ValuePlays

Upgrades
Diamond Foods (DMND)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- Lazard Capital Sell » Hold
Qualcomm (QCOM)- Am Tech/JSA Research (old) Neutral » Buy
Third Wave (TWTI)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Airmedia (AMCN)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Ruddick Corp (RDK)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Cal Dive Intl (DVR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
NBTY Inc (NTY)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
DaVita (DVA )- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Cash America (CSH)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Pearson Plc (PSO)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Nokia (NOK)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Spartech Corp (SEH)- First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
Tesoro (TSO)- Caris & Company Above Average » Below Average
Sunoco (SUN)- Caris & Company Above Average » Below Average
Holly (HOC)- Caris & Company Above Average » Below Average
Frontier Oil (FTO)- Caris & Company Above Average » Below Average
Valero Energy (VLO)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Western Refining (WNR)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
DivX (DIVX)- Barrington Research Outperform » Mkt Perform
Delta Air Lines (DAL)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
AMR Corp (AMR)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Alaska Air (ALK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
US Airways (LCC)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Northwest Airlines (NWA)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Pinnacle (PNK)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Boyd Gaming (BYD)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Lowe’s (LOW)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Underperform
Genomic Health (GHDX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Kroger (KR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Level 3 (LVLT)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Park-Ohio (PKOH)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Whitney Holding (WTNY)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
KLA-Tencor (KLAC)- Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Permian Basin Royalty Tr. (PBT)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Werner Enterprises (WERN)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Credit Suisse (CS)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
UBS AG (UBS)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Liberty Media Capital (LCAPA)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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Thursday’s Picks
Tim Seymour recommends Chunghwa Telecom Co (CHT) $24.47

Guy Adami prefers Crocs (CROX) $20.59

Karen Finerman likes Microsoft (MSFT) $28.63

Pete Najarian thinks Dupont (DD) $46.58 is a buy.

Wednesday’s Results
Tim Seymour recommends Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $10.52 Close $10.28 LOSS

Guy Adami, Karen Finerman and Pete Najarian all say Goldman Sachs (GS) $163.07 Close $163.01 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 17-13
Tim Seymore= 8-6
Guy Adami= 17-18
Pete Najarian= 16-15
Karen Finerman= 16-18-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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In a just released SEC filing, Icahn, who owns 6.4% of the stock, notified Motorola (MOT) management the gloves are now off. He is now urging his own Board nominations to shareholders.

From the filing:

“The election of the Nominees requires the affirmative vote of a plurality
of the votes cast, assuming a quorum is present or otherwise represented at the
Annual Meeting. As a result, your vote is extremely important. We urge you to
mark, sign, date and return the enclosed GOLD proxy card to vote FOR the
election of the Nominees.

WE URGE YOU NOT TO SIGN ANY PROXY CARD SENT TO YOU BY MOTOROLA. IF YOU HAVE
ALREADY DONE SO, YOU MAY REVOKE YOUR PROXY BY DELIVERING A LATER-DATED GOLD
PROXY CARD IN THE ENCLOSED POSTAGE-PAID ENVELOPE, OR BY VOTING IN PERSON AT THE
ANNUAL MEETING. SEE “VOTING PROCEDURES” AND “PROXY PROCEDURES” BELOW.

If you have any questions or require any assistance in executing your proxy, please call:

Innisfree M&A Incorporated
Stockholders call toll-free: (877) 825-8772
Banks and Brokers call collect: (212) 750-5833″

Rather, says Icahn, “VOTE FOR THE NOMINEES BY USING THE ENCLOSED GOLD PROXY TO VOTE TODAY–BY TELEPHONE, BY INTERNET, OR BY SIGNING, DATING AND RETURNING THE GOLD PROXY CARD IN THE POSTAGE-PAID ENVELOPE PROVIDED TO YOU.”

