Categories
Articles

The Reason Lampert wants Restoration?

Perhaps this little nugget is the reason for Sears Holdings (SHLD) interest in Restoration (RSTO).

Let’s ignore the store traffic and start with the mail order division (think Lands End)..

Third quarter net revenues increased $16.6 million compared to the year ago period, primarily driven by growth in the Company’s Direct-to-Customer segment. Direct-to-Customer revenues were $97.2 million and accounted for 56% of total revenues, up from 36% of total revenues in the third quarter of last year. The increase reflects growth in catalog and page circulation, and a continuing shift in revenues from the Stores segment to the Direct-to-Customer segment resulting from management’s multi-channel merchandising and marketing strategies and operational changes implemented in the second quarter of 2007. Revenues in the Stores segment were $76.5 million in the third quarter of 2007.

So, Lampert is offering about $262 million for a company with more than $150 million in owned inventory, $1.7 million in cash, $8.5 million in receivables and a mail order division with profits of about $32 million a year that grew 71% over last year. If we take those numbers alone, Lampert will receive $192 million back for his purchase price almost immediately.

By merging Restorations back end operations with Land’s End, profitability at the segment will jump. One also has to consider the added benefits to both catalogues by cross selling merchandise in them. Perhaps a combined Land’s End / Restoration issue?

Of Monday’s results, Gary Friedman, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Weakening consumer spending and traffic levels continued to affect our business in the third quarter, particularly higher ticket durable categories. Revenue did not achieve our expectations, driving substantially all of our larger than anticipated operating loss in the quarter. While we are encouraged by some of the early holiday trends in our business, we remain cautious due to the macro economic environment, which has proven highly challenging for the home furnishings sector this year.”

The same song has been sung by all housing related retailers this fall like home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW) and Sears itself.

Lampert will end up getting Restoration for essentially nothing. Sound familiar? Is restoration a huge deal that will make a huge difference in the $53 billion in annual sales Sears generates? No. But Lampert is picking up a quality brand name at a song that will generate positive results and will add to the current brand base Lampert has .

True, Restoration’s results sucked and well, that is why Lampert can get it so cheap. It is called “value” investing for a reason.

Donate to the ValuePlays Project for KIVA





 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Monday’s Links

WSJ vs NYT, WSJ hires, Media, Ackman

– Murdoch has spent the past ten years watching the NY Times mock his Fox network. Now that he has the Wall St. Journal, I would bet a testicle he crushes them…..

– Step one? Bring in the dogs

– It would seem it took two years but the media now finally understands the lead paint issue.

– Of all these going public, this may just the the ONE I would take a serious look st.

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

CompUSA: Bad News for Best Buy and Circuit City

It is one thing to have competition no one goes to, it is another to have people then rush to it when they give things away. This may put a dent in both Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City’s (CC) holidays.

In announcing the closing, CompUSA announced it will be offering “attractive bargains on computer and electronic products as part of store closing sales and its 103 retail stores will remain open through the holidays.

Earlier this year they closed over half of their U.S. retail stores in a bid to streamline operations and bolster margins at top-performing stores. Guess it did not work.

Long term this will benefit all electronics retailers like the one mentioned about and even Wal-Mart (WMT) and Sears Holdings (SHLD), for this holiday season though, it is not good news.

In order to rid itself of inventory, undoubtedly CompUSA will be selling merchandise below cost. It is a move unlikely to be replicated by other retailers and this will affect sales during the next 4 weeks in the 103 markets that have the CompUSA locations.

Will it break the holiday season for other retailers? No. It does have the definite possibility of making a good one average or an average one poor though. If anything good comes of we may get a pullback in one of the names as folks over react to the news and get a nice entry price for shares (except Circuit City).

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Retail Web Traffic: Still Wal-Mart’s Domain

Here are the stats from the week ending 12/1. I have eliminated the online only retailers. This is just bricks and clicks combos.

