Tag: davidson

Dow down 5% in 5 days……some big names are making the list now

WMT Wal-Mart Stores, Inc
USG USG Corporation
TE TECO Energy, Inc
SKX Skechers U S A Inc
SCT Scottish Re Group Limited
SCSS Select Comfort Corp
RAIL Freightcar Amer Inc
NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc
NVS Novartis A G
MAS Masco Corporation
M Macys Inc
LIZ Liz Claiborne, Inc
LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc
FL Foot Locker Inc
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc Del
CHS Chico’s FAS Inc
CFC Countrywide Financial
BOW Bowater Incorporated
AMD Advanced Micro Devices

Here are the calls

UPGRADES

Fossil FOSL Piper Jaffray Market Perform » Outperform
Methanex MEOH CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Wash. Federal WFSL Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Allegheny Tech ATI Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
A.M. Castle CAS Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
Carpenter Tech CRS Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
RF Micro Device RFMD Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Buy
Domtar UFS DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Insituform Tech INSU Morgan Joseph Sell » Hold
OmniVision OVTI Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Lexmark LXK FTN Midwest Sell » Neutral
Leap Wireless LEAP Stanford Research Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES

Northstar Realty NRF Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Newcastle Investment NCT Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
KKR Financial KFN Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Arbor Realty Trust ABR Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Thornburg Mortg TMA Citigroup Hold » Sell
UBS AG UBS Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Daktronics DAKT Janco Partners Accumulate » Mkt Perform
Pope & Talbot POP DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
Sirenza Micro SMDI Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Haverty Furniture HVT Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Piper Jaffray Market Perform » Underperform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Avery Dennison AVY Matrix Research Hold » Sell

We took a quick vacation this past weekend and brought the kids to Storyland in Glenn, NH. If you’ve never done it and have pre-teen kids, do it, it is a wonderful place.

Anyway, on the way back home we stopped in Meredith, NH to have lunch at Hart’s Turkey Farm (another great place). Now, for those of you not familiar with the NH geography, Meredith is right next to Laconia, which is essentially the center of the Harley universe in New England. Laconia is famous for two things, “Bike Week” and well, “Bike Week”. My sons and I sauntered over to the massive Harley Davidson (HOG) dealership for a stroll and to look at all the bikes. One thing immediately struck me. Evey single bike in the store, almost 100 had the same tag on it “Priced Below MSRP”.

I casually asked a salesperson, “What is going on, why is everything on sale”? He replied “can’t move ’em and the new models are coming out”. HMMMM

When I asked why he though they were not selling he replied that most people had been upgrading the last few years with two things, house money (home equity) or Harley financing which is now getting harder to get and much more expensive. He said that because of this people are either sticking with the bikes they have much longer and those who are buying, are buying cheaper, lower margin bikes. For instance, a bike that was selling for $10,000 last year was being offered below $8,000 yesterday. Both of these are very bad for Harley.

When I asked what would happen if he can’t move the old models when the new ones come out, he said that they will just cut back the new model orders. Even worse for Harley.

Earlier this year when shares were at $70 I recommended waiting until they reached the mid $50’s to buy. Based on my weekend visit, they may go lower still. This is a great company that makes a one of a kind product, but, people are not buying it now and that will hurt. I think we may see share prices in the $40’s before the year is out.

Be patient and you may get a fantastic buy, later…

Here are the late Monday and early Tuesday calls

UPGRADES

Cooper Tire CTB BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Silicon Image SIMG Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
Alliant Energy LNT Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Advanced Semi ASX Citigroup Hold » Buy
Burger King BKC Citigroup Hold » Buy
Pepsi Bottling PBG Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy
Electronic Arts ERTS Davenport Reduce/Sell » Neutral
ACCO Brands ABD Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
Fuel-Tech FTEK Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Marvel Enterprises MVL Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Walter Inds WLT Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
Fiserv FISV DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Captaris CAPA B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Comerica CMA AG Edwards Hold » Buy
National Cinemedia NCMI Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Tesco TESO CapitalOne southcoast Hold » Buy
TheStreet.com TSCM Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy

DOWNGRADES

Luminent Mortgage Capital LUM Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Itron ITRI JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Luminent Mortgage Capital LUM JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Underperform
j2 Global JCOM Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Thornburg Mortg TMA Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Opteum OPX Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
F5 Networks FFIV Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral
CheckFree CKFR DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
XTO Energy XTO Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Exxon Mobil XOM Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Valero Energy VLO Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Tesoro Petroleum TSO Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Sunoco SUN Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Pioneer Natural PXD Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Occidental Petro OXY Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Noble Energy NBL Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Murphy Oil MUR Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Marathon Oil MRO Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Hess HES Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Frontier Oil FTO Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
EOG Resources EOG Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Devon Energy DVN Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Chevron CVX Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Comstock CRK Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
ConocoPhillips COP Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
Cabot Oil & Gas COG Oppenheimer Buy » Neutra

