ValuePlays

Here they are…

TWP Trex Inc
TRAC Track Data Corp
SUMR Summer Infant Inc
MWAB Mueller Wtr Prods Inc
FFIV F5 Networks Inc
DATA Datatrak Intl Inc
COBR Cobra Electronics Cor
BMJ Birks & Mayors Inc
CTRN Citi Trends Inc
UST UST Inc

Here are todays links of note…

– Have you ever got burned by an “analyst call” that did not work out? Take this advice

– After a Thornburg (TMA) Co-Founder said on CNBC that mortgage markets other than deposit backed are almost at a standstill and they cannot give guidance because of the business uncertainty, here is a gusty analyst call.. Yes, this is dripping with sarcasm.

– When things get crazy it always makes sense to Remember A Classic Theory

– Diet Coke brags it is only 1% crap that is bad for you

– Some Random Thoughts by Adam Warner about Bernanke and Cramer.

UPGRADES

Anheuser-Busch BUD AG Edwards Hold » Buy
National City NCC BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Huntington Banc HBAN FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
UCBH Holdings UCBH FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Lamar Advertising LAMR Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Universal Compression Ptnrs UCLP Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Dollar Tree DLTR Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Amerigroup AGP Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
First Solar FSLR Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Darden Restaurants DRI CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform

DOWNGRADES

Seacoast Banking SBCF Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Sell
Brookdale Senior Living BKD Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
USG Corp USG Matrix Research Buy » Sell

Here are Tuesday’s picks and Monday’s results.

Picks for Tuesday

Jeff Macke said sell Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). Open $78.10

Pete Najarian liked Atmel (ATML) due to unusual options activity. Open $4.86

Guy Adami preferred Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Open $79.96

Stacey Briere Gilbert also recommended buying Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Open $79.96

MONDAY’S PICKS

Jeff Macke said Whole Foods Market (WFMI) is a buy. Open $44.30 Close $43.47 Loss $.83

Karen Finerman liked Trinity Industries (TRN) for the railroads. Open $33.27 close $33.60 Gain $.33

Guy Adami preferred Deere & Co (DE).Open $124.61 Close $128.27 Gain $3.66

Pete Najarian recommended Citigroup (C) as a big bank. Open $48.81 Close $48.39 Loss $.42

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 17-12 Gain $30.81
Bolling= 10-11 Loss $14.01
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 20-17 Gain $2.61
Pete Najarian= 12-8 Gain $24.56
Seymore= 3-2 Loss $.49
Finerman= 3-2 Gain $1.21
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

WOC Wilshire Oil Company
WLM Wellman, Inc
WIH Wilson Holdings Inc
NCOC National Coal Corp
QLGC QLogic Corp
MHP The McGraw-Hill Company
GLGC Gene Logic Inc
FNLY Finlay Enterprises Inc
FLL Full House Resorts Inc
CRBU American Cmnty Newspaper

In contrast the Home Depot’s (HD) earnings last week, Lowes (LOW) reported today and the news was generally good.

Earnings rose 9% to $1.02 billion, or 67 cents a share, in Q2, up from $935 million, or 60 cents a share last year. Analysts had expected 61 cents a share, according to estimates. Sales also rose 5.8% to $14.2 billion due to the opening of 26 new stores. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 2.6%, in line with the company’s expectations of a drop of as much as 3 percent. This is in contrast to the 15% decline in earnings at Home Depot.

Lowe’s called the current environment “challenging” as the U.S. housing market depressed results in some areas, but said it had gained market share in 15 of 20 product categories (they did the same last quarter also). During a conference call Chairman Robert Niblock said, “There are signs of improvement in certain areas of the country,”. The U.S. Northeast, he said was showing signs of improving sales in big-ticket installations. U.S. markets where housing hadn’t accelerated much in recent years delivered positive same-store sales, Lowe’s said. This is big. It means that in non-bubble areas they are thing are not desperate and Lowes in making big progress.