1. www.walmart.com (WMT) = 8.3%
2. www.target.com (TGT) =5.64%
3. www.bestbuy.com (BBY) = 3.88%
4. www.circuitcity.com (CC) =3.11%
5. www.toysrus.com =2.59%
6. www.jcpenney.com (JCP) =2.56%
7. www.sears.com (SHLD) =2.44%
8. www.kohls.com (KSS) =1.38%
9. www.macys.com (M) =1.33%
10. www.kmart.com (SHLD) =1.29%

The Sears / Kmart combination places it in a solid 4th just a click or two behind Best Buy. Wal-Mart still is crushing everyone else and this is the reason for the recent news we have seen. A casual look at the parking lots of both retailers in the area show a slight edge to Wal-Mart on most days.

The web traffic is the reason Wal-Mart investors are so optimistic ans Target ones are left wondering “what is going on”? I used the Wal-Mart “site to store” program and it could not have been any easier (not to mention the huge savings I had on the items we bought). The best I can tell from their site, Target has no such program.

Wal-Mart also has a huge advertising push for the program now and based on the results to date, one would be hard pressed to day it has not been an overwhelming success. Got to give it to the folks in Bentonville, they nailed it on this one.

A surprise is Circuit City. They are a constant top 5 site. If this Holiday season it not a success for them, it simply means they did not convert the eyes to buys and that it a pricing issue, pure and simple. Should that be the case, time for CEO Mr. Philip J. Schoonover to be asked to “pursue other opportunities”. The folks have been there, you need to sell them.

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommended buying SPDR (SPY). Open $150.94 Close $150.91 LOSS

Guy Adami liked Intel (INTC). Open $27.98 Close $27.73 LOSS

Tim Seymour preferred Stillwater Mining Company (SWC). Open $10.98 Close $10.58 LOSS

Pete Najarian said Apple (AAPL) is a buy. Open $189.95 Close $194.30 GAIN

Guy Adami= 51-41 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 40-38 = 51%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 33-26 = 55%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Oceanfreight OCNF Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Shaw Group SGR SMH Capital Sell » Neutral
Synopsys SNPS Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Kenexa KNXA Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Activision ATVI Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Align Tech ALGN Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
National Semi NSM JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Advance Auto AAP JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
AutoZone AZO JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Yingli Green Energy YGE Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
JC Penney JCP Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Sunpower SPWR Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Jabil Circuit JBL Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Cintas CTAS Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
Hecla Mining HL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
CIBC CM BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Olympic Steel ZEUS Longbow Buy » Neutral
Napster NAPS Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
American Express AXP Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Smith & Wesson SWHC Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Diodes DIOD Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Intersil ISIL Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lennar LEN Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Target TGT Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Claymont Steel PLTE CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Energy East EAS Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
McAfee MFE Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

ValuePlays KIVA Project

We spend a lot of time talking about millionaires and billionaires and casually throwing hundred billions of dollars figure around like its coffee money. It is time to take some of that effort and contribute to folks who, for a couple hundred bucks, we can change a life.

You can donate here:





Here is how I am doing it:

– I have created a lender page at KIVA.org

– All donations may be private or public. All public donations will be recognized to the extent the contributor wants. A post will be given any links to blogs or sites will also be given should the contributor want.

– Updates on loans given will be done here and can be verified on the lender page

– ValuePlays maintains sole discretion as to who receives a loan although any and all ideas are welcome.

– Correspondence from loan receivers will be shared with readers.

– By donating to our KIVA project, you acknowledge you are donating free of any conditions or expectation of return of funds. We are trying to change many lives here, not act as a short term lender.

