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Fairholme’s (FAIRX) Bruce Berkowitz talks about what he is buying now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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The “Black Swan” author talks about his thesis and its result on his success this year.

Here is the book:

Here is my review of it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):
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Curve, MySpace, Guns, Craig’s list

– Looks good

– Some useless info

– Gun sales up…people fear Second Amendment challenge

– Just in case things weren’t weird enough

Disclosure (“none” means no position):
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So, was this a referendum for Obama, or, scapegoating the party in charge. Check this out..

Eight of the top 10 foreclosure states all swung for Obama giving him an additional 71 electoral votes.

Would them swinging for McCain made a difference? No. It does mean that it was the central issue. 90% of exit polls said the economy was the central issue. It also means that the McCain camp really dropped the ball not linking Obama to Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) the same relentless way Obama linked McCain to Bush.

It also means that two years from now should the housing situation not be any better, Democrats may face a backlash in Congress in those election as this shows the vote in these areas was not so much “for Obama” but “against Bush”.

The only thing less popular today than Bush is Congress. The new Congress has no honeymoon period as citizens over their head want someone to blame. It will be the guys in charge, not themselves.

From ForeclosurePulse
State-By-State

1. Arizona (10 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Arizona voted for McCain.

2. California (55 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 California voted for Obama.

3. Colorado (9 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Colorado voted for Obama.

4. Florida (27 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Florida voted for Obama.

5. Georgia (15 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Georgia voted for McCain.

6. Indiana (11 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Indiana voted for Obama.

7. Michigan (17 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 Michigan voted for Obama.

8. Nevada (5 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Nevada voted for Obama.

9. New Jersey (15 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 New Jersey voted for Obama.

10. Ohio (20 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Ohio voted for Obama.

It will be interesting….

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Listen closely to this……..simplify the verbiage and you have the basis for the speeches being given today..

The best line, “the unscrupulous money changers now indicted in the court of public opinion” and “there must be an end to speculation with other people’s money”. At the end he asks for “broad executive power”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):
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If your day is easily ruined, don’t watch this….but…..he did predict the current situation to a tee.

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Only 9 days left to apply…

Company: Banner Corp. (BANR)
Participation: Banner received preliminary approval to participate, and the
company plans to issue $124 million in senior preferred shares, with
warrants to purchase up to $18.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital will increase Banner’s Tier 1 leverage capital ratio
to about 11.25% from 8.86% at Sept. 30 and its total risk-based capital
ratio to about 13.9% from 11%.

Company: Columbia Banking Systems Inc. (COLB)
Participation: Columbia received preliminary approval and could issue up to
$76.9 million in senior preferred shares and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would raise Columbia’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14% from 11.24% at Sept. 30.

Company: Heritage Financial Corp. (HFWA)
Participation: Heritage received preliminary approval and plans to issue
about $24 million in senior preferred shares, with warrants to purchase
about $3.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Heritage’s risk-based capital ratio
to about 13.5%.

Company: Taylor Capital Group Inc. (TAYC)
Participation: Taylor applied to participate and, if approved, plans to
receive an equity investment of about $105 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Taylor’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14%.

Company: Bridge Bancorp (BDGE)
Participation: Bridge is considering participation and has filed a
preliminary proxy statement for a special meeting of shareholders to
approve issuing preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: Cascade Financial Corp. (CASB)
Participation: Cascade received notice that the U.S. Treasury plans to
invest about $39 million in senior preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The new capital will raise Cascade’s Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio
to about 10% and its total risk-based capital ratio to about 13%.

Company: Midwest Banc Holdings Inc. (MBHI)
Participation: Midwest received preliminary approval to sell $85.5 million
of preferred shares and issue warrants allowing the U.S. Treasury to
acquire $12.8 million of common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The infusion would raise the consolidated company and bank
subsidiary pro forma risk-based capital ratios of 11.13% and 10.8%,
respectively.

Company: Pamrapo Bancorp Inc. (PBCI)
Participation: Pamrapo plans to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$11.4 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: Assuming full participation, Pamrapo’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 11.5% from 9.82% at Sept. 30.

Company: TCF Financial Corp. (TCB)
Participation: TCF received preliminary approval for a $361 million
investment with warrants to buy about 3.2 million common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Participation: U.S. Bancorp has received preliminary approval for the sale
of $6.6 billion of preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The company’s Tier 1 capital ratio would rise to 11.4% from 8.5% at
Sept. 30.

Company: The Bank Holdings Inc. (TBHS)
Participation: The Bank Holdings has applied to participate, including the
issuance of $5 million to $15 million in preferred senior shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 1
Notes: n/a

Company: American West Bancorp (AWBC)
Participation: American West said it plans to apply for $57 million, the
maximum for which it would be eligible.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Financial Bancorp (FFBC)
Participation: First Financial received preliminary approval for the
Treasury to invest $80 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: NewBridge Bancorp (NBBC)
Participation: NewBridge has applied for $52 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Community Bancshares Inc. (FCBC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury approved First Community’s application.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: Chief Executive Officer John M. Mendez said in a conference call
that the company applied for the maximum investment and expects to get
$42.5 million.