When one looks at this report one would be inclined to think we may be bottoming and there is light at the end of the tunnel while a look at the Home Depot call would lead one to think we are in a free fall. While I am not a buyer of either company right now, this earnings reports does cement in my opinion that Home Depot is years away from being a potential investment.

Lowes is managing through these tough times and taking market share from Home Depot quarter after quarter. When housing does turn around, Lowes will be in much better shape. When you look at the two you have to conclude Home Depot is just a mess and they aren’t doing anything to lead one to think things will get any better anytime soon.

Lowes proved today that is is not necessarily the shopper but where the shopper decides to shop.

Did not see this anywhere in the MSM (mainstream media) last week but Democratic Presidential advisers are taking positions with an anti Wal-Mart (WMT) group. Surprised?

Wakeupwalmart.com has hired Meghan Scott, who previously worked on John Edwards’s presidential campaign is expected to be named “deputy campaign manager” of the organization and will be assisted by Nick Baldick, Jeremy Van Ess and Richie Ros. “Who are those guys?” you ask. Baldick was the national campaign manager for John Edwards’s presidential campaign in 2003 and early 2004. Van Ess worked on the presidential campaigns of John Kerry and Edwards and was chief speechwriter for Harry Reid, the current Senate majority leader. Ross ran the 2005 California gubernatorial campaign of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. Apparently hiring people from losing political organizations is a recipe for success now? What no one from Jimmy Carter’s camp was available?

The organization, Wakeupwalmart, ironically was started by the United Food & Commercial Workers Union in 2005 when efforts by the Union to organize Wal-Mart workers failed. People who actually work at Wal-Mart have no affiliation with it. It oddly enough has no current plans to attempt to organize workers at Target (TGT), Kohl’s (KSS) or Macy’s (M) despite workers at those organizations faring no better (and in some areas worse) than Wal-Mart employees in term of wages or benefits.

It would seem their “outrage” at “suffering workers” is limited to those workers at politically appealing targets, not necessarily workers being taken advantage of. Are there any lower paid workers than those at fast food locations? Where are the commercials alerting us to the plight of those “disadvantaged” folks? I am sure those at Wakeup find it odd and it is apparently the reason that their efforts have failed when you consider a new Wal-Mart in Livonia, Michigan that will employee 530 workers recently had 5,000 people apply for these abhorrent, underpaid, undesirable, slave labor positions. Who is kidding who?

Said Ms. Scott, “We are going to fight to ensure that Wal-Mart becomes a responsible organization,” she said. If only she looked at her own organization first.

Do Democrats really wonder why they get the “anti-business” tag?? Do they really?

So, Barron’s did a piece on Mr. Cramer this weekend and the jist of it was that it was not a flattering portrayal. Some blogs have rushed to Cramer’s defense but before you buy into their reasoning, check their motives.

First, as is my standing policy I will not name folks but readers who do their homework can come to their own conclusions.

Now, Cramer. As I have said here countless times I am not a fan of his bi-polar trading style and when you constantly shout to people how great you are, you then become a rather loud target. That being said, when he talks about the market and it’s machinations, there are not very many folks better. I wish he would stick to that but it probably would not be very much of a show and rating are what CNBC wants. Also, he recent rant and then love fest with Bernanke over rates may go down and the most embarrassing episode in TV history, although I doubt he sees it.

The Barron’s piece. I think that Cramer’s show is purposely vague enough so that the picks cannot be tracked and if they are, there is enough ambiguity there allow to for a defense. Barron’s had a well written piece that did the best job I have seen to date tracking his picks. I will neither say they are right or wrong because of the reason I gave before, the show is just too ambiguous to really say. The piece was very well done though.

The defenders…

Some blogs have rushed to attack Barron’s and defend Cramer, why?

