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Fed Rate Cut Tomorrow? Why?

What would a rate cut solve?


MarketWatch Reports:

The Federal Reserve will cut its target overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point to 1.50% at its meeting tomorrow, said Merrill Lynch economists David Rosenberg and Drew Matus in a note Monday. “In the current environment, the Fed may feel the need to get in front of the situation with a more aggressive move” instead of the standard quarter-point reduction, they said. Merrill (MER 19.30), one of the 19 primary security dealers that trade directly with the New York Fed, was bought by another dealer, Bank of America (BAC) overnight. “Recent events suggest a large deleveraging of the banking system is picking up steam and suggests the risks to the economy are entirely concentrated in the growth outlook,” Rosenberg and Matus said. Merrill analysts had previously expected the Fed to reduce rates in the first quarter as inflation subsided. “Inflation concerns will take a backseat, or move to the trunk,” they said. The Fed may also remind markets that the discount window and other liquidity facilities are available.

The problem out there is not the cost of credit (rates) but the availability of it. Bernanke could lower rates to 1% and it would not matter in any way other than causing inflation to spike and the dollar to fall.

In my recent interview with AutoNation (AN) CEO Mike Jackson he comment that “Fed rate cuts are not working like they have in the past”. Jackson said that is isn’t a question of the rate at which banks will lend at, it is a matter of them holding on to their liquidity (cash) and just not lending it at all. Typically lower rates spur demand for lending from consumers and businesses. There is plenty of demand for loans out there, banks are just not parting with the money they have.

Lower rates are insignificant here…

The only thing a rate cut would do is give a mental boost to the markets for a day. Then reason sets in and people realize the only thing another rate cut will accomplish is inflate prices, depress the dollar, and allow American’s to once again watch the price or oil rise going into winter.

There are times that the best things to do is nothing…this is one of those times.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none
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Ross Says 1,000 Banks Go Under (video)

Wilbur Ross on Sunday talking Lehman (LEH), Merrill (MER) and Bank of America (BAC).


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Bank of America / Merrill Lynch…..Why Now?

Not sure I get this one. When Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis bought Countrywide (CFC) earlier this year, he essentially doubled down on a bet he made last year when he invested $2 billion in the mortgage lender at prices double his eventual takeover price. Now, Merrill Lynch (MER).

After last night’s failure of Lehman Brother’s (LEH), I don’t think anyone can argue Merrill Lynch (MER) was not the next domino to fall. That being said, to buy them now, for a premium to it current valuation, smacks of deja vue of Lewis’s initial Countrywide investment.

While Merril is a premium name and we all know Bank of America wanted to expand into Merrill’s domain, one can’t help but wonder about the price being paid. Going into the weekend the future of Lehman was in doubt and patience on the part of Lewis could have saved shareholders billions.

After watching both Bear Sterns and Lehman, options for Merrill were minimal at best for this upcoming week. Even had Lehman got its lifeline, its effect on Merrill would have been minimal as it still would have been the next institution in the cross-hairs.

All in all the deal is a good one for Bank of America from an operational standpoint, it was just done a way too high a price…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Fed Increases Available Liquidity

Last night, the Fed announced the following move in the wake of the Lehman (LEH) bankruptcy and Bank of America’s (BAC) takeover of Merrill Lynch (MER).

Here is the Fed move:

The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced several initiatives to provide additional support to financial markets, including enhancements to its existing liquidity facilities.

“In close collaboration with the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission, we have been in ongoing discussions with market participants, including through the weekend, to identify potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses,” said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets.”

“We have been and remain in close contact with other U.S. and international regulators, supervisory authorities, and central banks to monitor and share information on conditions in financial markets and firms around the world,” Chairman Bernanke said.

The collateral eligible to be pledged at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) has been broadened to closely match the types of collateral that can be pledged in the tri-party repo systems of the two major clearing banks. Previously, PDCF collateral had been limited to investment-grade debt securities.

The collateral for the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) also has been expanded; eligible collateral for Schedule 2 auctions will now include all investment-grade debt securities. Previously, only Treasury securities, agency securities, and AAA-rated mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities could be pledged.

These changes represent a significant broadening in the collateral accepted under both programs and should enhance the effectiveness of these facilities in supporting the liquidity of primary dealers and financial markets more generally.

Also, Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be conducted each week; previously, Schedule 2 auctions had been conducted every two weeks. In addition, the amounts offered under Schedule 2 auctions will be increased to a total of $150 billion, from a total of $125 billion. Amounts offered in Schedule 1 auctions will remain at a total of $50 billion. Thus, the total amount offered in the TSLF program will rise to $200 billion from $175 billion.

The Board also adopted an interim final rule that provides a temporary exception to the limitations in section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act. It allows all insured depository institutions to provide liquidity to their affiliates for assets typically funded in the tri-party repo market. This exception expires on January 30, 2009, unless extended by the Board, and is subject to various conditions to promote safety and soundness.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):none
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Marty Whitman Talk Value Investing (video)

This hour long video from 2007 is just a classic. Third Avenue Value’s (TAVFX) leader talks about Graham and Dodd investing.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long TAVFX
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Monday’s Links

Dividend, Gphone, Driving, Gumshoe

– Want a 5% and growing yield?

– I can’t wait to see this, not that I’ll buy one, I just am curious as to features

– This is sooo true

– I actually had not seen this one yet


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Charlie Rose & Roger Lowenstein on Buffett , 1995 (video)

Lowenstein wrote perhaps the best book on Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Buffett in my opinion. In this 1994 interview he discusses it.

