ValuePlays – Page 620 – A value investing site launched in Jan 2007

Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 8, 2008

Upgrades
Flowserve (FLS)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Bankrate (RATE)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy
Commercial Metals (CMC)- Davenport Neutral » Buy
Marten Transport (MRTN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Beneficial Mutual Bancorp (BNCL)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Celadon Group (CLDN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
First Commonwealth (FCF)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Energy Conversion (ENER)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
EMC Corp (EMC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Fastenal (FAST)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Southwest Bancorp (OKSB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Dyncorp Intl (DCP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CF Industries (CF)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Temple-Inland (TIN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Smurfit-Stone (SSCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Saia (SAIA)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Con-way (CNW)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Ameristar Casinos (ASCA)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Kindred Healthcare (KND)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Broadcom (BRCM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Suncor Energy (SU)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
J. Crew (JCG)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
ARM Holdings (ARMH)- UBS Neutral » Buy
BT Group PLC (BT)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Suncor Energy (SU)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Convergys (CVG)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Popular Inc (BPOP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Bancorp (FBP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Ultratech (UTEK)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Crest Buy » Neutral
Time Warner (TWX)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Vulcan Materials (VMC)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
United Thera (UTHR)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold $101
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Noven Pharma (NOVN)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform $11 » $9
Omnicom (OMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Airgas (ARG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
CBS Corp (CBS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
News Corp (NWS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Walt Disney (DIS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
Orthofix (OFIX)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Calpine (CPN)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Acme Packet (APKT)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Acme Packet (APKT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Qimonda (QI)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Merck (MRK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AstraZeneca (AZN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Zions Bancorp (ZION)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Pacific Rim Mining (PMU)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
On2 Technologies (ONT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 8, 2008

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BIll Miller (video)

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 6, 2008

Bill Miller talks about Citibroup (C), Feddie Mac (FRE), Bear Sterns (BSC), Fannie Mae(FNM), Countrywide (CFC).

He made an interesting comment about this current market being similar to the early 80s to mid 90s,where he made a 50 fold return on FNM which at the time was carrying bad loans.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, none

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Sherwin Williams Wins in RI SC

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 1, 2008

Jane Genova reports

“In a unanimous opinion [4-0], the Rhode Island Supreme Court overturned the lead paint judgment against defendants Sherwin-Williams (SHW), NL Industries (NL) and Millennium Holdings. In addition, it upheld the judgment in favor of Atlantic Richfield, vacated the contempt citations against RI Attorney General Patrick Lynch, and recognized the validity of contingency agreements between the AG and outside counsel.”

Read decision:

script src=”http://www.valueinvestingnews.com/sites/all/scripts/externalvote.js” type=”text/javascript”>

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW

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More Berkowitz

Bruce talks about Leucadia (LUK), Americredit (ACF), AIG (AIG) and the banks. Also, he goes into Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Berkowitz has the correct look at Sears, not just a retailer but a collection of successful entities that when monetized (it is happening), will provide returns.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None

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Bruce Berlowitz on Wealth Track

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 30, 2008

Berkowitz has sold 1/2 of its energy holdings and is moving into health care…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Khosla on Biofuels

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 30, 2008

Vinod is putting his millions behinds his words…

With ethanol plays like Versasun (VSE), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) and Archer Daniel’s Midland (ADM) off highs, those investors might want to watch.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM

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Commodities

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 30, 2008

Some thoughts from the lake…..Dennis Gartman talks about commodities..

Gartman talks about oil (USO) and the demand destruction of it undergoing. He also talks about corn, wheat and the lost acreage of them due to the recent flooding.

One would think that food prices are going higher due to worldwide demand and weather and oil may crash short term. We sold our oil position a little while ago.

Oil is due for a rapid correction followed by a slow drift up. I think the easy money here has been made though.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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The Week's Best At VIN

A long list for the week away at Value Investing News

1. Buy ‘Em Back at Western Sizzlin’

(via www.circleofcompetenceblog.com)

Western Sizzlin’ announced a share buyback authorization today, which is terrific news for shareholders. In this article I explain why that make sense for WEST and all undervalued companies.

2. TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett’s Power Lunch Interview on “Exploding” Inflation

(via www.cnbc.com)

This is a transcript of Warren Buffett’s live interview with Becky Quick on CNBC’s Power Lunch, Wednesday, June 25, 2008 at 12p ET. Buffett tells Becky U.S. inflation is “exploding” and warns that the Federal Reserve must signal controlling prices is not a secondary concern.

3. Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond

(via www.contrarianvalueinvesting.com)

Want to get an MBA for $9? This is the book to get. Although not an easy read like other value investing books, Professor Greenwald and company provide an informative read that should have a place in every value investor’s library.

4. Investor Book Club #1

(via streetcapitalist.com)

I look at Losing My Virginity by Richard Branson, a book recommended by Mohnish Pabrai. Branson actually acts very similar to a value investor and employs a margin of safety in the businesses he starts, this is a great book.

5. Morningstar Investment Conference – 3

(via www.moderngraham.com)

Report on a breakout session called “Let’s Talk Bargains” with Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management and Susan Byrne of Westwood Holdings Group Ltd. at the Morningstar Investment Conference.

6. Morningstar Investment Conference – 2

(via www.moderngraham.com)

Notes from a breakout session called “Investing 501″ with Bill Bernstein at the Morningstar Investment Conference.

7. Morningstar Investment Conference – 1

(via www.moderngraham.com)

The first of a multipart series reporting on the Morningstar Investment Conference. This entry covered several comments made by Bob Torray of Torray Fund.

8. Mohnish Pabrai on Bloomberg – Getting Ready for Lunch with Buffett

(via www.bloomberg.com)

Mohnish Pabrai discusses his upcoming lunch with Warren Buffett, rates, fuel costs, India, and more.

9. Third Avenue Funds Second Quarter 2008 Shareholders Letter

(via www.thirdavenuefunds.com)

Marty Whitman shares his value investing insights in this latest letter. This master of distressed investing is taking advantage of the situations in the financial and bond insurer sectors.

10. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: CSX / TCI Court Documnents and Thoughts on “Disclosure”

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Ought everyone disclose?

11. Quality Systems – Outlook

(via ei-forum.com)

Following news that CEO Silverman resigned the stock dropped by almost 5%. Does this event change QSIIs numbers? No. This remains a strong business with a bright future operating in the right sector. Healthcare will continue to grow and QSII is in an ideal position to reap all potential gains.

12. Magic Formula Weekly Roundup 6/20/08

(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Weekly roundup of stocks moving in and out of the Magic Formula screen.

13. The Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX): An Interesting Alternative

(via amateurassetallocator.com)

The Permanent Portfolio likely deserves a place in your portfolio due to its diversification benefits and as a hedge against inflation.

14. How Low Can Gannett Go?

(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Can Gannett turn around it’s decreasing revenue, compressing margins, falling return on capital, and dropping stock price? An analysis of Gannett, the largest newspaper publisher in the U.S.

15. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: ESL / Autozone Agreement Filed with SEC

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

here is the agreement

16. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: More on Lampert’s AutoZone (AZO) Agreement

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Seems like there was more to than meets the eye here

17. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: More on Sears Holdings “Going Private”

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Will not happen

18. Buffett vs. Bernanke: The inflation showdown

(via money.cnn.com)

The billionaire investor says inflation is ‘exploding,’ but the Fed believes commodity price shocks should subside

19. Mosaic Chapter 11: Dhando! Summary

(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

A summary of chapter 11 of Mohnish Pabrai’s book, Mosaic: Perspectives on Investing. Dhando is all about buying wide moat businesses that generate tremendous cash.

20. Warren Buffett Tells CNBC U.S. Inflation is “Exploding”

(via www.cnbc.com)

Buffett talks about inflation, his charity lunch, and how he is a “spectator” only in the InBev Anheuser Busch takeover talks. The article includes a video of the interview.

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Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Tags buffett, SHLD

Articles

The Week’s Best At VIN

A long list for the week away at Value Investing News

1. Buy ‘Em Back at Western Sizzlin’

(via www.circleofcompetenceblog.com)

Western Sizzlin’ announced a share buyback authorization today, which is terrific news for shareholders. In this article I explain why that make sense for WEST and all undervalued companies.

2. TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett’s Power Lunch Interview on “Exploding” Inflation

(via www.cnbc.com)

3. Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond

(via www.contrarianvalueinvesting.com)

4. Investor Book Club #1

(via streetcapitalist.com)

5. Morningstar Investment Conference – 3

(via www.moderngraham.com)

6. Morningstar Investment Conference – 2

(via www.moderngraham.com)

Notes from a breakout session called “Investing 501″ with Bill Bernstein at the Morningstar Investment Conference.

7. Morningstar Investment Conference – 1

(via www.moderngraham.com)

The first of a multipart series reporting on the Morningstar Investment Conference. This entry covered several comments made by Bob Torray of Torray Fund.

8. Mohnish Pabrai on Bloomberg – Getting Ready for Lunch with Buffett

(via www.bloomberg.com)

Mohnish Pabrai discusses his upcoming lunch with Warren Buffett, rates, fuel costs, India, and more.

9. Third Avenue Funds Second Quarter 2008 Shareholders Letter

(via www.thirdavenuefunds.com)

Marty Whitman shares his value investing insights in this latest letter. This master of distressed investing is taking advantage of the situations in the financial and bond insurer sectors.

10. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: CSX / TCI Court Documnents and Thoughts on “Disclosure”

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Ought everyone disclose?

11. Quality Systems – Outlook

(via ei-forum.com)

12. Magic Formula Weekly Roundup 6/20/08

(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Weekly roundup of stocks moving in and out of the Magic Formula screen.

13. The Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX): An Interesting Alternative

(via amateurassetallocator.com)

The Permanent Portfolio likely deserves a place in your portfolio due to its diversification benefits and as a hedge against inflation.

14. How Low Can Gannett Go?

(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Can Gannett turn around it’s decreasing revenue, compressing margins, falling return on capital, and dropping stock price? An analysis of Gannett, the largest newspaper publisher in the U.S.

15. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: ESL / Autozone Agreement Filed with SEC

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

here is the agreement

16. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: More on Lampert’s AutoZone (AZO) Agreement

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Seems like there was more to than meets the eye here

17. Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: More on Sears Holdings “Going Private”

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Will not happen

18. Buffett vs. Bernanke: The inflation showdown

(via money.cnn.com)

The billionaire investor says inflation is ‘exploding,’ but the Fed believes commodity price shocks should subside

19. Mosaic Chapter 11: Dhando! Summary

(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

A summary of chapter 11 of Mohnish Pabrai’s book, Mosaic: Perspectives on Investing. Dhando is all about buying wide moat businesses that generate tremendous cash.

20. Warren Buffett Tells CNBC U.S. Inflation is “Exploding”

(via www.cnbc.com)

Buffett talks about inflation, his charity lunch, and how he is a “spectator” only in the InBev Anheuser Busch takeover talks. The article includes a video of the interview.

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Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Tags buffett, SHLD

Articles

Rhode Island SC Ruling Due Next Week?

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 27, 2008

Jane Genova Reports

RI SC RULING EXPECTED 6/1 or 6/2 – Informed sources indicate

Informed sources reported to me today that a ruling is expected from the Rhode Island Supreme Court on the the lead paint public nuisance appeal this coming Tuesday or Wednesday.

Those sources are anticipating a decision favorable to the three defendants Sherwin-Williams (SHW), NL Indusries (NL) and Millennium Holdings. How favorable is the issue. There could be a third trial rather than the whole enchilada being tossed.

We lead paint watchers are also very interested in the opinion of the RI SC on contingency, particularly in relation to the issue of separation of powers.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, none

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Blackrocks (BLK) Bob Doll

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 27, 2008

Since he has billions to invest, it bears listening to him..

Doll discusses the S&P, Oil (USO), the Fed, European Bankers, Speculation, Merrill Lynch (MER)

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Another Vacation

So headed out again this time for 10 days Saturday.

The family is heading to upstate New York to Lake Tuscarora for 10 days of fishing, campfires and nana time for the kids…

Last year we had no internet (or cell) access so I am not sure if we will this year on the lake. At any rate, even if we do, posting will be extremely limited if not non-existent, this is kiddie time. If anyone wants to be able to post in my absence, let me know and we can set something up. I have a handful of folks in mind….

My goal is to get through the following books.

I have started Einhorn’s and so far it is great……..

and

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