Here are the late Friday and early Monday calls

UPGRADES

TD Ameritrade AMTD UBS Neutral » Buy
Merrill Lynch MER UBS Neutral » Buy
McMoRan Expl MMR JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
PG&E PCG Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Electronic Arts ERTS Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
AnnTaylor ANN DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Insituform Tech INSU Canaccord Adams Sell » Hold
St. Mary Lnd/Expl SM KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Hold » Buy
Gulfmark Offshore GLF CapitalOne southcoast Hold » Buy
Telefonica S.A. TEF Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
OdysseyRe ORH Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Transocean RIG Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Ensco ESV Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Assured Guaranty AGO Calyon Securities Neutral » Buy
AMBAC Fincl ABK Calyon Securities Add » Buy
Amylin Pharms AMLN Cowen & Co Underperform » Neutral

DOWNGRADES

Luminent Mortgage Capital LUM JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
CheckFree CKFR JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Penn Va GP Hldgs PVG RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Independent Bank IBCP RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform IMPAC Mortgage IMH Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Nortel NT Charter Equity Buy » Mkt Perform
Ditech DITC First Albany Buy » Underperform
PNM Resources PNM RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Owens & Minor OMI Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Silicon Image SIMG Longbow Buy » Neutral
Portfolio Recovery Assoc. PRAA First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
Asset Acceptance Capital AACC First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
SPSS Inc SPSS Cowen & Co Neutral » Underperform
Radiation Therapy Services RTSX Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral

Here are the late Tuesday and early Wednesday calls.

UPGRADES

Apple AAPL Citigroup Hold » Buy
RealNetworks RNWK Soleil Sell » Hold
ArvinMeritor ARM UBS Neutral » Buy
Iomai IOMI UBS Neutral » Buy
Atlantic Tele-Network ATNI UBS Neutral » Buy
Apria Healthcare AHG Oppenheimer Sell » Neutral
HSBC Holdings HBC Citigroup Hold » Buy
Westamerica Banc WABC Citigroup Hold » Buy
AGCO Corp AG Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Advanta Corp ADVNB Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Emdeon HLTH Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Fresh Del Monte FDP BB&T Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold
Alliance One AOI Davenport Neutral » Buy
Universal Corp UVV Davenport Neutral » Buy
Plum Creek PCL DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
American Dental ADPI Dougherty & Company Neutral » Buy
ValueClick VCLK Pacific Growth Equities Sell » Neutral
Sensient SXT KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Hold » Buy
Rohm and Haas ROH KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Aggressive Buy
Intl Flavors IFF KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Aggressive Buy
Koppers Holdings KOP KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Aggressive Buy
Heartland Express HTLD Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Centene CNC Matrix Research Buy » Strong Buy
Inverness Medical IMA Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Sun Microsystems SUNW Caris & Company Average » Above Averag

DOWNGRADES

AC Moore ACMR Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
First Marblehead FMD JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
ECI Telecom ECIL Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Maguire Properties MPG Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Community Health CYH Citigroup Buy » Hold
Newcastle Investment NCT Citigroup Buy » Hold
RAIT Invtmt Trust RAS KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Aggressive Buy » Hold
MGIC Investment MTG Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
OSI Pharm OSIP CE Unterberg Towbin Buy » Market Perform
Health Management HMA Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Hot Topic HOTT AG Edwards Hold » Sell
Energy Transfer Equity ETE UBS Neutral » Reduce
West Marine WMAR Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
CV Therapeutics CVTX Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Intevac IVAC Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Simpson Manufacturing SSD Matrix Research Buy » Hold
Goodyear Tire GT Matrix Research Hold » Sell

Here are the late Monday and early Tuesday’s analyst calls

UPGRADES

CH Energy CHG Soleil Sell » Hold
FirstEnergy FE Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Mortons Restaurant Group MRT RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
ABM Industries ABM Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Varian Semi VSEA Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Cameco CCJ CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Darling International Inc DAR Avondale Partners Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Ballard Power BLDP Ardour Capital Reduce » Hold
ValueClick VCLK Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
MTS Systems MTSC Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Gorman-Rupp Company GRC Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Weyerhaeuser WY DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Smurfit-Stone SSCC DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
MicroStrategy MSTR First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Goodrich GR Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperfor

DOWNGRADES

American Reprographics ARP Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Energy Transfer ETP UBS Neutral » Reduce
Unilever PLC UL Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Double Hull Tankers DHT JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Intevac IVAC Piper Jaffray Outperform » Market Perform
RadioShack RSH Citigroup Hold » Sell
Cobra Electronics COBR Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform
Foot Locker FL Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
MC Shipping MCX Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
ValueClick VCLK JMP Securities Strong Buy » Mkt Perform
Symbion SMBI RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
QLogic QLGC Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Chartered Semi CHRT JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Children’s Place PLCE Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral

Here are today’s picks.