– A full accounting of donations and loans may be found here

– Should you wish to do this all yourself, you may create your own lender page at KIVA.org

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

This Weeks Dividend Hikes

Nucor Corp-(NUE) = 172%
Stryker Corp-(SYK)= 50.0%
Range Resources Corp-(RRC) = 33%
Dun & Bradstreet-(DNB) = 20%
Ecolab Inc-(ECL)=13.0%

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

This Week’s Insider Buys


Pep Boys Manny Moe & Jack (PBY)= $7,420,351
Central Garden & Pet Co (CENT) = $5,159,017
Patriot Coal Corp (PCX )= $3,292,110
Susser Holdings Corp (SUSS) = $2,926,300
Scientific Games Corp (SGMS )= $2,296,028
Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) = $2,189,058
First Advantage Bancorp (FABK) = $2,025,206
Orange 21 Inc (ORNG) = $1,848,582
Dillard S Inc (DDS)= $1,751,940

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Value Investing News: Top Stories

Here are the week’s favorite reader posts at Value Investing News

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Links

Santa and Wall St., France iPhone’s, Sears and Analysts, Hillary’s revenge

– Check this out. Christmas Spirit anyone?

– iPhone are not selling very well in France.

– Max Olson does a great job looking into Sears and an analyst call.

– She never forgets.…..

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Barry Ritholtz on Wall Strip

Check out this video of Barry. Painfully lucid and honest..Great job…

Barry comments on the Fed, Countrywide (CFC), Alternative Energy and more

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Study Finds Ethanol IMPROVES Fuel Economy

Boy this is going to through a wrench into the “ethanol isn’t the answer” crowd’s number one argument.

The University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) and the Minnesota Center for Automotive Research (MnCAR) conducted the research. All of the vehicles tested got better mileage with ethanol blends than the ethanol’s energy content would predict, and three out of four actually traveled farther on a mid-level ethanol blend than on unleaded gasoline. I am sure the doubters are instantly wondering what arcane vehicles were used to game the results. The cars? A Toyota Camry, a Ford Fusion and two Chevrolet Impalas, one flex-fuel and one non-flex-fuel.
Some of the most purchased vehicles today.

U.S. Senator John Thune (R-SD)said of the results, “I applaud the American Coalition for Ethanol for taking action and studying the impact of intermediate blends of ethanol. I am encouraged by the findings of this study, which should benefit the federal regulatory process for approving higher blends of ethanol.”

Brett Hulsey, president of Better Environmental Solutions said, “These studies show that moderate 20-30 percent ethanol blends can reduce air pollution, improve gas mileage, and save drivers money in the most popular cars on the road today. Moderate ethanol blends are homegrown in America, can be delivered with existing pumps to current vehicles, and cost less than gasoline. Ethanol lowers CO2 emissions 20 percent from gasoline, making it one of our most effective greenhouse gas reduction programs currently in place.”

Here is the best part. In addition to improved fuel economy findings, the study provides strong evidence that standard, non-flex-fuel vehicles can operate on ethanol blends beyond E10. The three non-flex-fuel vehicles tested operated up to E65 before any engine fault codes were displayed.

Emissions results for the ethanol blends were favorable for nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and nonmethane organic gases, showing an especially significant reduction in CO2 emissions for each vehicle’s “optimal” ethanol blend (E20 for the flex-fuel Chevy, E30 for the Toyota and Ford, E40 for the non-flex Chevy).

KEY FINDINGS

Ethanol’s energy content was not found to be a direct predictor of fuel economy. A fuel’s energy content in British Thermal Units (Btu) is current standard practice for estimating fuel economy, a method that, because of ethanol’s lower Btu value, leads to estimates of decreased fuel economy in proportion to the percentage of ethanol in the fuel blend.

— This research, however, did not find ethanol’s Btu content to be a direct predictor of fuel economy. All four vehicles tested exhibited better fuel economy with the ethanol blends than the Btu-value estimates predicted.

E20 and E30 ethanol blends outperformed unleaded gasoline in fuel economy tests for certain autos. Contrary to Btu-based estimates of fuel economy for ethanol blends, three of the four vehicles tested achieved their highest fuel efficiency not on gasoline, but on an ethanol blend. Mid-level blends of ethanol E20 (20% ethanol, 80% gasoline) and E30 (30% ethanol, 70% gasoline) offered the best fuel economy in these tests.

