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Thursday’s 52 Week Low’s


WM Washington Mutual Inc 18.84
WL Wilmington Trust Corp … 33.41
WGO Winnebago Industries, Inc 22.94
WB Wachovia Corp 39.37
TXA Tribune Co New 58.50
TWX Time Warner Inc 17.46
TWC Time Warner Cable Inc 25.93
SIX Six Flags Inc 2.64
SHLD Sears Hldgs Corp 121.08
SBUX Starbucks Corp 23.08
PJC Piper Jaffray Cos 41.88
PFE Pfizer Inc 23.04
OMX Officemax Inc Del 25.10
OMC Omnicom Group Inc 46.42
MER Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc 51.97
MDT Medtronic, Inc 45.42
MDC M.D.C. Holdings, Inc 36.52
MCO Moodys Corp 37.18
MBI MBIA Inc 30.16
LVLT Level 3 Communication … 2.85
LUV Southwest Airlines Co. 13.00
LTD Limited Brands Inc 19.33
KKD Krispy Kreme Doughnut … 2.68
KSS Kohl’s Corporation 48.42
JWN Nordstrom Inc 32.29
HD Home Depot, Inc 28.46
DBRN Dress Barn Inc 13.62
DBD Diebold, Incorporated 36.99
CYBX Cyberonics Inc 11.95
CX Cemex Sab De Cv 26.59
CC Circuit City Stores, … 6.94
C Citigroup, Inc 31.98
BXC Bluelinx Hldgs Inc 3.90
BSC The Bear Stearns Comp … 95.92

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Wal-Mart International Sales Strong

Lost in the commentary in yesterday’s earnings release from Wal-Mart (WMT) was the fantastic international results.

At international stores, net sales rose 19.2% to $7.19 billion. In October, the company’s operations in the United Kingdom, Brazil and China continued their recent positive performance. Sales throughout Brazil continue to be driven by a stronger price position, in-stock improvement and a recovery of disposable income.

Total company sales for the month rose 8.4% to $27.92 billion. At Wal-Mart stores, same-store sales were flat, while net sales rose 5% to $17.44 billion. Same-store sales at Sam’s Club warehouse stores rose 2.7%, boosted by strengths in fresh food, grocery, video games and office supplies. Sam’s Club net sales rose 5.3% to $3.3 billion.

What will be very interesting is too see how the “Black Friday” after Halloween will affect November sales. Initial reports are that is was a large success both online and in the stores. As the consumer feels pinched (assuming they do) Wal-Mart will benefit from this.

Now, if Lee Scott & Co. is looking at the same reports I am, I have to hope they are plowing money into both the overseas operations and stock buybacks. That is where they are going to realize the best value for the money spent.

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Thursday’s Links

Apple monopoly?, Bloggystyle, Cuomo, WaMu

Interesting

– Here is Adam’s aggregation

– Just what we need, another dipshit AG trying to make a name for himself screwing things up.

– Buy the financials

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Bernanke: "Recent Develpements May Well Lead to Healthier System":

Some highlights from Bernanke’s testimony to congress today.

“Although the problems with subprime mortgages initiated the financial turmoil, credit concerns quickly spilled over into a number of other areas. Importantly, the secondary market for securities backed by prime jumbo mortgages also contracted, and the issuance of such securities has declined significantly. Prime jumbo loans are still being made to prospective home purchasers, but they are at higher spreads and have more-restrictive terms. Concerns about mortgage-backed securities and structured credit products (even those unrelated to mortgages) also greatly reduced investor appetite for asset-backed commercial paper, although that market has improved somewhat recently. In the area of business credit, investors shied away from financing leveraged buyouts and from purchasing speculative-grade corporate bonds. And some larger banks, concerned about potentially large and difficult-to-predict draws on their liquidity and balance sheet capacity, became less willing to provide funding to their customers or to each other.

To be sure, the recent developments may well lead to a healthier financial system in the medium to long term: Increased investor scrutiny of structured credit products is likely to lead ultimately to greater transparency in these products and to better differentiation among assets of varying quality. Investors have also become more cautious and are demanding greater compensation for bearing risk. In the short term, however, these events do imply a greater measure of financial restraint on economic growth as credit becomes more expensive and difficult to obtain.”

Going forward:

“In the days since the October FOMC meeting, the few data releases that have become available have continued to suggest that the overall economy remained resilient in recent months. However, financial market volatility and strains have persisted. Incoming information on the performance of mortgage-related assets has intensified investors’ concerns about credit market developments and the implications of the downturn in the housing market for economic growth. In addition, further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity. The FOMC will continue to carefully assess the implications for the outlook of the incoming economic data and financial market developments and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.”

In short, the economy is good, credit is tight, financials will be fine, long term this is good, oil sucks. Will oil seep into the system? To date it has had a limited effect on the consumer. This does bear close watching though.

