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Sears Holdings Ups Ante for Restoration

The key paragraph here in the letter filed today from Sears Holdings (SHLD) is the last one where it calls out management and the board of Restoration (RSTO) and states that “as your largest stockholder, we are concerned by certain aspects of the management and director-led buyout.”

Dear Mr. Hemmig:

We are disappointed that our numerous requests to receive confidential information have not yet been granted by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Special Committee”) of Restoration Hardware, Inc. (the “Company”). As you know, we have sought such information to enable us to determine whether to submit a binding proposal to acquire the Company on terms superior to the insider buyout contemplated by the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Current Merger Agreement”), dated as of November 8, 2007, among the Company, Home Holdings, LLC, and Home Merger Sub, Inc.

As you know we have been discussing the terms of a confidentiality agreement with you and your advisors and in this regard you have asked us to provide you with a proposal to acquire the Company. While we do not understand your requirement that we submit such a proposal prior to providing us with due diligence information during the “go shop” period, we are prepared to inform you that, based on the public information currently available to us, we would be prepared to enter into an agreement to offer your stockholders $6.75 per share in cash via tender offer. We would contemplate entering into a merger agreement on terms substantially similar to the Current Merger Agreement, modified as necessary to accommodate the tender offer structure and with a lower, more reasonable break-up fee than contained in the Current Merger Agreement.

We believe that this proposal, if agreed, would provide a compelling opportunity for your stockholders to realize significant value for their shares in an all cash transaction. The structure of our proposal would enable all of your stockholders to realize value for their shares sooner with less execution and other risk than the transaction contemplated by the Current Merger Agreement. Accordingly, we believe that the Special Committee should as soon as practicable designate Sears Holdings Corporation and its subsidiaries as “Excluded Parties,” as defined in the Current Merger Agreement and should exempt the transactions contemplated by our proposal, including the tender offer, from Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law.

As noted above, our proposal is based solely on publicly available information (including the projections contained in your August 30 press release but not including the results of your most recent quarter, which we expect to be announced shortly), and would require access to the due diligence information we have been seeking. To that end, we again request that you allow us to enter into a confidentiality agreement with the Company on terms permissible under the Current Merger Agreement. Moreover, as you have requested we would be willing to agree to a customary “standstill” provision in such confidentiality agreement, subject to the exception we have discussed with you and your advisors which would enable us to commence a tender offer for all of the shares of the Company only at a price greater than that offered pursuant to the Current Merger Agreement.

We believe that providing us with information and the opportunity to offer all stockholders more consideration than they would receive pursuant to the Current Merger Agreement would be in their best interest. As your largest stockholder, we would similarly encourage you to provide this “superior tender offer” exception to other persons, if any, who might also be interested in receiving confidential information in order to submit a superior proposal, whether as part of a “process” or otherwise.

Additionally, as your largest stockholder, we are concerned by certain aspects of the management and director-led buyout. We note in this regard that you entered into a confidentiality agreement with the private equity leader of the insider group on July 20, 2007 and apparently have been focused exclusively on the insider deal since that time rather than exploring our known interest (first expressed to you in June of this year and repeatedly reiterated). Notwithstanding our known interest, you did not provide us with either guidance or information which could potentially have enabled us to submit a superior proposal to the insider deal in advance of its execution. Our concerns have been increased by the delays we’ve encountered during the “go shop” period which have served to further exacerbate the procedural, contractual advantages (including break-up fees, match rights, and new change of control benefits) and informational superiority which the insider group enjoys.

We hope that you will recognize the benefits of a transaction along the lines that we have proposed and quickly grant us access to the information we have requested as we believe that this would be in the best interests of the Company, its stockholders, customers and employees. We stand ready and willing to complete this transaction quickly, and look forward to doing so.
Sincerely,

/s/ William C. Crowley

Now, it should also be noted that Sears upped its offer from $4 an share to $6.75 a share. Sears, being the largest shareholder (double that of the next largest shareholder) here does have management in a precarious situation. I would bet Lampert has been buying more shares recently (or soon will be) and will up his ownership percentage. At that point, what management wants to do could become essentially irrelevant

One has to think management is stonewalling Sears in order to keep their jobs since they are the one trying to buy the company currently. If Lampert gets control of more shares, it will become a moot point. Currently share trade about 25 cents over Lampert’s offer price indicating folks feel Lampert will eventually pay more. That being said, Lampert could double his ownership to 27.4% for about $1.5 million more than he would pay if the offer price was accepted. It would be a rather cheap premium to pay to all but assure a deal.

