls). These retailers are viewed currently as essentially different versions of each other and in a poor climate, share the same fate to slightly differing degrees. Now, their individual eventual fates will be the results of managements stewardship of finances but as far as sales go, they are in the same boat. Those with the strongest balance sheets will survive and be stronger at the end.

Don’t be surprised if Macy’s files Chapter 11 this year. Aside from falling sales, the company has $1.3 billion in cash, a $3 billion market cap and over $9 billion in debt…these numbers cannot hold. Right now the interest expense ($560 million) on that debt is over 50% of last year’s operating income. One has to expect income to fall more this year…the bad news is the debt interest won’t.

Then there is Wal-Mart:
Wal-Mart Stores reported a strong surge in February sales Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations, citing falling gas prices for helping boost its discount customers’ shopping budgets.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), the world’s largest retailer, said same-store sales, or sales at its stores open at least a year, jumped 5.1% last month. That was more than double analysts’ estimates for a 2.4% increase, according to sales tracker Thomson Reuters.

Wal-Mart last reported a same-store sales gain over 5% in June 2008, when its sales increased 5.8% on the back of robust back-to-school merchandise sales. The retailer said same-store sales at its Wal-Mart stores rose 5% and increased a stronger 5.9% at its Sam’s Club warehouse clubs. Net sales for the month rose 2.8% to $30 billion.

“We exceeded our own expectations for the period,” Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman of Wal-Mart Stores said in a statement. “We believe falling gas prices significantly boosted household disposable income in February and therefore allowed for both more trips and more spending towards discretionary categories.”

Wal-Mart is the clear winner. Just drive through your town. Where I live the Wal-Mart and the Target are across the street from each other. Look at the parking lots. I can pull up to the door at Target. At Wal-Mart? I bundle up for the long walk to the door.

Retail will turn, though not likely until the fall at the earliest. There will be more casualties and that is perversely good. We need to weeding out. Until then, Wal-Mart is the winner and the rest will fight for survival…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, SHLD

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Thursday’s Links

RIMM, The TAP, Blockbuster,Satellite to desktop

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– Should apps be free or not?

– Spinal Tap will live forever

– “Hey, we are not going out of business, we just suck”

– A neat idea
Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group Leads in Inflows

Having a stunning track record is a very good thing in bad times…

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Bloomberg Reports:

Baupost Group LLC, a Boston-based hedge fund run by Seth Klarman, gained the most assets in 2008, with money under management rising 49 percent to $16.8 billion, according to the magazine.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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General Growth’s Offer Provides More Asset Value Clarity $$

This situation is getting really fun to watch…It also gives us more clarity into the value of General Growth Properties’ (GGP) assets.

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Bloomberg Reported Yesterday:

General Growth Properties Inc.,(NYSE:GGP) the mall owner at risk of bankruptcy, received offers of almost $400 million for properties including Boston’s Faneuil Hall and New York’s South Street Seaport, according to a person familiar with the matter.

General Growth, the No. 2 U.S. shopping-mall owner, put the two properties and Harborplace & the Gallery in Baltimore up for sale in December. More than 10 offers were received, including offers for the entire portfolio and for individual properties, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the sales process isn’t public.

So, in 2004 GGP acquired the Rouse Company, who owned the above properties. It included a total of 40 million sq. feet of retail space plus another 9 million of land for $11.3 billion.

From the press release:

The Rouse Company acquisition adds 37 regional shopping malls, four community centers, and six mixed-use projects totaling 40 million square feet to General Growth’s portfolio of owned shopping centers. There is also a portfolio of office, industrial and other commercial properties totaling approximately 9 million square feet and considerable undeveloped land in some of the most successful master planned communities in the country, such as Summerlin, Nevada, Columbia, Maryland and The Woodlands outside Houston.

If we look at it, GGP paid $11.3 billion for 49 million square feet or $230 per square foot. Yet, if the numbers in the Bloomberg article are accurate (no reason to assume otherwise) they are selling just over 1 million square feet of it for $400 million or $389 a square foot.