Whole testimony here:

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Whitney Tilson on Wal-Mart

I had no idea YouTube was an investor’s information site also. Tilson talks about Wal-Mart (WMT).

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Whitney Tilson on Citigroup’s Robert Rubin and The Board

Tilson is someone whose opinions are worth listening to. He speaks to the Citigroup’s (C) Chairman’s “tarnished” reputation.

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Sears Holdings Brand and Land Values

Analyst Seth Sigman of Credit Suisse calculated for the first time values on Sears Holdings’ (SHLD) property and brands.

In a report issued Tuesday he estimated values as follows: real estate, $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion; leased stores, $1 billion to $2 billion; distribution centers, $700 million to $1.1 billion; Hoffman Estates headquarters, $200 million to $400 million; private brands, such as Craftsman, Kenmore and DieHard, $3 billion to $5 billion; Lands’ End, $2.2 billion to $2.8 billion; and home services business, $2.8 billion to $3.5 billion. Total? $19.4 billion to $26.3 billion.

That is just the value of the land and the brand’s, it does not include the results of the retail operations which contributed $2.5 billion last year. Sears current valuation on the market? $18 billion, 7% below even the lowest estimate of just it’s real estate & brand value and 46% below the highest.

Currently shares trade at $127 and there are less than 140 million of them outstanding (we will know exactly how many Lampert has repurchased soon but he may have bought 10.4 million back). If we were to value Sears just on the brands and not on it’s operations, we get a share price of $137 to $185. We also have to value the operations and that gives us an additional $9.47 a share for the past 12 months giving us a price range of $145 to $194.

The important point is that this valuation include NO premium for either the brands, property or earnings. It is a flat valuation of the parts and a years earnings. What type of valuation do we give the capacity of Lampert to monetize the brands or the property?

Sears is trading at 13 times its current earnings, at the lower end of the retail spectrum. Consider Wal-Mart (WMT) trades at 15 times, Target (TGT) 17 and Macy’s (M) 18 times. If we add the value of the property and brands we can effectively double its current share price. The issue for the market currently is that the value of those items will not filter into the stock price until Lampert unlocks that value. If Lampert decide to sell or lease the land he owns, the value of that then filters into the stock price. If he licenses the Craftsman or DieHard brands, that value then filters into the price. Without anyone knowing what his plans are, investors are hesitant to make a leap of faith and assume he may take a certain course.

Thus the “hidden value” in Sears shares… Lampert is smart and will not sit tight forever. My guess is he is buying as much stock as he can at these prices while he can before he moves….

It’s alright, I got time…

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ADM’s Conference Call Discloses Some Interesting Items

There was an interesting disclosure in Archer Daniels Midland’s (ADM) conference call. CEO Patricia Woertz addressed two important issues.

Ann Gurkin – Davenport

“Just wanted to spend a little time on getting an update on your work and, besides ethanol, other renewable fuels, switch grass. Maybe are you closer to doing anything in sugar in South America, Can we just get an update there?”

Pat Woertz

“Sure. We’ve talked about diversifying our feedstocks, which would include more palm, sugar, potential biomass to be run not only for first but sort of second-generation biofuels. Mike Pacheco, who is our new Chief Technology Officer, spent a little bit of time in about five slides or so, which you might want to look up on our website, but talked a little bit about.

So to speak, first of all our advantage in the dry mill ethanol world, which, of course, we’re completing two plants adjacent to our wet mills facility. But then kind of spent time on the nearer term focus on commercializing technology, again in a wide range; food, feed, industrial bioproducts and then biofuels.

And when it comes to the biofuels piece, we kind of walked through the spectrum of not only technology conversion, but also feedstocks and also end products, and are attempting at this point.

And I would say by February of next year, we will have a very limited list, or a very highly focus list, I should say, of the kind of opportunities for both conversion feedstock and end products.

A good example is our ConocoPhillips project that we announced, which is looking at biomass to biocrude, so this would be a type of crude oil that could be run in the traditional refineries yet made from biomass at very cost effective prices.

So that’s an example something where we actually have that one up and running. There’s a couple of other collaborative researches we’ve announced, one with the Colorado Consortium, one with Purdue University, et cetera.

So a lot going on but more clarification and I would say fine-tuning of that by early next year.”

Ken Zaslow – BMO Capital Markets

“Would you think about buying ethanol assets rather than building and at what price? And how do you think about it, just because it seems like a lot of these capacity buildups are slowing down a little bit and it seems like there may be opportunity to come in and buy some assets a little bit cheaper than maybe build it?”

Pat Woertz

“Yes, I’ll take that one, Ken. We’re actively engaged in this market all the time, and we know where every plant location is. We kind of have a sense of what locations might be interesting to us. But it would have to be a real value and scale and fit with our network, but it’s not to say we aren’t looking and aware.”