One defense is the conspiracy theory. Barron’s is owned by Dow Jones (DJ) which was just purchased by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (NWS). The infantile theory says that with Murdoch starting a business news channel soon, (the rumor has been around for a few years now) Barron’s writers and editors, wanting to “get in good” with him attacked CNBC’s star. What, are they serious? Why make the attack now? Why not wait until the channel was actually announced and being launched? Any effect an attack would have now will dissipate and be forgotten by the time the channel actual debuts. Also, does anyone really think that Murdoch built the multi billion dollar empire he has by being duped by such transparent sucking up if that is what it was?

Do people out there honestly think Murdoch spent $5 billion for Dow Jones and does not know the players there? He just woke up one morning and decided to make a go of it because he had some extra cash in his wallet ? This whole line of thinking is really pretty sad and should eliminate whatever comes after it in a Cramer defense because if the writer of it actually believes it, any other reasoning they may have on the subject is probably equally as flawed. This reasoning is about as likely as Sam Giancana and the Chicago Mafia actually killing Kennedy. What is much more likely is that Cramer’s antics the past few weeks have people looking to knock him down a peg or two.

The “show is educational” defense. Yes it is. But, when you dance around and tell people to “buy” and “sell”, you now are giving investing advice and when those people are calling because they do not know the answer and are asking you for it, you cannot fall back on the “do your homework” excuse. If they could, they would not be calling you. What would you tell your broker (if you have one) if he said that to you? If you want it to be purely educational, stop telling people what to do.

So, why the defenders? Ass kissing, pure and simple. The most influential site out there today for driving traffic to your stock blog is James Altucher’s “Daily Blog Watch”. “Blog Watch” is part of….. drum roll please….James Cramer’s, The Street.com. A defense of Cramer is an attempt to “get you in good” with the folks there, get your blog listed there more and drive more traffic to you. Politics, Simple.

When it comes to the Cramer thing in the blogsphere, take everything written with a huge grain of salt. Much of it is very intertwined and what may appear as an honest defense of Cramer is more likely an attempt to defend a friend or endear oneself to an influential site.

Now, neither of those are bad things, but let’s try to be honest about our motives, can we? If we are doing either one of those, lets “disclose” it. If we have a relationship with Cramer or The Street.com or Mr. Altucher, tell people so they are able to put your “defense” in the proper framework.

If we disclose our stock affiliations when we write about them, ought we not disclose the other ones we write about?

Here are Friday’s results and Monday’s picks

MONDAY’S PICKS

Jeff Macke said Whole Foods Market (WFMI) is a buy. Open $44.30

Karen Finerman liked Trinity Industries (TRN) for the railroads. Open $33.27

Guy Adami preferred Deere & Co (DE).Open $124.61

Pete Najarian recommended Citigroup (C) as a big bank. Open $48.81

FRIDAY’S RESULTS

Jeff Macke likes General Motors (GM) because he thinks the stock has bottomed. Open $30.77 CLOSE $30.55 Loss $.22

Pete Najarian likes Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) and suggests it might be a takeover target. Open $12.38 CLOSE $15.04 Gain $2.66

Guy Adami prefers Network Appliance (NTAP) because he feels this name has performed well in a difficult tape. Open $25.27 CLOSE $25.98 Gain $.61

Eric Bolling recommends buying the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) because he thinks the financials have bottomed. Open $33.15 CLOSE $34.50 Gain $1.25

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 16-12 Gain $27.15
Bolling= 10-11 Loss $14.01
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 20-16 Gain $3.24
Pete Najarian= 12-7 Gain $24.98
Seymore= 3-2 Loss $.49
Finerman= 2-2 Gain $.88
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

Here are the notable increases for the week ending Friday.

1- Tower Group (TWGP)= 100%

2- The Andersons (ANDE) = 64%

3- Martin Marietta (MLM)= 26%

4- Tiffany & Co. (TIF)= 25%

5- Parker Hanniffan (PH)= 21% (also announced a 3 for 2 stock split)