Here is Lowenstein’s book:

Here is the interview. The Buffett section is 32 min. into it.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Ackman Says, "I Got Buyers" and Here They Come

So, just a day after Bill Ackman claims CVS’ (CVS) offer for Longs Drugs (LDG) is too low and that he “has other interested parties”, they begin to emerge.

The WSJ Reports:

Walgreens said it would pay $75 a share in cash to buy the California-based Longs, besting CVS’s price of $71.50 per share, also in cash, which was equivalent to about $2.7 billion. Either deal would also include the assumption of about $200 million in debt.

Walgreens CEO Jeffrey Rein said in a letter to Longs’ board of directors that the company would prefer to negotiate with Longs directly but was also prepared to take the offer directly to the company’s shareholders.

Rein also noted in the letter, which Walgreens disclosed in a press release late Friday, that Walgreens had expressed an interest in acquiring Longs earlier for $70 a share but never received due diligence materials from the company.

What annoys me the most is that I was actually going to do the “Ackman Longs Trade” discuss Thursday on Monday, it would have been a nice 4.5% in a day….would have been..

Like I have said here countless times, timing is indeed everything and I missed out on this one.


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Einhorn Buys 11% of Helix

In a just released SEC filing, David Einhorn, through his Greenlight entities has purchased 11% of Helix Energy Solutions (HLX).

In the filing, Einhorn discloses purchases bringing his ownership to 10.2 million shares through 4 entities.

Here is the recent activity


Who Is Helix?:

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (Helix) is an international offshore energy company providing reservoir development solutions and other contracting services to the energy market, as well as to other oil and gas properties. Helix operates in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Asia Pacific and Middle East regions. The Contracting Services segment utilizes the vessels and offshore equipment that when applied with the methodologies reduce finding and development (F&D) costs. The Oil and Gas segment is engaged in prospect generation, exploration, development and production activities. On December 11, 2007, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Cal Dive (CDI) completed the acquisition of Horizon Offshore, Inc. (Horizon). In July 2007, the Company acquired the remaining 42% interest in Well Ops SEA Pty Ltd. On September 30, 2007, Helix 30% working interest in the Phoenix oilfield, the Boris oilfield and the Little Burn oilfield to Sojitz GOM Deepwater, Inc.


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The Week’s Best at VIN

Here are the week’s top at Value Investing News

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Ackman Has Buyers for Longs: CVS Answers His Valuation

Bill Ackman, who has an economic interest in 26% of Longs Drugs (LDG) shares says the CVS (CVS) offer is insufficient and is getting his own buyers. The CEO of CVS answers his claim this morning on CBNC.

From the Letter:

We and our financial advisor are pursuing alternative transaction partners for the Company. We have identified four potential buyers including two separate strategic buyers, a REIT and a real estate private equity investor, each of which we believe is interested in pursuing an alternative transaction with the Company. Some of these parties have been identified in the press while others have not. We are confident that the Company and its advisors would view each of these parties as bona fide and will recognize each as having the willingness and ability to pay substantially more than $71.50, including any lawful break-up fee, in addition to a substantial premium to shareholders.
While we can give no assurance that any party will come forward with an offer, the likelihood of such an event would materially increase if interested parties have more time to do their work and if the Company appropriately responds to inquiries that could lead to one or more superior offers.
Fortunately, given the tender offer’s 66 2/3% minimum tender condition, the Board has empowered shareholders to act on their own behalf by choosing not to tender into the offer at this time. Moreover, given the put right described above, shareholders retain the optionality to sell at a later date and get paid dividends while they wait.
While the terms of the Transaction limit the Company’s ability to fully re-open the auction process, Pershing Square and Blackstone are not limited from seeking higher and better offers. We are continuing to do just that. Blackstone will carry on its efforts to encourage potentially interested parties to approach the Company with alternative transactions. We are hopeful that, if such parties move forward with alternative transaction proposals, the Company’s Board of Directors and its advisors will welcome the opportunity for a better deal.
We will update you with our progress within 45 days. Please feel free to call me if you have any questions.

On CNBC today the CEO of CVS answered Ackman’s comments from yesterday. Here is what Ackman said:

Now, the CVS CEO’s answer:

It is unfortunate that neither CVS or CNBC seemed to be aware of the Ackman letter from yesterday. Perhaps the discussion would have been more accurate had they been aware of the other potential buyers?

No matter who you believe here is the really sad part of this whole thing. Ackman, whether you admire or despise him is doing the very job the Board of Directors and the CEO of Long’s should have done, maximize the potential value for shareholders.

The more I see stuff like this the more I start to lean toward the camps of people who want more shareholder rights and control…and I don’t even have any skin in this particular game.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Seth Klarman at Harvard (video)

A video from May 1st, 2006. Seth Klarman guest lecture at Harvard’s Psychology of Leadership course. It is a 48 minute video but worth the time.


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Friday’s Links

Monopoly?, biodiesel, Taxes, Speeches

– Is anyone surprise by this?

– Sick of gas? Run it on used kitchen oil.

– Will he or won’t he raise them, does he know?

– This is really cool, see what the speeches really focused on

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Ackman Sends Letter to Longs Board

Bill Ackman says the CVS (CVS) offer for Longs Drug(LDG) is way too low.

Says Ackman:
“With owned real estate of $1.3 billion and leased full service real estate of $1.6 billion, the Company’s real estate assets alone are worth $2.9 billion, or approximately $71.50 per share. In effect, CVS is buying Longs’ real estate and is getting its PBM business and retail operations for free.”


Read Letter


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9/11……………..

Just got this emailed to me………..sent chills down my spine. It is amazing how this bring everything you felt that day right back to the surface

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