Who are they?
“On January 31, 2008, Icahn Partners, Icahn Master and High River delivered
a letter to Motorola, notifying Motorola that these Icahn Parties nominate and
will seek to elect at the Annual Meeting – Frank Biondi, Jr., William R.
Hambrecht, Lionel C. Kimerling and Keith Meister as members of the board of
directors of Motorola.”

Icahn’s Proposals:
“PROPOSAL 2 – RATIFICATION OF APPOINTMENT OF INDEPENDENT REGISTERED PUBLIC
ACCOUNTING FIRM

At the Annual Meeting, the Stockholders will be asked to vote to ratify the
selection of KPMG LLP as Motorola’s independent registered public accounting
firm. Motorola’s Board of Directors recommended a vote for this proposal. The
Participants intend to vote, and recommend that you vote, for this proposal.

VOTING ON PROPOSAL 2

The accompanying GOLD proxy card will be voted in accordance with your
instruction on such card. You may vote for or vote against, or abstain from
voting on Proposal 2 described above by marking the proper box on the GOLD proxy
card.

PROPOSAL 3 – SHAREHOLDER PROPOSAL RE: SAY-ON-PAY

At the Annual Meeting, the Stockholders will be asked to vote on a
shareholder proposal to ask Motorola’s Board of Directors to adopt a policy that
shareholders be given the opportunity to vote on an advisory management
resolution at each annual meeting to ratify the compensation of the named
executive officers of Motorola set forth in Motorola’s proxy statement’s Summary
Compensation Table (the “STC”) and the accompanying disclosure of material
factors provided to understand the STC. Motorola’s Board of Directors
recommended a vote against this proposal. The Participants intend to vote, and
recommend that you vote, for this proposal.

VOTING ON PROPOSAL 3

The accompanying GOLD proxy card will be voted in accordance with your
instruction on such card. You may vote for or vote against, or abstain from
voting on Proposal 3 described above by marking the proper box on the GOLD proxy
card.

PROPOSAL 4 – SHAREHOLDER PROPOSAL RE: RECOUP UNEARNED MANAGEMENT BONUSES

At the Annual Meeting, the Stockholders will be asked to vote on a
shareholder proposal to request Motorola’s Board of Directors to adopt a bylaw
(or, if such a bylaw were absolutely impossible, a policy), for Motorola to
recoup all unearned incentive bonuses or other incentive payments to all senior
executives to the extent that their corresponding performance targets were later
reasonably determined to have not been achieved or resulted from error(s).
Motorola’s Board of Directors recommended a vote against this proposal. The
Participants intend to vote, and recommend that you vote, for this proposal.

VOTING ON PROPOSAL 4

The accompanying GOLD proxy card will be voted in accordance with your
instruction on such card. You may vote for or vote against, or abstain from
voting on Proposal 4 described above by marking the proper box on the GOLD proxy
card.

PROPOSAL 5 – SHAREHOLDER PROPOSAL RE: A GLOBAL SET OF CORPORATE STANDARDS AT
MOTOROLA

At the Annual Meeting, the Stockholders will be asked to vote on a
shareholder proposal to request Motorola’s Board of Directors to review and
amend, where applicable, Motorola’s policies related to human rights that guide
its international and U.S. operations. Motorola’s Board of Directors recommended
a vote against this proposal. The Participants intend to abstain from voting on
this proposal and make no recommendation as to this proposal.

VOTING ON PROPOSAL 5

The accompanying GOLD proxy card will be voted in accordance with your
instruction on such card. You may vote for or vote against, or abstain from
voting on Proposal 5 described above by marking the proper box on the GOLD proxy
card. ”

Hard to bet against Icahn and selling some $10 puts may be a nice way to profit from it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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$1 over the counter drugs, Waxman, Tap water, Disney (DIS)

– Kmart is offering a $1 price on certain OTC drugs

– Henry Waxman looked like an idiot grilling Countrywide’s (CFC) CEO Angelo Mozillo, another voice here agrees.

– Great… another reason to pay for water…

– Are they going after the Hedonism crowd?

