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Sell Side Analysts…What do they do?

Somehow I’m constantly surprised at what the sell side analysts do and don’t focus on. Listening to the BKS Q2 call this morning there wasn’t a single question about Borders (BGP) (fresh topic considering there was an article in the WSJ last week about it) and not a single question about the announcement of the CEO of Barnes & Noble.com (BKS) resigning two days ago. All the street wanted to focus on was what the EPS for the year was going to be so they could slap a multiple on it and write a two paragraph note summarizing the press release.

Yes it’s highly likely that BKS management would have sidestepped the questions but the questions should have been asked anyway. You never know but maybe they would have given us a small bit of information in how they sidestep the questions or just the tone of their voice. Hey look even Colonel Jessup was dying to tell the truth. What’s even more shocking to me is when the sell side analysts are asked some of these question before the call in a private conversation and still don’t follow up on it.

It’s a real shame but in the end I guess it’s my fault…I shouldn’t be surprised!

Earnings transcript

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long-BGP, None-BKS

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Dan Loeb of Third Point Q2 Letter & More on the SEC

The SEC is ridiculous. When it comes to financials like Citi (C), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE), Bear Sterns (BSC), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman (LEH) and Morgan Stanley (MS), the only people telling the truth are the shorts like Ackman, Einhorn, Loeb and Tilson. Why isn’t the management being investigated? Virtually every public statement they have made had in the end has been erroneous and the shorts, who have been right, are being called “rumor mongers”. If it is true, is it a rumor?

Is this like Bill Clinton and “it depends on what your definition of “is” is”?

Anyway, read what Loeb has to say about it in his Q2 letter dated 7/25.

During the second quarter of 2008, the market witnessed a significant increase in
regulatory activity by the SEC and other government entities. Over the past several
weeks, the SEC has served subpoenas on over 50 different hedge funds, seeking
information relating to short sales in Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the
dissemination of rumors about those companies in the market.

This investigation comes at the same time that the SEC has implemented several other
measures designed to address short-selling. On July 15, 2008, the SEC instituted a 30-day emergency measure aiming to make the short-selling of certain financial institutions more difficult by requiring all sellers to borrow or enter into a bona fide agreement with the share lender to borrow the securities prior to the short sale.

The SEC also recently announced that it is concerned about the deliberate spreading of false rumors by short-sellers – known as rumor mongering – which some have claimed led to the Bear Stearns implosion. To this end, the SEC announced that its regulators would immediately begin conducting examinations of broker-dealers and investment advisers to determine whether they have sufficient procedures in place to protect against the dissemination of false rumors.

As you may recall, the SEC conducted an audit of Third Point last year after we
registered as an investment advisor. During the course of the audit, the examination staff noted that we regularly communicate with portfolio managers at other hedge funds about investment and trading ideas. The SEC later informed us that it had commenced a formal investigation of Third Point primarily relating to these types of communications. Such conversations permit us to test our hypotheses and refine our thinking and, as a result, we believe that participating in give-and-take with other managers is in the best interest of our investors. Our outside counsel has examined this matter thoroughly and assured us that our position is consistent with the securities laws and that we have not violated any law in connection with these communications.

Regulatory matters are certainly playing a significant role in the life of hedge funds as the obligations and demands of the current regulatory environment continue to increase. However, rest assured that we have a strong operational and legal team to assist me in these endeavors, and as a result, all of us on the investment team at Third Point remain completely focused on our investment activities and maximizing returns for our investors.


Full Letter

Is the fact that the company’s are able to place the “safe harbor” disclaimers after their filings that eliminate them from investigation? Does that magically make whatever they say, when it turns out to be spectacularly wrong a “mulligan”?

When it was required of company’s to place the “investment risks” and safe harbor in the filings, is it now the unintended consequence of those actions the fact that management is now able to paint as rosy picture as humanly possible on the business and those statements and the presumptions they give investors are only good for the day they are filed? Have we, in a effort to get “more disclosure” from them, in essence, indemnified management from any legal recourse for their public statements?

Yet, short sellers are not protected from making the same statements, only in an opposing thesis, even if that thesis is ultimately born out as accurate? Are we only protecting optimism, even if it is disingenuous, for lack of a better word while punishing honest pessimism?

Now, it is true that cases have not been brought by the SEC (yet) but, let’s be honest, one would be painfully naive to think that SEC investigations of 50 hedge funds would not have a chilling effect on those who might be inclined to short sell. If shorting Lehman is going to bring and SEC investigation and additional legal costs, is it worth it for the small fund? Probably not.

Is the SEC trying to shut down communications between hedge funds? What is a rumor and what is an opinion? Are they issuing subpoena’s to execs at Citi, Merrill and Lehman asking for all their internal communication and communications they have had with each other so we cab ascertain when they new they would need additional capital and if this contradicts public statements?