ADM is clearly on the hunt both for acquisition and JV’s to expand its businesses in biofuels. The beginning of next year will be very exciting as Woertz plans to make additional announcements. the best part is they are doing it in a very disciplined manner and not running around buying everything in sight. This is good because ethanol assets will be on the market and a disciplined buyer will be able to take great advantage of the situation.

Aside from that investors ought to mark their calenders for February, something is coming…

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Sierra Wireless SWIR Avondale Partners Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Novatel Wireless NVTL Avondale Partners Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
AbitibiBowater ABH DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Optimal Group OPMR B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Corn Products CPO BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
NFJ Dividend, Interest and Premium Strategy Fund NFJ Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Nuveen Equity Premium Opportunity Fund JSN Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Fund II EOS Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
eSpeed ESPD Sandler O’Neill Hold » Buy
United Dominion UDR Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
Rochester Medical ROCM Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
China Finance Online JRJC Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Workstream WSTM Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Hutchinson HTCH Caris & Company Below Average » Average
Quintana Maritime QMAR Oppenheimer Sell » Neutral
Trico Marine Services TRMA Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Siliconware Precision SPIL HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Allstate ALL Citigroup Hold » Buy
Horace Mann HMN Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Career Education CECO BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Hercules HPC Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Christopher & Banks CBK Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Danaher DHR Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Martha Stewart MSO Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
Delek US Holdings DK HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Audiocodes AUDC Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Archer-Daniels ADM Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Camden Property CPT Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Assured Guaranty AGO JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Northrop Grumman NOC UBS Neutral » Buy
UBS AG UBS JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Sun Microsystems JAVA Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
Mediacom Comm MCCC Citigroup Hold » Buy
Lululemon Athletica LULU UBS Sell » Neutral
UnitedHealth UNH UBS Neutral » Buy
Marshall & Ilsley MI JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Sysco SYY JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Performance Food PFGC Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
IndyMac Banc IMB RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Cognizant Tech CTSH RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Res-Care RSCR First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
Kinross Gold KGC UBS Buy » Neutral
Mueller Water B MWA.B Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Capital One COF Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Post Properties PPS Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
AvalonBay AVB Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Quicksilver Resrcs KWK BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Veraz Networks VRAZ Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Immunicon IMMC Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Forest Oil FST Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
iBasis IBAS Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Momenta Pharma MNTA Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Campbell Soup CPB Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Wachovia WB Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
Magna MGA RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
CollaGenex Pharm CGPI Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Expeditors Intl EXPD Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
SiRF Technology SIRF RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Innovative Solutions ISSC Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Tongjitang Chinese Medic TCM CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Telesp Part Adr TSP JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Performance Food PFGC JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
PetroChina PTR Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Omnicom OMC Banc of America Sec Buy » Sell
Interpublic IPG Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Credence CMOS Citigroup Hold » Sell
CBL & Assoc CBL JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Jamba JMBA Rochdale Securities Buy » Hold
Delia*s DLIA Rochdale Securities Buy » Hold
Momenta Pharma MNTA Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Cytogen CYTO Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
IndyMac Banc IMB Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Charlotte Russe CHIC Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
PeopleSupport PSPT Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks

Tim Seymour liked Gold Fields (GFI). Open $18.10

Guy Adami recommended shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG). Open $59.46

Karen Finerman liked her financials trade; long Goldman (GS) Open $214.18 and short Lehman (LEH). Open $55.96

Pete Najarian liked Evergreen Solar (ESLR). Open $13.65

Wednesday’s Results

Jeff Macke is a buyer of Intel (INTC). Open $27.49 Close $26.90 LOSS

Guy Adami recommended Ford (F).Open $8.63 Close $8.24 LOSS

Karen Finerman would short Lehman Brothers (LEH).Open $59.37 Close $55.96 GAIN

Pete Najarian would short MBIA (MBI). Open $35.65 Close $33.57 GAIN

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 42-25 = 63%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 47-33 = 58%
Pete Najarian= 30-30 = 50%
Tim Seymore= 4-3 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 26-14 = 63%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Wednesday’s 52 Week Low’s


