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Jim Rogers: "We are all Doomed" (video)

Not actually Mr. Rogers’ quote but the unmistakable tone of the interview.

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Part 1: Will again short the dollar & this recession will be the worst since second World War.

Part 2: Obama will “tax capital” and “protect workers” and both have proven by history to be disasters.

Part 3: China, “selling China in 2208 is like selling the US in 1908”

Part 4:Bernanke and Paulson have not let the market work and are making the crisis worse…The current commodity sell0off has been a forced liquidation and prices are going much higher.


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Monday’s Links

Not gone, Goldman, Gas, Vitaliy

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Bigger than 9/11?

No bonus

Still dropping

In Barrons….congrats


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Hedge Fund Managers Congressional Testimony (video)

Simmons, Soros, Falcone, Paulson, Griffin….Congress looks really bad here. They are asking basic tax questions of the Hedgies…Ought they know the answers?

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The End of Free Markets? (video

3 economists weight in..

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Australian economist Mark Thirlwell

James K. Gailbraith

Robert Reich


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ESL’s Eddie Lampert Files 13-F

Some new holdings…….

Wall St. Newsletters

New:
Fannie Mae (FNM)= 34 million shares
Capital One (COF)= 9.3 million shares
The Hartford (HIG)= 550k shares

Full filing

The Capital One holdings were files in an Amended 13-F later


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Jim Grant on Ben Graham (video)

This is a classic…..thanks to reader John who emailed me the link. This is Jim Grant on Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett’s mentor.

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DOJ On The Side of Bills Fans

After knowing InBev wanted to buy Budweiser (BUD) for half a year now, the Dept. of Justice struck a blow to keep beer prices down at Bills and Sabres games.

Wall St. Newsletters


From the release
:

The Department of Justice announced today that it will require InBev N.V./S.A. to divest subsidiary Labatt USA, along with a license to brew, market, promote and sell Labatt brand beer for consumption in the United States, in order to proceed with InBev’s $52 billion acquisition of Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. The Department said that the transaction, as originally proposed, would likely have led to higher prices for beer in the Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, N.Y., metropolitan areas.

The Department’s Antitrust Division filed a civil antitrust lawsuit today in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., to block the proposed transaction. At the same time, the Department filed a proposed settlement that, if approved by the court, would resolve the lawsuit and the Department’s competitive concerns.

According to the complaint, Anheuser-Busch’s Budweiser brands, including Budweiser and Bud Light, and InBev’s Labatt brands, including Labatt Blue and Labatt Blue Light, are the two biggest selling beer brand families in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. The original transaction would have eliminated competition between Labatt USA and Anheuser-Busch and resulted in higher prices to beer drinkers in those metropolitan areas.

Under the terms of the proposed settlement, InBev must sell Labatt USA and grant a license to the acquirer to brew and sell Labatt brand beer for consumption throughout the United States. The Department’s Antitrust Division must approve the purchaser of Labatt USA to ensure that the sale will restore the competition for beer sales in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse that existed before InBev purchased Anheuser-Busch.

“This divestiture will ensure that consumers will continue to benefit from the significant competition between the merging companies in upstate New York,” said Deborah A. Garza, Deputy Assistant Attorney General of the Antitrust Division.

In the large majority of markets in the United States, InBev accounts for less than two percent of beer sales and engages in very little competition with Anheuser-Busch. In contrast, sales of InBev’s Labatt beer brands in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse account for a significant portion of beer sales. The Department concluded that in those markets, the elimination of the competition between InBev and Anheuser-Busch would have resulted in higher prices for consumers. The proposed settlement will allow the purchaser of Labatt USA to sell the Labatt brands throughout the United States.

It the little things the government does that make you all warm and fuzzy towards it…


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Paulson & Co. Files 13F

Arbitrage is the name of the game here…

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Paulson & Co. added $1.8 billion of Budweiser (BUD), $1.4 billion of Rohm & Haas (ROH) and sold all of old Yahoo (YHOO).

Unlike most other funds reporting this week, Pauslon saw a 40% increase in holdings from $5 billion to $7 billion in value while the number of issue held stayed the same (22 to 23).


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Assured Guarantee Buys FSA From Dexia

Another coup for a Wilbur Ross investment.

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The WSJ Reports

Bond insurer Assured Guaranty Ltd.(AGO) on Friday struck a $722 million deal to acquire rival Financial Securities Assurance Holdings from French-Belgian lender Dexia.

Dexia, which has struggled amid the credit crunch, will receive $361 million and 44.6 million shares in stock, giving the company a 25% stake in Assured Guaranty.

While Assured Guaranty will assume $730 million of FSA debt, the insurer won’t get the toxic assets contained in FSA’s asset-management business. Those will be guaranteed by the French and Belgian governments and wind down.

Assured Guaranty and FSA have remained the only AAA-rated U.S. bond insurers, as others around them have suffered amid the slumping value of structured investments such as collateralized debt obligations.

The purchase is subject, among other things, to the three major U.S. credit raters saying the takeover won’t hurt either company’s financial strength ratings. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have been reviewing FSA for possible downgrade.

Assured Guaranty will sell stock to raise capital for the cash portion of the deal and has a back-up financing commitment from distressed-asset investor WL Ross & Co., which would purchase newly issued shares. The company has about 91 million shares outstanding.

Assured Guaranty has been able to thrive in recent months as rivals suffered amid reduced credit ratings. It has become a big player in municipal-debt insurance, with its market share climbing to 44% of insured activity in the direct new-issue U.S. public finance market last month. That compares with 1.1% a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters.

When this mess is all over, one can make the argument that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Ross’s Assured will be the sole AAA rated bond insurers out there. Without competition from the Ambacs (ABK) and MBIA’a (MBI) of the world, the price they will receive for their services will rise as they pick and choose the deal they want and get the terms they want.

Bond insurance will again be a god business…for smart people..

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GM / F Videopaloza ($gm) , ($f)

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Paulson on the subject:

Bill Ackman:
Steven Roach comments on it:

Bay City, Michigan Mayor

GM (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler heads groveling before Congress

Another analyst:

Some guy named Dave in his bedroom:


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Baupost Group Holdings Drop $300 Million

Just files 13HR..

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From the quarter ending June to the quarter ending Sept, Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group stock holdings drop from $1.9 billion to $1.6 billion.

The number of issues held fell from 69 in June to 52 in September.

Of course there is no word whether or not this was redemption based or valuation based selling.

He did add to his position in News Corp. (NWS) buy 30%. He also did large scale selling in both Wellpoint (WLP) and United Health (UNH).

In this market it is hard to tell why anyone is doing anything. Note…there is no notice as to the level of cash holdings, this is not indicative of performance, just the value of stock holdings.

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Kynikos Associate’s Jim Chanos (video)

Famed short seller Jim Chanos was on CNBC yesterday. Here are the clips. The next big short opportunity he thinks is health care service companies as he thinks their margins are going to come under pressure.

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3


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Jim Grant on the TARP and US Automakers

Grant is just awesome. This is good stuff

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Tarp:

Grant and Dennis Gartman on US Automakers

Here is Grant’s upcoming book

My review of it is here.


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Friday’s Links

1987, Sprint, NFL, The Decade, MSNBC

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– The Crash in video

– Loses another 1 million subs

– Vets win one in court

– How bad has it been?

Journalism at it finest….no wonder nobody watches it

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Lampert Buys More AutoNation

Wondered when this was going to happen

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Eddie Lampert and his ESL Investors hedge fund picked up another 520k share of AutoNation (AN) @$5.96 a share this week.

Lampert now holds over 79 million shares


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN
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