Also, the letter twice refers to Sears as “your largest stockholder”. It is a veiled way of saying “hey, we own more of this sucker than you do, want to get ugly?
Go ahead.”

Now, Restoration management has done the right thing in waiting this out until now to get a higher price. However, there now comes a point where they will be viewed as obstructing the process rather than getting the best deal. This is especially apparent since the are the other bidder for the company and their offer is now inferior to the one Sears has made. Sears, being the “largest stockholder” does have the the upper hand should things get contentious.

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Circuit City: Please Come Back!!

Circuit City (CC) has now regressed into the guy in high school that dumps his girlfriend only to beg her to come back after he realizes what a huge mistake he made.

Circuit City Spokesman Bill Cimino said last week that Circuit City invited former U.S. workers to apply for jobs, a practice he said was not uncommon in retail, given the typically high turnover. It should be noted here that many of these folks are that same ones that in March, Circuit City let go. More than 3,000 workers were fired and replaced them with lower-paid staff. Cimino added that Circuit City would likely invite more ex-staffers to return next year.

“In a lot of cases, we’ve completely changed how our stores operate; the roles of our associates within the stores,” Cimino told Reuters. “We’ve got a better career path now for associates.” By career path do you mean you will not fired them unexpectedly?

Now, what does Circuit City really hope to accomplish? The good one they let go because the were “too expensive” will already have jobs and those who are still unemployed 6 months after they were let go, do they really want them back? The timing of this is terrible too. They now have themselves competing with the holiday hiring spree that happens every years in retailing.

This is just another in a long line of management failures that has shares snuggled comfortably at 4 year lows. There has been a lot of talk in the blogsphere about shares being a bargain and by most mathematical metrics, they are. Big problem though. In order for those metrics to translate into a retail turnaround and thus have shareholders reap the benefits of that value, management needs to do its job.

Circuit City could carve itself out a niche among the monsters out there like Best Buy (BBY) and Wal-Mart (WMT) much like Julian Day at RadioShack (RSH) has done. It would need to be done on service and a more professional shopping experience. Getting rid of the best folks you have to do that based on their pay scale was just inexplicably short-sighted.

If current management has shown anything, they are just not up to the job and until new management is there, Circuit City will continue to be a value-trap for investors that if it is not bought out soon (next 8 months), will most likely be driven into bankruptcy a sentiment I first expressed in June.

On a side note, why haven’t any of these electronics retailers with “help desks” inside like City’s “Firedog” or Best Buy’s “Geek Squad” jumped at the chance to associate somehow with the hit show “Chuck”? It is a natural association.

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES
Five Star Quality Care FVE Davenport Neutral » Buy
SI International SINT BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Forest Labs FRX AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
Vaxgen VXGN Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform » Accumulate
ITT Industries ITT Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Teradyne TER HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Boeing BA Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Laboratory Corp LH Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Virgin Mobile USA VM Soleil Sell » Hold
Bankrate RATE Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Celgene CELG Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
FEMSA FMX JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
National Grid NGG Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Kimberly-Clark KMB Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Deere DE Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Aetna AET JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
DIRECTV DTV Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
Grant Prideco GRP UBS Neutral » Buy
Air France KLM AKH Citigroup Hold » Buy
Royal Philips Electronics PHG Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Tidewater TDW Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
OmniVision OVTI Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral

DOWNGRADES
Buckeye Partners BPL SMH Capital Buy » Sell
Sasol SSL Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Public Storage PSA Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Amer. 1st Tax Exempt Inv. ATAXZ RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Intersil ISIL Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Casey’s General CASY Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Freddie Mac FRE UBS Buy » Neutral
Fannie Mae FNM UBS Buy » Neutral
Sierra Pacific SRP Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
First Marblehead FMD Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday

Tuesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke is buying S&P 500 Index “Spiders” (SPY) with a tight stop. If the S&P drops 1% to 1395 — sell. Open $140.95

Guy Adami preferred JetBlue (JBLU). Open $6.78

Karen Finerman recommended shorting Big Lots (BIG).Open $20.32

Pete Najarian said Arch Coal (ACI) is a buy. Open $36.18

Records: Since 6/21/2007

Guy Adami= 46-40 = 60%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 53-35 = 62%
Pete Najarian= 35-36 = 48%
Tim Seymore= 5-5 = 50%
Karen Finerman= 29-21 = 59%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Wachovia Insiders Can’t Stop Buying

Wachovia (WB) insiders are buying shares in their bank by the truck load.