Remember GGP carries all real estate on it books at cost. This potential transaction gives us more confidence that the $28 billion asset value on the books of GGP is far below the actual value. With $27 billion of debt, there is plenty of value left for shareholders.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGP

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Graham & Doddsville Newsletter, CBS

This is always great stuff….Fairholme’s (FAIRX) Bruce Berkowitz is featured

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Graham & Doddville Newsletter

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Academic Work columbia business sc

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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GE Letter to Investors $$

GE (GE) sent the following note to the investment community today addressing rumors and concerns in the market. Here is the thing, because of recent erroneous statements by the company and management, few will put much faith in this.

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GE sent out this investor update:

“To the Investment Community:

Recently claims have been made that GE will be required to raise new capital near term. This is pure speculation, is inaccurate and is not based on any input from our company.

GE has acted aggressively during the current global economic crisis to strengthen our capital base and significantly increase sources of liquidity at GE Capital.

GE has a balanced portfolio of businesses and broadly diversified assets in terms of class, customer and geographic distribution. We are well positioned to weather this downturn.

Below are facts that address this recent speculation directly:

– GE has a stronger capital position with ample liquidity

– With the 1st quarter $9.5 billion capital contribution, GE will have contributed $15 billion of capital into GECS over the last 6 months. GECS will have $63 billion of total equity, $34 billion of tangible equity and $36 billion of cash.

– As a result, GECS ratio of tangible common equity to tangible assets is 5.3%, which compares very favorably to other financial service institutions.

– Reducing the GE dividend in 2H ’09 will result in $4.4 billion in incremental cash in the second half of 2009 and about $9 billion annually.

– As committed in December, we have further reduced our commercial paper to $60 billion and have completed 71% of our ‘09 long term debt issuances.

– We have de-levered our balance sheet. Our debt/equity ratio will decrease from 8 to 1 to 6 to 1 (including hybrid debt).

– We have ~$70 billion of remaining capacity under the TLGP and ~$98 billion of access to the CPFF if necessary.

Currently, we have no plans to raise additional equity. In the unexpected event that GE Capital requires additional equity, we have a number of options to satisfy that need without seeking external capital.

We have stressed our financial service portfolios and do not see the need to raise additional capital. We plan to present results of these tests at our upcoming earnings webcast to further demonstrate the quality of our portfolio and ability to absorb potential losses in this difficult environment. Over the last several months we have significantly increased disclosure regarding our financial services businesses. We are committed to continue to enhance disclosure and transparency for our investors in the future.

We know these are challenging times, please be assured that we are taking the steps to ensure we keep GE safe and secure during this tough economic environment.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE

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Wednesday’s Links

Blackberry v Apple, Defamation, Foreclosures, Starbucks

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– This is good

– Comments on blogs

– It is impossible for this plan NOT to reward cheaters, thus it will fail

– This is two years too late
Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Lampert’s "Bad Investment" Up 70% In 6 Months and Other Thoughts $$

Remember last fall when AutoZone (AZO) fell under $100 a share and CNBC was doing it’s “Lampert has lost it” refrain? What a difference a few months make…

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AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) today reported net sales of $1.4 billion for its second quarter (12 weeks) ended February 14, 2009, an increase of 8.1% from fiscal second quarter 2008 (12 weeks). Domestic same store sales, or sales for stores open at least one year, increased 6.0% for the quarter.

Net income for the quarter increased $9.2 million, or 8.6%, over the same period last year to $115.9 million, while diluted earnings per share increased 21.1% to $2.03 per share from $1.67 per share in the year-ago quarter.

