Justin Siegel writes:
Sears (SHLD) is a Blue Light Special!
When I look for investment opportunities, I look primarily for 3 things:
1. Management
1. Are they aligned with shareholders?
2. Are they smart, proven?
3. Do they run the business like an owner?
2. Business
1. Is it a good business?
2. Is it easy to understand, for me at least?
3. Valuation
1. How much do I think it’s worth and how much below that value is it selling for?
How does Sears stack up?
1. Management
1. Effectively Eddie Lampert through his hedge fund, ESL, controls Sears, through a majority stake of common shares. In short, he’s staked his personal fortune, his hedge funds fortune, his reputation, etc. on the Sears common shares, which by the way represent the majority investment of his hedge fund portfolio.
2. Yes, Eddie Lampert is smart. Ivy league graduate, self-made billionaire, etc. Is he proven? He has racked up decades of 20%+ returns, so he’s a proven investor. Even a proven retail investor, but not necessarily a proven operator. A yellow flag in my opinion.
2. Business
1. Retail is a decent business. Not rocket science.
2. Retail is easy to understand, though Sears has many facets, which I think are often overlooked, or at least currently by the market.
3. Valuation
1. The short answer is I think Sears is worth A LOT more than $8 billion dollars. Why? Well, here are some of the juiciest parts:
1. Brands – Kenmore, Craftsman, LandsEnd, Diehard, and even Sears itself have very solid brand equity. Even after years of being ignored and poorly run, these brands are respected and valued throughout North America.
2. LandsEnd – Beyond the brand, this is a good business in its own right that has been churning out record years with one of the highest converting retail websites in the country. Sears bought it a few years back for shy of $2 billion. Probably worth at least that much.
3. 70% stake in Sears Canada, which has been doing very well.
4. Cash – $1.5 billion last quarter on its balance sheet
5. Sears.com – one of the largest, fastest growing, and improved websites of any major retailer. Still work to be done, but improvements galore.
6. Servicing network – Largest appliance and lawn equipment repair service in the country. I like a business where they sell you the washer and dryer once, and then get paid to maintain and repair to too.
7. Eddie Lampert – You get one of the world’s best capital allocators for free. Over time this will matter significantly, as it does in all businesses.
8. Real Estate – This frankly is the least interesting asset to me because it only becomes valuable if the rest of the business is failing, which it isn’t. Sears is profitable on a reported earnings and cash flow basis. However, Sears does own somewhere between $7-$20 billion in real estate depending upon who you believe.
And as a kicker, today you can buy Sears for LESS than Bill Ackman, Monish Pabrai, Bruce Fairholme, Bill Miller, and several other brilliant investors. It’s tied to the economy like everything and everyone, so it may not being going anywhere fast, but… What are some potential catalysts? Eddie Lampert making a great acquisition, earnings surprise, faster economic recovery. I think it’s a Blue Light special, but it’s up to you to cast your own votes.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Justin is Long SHLD
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