After chronicling the latest purchases on November 20th, Wachovia director John Baker decided to part with $558,000 of his own cash to buy more shares.

This latest activity brings the total purchases from insiders since the “banking crisis” began to near $7 million. It also happens to be the most shares bought by insiders at a financial institution during that time frame.

Good news? Sure. Does it mean the stock is destined to turn around and begin an ascent tomorrow? No. It does mean that those folks with intimate knowledge of the firm operations are in a hurry to get shares faster than their employee stock plans will provide them. That is very good.

If you are a long term holder getting in bed with insiders buying shares is rarely a bad idea, especially when the buying is this heavy.

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Monday’s 52 Week Low’s

LZB La-Z-Boy Incorporated 6.28
LSTR Landstar System Inc 37.41
LRY Liberty Property Trust 30.64
LPX Louisiana Pac Corp 14.01
LOW Lowe’s Companies, Inc 22.05
TRY Triarc Companies, Inc … 8.60
TPGI Thomas Pptys Group Inc 10.29
TOH Hicks Acquisition Co … 8.96
MNRO Monro Muffler Brake Inc 20.29
CAR Avis Budget Group 14.21
CAC Camden Natl Corp 30.90
BXXX Brooke Corp 7.65
BBIB Blockbuster Inc 3.22
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc 29.65

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Monday’s Links

Texting, Old Barrista?, Sue RI, Bill Miller

– You can now legally “text” in sick?

– Go away lady, just because you did not get the job, it does not mean you are discriminated against.

Yes, Yes, Yes!!!!!!!!!

– How can you not listen to this guy?

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Another Bad Analyst Call: Starbucks

Odlum Brown analyst Felix Narhi had an interesting call on Starbucks (SBUX)last week.

Recently Starbucks’ projected earnings per share growth of 17% to 21%, while previous guidance was 20% to 22% for FY 2008. Narhi said of this “While this performance and outlook would have been stellar for most companies, apparently some Starbucks investors were expecting even more, nevertheless, this reduction in earnings guidance is hardly a disaster, in our view.”

“Starbucks shares are cheap”, said Mr. Narhi, and they are trading at their lowest level since going pubic in 1992 (26.6 times trailing 12 months as of Friday). He rates Starbucks a “buy” with a $35 price target, down $1 from his previous forecast and he recommends aggressive buying in the low $20-range.

Here is the problem and it is a question of looking at price and implying value from it.

EPS Growth for Starbucks.
2004- 41%
2005- 29%
2006- 20%
2007- 19%
2008- 17%-21% (company provided)

So, we have 4 consecutive years of EPS decline. The last time that happened? Uh, never?!? Investors think there may be a fifth and that is a VERY good chance. That is the reason they are fleeing the stock. It is not due to a “temporary” disruption.

In those previous years Starbucks faced competition on a national scale from, um, nobody. Now they have the juggernaut that is McDonald’s (MCD) gunning from them and regional goliath Dunkin’ Donuts taking direct aim at Starbucks’ business. When one look at the results from those operations, the only deduction that can be made is that it is working. As McDonalds introduces espresso drink nationwide in 2008, that competition will only get more intense, putting more pressure on Starbucks earnings growth.

Mr. Narhi mentions the stock being at its lowest levels since 1992, well in 1992 the company was growing EPS at over 50% a year and there was almost 100 million LESS shares outstanding. Comparing the pure dollar value of a stock is just meaningless unless other factors are also considered.

I have said it here countless times and it has yet not to be true. As earnings growth slows, the premium investors will pay for a stock also decreases. That is simply what is happening with Starbucks. At 26 times trailing EPS, shares are by no means a bargain or an “aggressive buy”. A low share price does not automatically equate to value. Investors are not sure where the bottom is because they cannot get a handle on how much slower things will get. This is in part because of the fierce competition that the company has now it did not have even two years ago AND the lack of honesty or disclosure from management. Donald and Schultz seem to be in denial about their business and with the rest of us seeing it, we doubt everything coming out of Seattle HQ.

The fact they did not address milk costs until almost 2 months after I did ought to make current or potential investors very nervous. It is like they are closing their eyes hoping it will just go away and be ok.

In August management addressed the store traffic issue and said “we expect it to be short term issue”. Now we find out it will take until halfway through 2008 at best to get that straightened out. A “short term” year?

Back in May I said “With all the uncertainty surrounding the company at this point, I could not even begin to consider shares at any price other than the lowest end of the range, $22 or another 21% lower than current prices as I expect EPS growth to slow more.”

