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MBIA & Abmac: Tilson Clarifies Position

Got an email from Whitney Tilson in which he clarified the apparent long position on his 13-F.

“The reason MBIA and Ambac show up as longs in our 13-F is that it can be hard to get the borrow on the short, so when we can get the borrow, we short more than we want, and then buy the stock long to bring the net short position down to the level we want. Then, every time we want to increase our short position, we don’t have to get the borrow — instead, we simply sell down the long position.”

Simply put, he adjust the positions portfolio weighting with the long side..

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Whitney Tilson and Bond Insurers (ABK), (MBI): Corrected

In the filing, T2 has a $176 thousand stake in Ambac and $388 thousand in MBIA.

Both are new holdings since the previous filing.

Tilson’s clarification:

“The reason MBIA and Ambac show up as longs in our 13-F is that it can be hard to get the borrow on the short, so when we can get the borrow, we short more than we want, and then buy the stock long to bring the net short position down to the level we want. Then, every time we want to increase our short position, we don’t have to get the borrow — instead, we simply sell down the long position.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading At VIN

The week’s best at Value Investing News

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David Einhorn on Wealth Track

You’ve got to like Einhorn. 25% a year since 1996…….p

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ValuePlays Most Read Posts for May

Here are the most read posts for May

1- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Leucadia Releases 13-F: Can you Spell Concentrated Portfolio?

2- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: NetFlix Beats Blockbuster Again (update with video)

3- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Circuit City On The Bankruptcy Express

4- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Warren is Everywhere, Why?

5- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: “Complete Turtle Trader” Book Review

6- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Phillip Morris Int. Tender Offer: Just How Dumb Does TRC Capital Think We Are??!!!??

7- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Lampert Reports Sallie Mae Stake

8- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: GE to Sell Appliance Unit, Lampert Interested?

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Seth Klarman Buys Borders

More big-time investor are taking stakes in Borders (BGP)

Baupost Group, a hedge fund run by deep value investor Seth Klarman, showed a 8.22% stake in (4,971,600 shares) as of the quarter ended 3/31/08. The firm did not show holdings in Borders at the quarter ended 12/31/07.


Baupost Group manages $7+ billion
and has returned approximately 20% annually since its inception. Klarman was in the first group of inductees to Alpha magazine’s Hedge Fund Hall of Fame.

Klarman is the author of “Margin of Safety”, one of the hardest finance books to track down today. Published in 1991, it is now out of print, and sells on Amazon and Ebay for over $1000. It is even one of the most-stolen library books, making it very difficult to find a copy to read.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Pat Dorsey's "Little Book" Review

I was sent a copy of Pat Dorsey’s “Little Book That Builds Wealth” for a review. Loved it.

Dorsey spend the bulk of the book talking about moats. What are they, how to spot them and what do fake ones look like.

Perhaps the most valuable lesson a potential shareholder can learn is what is a business moat and why does it matter.

Dorsey says: “Durable companies- that is, companies that have strong competitive advantages- are more valuable than companies that are at risk from going from hero to zero in a matter of months because they never had much of an advantage over their competition…… Companies with moats are more valuable than those without.”

He goes on the tell readers how to identify a and more importantly, how to recognize an advantage that is not enduring but temporary giving potential investors a “false sense of a moat”. He give great examples from the dot.com era as evidence of what seemed at the time like an enduring advantage but proved fleeting in the end, leaving shareholders crushed.

Chapters 8 and 9 are the key ones and they talk about “eroding moats” in businesses and how to actually find a business with a moat. In both chapters he gives concrete examples to illustrate what he is talking about.

There are other chapters such as valuation tools, what does management really matter, and when to sell. for me though, all of those chapter are secondary to the identification of a moat in a business. Without that, the other lesson and tools seem to me to be secondary as those calculations, if based on a flawed initial premise mean nothing.

The book is worth reading more than once if for no other reason the lessons in it are so important, it behooves investor to really understand them.

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Pat Dorsey’s "Little Book" Review

I was sent a copy of Pat Dorsey’s “Little Book That Builds Wealth” for a review. Loved it.

Dorsey spend the bulk of the book talking about moats. What are they, how to spot them and what do fake ones look like.

Perhaps the most valuable lesson a potential shareholder can learn is what is a business moat and why does it matter.

Dorsey says: “Durable companies- that is, companies that have strong competitive advantages- are more valuable than companies that are at risk from going from hero to zero in a matter of months because they never had much of an advantage over their competition…… Companies with moats are more valuable than those without.”