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I missed this when it aired but it is well worth watching…

See it here:

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Upgrades
Global Sources (GSOL)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Genitope (GTOP)- Brean Murray Sell » Hold
Level 3 (LVLT)- Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Chico’s (FAS)- CHS Citigroup Sell » Hold
Aeropostale (ARO)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)- Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Wells Fargo (WFC)- Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Cepheid (CPHD)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Riverbed Technology (RVBD)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
American Commercial Lines (ACLI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
United Thera (UTHR)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Select Comfort (SCSS)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Air Tran Holdings (AAI)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Phase Forward (PFWD )- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
FLIR Systems (FLIR)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
PeopleSupport (PSPT)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Medcath (MDTH)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Pzena (PZN)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)- Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral
Weyerhaeuser (WY)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Marvel Enterprises (MVL)- Janco Partners Accumulate » Mkt Perform
Keryx Biopharma (KERX )- Punk, Ziegel & Co Buy » Accumulate
US Bancorp (USB)-Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Bank of America (BAC)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Cabot Micro (CCMP)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
MSC Industrial (MSM)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Superior Well Services (SWSI)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Applied Industrial (AIT)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Moody’s (MCO)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Underweight
WellPoint (WLP)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Coventry Health Care (CVH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Charter Comm (CHTR)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Northwest Airlines (NWA)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
AMR Corp (AMR)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
WellPoint (WLP)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Deerfield Triarc Capital (DFR)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Texas Instruments (TXN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Citrix Systems (CTXS)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
VeriSign (VRSN)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Keryx Biopharma (KERX)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
WellPoint (WLP)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cameco (CCJ)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Anglo American (AAUK)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral

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GE’s(GE) CEO Jeff Immelt announced today he bought $2 million worth of GE stock today at $32.70 and$33 a share.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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It looks like Leucadia’a (LUK) investment in AmeriCredit (ACF) was a wise one. Based on the company’s history, we ought not be surprised.

On Tuesday, ACF said delinquency and gross charge-off rates in its subprime trusts improved in February, while net charge-offs increased by 1.1 percent month-over-month. The results are showing a seasonal improvement and unlike its mortgage brethren, results are not showing deterioration.

Now, charge-offs are rising and one would expect that to continue although I would expect the ultimate pain to be below the mortgage industry for the simple reason that folks can walk away from a home and move into an apartment, they in most cases need their cars to get to work.

How much of a earnings deterioration should we expect? In 2007 (ending June) they earned $2.73 a share, up from $2.09 in 2006. In the first half of 2008 to date they have earned $.34 cents a share vs $1.28 in the same period last year.

Assuming the same general trend the second half, expect EPS to be approx. $1 a share for 2008. Now, potential ACF value investors may get a beneficial calendar anomaly here. All expectations are for a second half 2008 recovery in the general economy. That coincides with Q1 and Q2 2009 for ACF. While 2008 got caught perfectly for the negative events of the year, 2009 looks to be positioned perfectly for the recovery.

This means that this years expected disappointment may be met with out-sized improvement next year. If they can just match 2007 performance, the stock currently trades at 4.3 times those earnings. Matching those earnings ought to be a bit easier in 2009 because a lower cost of capital vs 2006 will give a boost to margins as borrower rates ought to remain a bit elevated. Should the economy lag into 2009, I would still expect a significant improvement over the $1 this year.

Here is the company’s latest review, done in March.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Here are the results of the latest Fed auction.

On March 10, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.800%

Total propositions submitted: $92.595 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.85

Number of bidders: 82

The 2.8% is a dramatic decline from the 3.01% results of the February auction. To date this auction has given concrete guidance to future Fed decisions regarding Fed Funds.

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Blog Roll, Carlos Slim, Buy Banks, Another call to buy banks..

– Not sure if you have seen this, but TheDeal.com has a nice “Blog Roll” they do, although they seem to not include actual bloggers but blogs from MSM. Maybe that will change?

– Could the world’s 2nd richest man buy Sprint?

– A call to purchase banks.

– Buy, buy, buy

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