— E30 offered better fuel economy than gasoline (a 1% increase) in both the Toyota and the Ford.

— E20 offered better fuel economy than gasoline (a 15% increase) in the flex-fuel Chevrolet.

Here is the funny thing. I have looked for an actual study on ethanols mpg claims and have yet to find one. Everything I have found simple says that based on the BTU of the products, this is how it will perform vs gas. Did anyone actually do a test before these claims were thrown around to become “accepted fact”?

I had an interesting email back and forth with a Sunoco employee this past week who harped on this very topic. She said that making Detroit give us better mpg was the answer, not ethanol. They are but the new levels will not bew in full force until 2022. Really want to wait that long? Me either. I guess I would have to say, doesn’t this study prove ethanol does just that? When you consider you get the added kicker of a 20% instant reduction is oil use due to the 20% ethanol blend, isn’t this the perfect answer?

for ethanol producers like ADM (ADM), The Andersons (ANDE), Verasun (VSE), and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) who have seen shares stagnate or tumble the past year as ethanol’s critics have gained considerable traction, this study ought to light a fire under their prospective PR and R&D departments to get the word out and continue the research on other vehicles.

Ethanol is not the “only” answer to our dependence on oil. It is however, the “only” one we can do today on a massive scale that will actually make a difference.

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Fall Clean-Up At Dow?

Now that I have had time to digest Dow Chemical’s (DOW) move on Wednesday, something just keeps popping up in my head.

Have you ever done a reorganization of your home or even a room in it? What is the first thing you do? Get rid of the stuff you really do not use that much or need anymore. This is what I just cannot get past with Dow.

After about a year of predicting CEO Andrew Liveris had no major acquisition or merger plans, I think I am changing my tune.

Now, Dow just reduced its workforce by 2.3% and will save $180 million a year with the businesses it is shuttering. More importantly, they have also freed up millions in capital to be deployed elsewhere more profitably. This is where it gets good.

Liveris and Dow have made no secret of divesting away from the cyclicality of their commodities business. What would be the most effective way of doing it? How about using the very same strategy they have been using for the past year? Selling chunk of this business to outsiders and placing them into the Joint Venture (JV) category.
This would provide Dow billions of dollars instantly to be deployed in buying some specialty chemical makers without impairing the balance sheet (another Liveris prerequisite for any acquisition). Without having to use debt or stock to make a major purchase, it would also settle nicely into Liveris requirement of being accredive to earnings.

It also would allow Dow to benefit from the commodities business through the JV’s. while an erratic business, it is still very profitable when it earnings are on the upswing.

Who would buy the commodity business? There are a host of developing nations (Asia, Middle East & South America) that Dow already has JV’s with that would love to have the businesses if for no other reason than to secure a supply of the primary product they produce, plastics.

Do I think Liveris has a “for sale” sign on the company? No. I do think he is in the process of positioning it to make a major move very soon.

I expect the commodity sale into a JV to be announced after the new year and a merger or major purchase to be announced at the latest by the end of February.

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Children’s Place PLCE Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
CAI Intl CAP William Blair Mkt Perform » Outperform
Ryder System R Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
VeraSun Energy VSE SMH Capital Sell » Neutral
Douglas Emmett DEI Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Genentech DNA Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
H.B. Fuller FUL KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Aggressive Buy
Optium OPTM Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Comstock CRK Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
PDL BioPharma PDLI Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

DOWNGRADES
Innovative Solutions ISSC Northland Securities Outperform » Under Perform
Genentech DNA Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
Zumiez ZUMZ Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Talisman Energy TLM BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Forest City Enterprises FCE.A Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Maguire Properties MPG Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Parkway Prop PKY Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Corp Office Props OFC Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Genentech DNA Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Entercom ETM Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
ANSYS ANSS Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Digital River DRIV Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

 Subscribe in a reader