For the quarter, gross profit, as a percentage of sales, was 49.7% (versus 49.9% last year). Gross margin was negatively impacted by higher than prior year shrink expense of approximately 30 basis points offset in part by lower distribution costs as a percentage of sales due to improved efficiencies and lower fuel costs. Operating expenses, as a percentage of sales, were 34.9% (versus 35.2% last year). The lower operating expense ratio primarily reflected positive leverage of store operating expenses of approximately 80 basis points due to higher sales volumes and lower promotion costs, offset in part by higher investments in hub store enhancements of approximately 20 basis points, higher medical costs, and an increase in legal costs associated with estimates for minor settlements.

Under its share repurchase program, AutoZone repurchased 2.8 million shares of its common stock for $375 million during the second quarter, at an average price of $133 per share. Year-to-date the Company has purchased $647.2 million of stock, at an average price of $128 per share. The Company has $462 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

Now, Lampert first began buying AutoZone shares in 1998. Those shares are up over 345% despite two recession, the tech bubble collapse and the current sell-off. In fact, in the last year, AZO is up 28% vs a 47% decline in the S&P. By early 2000, Lampert owned 21 million shares of AutoZone. Why does that matter? Today he owns just over 23 million shares after recent purchases late 2008 and early this year. What is also of note is through share repurchases he spurred at AutoZone, his ownership share has gone from 16% in 2000 to near 50% today.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Much of the commentary on Sears (SHLD) focuses on recent share price losses. What is lost in the debate is that early shareholders with Lampert are still sitting on gains despite that fall. Meanwhile Lampert has steadily reduced the outstanding share count and increased ownership percentages for current shareholders. Let’s also not forget that Sears has a balance sheet second only to Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) in the retail space with $1.3 billion of cash on the books.

One also should credit Lampert for selling Sears credit card division in 2007 (2006?) for top dollar at the time. Anyone who follows Target knows that store credit cards are becoming an giant albatross on hanging on the neck of retail earnings.

Yes he is under with Citi (C), Sallie Mae (SLM) and a few other small positions but when measuring Lampert and Buffett, we need to look back after years, not 6 months. When you have an $8 billion portfolio (not including cash, that is not disclosed), a $19 million Home Depot (HD)investment is less than .2% of assets (note: that is “point” 2% … not 2%). For comparisons sake, Lampert has $2.3 billion in AutoZone stock, a $.80 cent rise in those shares cover the entire Home Depot investment.

Why the media disdain? One can only guess. My assumption would be that he has a loyal investor base and just does not talk to the media and that pisses them off. He also shuns communication with analysts. He essentially communicates once a year through his annual letter and the occasionally letter in between. That is it and the media hates it. Just guessing but can’t really come up with a better reason, if anyone has one, please comment below

For example it is rare to hear a story about the dismal auto environment without hearing how Lampert’s investment in AutoNation (AN) is “down “x” from its highs”. What is omitted is that AutoZone gains of $1.4 billion just since the $92 November 2008 low more than offset the approx. $700 million reduction in the value of AutoNation shares. Since the early 2008 high.

Note: a true “loss” number is hard to deduce because of heavy buying in 2008 of AN shares, lowering Lampert’s costs basis. For instance Lampert picked up millions of shares last fall between $6 and $10 a share, those purchases are gains currently. This means the actual loss on AN shares is most likely less than I stated above but we will just go with the guess above.

As for the end game. Here are my thoughts on that

The point is not to get too caught up with a single tiny investment in a portfolio and really do not get too caught up in the MSM.

Much of the malignant chatter about Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett’s “equity put options” is baseless. Those who wonder out loud if it will destroy Berkshire only prove they know little to nothing about the transaction. For instance. Buffett got $4.7 billion in 15-20 yr. S&P index puts covering $37 billion. Warren is on the hook for the full amount if at the end of the option (15-20 years) the S&P stands at 0, no chance. If at the end it is down 25% from last year, he owes $9 billion. BUT, he only need to grow the $4.7 billion just under 3% a year to cover it. In short, the option was basically a dirt free loan he can grow.

Anyone who says “Berkshire is on the hook for $37 billion” ought to be taken off your reading list….now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, SHLD, WMT, none

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