Company: Mackinac Financial Corp. (MFNC)
Participation: Mackinac said it plans to participate in the program,
although it has yet to determine the extent to which it will do so.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: The bank and corporation said they remain well capitalized within
regulatory guidelines.

Company: Signature Bank (SBNY)
Participation: Signature applied for a $120 million investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Simmons First National Corp. (SFNC)
Participation: Simmons received preliminary approval to participate and
expects to sell $40 million of preferred shares through the program.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $15 billion in Bank of
America.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $3 billion into Bank
of New York Mellon.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Citigroup Inc. (C)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into
Citigroup.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Goldman Sachs.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into J.P.
Morgan.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Merrill Lynch.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Morgan Stanley (MS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Morgan Stanley
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into Wells
Fargo.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Wells Fargo said separately that its Tier 1 capital ratio was 8.5%
at Sept. 30, before the injection of new capital.

Company: Whitney Holding Corp. (WTNY)
Participation: Whitney intends to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$282 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Assuming full participation, Whitney’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 12.17%.

Company: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Participation: Fifth Third received notification that the U.S. Treasury
would invest $3.45 billion in the bank’s preferred shares and related
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28.
Notes: The current investment, on a pro forma basis, would have increased
the bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio at Sept. 30 to about 11.5% from 8.5%,
total capital ratio to 15.3% from 12.3% and ratio of tangible
equity and tangible assets to 9.3% from 6.2%.

Company: International Bancshares Corp. (IBOC)
Participation: Board believes the bank would be eligible for up to $200
million under the program if it secures amendments to allow it to issue
preferred stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: On Oct. 27, the bank’s board approved resolutions to amend bank
by-laws in order to allow it to issue preferred shares and called for a
special shareholder meeting to approve the move.

Company: Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)
Participation: Marshall & Ilsley received preliminary approval for about
$1.7 billion in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: This capital would raise the company’s Tier 1 and total capital
ratio levels to 10.9% and 14.8%, respectively, from 7.9% and 11.8% at Sept.
30.

Company: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Participation: Umpqua received preliminary approval for an investment $214
million in preferred shares with warrants to buy about $32 million in
common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The investment will increase Umpqua’s total risk-based capital ratio
to about 14% from 11.2% at Sept. 30.

Company: Zions Bancorp (ZION)
Participation: Zions received preliminary approval for $1.4 billion of
capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The capital would raise Zions Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio to
10.9% from 8.07% and its total risk based capital ratio to 15.13% from
12.3%.

Company: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Participation: Capital One received approval to sell $3.55 billion in
preferred stock
and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: City National Corp. (CYN)
Participation: City National received preliminary approval for the Treasury
to invest about $395 million in the company’s preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will increase City National’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
12% from 9.1%.

Company: Comerica Inc. (CMA)
Participation: Comerica received approval to sell $2.25 billion in senior
preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Comerica said participation in the program is expected to raise its
Tier 1 capital ratio to an estimated 10.35% from an estimated 7.35% at
Sept. 30.

Company: First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG)
Participation: The Treasury approved investment of up to $186 million in
First Niagara.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: HF Financial Corp. (HFFC)
Participation: HF received preliminary approval to participate and applied
to sell $25 million in preferred shares to the Treasury.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)
Participation: The Treasury will buy $1.4 billion of preferred shares and
will receive warrants to buy common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will raise Huntington’s Tier 1 and Total Capital
ratios to 11.9% and 15.1%, respectively, from 8.9% and 12.1%.

Company: KeyCorp (KEY)
Participation: KeyCorp plans to sell $2.5 billion in preferred stock and
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: KeyCorp said that if it had secured the capital prior to Sept. 30,
its Tier 1 ratio would have been 10.8%, not the 8.5% recorded. The deal was
slated to close within 30 days.

Company: Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)
Participation: The Treasury plans to buy $1.5 billion in senior preferred
and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Participation: Old National was notified by the U.S. Treasury that it would
be eligible, but the bank hasn’t entered into an agreement.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Provident Bankshares Corp. (PBKS)
Participation: Provident was granted preliminary approval to participate.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Participation is subject to execution of the program’s required
procedures and approval by the company’s board.

Company: Regions Financial Corp. (RF)
Participation: Regions received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
in preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: The Treasury investment will increase Region’s Tier 1 capital to
about 10.5%. Regions will pay the government a 5% dividend, or $175 million
a year, for each of the first five years of the investment, and 9%
thereafter unless Regions redeems the shares.