He goes on the tell readers how to identify a and more importantly, how to recognize an advantage that is not enduring but temporary giving potential investors a “false sense of a moat”. He give great examples from the dot.com era as evidence of what seemed at the time like an enduring advantage but proved fleeting in the end, leaving shareholders crushed.

Chapters 8 and 9 are the key ones and they talk about “eroding moats” in businesses and how to actually find a business with a moat. In both chapters he gives concrete examples to illustrate what he is talking about.

There are other chapters such as valuation tools, what does management really matter, and when to sell. for me though, all of those chapter are secondary to the identification of a moat in a business. Without that, the other lesson and tools seem to me to be secondary as those calculations, if based on a flawed initial premise mean nothing.

The book is worth reading more than once if for no other reason the lessons in it are so important, it behooves investor to really understand them.

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Sears 10-Q

So, Sears (SHLD) released its 10-Q today and there is nothing really that was not disclosed yesterday save 1 item.

On page 7, there is a $23 million “investment in equity securities” classified as “Level 1 inputs—unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities that we have the ability to access. An active market for the asset or liability is one in which transactions for the asset or liability occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide ongoing pricing information. “


Here is the filing:

from the annual report, as of Feb. 2 “We purchased 5.3 million shares of common stock of Restoration Hardware, Inc. (“Restoration”), a specialty retailer of hardware, bathware, furniture, lighting, textiles, accessories and gifts during 2007. Our investment of $30 million represents an ownership interest of 13.67% of Restoration’s total outstanding shares.”

Based on Restoration’s (RSTO) share price on 5/2, the date of the valuation on the 10-Q Sear’s still holds its Restoration stake.

It also appears that Sears may end up being able to take their buyout proposal directly to shareholders and the current buyout is being contested in court

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None

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Friday's Links

Chou, Obama / McCain, Rachael Ray, Master’s

– Need to look into this guy…

– Barak, you just need to avoid this subject… you cannot win here…

– We are officially pathetic

Always good

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Friday’s Links

Chou, Obama / McCain, Rachael Ray, Master’s

– Need to look into this guy…

– Barak, you just need to avoid this subject… you cannot win here…

– We are officially pathetic

Always good

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Bankrate (RATE)- Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Autodesk (ADSK)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
SunTrust Banks (STI)- Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
Orbitz (OWW)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Expedia (EXPE)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
MFA Mortgage (MFA)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
Flagstone Reinsurance (FSR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
American Axle (AXL)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Applied Signal (APSG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Thor Industries (THO)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Drew Industries (DW)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Men’s Wearhouse (MW)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
CEMEX S.A. (CX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Chico’s FAS (CHS)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Vivus (VVUS)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Bankrate (RATE)- Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Autodesk (ADSK)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
SunTrust Banks (STI)- Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
Orbitz (OWW)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Expedia (EXPE)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
MFA Mortgage (MFA)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
Flagstone Reinsurance (FSR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
American Axle (AXL)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Applied Signal (APSG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Thor Industries (THO)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Drew Industries (DW)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Men’s Wearhouse (MW)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
CEMEX S.A. (CX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Chico’s FAS (CHS)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Vivus (VVUS)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Friday


FRIDAY’S PICKS
Jeff Macke recommends getting long J. Crew (JCG) $46.91

Guy Adami prefers Tesoro (TSO) $23.26

Karen Finerman likes Citigroup (C0 $22.04

Pete Najarian thinks Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $52.31 is a buy.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS
Guy Adami recommends Celgene (CELG) $58.53 CLOSE $60.555 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers WellPoint (WLP) $55.48 CLOSE $56.55 GAIN

Pete Najarian suggests Amylin (AMLN) $30.98 CLOSE $32.38 GAIN

Jeff Macke thinks Yahoo (YHOO) $27.16 is a sell. CLOSE $27.07 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 41-34-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 43-36
Pete Najarian= 39-37
Karen Finerman= 38-31-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Lampert ,AutoNation (AN), Another Buy

I finally get to change the disclosure at the end of this now daily post. In a just released SEC filing Sears’ (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert upped his AutoNation (AN) stake to 71.245 million shares or 39.9% of the total.

Combined with my purchase of AutoNation shares today, Lampert and I effectively have control of, well, 39.9% and change (small change) of the company giving us a controlling interest in the nations largest auto retailer….

So this is what power feels like…… 🙂

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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