Personally, I do not have the stomach to be a short, not in my nature. If you can do it, go for it. The SEC ought to require shorts to disclose their positions, just like longs do. But, they ought not single them out for dissection because we do not like what they say.

Don’t kill the messenger because you do not like the news, go after the guys who created the bad news the messenger delivers…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, none

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Did Borders.com Results Lead To Barnes & Noble Chief Exit?

The timing of this one is just really odd..

Barnes & Noble Inc (BKS), the largest U.S. specialty bookseller, said on Tuesday the chief executive of its online business resigned

Barnes & Noble said Marie J. Toulantis’s duties have been assumed by E-Commerce vice president Tom Burke and Kevin Frain, its chief financial officer. The bookseller said Toulantis will remain with the company as a consultant.

Now, this comes just a week after its rival, Borders (BGP) online results became public and BKS said it would not be able to finance a deal for Borders.

The graphs on the previous post show Borders online traffic and conversions surging since going live in June through July 26. One must assume this trend has continued and that Borders gains are coming at the expense of Barnes and Noble, not so much Amazon (AMZN).

Here is the chart:

Borders did a great job on the site and it is being marketed to Rewards members brilliantly. It’s current conversion rate of 5% is up from 2.5% when it was part of amazon and now just behind Barnes & Noble’s 5.9% after only 8 weeks (as of 7/26).

Borders is scheduled to report next week, the 28th. I have a feeling, and I hope the analysts on the call ask a ton of questions about the online results, investors will be happy.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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Wednesday’s Links

Greenspan, Greenspan, Greenspan and oh, Greenspan

Felix is correct

On housing

This is funny

Ritholtz nails Greenspan

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AutoNation, Sears and AutoZone Getting Closer

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD, AN, None

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More Lead Paint Tantrum’s and True Irony…

Irony first since it is soooo sweet here..

Remember the DuPont (DD) “settlment” with the State of Rhode Island that at the time allowed them to be dropped from further litigation and left Sherwin Williams (SHW) and NL Industries (NL) the target of a billion(s) dollar lawsuit? Yeah, the one in which the “settlement” money when to the RI AG’s Alma Mater, The International Mesothelioma Program at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston and a DuPont controlled charity?

I know what you are saying, “I didn’t know lead paint caused Mesothelioma!” It doesn’t, read more about it here.

Anyway, after all is said and done and the RISC tossed to case out on its ear, said it never should had been brought and all but questioned the legitimacy of the trial judge, guess who is the only one paying for lead abatement in Rhode Island? Yup, DuPont!!

Now onto Tantrums:
Jane Genova reports
“Attempting to rebut a legal ruling with non-legal arguments is insulting to the readers of THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL. Brashly, it underestimates the ability of the residents of RI to discern points of law from other realities of life. The High Court in RI said the lead paint public nuisance litigation had no merit. That is a point of law.

Yes, the realities of life tend to be that justice is not always kind. In addition, large corporations tend to have more resources to invest in litigation than does a government entity like the RI Attorney General’s office. That’s exactly why the authors of this op-ed – Motley Rice attorneys – were brought in on a contingency basis to assist with the litigation. Had the state prevailed, Motley Rice would have earned 16+ percent of abatement funds. Since the plaintiff’s abatement proposal was in the billions, Motley Rice had plenty to earn. Also, no newsflash, low-income children tend to live in older residential units. I was one of the children in a downtown Jersey City, New Jersey tenement. My grandmother and mother intervened. They had the property owner paint over the blue flaking paint I was chewing. That took care of that.

Last Friday, at the RI Superior Court hearing before Judge Michael Silverstein on reimbursement of certain costs to the defendants, Assistand Attorney General Neil Kelly also decried the RI SC decision. In an interview on that hearing with AP reporter Eric Tucker, so did Jack McConnell.

Odd that those with law licenses would argue legal points by introducing everything but points of law. All attorneys, not just government and plaintiff ones, might feel a sense of shame that members of the bar are behaving in what I perceive to be an unprofessional manner.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, None

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Fuld Done? What’s Taking So Long?

CNBC go around to addressing why Lehman (LEH) CEO Dick Fuld still has a job.

Lehman is dumping assets faster than deck chair off the Titanic and CEO Fuld still has a job. How????

He hung CFO Erin Callan out to dry instead focusing his time and energy on blaming short sellers for Lehman’s plight. Those short sellers it has to be noted seemed to have had a better grip on his company’s financials a year ago that Fuld did or even seems to now.

Video:

It is only a matter of time before Fuld in mercilessly let go, or allowed to commit corporate “hari kari” and exit on his own. I would guess the latter. The only reason I think that is simply do to his hanging on for this long.

Fuld will join execs at Citi (C), Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bear Sterns (BSC) who told investors one things, delivered quite the opposite and were then allowed to “pursue other opportunities”.