WM Washington Mutual Inc 20.48
WLK Westlake Chem Corp 21.04
WLDN Willdan Group Inc 7.57
WL Wilmington Trust Corp … 33.73
WIRE Encore Wire Corp 19.64
WFC Wells Fargo & Company 31.45
SURG Synergetics Usa Inc 3.25
SUAI Specialty Underwriter … 6.56
STU The Student Loan Corp … 151.93
STRZ Star Buffet Inc 6.50
SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co 27.52
SOV Sovereign Bancorp Inc 11.95
SCHS School Specialty Inc 32.04
SBUX Starbucks Corp 24.44
SBKC Security Bank Corp 9.10
SAIA Saia Inc 12.49
SAF SAFECO Corporation 54.19
RVI Retail Ventures Inc 7.45
RT Ruby Tuesday, Inc. (G … 14.09
Q Qwest Communications … 6.66
PZN Pzena Investment Mgmt Inc 16.29
PVH Phillips-Van Heusen C … 42.93
PULB Pulaski Finl Corp 11.50
PTV Pactiv Corp 25.44
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 37.52
PBH Prestige Brands Hldgs Inc 8.47
PACR Pacer Intl Inc Tenn 13.11
PABK PAB Bankshares, Inc 14.66
PJC Piper Jaffray Cos 43.15
PIR Pier 1 Imports, Inc 4.30
PGTI Pgt Inc 7.40
PGR The Progressive Corpo … 17.88
NCC National City Corporation 21.44
MTB M & T Bk Corp 89.17
MAR Marriott Intl Inc New 37.37
LUV Southwest Airlines Co. 13.34
KMX CarMax, Inc 18.93
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Indus … 6.75
JBLU Jetblue Awys Corp 8.10
JAH Jarden Corp 28.50
GMTN Gander Mountain Co 4.90
GMT GATX Corporation 38.54
FUN Cedar Fair, L.P. 22.53
FRE Freddie Mac 45.84
FNM Fannie Mae 50.01
FL Foot Locker Inc 13.31
EBHI Bauer Eddie Hldgs Inc 6.20
EBF Ennis Business Forms, Inc 17.78
DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 13.93
CPKI California Pizza Kitc … 15.02
C Citigroup, Inc 33.99
BSC The Bear Stearns Comp … 97.11

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Wednesday’s Links

Locked Phones, Festival, Krispy Kreme

– Apple (AAPL) cannot makenup its mind and had re-locked iPhones

– Here is the latest Festival of Stocks

– The Master’s have nailed it to this point, why doubt them now?

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Today’s Citigroup Buyers Will Be Rewarded

“Buy fear and sell greed” Warren Buffett

I found an very interesting chart over at Bespoke Investments. It contrasted today’s “crisis” with past ones (LTCM, Orange County & Enron). The chart (below) illustrates that this sell-off in Citigroup (C) shares is in keeping with past ones and also shows the rapid accent after the “crisis” passes.

Is Citi is trouble of failing? Not by a country mile. Let’s not forget these are just paper losses. Citi made $21 billion last year and sits on $2.3 TRILLION in assets as of 9/30 which is more than 2X it current debt. The dividend, now at 6.3% is safe as Citi has a plethora of options to use to pay it. Let’s not forget, aside from writing down the CDO’s, the rest of the banks operations are performing very well and the international operations are going gangbusters.

What if Citi has to sell off assets to meet obligations? Isn’t that what people want to unlock the value in it? They won’t but even if they do, let’s say they sell $50 billion in assets. That whopping amount comes to 2% of Citi’s total asset base…. am I the only one who really does not think that is a big deal? It is a bit like us selling our dishwasher.

Citi could issue $200 billion in debt to provide funds and even with that, it assets base would still be twice its debt level.

The thing of it is, a billion dollars used to be a lot of money. It just isn’t that much anymore when you are talking about institutions sitting on trillions. Some perspective is in order.

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Wachovia Taking Over Merrill The Easy Way

While Wachovia (WB) passed on the opportunity to acquire Merrill Lynch (MER), they are in effect acquiring some of its most valuable assets.

Wachovia has been hiring some of Merrill’s most accomplished brokers and traders. since those folks have a large amount of their pay packages in Merrill stock, let’s just say they have taken a significant pay cut with Merrill’s stock down 32% YTD.

Wachovia is offering upfront bonuses to the people they want and reports are that they are getting them in mass.

Wachovia passed on acquiring Merrill’s problems last month, they have jumped at getting the assets that matter, its people.

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Sprint Saves Itself: For Now

Sprint (S) took the first step to tuning around its annually depressing subscriber numbers, it will sell Google’s (GOOG) Gphone.

It looks like sprint ands T-Mobile (T) will be the first two carriers to handle to new phone. The best part of the phone it that it will not be made by Google. Why is that good? We will be getting phones in all shapes and sizes and price ranges that will carry the software. That means that all types of people are now potential buyers of the product.

For Sprint this means that all it customers are now potential customers and of those that are not, all customers in all demographics could make the switch, not just those who will fork over $599 for the device like when Apple (AAPL) rolled out the iPhone (it now sells for $399).

So, is Sprint a buy? No, not yet. We still need more info. When is the rollout? What is Sprint going to do to fix its customer service issue which are the main reason subscribers have left. If they cannot fix these, any gains they get from the Gphone will be short lived as subscribers will leave for the other carriers that have the phone.

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