That price point now looks too optimistic, high teens are the range now. Those who blindly follow Mr. Narhi’s advice will be disappointed to say the least.

Think it is just Mr. Narhi? Check out the other analyst calls that would have had you throwing you money away in 2007 alone.

20-Nov-07 Friedman Billings Upgraded Mkt Perform to Outperform
16-Nov-07 McAdams,Wright,Ragen Reiterated Buy
16-Nov-07 UBS Reiterated Buy
16-Nov-07 RBC Capital Mkts Reiterated Outperform
16-Nov-07 Friedman Billings Reiterated Mkt Perform
16-Nov-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts Reiterated Sector Outperform
16-Nov-07 Robert W. Baird Downgraded Outperform to Neutral
12-Nov-07 UBS Reiterated Buy
08-Oct-07 Lehman Brothers Reiterated Overweight
27-Sep-07 Banc of America Sec Downgraded Neutral to Sell
02-Aug-07 JMP Securities Reiterated Mkt Outperform
02-Aug-07 McAdams,Wright,Ragen Reiterated Buy
02-Aug-07 RBC Capital Mkts Reiterated Outperform
02-Aug-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts Reiterated Sector Outperform
19-Jul-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts Reiterated Sector Outperform
18-Jul-07 Lehman Brothers Reiterated Overweight
02-Jul-07 Bear Stearns Reiterated Outperform
22-Jun-07 Friedman Billings Downgraded Outperform to Mkt Perform
15-Jun-07 Lehman Brothers Reiterated Overweight
08-Jun-07 Deutsche Securities Reiterated Hold
21-May-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts Reiterated Sector Outperform
02-May-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts Reiterated Sector Outperform
18-Apr-07 Lehman Brothers Reiterated Overweight
01-Mar-07 Prudential Reiterated Neutral
30-Jan-07 JP Morgan Upgraded Neutral to Overweight

Only 1 sell in the whole bunch….. sad

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RIMM’s iBerry?

I was thinking about getting a new blackberry from Research in Motion (RIMM) for my birthday next year and just in time, a neat little device is being planned.

From Unstrung:
The 9000-series is described by Carmi Levy, an analyst at AR Communications Inc. , as “the future of the BlackBerry franchise,” a complete breakaway from the device’s business roots. Instead, the new series targets the consumer space served by the Pearl and Curve models.

“The 9000 is supposed to be a touch-screen device, very similar in form factor to the iPhone,” Levy says. “Which means that it is not an enterprise-friendly device.”

The 9000 series will break from the traditional half-screen, half-keyboard look of the BlackBerry. The handsets will also incorporate an upgraded multimedia system, along with the standard push email capabilities. Better MP3 and video capabilities are crucial if RIM is to take on Apple, Google, and others.

Levy speculates that RIM will introduce the 9000-series in the first quarter of next year. “They were originally shooting for the second half of 2007,” he notes.

The touch-screen devices, however, won’t mean the end of the line for the 8000 series, because businesses will still need devices with proper QWERTY keyboards. “There will be incremental updates. They won’t disappear,” Levy says.

Among the updates will be “a Curve with WiFi,” according to Levy. These devices may have other updates like GPS location tracking and higher resolution onboard cameras as well

I have toyed with folk’s iPhone from Apple (APPL) but just disdain At&T (T) slightly more than my carrier Sprint(S) so that rules out Mr. Jobs’ (had he not tried to screw every penny out of the device he would have sold millions more of them). Since I am pretty sure the price of my leaving them would be a child, I am going to stay with Sprint for now. That and their network is leap and bounds better than the “T’s” is.

I am very intrigued by this phone and cannot wait to see and try it. A new phone is in the cards for the bday and this just might fit the bill.

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Citigroup Gets $7.5 Billion Investment

I have been saying for weeks now that big banks like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Wachovia (WB) were screaming buys at these levels. Insiders are buying like crazy at Wachovia and now Abu Dhabi has invested $7.5 billion in Citi.

“This investment, from one of the world’s leading and most sophisticated equity investors, provides further capital to allow Citi to pursue attractive opportunities to grow its business,” said Win Bischoff, Citi’s Acting Chief Executive Officer. “It builds on a series of actions we have taken over the past several months to strengthen our capital base, which have included sales of certain non-strategic assets, the issuance of trust preferred securities, and the previously announced plan to use common stock to purchase 32% of Nikko Cordial in Japan. In addition, ADIA is a significant participant in alternative investments and emerging markets financial services, two areas in which we have major positions and have been expanding.”