I do wonder though. Since banks seem to recycle these guys like left handed starting pitchers, where will they resurface and how long will it take?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, WB, None

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Wells Fargo CEO Stumpf (Video)

Okay, let’s just forget Cramer uses my Wells Fargo in 1990 analogy from 2 weeks ago in the interview. What is more important is what Stumpf has to say.

There is a commercial break in the middle of the video so do not tune out, there is more after.

Cramer actually said, “I like to challenge my own thesis when I am bullish on a stock because these are just pieces of paper.” Doesn’t that go against everything you are ever taught about investing and buying “pieces of great companies”?

Anyway, on to Stumpf.

Stumpf addresses and I think does a fantastic job refuting Meridith Whitney’s take on the company that it was playing with loan write offs to increase earnings. Stumpf points out that they took a $3 billion charge in Q2 and only $1.5 billion was write-downs ($1.5 billion increased reserves). Had they not changed to way they account for charge-offs, the difference would have been $254 million and covered in the reserves they took.

Best line. “We didn’t miss every bad party but we missed most of them”.

Video:

Wells Fargo’s (WFC) largest shareholder is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, None

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Hurricane = Danger

Nothing to do with investing, human nature I guess….but I have to ask. Why, why is it every time there is a hurricane, we see something like this?

This guy thought a hurricane would be a good time to windsurf….really…

It just goes to show people will never learn. It also means in investing there will always be bubbles and panics as some folks will never learn despite irrefutable proof from the past. After all, investors and wind surfers are both human…

It like those who invested in housing (or gave loans to those) with “liar loans”. Either they were just dopes who thought nothing could go wrong, or, they were smart folks who knew the risks but just miscalculated. Like our wind surfer below, he could be a dope or, a smart guy who just miscalculated the wind speed.

Either way the result is the same, not understanding your risk in anything could be tragic. People are losing their homes and the windsurfer is in critical condition.

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Tuesday’s links

SEC vs Short Sellers, Brazil, Twitter, MBIA

– Just stop with all the new rules, just enforce the ones you actually have

– Is there anyone not rushing to get in there?

– I can’t believe they do not have an app for the Blackberry

– Tom Brown makes the case for MBIA

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AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson on Domestic Auto Makers

Things are not looking good for Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler….

Mike Jackson says that the decision to stop leasing is hurting US makers in a bad way. Shareholders ought to rejoice he began reducing AutoNation’s (AN) exposure to US brands last year.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none

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Wilbur Ross on Credit Markets, Interest Rates and Politics (video)

Here is a three part series with Wilbur Ross

Part 1: Credit Markets: Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE),

Part 2: Interest Rates

Part 3: Ross on Politics

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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Report: Lehman to Lose$1.8 billion, Is Einhorn Still Wrong?

Do you think Lehman Brothers (LEH) will ever admit David Einhorns know more about their business than they do? Me either…….

The WSJ is reporting that Lehman will announce:

“a loss of $1.8 billion or more, instead of the modest profit they previously expected. If the dour projections come true, Lehman’s losses since the start of March would total at least $4.5 billion — or more than the firm churned out in profit during fiscal 2007.”

Now this means Lehman will be forced to:

1- Sell valuable real estate business
2- Sell Neuberger Berman
3- Dumped CDO’s for pennies in a Merrill Lynch (MER) like firesale
4- Raise more equity through additional common share or debt issuance
5- Some combination or all of the above

Most of this began coming to a head in June when Lehman began attacking David Einhorn, who had shorted the stock and had appeared on CNBC stating his thesis for doing so.

Only a day or so later, Lehman began buying back shares to reassure investors of the confidence in the stock.

A week later, Einhorn gave this interview after essentially everything he said came to fruition. It is important to note he said in June more losses were to come.

Three days later, CFO Erin Callan was done

Why, why is anyone investigating or threatening to investigate Einhorn or Ackman when nothing, nothing that has come out of a bankers mouth in the last year has been born out to be remotely accurate.

Shouldn’t they be the ones in front of investigators????

Is there anyone left at Lehman other than CEO Dick Fuld left to take the fall…finally?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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Monday’s Links

Value investing vs Growth Investing

– Only one thing to read today……Google searches for “value investing” vs “growth investing”


Kudos to George at Fat Pitch for this

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Ackman goes against shorts betting on Sears, Target

Bloomberg article on Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management. Discusses some of his investments, including Sears (SHLD) and Target (TGT).

Article points out that Sear and Target,

“.. reached record levels of short interest as a percentage of publicly traded shares in the last month. Sears led the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index with 55.9 percent as of Aug. 12, according to Bloomberg data. Target’s reached 7 percent.”

Memorable quotes by Whitney Tilson founder of T2 Partners:

“It’s easy to say when a stock has declined after you buy it that you’ve made a mistake, but there’s a big difference between being early and being wrong”

“The fact that there are so many naysayers out there,” he said, “just means that vindication will be all the sweeter”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD

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