Company: State Street Corp. (STT)
Participation: State Street reached a definitive agreement for the U.S.
Treasury to invest $2 billion.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The Treasury will receive 20,000 shares of State Street’s Series B
fixed-rate cumulative perpetual preferred stock, $100,000 liquidation
preference per share, and a 10-year warrant to purchase 5.58 million shares
of State Street’s common stock at an exercise price of
$53.80 a share.

Company: SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI)
Participation: SunTrust received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: Chief Executive James M. Wells said he anticipated the “prudent
deployment” of capital in areas such as the expansion of “careful lending”
and business capability, as well as the exploration of potential
acquisitions. Wells also said keeping capital at elevated levels was
desirable given the economic environment. Suntrust simultaneously cut its
quarterly dividend by 30% to 54 cents from 77 cents.

Company: UCBH Holdings Inc. (UCBH)
Participation: UCBH received preliminary approval for a $298 million
Treasury investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The new capital will boost UCBH’s risk-based capital ratio to
15% from 12.5%.

Company: Washington Federal Inc. (WFSL)
Participation: Washington Federal will issue $200 million in senior
preferred shares, with warrants to purchase up to $30 million in common
stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 26
Notes: n/a

Company: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Participation: First Horizon will receive about $866 million in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: The investment will increase the company’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
14.1% from 10.9%.

Company: PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)
Participation: PNC will sell $7.7 billion of preferred shares and warrants
to finance its stock-and-cash purchase of National City Corp. (NCC).
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: n/a

Company: Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Participation: Valley was approved to sell $330 million in nonvoting senior
preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: Valley has “no plan or current need” to participate in other aspects
of TARP, specifically the sale of troubled assets.

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The papers and the internet are filled with recommendation for you about the “Obama Trade”. In other words, what stocks will most likely benefit from an Obama presidency.

I’ll save the linking to the 1,000 plus posts today alone. Here is a Google Search for them though….only 2.1 million hits

So, what to do? Should we sell defense stocks like Boeing (BA), Lockhead Martin (LMT) and Northrup Grumman (NOC)? Should we also sell Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) since he has tralked about taxing their “windfall profits”.

Should be be buyers of healthcare stocks like Tenent (THC), United Health (UNH) and WellPoint (WLP) since any government sponsored health plan will be a boon for their business? What about alternative energy plays like First Solar (FSLR) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Obama has pledged more money for this sector after all.

What to do now? Nothing.

During the election, everything is promised to everyone by every candidate. Now reality sets in. Choices have to be made and not everything promised will be delivered. IF, Obama is truly going to be a candidate of “change” then the old political party based investing rules do not apply.

On the other hand, he may have debts to pay to those who elected him and move to satisfy those folks.

We don’t know and committing money to a certain area on a hunch of what he and the congress may actually do, is risky. There are too many factors in the price of a stock or a sector for anyone to say “x” company will for well the next 4 years. If the company is run by a dolt, does it matter who sits in the White House? If we throw billions of dollars at the ethanol industry and then a natural disaster destroys the corn crop, does the Democrat or Republican in the WH matter?

If Exxon hits a gusher and oil prices plummet, the public’s desire to spend money on alternative fuels will be eliminated.

What about 2010? 19 Senate seats (out of 100) are up for grabs. If the GOP regains control, current plans may be derailed and a new set of priorities may emerge.

What if Iran follows through will its pledge to try and wipe Israel off the map? Anyone care to wager that would not cause an instant and dramatic increase in defense spending?

Simply pick good companies trading at attractive prices. Fortunately, there are plenty of them around right now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none
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There is a nice back and forh here between Wilbur and GE’s (GE) former CEO Jack Welch.

They cover GM (GM), Ford (F) and what they think needs to happen going forward.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE, none
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Both the bond insurers situation is deteriorating…

Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) both reported widening Q3 and 9 month

Ambac reported and announced third quarter 2008 net loss of $2,431.2 million, or net loss of $8.45 on a per share basis. This compares to third quarter 2007 net loss of $360.6 million, or net loss of $3.53 on a per share basis. The increased net loss in the third quarter of 2008 is primarily due to recording net mark-to-market losses on credit derivatives, increased loss provisioning primarily related to second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) insurance transactions and market losses on RMBS within the financial services investment portfolio, partially offset by increased accelerated premiums from refundings.

MBIA (MBI) reported a net loss of $1.5 billion, or $6.97 per share, for the first nine months of 2008, compared with net income of $373.8 million, or $2.84 per share, during the same period in 2007. The Company recorded a net loss of $806.5 million, or $3.48 per share, for the third quarter of 2008, driven primarily by increases to loss reserves on the Company’s second lien residential mortgage exposures and net realized and unrealized losses attributable to the Company’s Asset Liability Management (ALM) business. The net loss for the third quarter of 2007 was $36.6 million or $0.30 per share.
Ambac

One has to wonder how long this can go on…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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