For its investment, Abu Dhabi will receive convertible stock in Citigroup yielding 11% annually. The shares are required to be converted into common stock at a conversion price of between $31.83 and $37.24 a share over a period of time between March 2010 and September 2011. The investment, which took about a week to put together, is expected to close within days. The payment rate reflects market terms based on the conversion premium as well as Citi’s current dividend yield.

American’s current pessimism about banks is not shared by the outside world. Why? They recognize large international banking operations will not be toppled by the US housing market. Will they be hurt? Sure. Will they recover yes. Those who have the guts to buy in when most are fleeing and ride out the storm will be handsomely rewarded just like every other financial “crisis” from the dawn of man.

If you only listen to one piece of advice during your investment career, make it Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett’s, “buy fear and sell greed”.

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This Weeks Dividend Increases


Southern Union (SUG)= 50%
Hormel Foods (HRL)= 23%
American Express (AXP)= 20%
Becton Dickinson (BDX)= 16%
Mattel (MAT)= 15%
Whole Foods (WFMI)= 11%

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This Weeks Insider Buys


Nustar Energy (NS)= $9,667,000
Symmetry Holdings (SHJ)= $7,500,000
Henry Brothers Electronics (HBE)= $5,072,000
American Railcar (ARII)= $4,939,999
Harley Davidson (HOG)= $4,888,000
Wachovia (WB)= $4,477,000
Marchex (MCHX)= $3,820,000
Hercules Offshore (HERO)= $2,264,000

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
US BioEnergy USBE Soleil Sell » Hold
TIBCO Software TIBX Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
PetroChina PTR Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Omega Health OHI UBS Sell » Neutral
Anglo American AAUK HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
CNOOC Ltd CEO Citigroup Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Hecla Mining HL CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Underperform

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This Week’s Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News. It is a Lampert /Buffett buffet.

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"Black Friday" Observations

So, the initial early reports from Friday morning (pre 7am). Observations taken from locations in 4 separate towns in Massachusetts. Please leave your observations in the comments section.

Mobs:
Wal-Mart (WMT): Parking lot filled past capacity well before the 5am opening. Wal-Mart.com also makes them a bug winner today. I was able to pick up some things at the sale prices before I left the house this morning at 4:30am and saved a trip there to shop, enabling me to go to other stores. I used the “site-to -store” program and received free shipping.

Best Buy (BBY): Very impressive. Had its lot and the lot of the strip mall next to it filled and a huge line out front before 5 am opening

Moderate:
Target (TGT): A 6 am opening may have hurt as folks may have went to Best Buy or Wal-Mart for items prior to or instead of going to Target. Still had an impressive wait but an earlier opening probably would have brought in more shoppers. Left sales in the parking lot.

Sears (SHLD): Better that both JC Penny and Macy’s but behind Best Buy, Target and Wal-Mart. The good news for Sears? The Craftsmen tool and home appliance departments were filled to capacity and then some meaning they were selling high margin items. Sales staff said traffic was, and I quote, “wicked better than last year” (that is good). A 5am opening here helped.

Losers:
JC Penny (JCP) and Macy’s (M): In the same mall as Sears but their parking lots (the three store are spaced one in the middle and the other two are on either end) left much to be desired. Macy’s lot would have allowed a shopper to virtually park in front of the doors and JC’s was not much better. Not good.

Linens and Things:
Probably would have done better if they opened much later, at least they would have saved some money on labor and electricity. Since I could not see anyone shopping

Borders (BDG) / Barnes and Nobel (BKS): Most of these locations now have coffee shops in them both I passed were closed early. How well could they have done selling coffee to those waiting in line at the other locations? Think they could have lured some in? It was very cold in the Northeast this morning. File this under “opportunity lost”

Mattel (MAT): People were not buying toys probably due to the lead paint issues. Learning and video games were flying off the shelves (good for Leapfrog (LF)).

Other winners:
Microsoft (MSFT): The “Zune” was sold out at most locations and those that still had it where getting top dollar for it (and it was still selling).

50/50 Results:
Apple (APPL): 8GB iPods were sitting on the shelves but the 4GB were all gone at most locations (nanos). iTouch sales were, again I quote, “not as good as the Zune”. It should be noted though that these observation are NOT at Apple stores but other retailers so one cannot commit either way. Mac’s were selling “very well”.

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