Jeff Macke recommended buying Costco (COST),Open $59.09

Pete Najarian likes Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Open $39.43

Guy Adami preferred Dell (DELL) because their PC shipments are up 12% year over year.Open $28.49

Eric Bolling said Goldman Sachs (GS) is a buy, Open $194.77

THURDAY’S RESULTS

Eric Bolling recommended owning MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) Open $57.76 Close $61.06 Gain $2.30

Guy Adami liked Harley-Davidson (HOG). Open $58.66 Close $57.30 Loss $1.33

Pete Najarian preferred Bristol Myers (BMY) Open $31.59 Close $29.85 Loss $1.74

No stock pick from Jeff Macke.

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week))

Adami= 8-7 Gain $25.67
Bolling= 8-7 Loss $1.88
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 15-8 Gain $6.01
Pete Najarian=4-3 Gain $18.41
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68

Here are today’s picks

TODAY’S PICKS

Eric Bolling recommended owning MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) Open $57.76

Guy Adami liked Harley-Davidson (HOG). Open $58.66

Pete Najarian preferred Bristol Myers (BMY) Open $31.59

No stock pick from Jeff Macke.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS

Vodafone (VOD) down over 3% today represented a buying opportunity, Guy Adami says. Open $32.09 Close $32.32 Gain $.13

Pete Najarian liked Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) Open $43.44 Close $43.29 Loss $.15

Jeff Macke reiterated that Costco (COST)is a buy. Open $60.15 Close $60.30 Gain $.15

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week))

Adami= 8-6 Gain $27
Bolling= 7-7 Loss $4.18
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 15-8 Gain $6.01
Pete Najarian=4-2 Gain $20.29
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68

Here are the late Thursday and early Friday calls

UPGRADES:

Del Monte DLM Matrix Research Hold » Buy
Fleetwood FLE BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Fedrl Rlty Inv Trst FRT Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
MRV Comms MRVC Roth Capital Hold » Buy
National Instruments NATI Thomas Weisel Market Weight » Overweight
BJ’s Wholesale BJ Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
AT&T T Davenport Neutral » Buy
Lockheed Martin LMT JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Seagate Tech STX Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Hartford Financial HIG AG Edwards Hold » Buy
BMC Software BMC Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Merck MRK AG Edwards Hold » Buy
Robbins & Myers RBN Matrix Research Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES:

Vimicro VIMC Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Negative
Tenaris TS Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform $50
Charles River CRL Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Thor Industries THO Matrix Research Strong Buy » Sell
Warner Chilcott PLC WCRX Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
US Cellular USM Soleil Hold » Sell
Frontline FRO UBS Neutral » Reduce
BCE Inc BCE Davenport Neutral » Reduce/Sell
Big 5 Sports BGFV DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
PFF Bancorp PFB Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Huntsman HUN BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
China Petroleum (Sinopec) SNP Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Gerdau AmeriSteel GNA RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
XL Capital XL AG Edwards Buy » Hold
Ruby Tuesday RT Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Denbury Resources DNR Calyon Securities Add » Neutral
Delek US Holdings DK HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight
Cubic CUB Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Gerdau AmeriSteel GNA CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform

Here are today’s early analyst calls.

UPGRADES:

National Financial Partners NFP Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight

Regal-Beloit RBC KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Aggressive Buy

Walgreen WAG Matrix Research Buy » Strong Buy

ScanSource SCSC Matrix Research Hold » Buy

Virage Logic VIRL Needham & Co Hold » Buy

ISIS Pharm ISIS Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy

Terex TEX Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Astec Industries ASTE Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Powerwave PWAV Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Central Garden CENT Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy

Silgan Holdings SLGN Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

Quality Systems QSII Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy

Rush Enterprises RUSHA Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

Cummins CMI Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

PACCAR PCAR Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

Xilinx XLNX Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform $30 » $37

Expeditors Intl EXPD Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Harley-Davidson HOG Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Regal-Beloit RBC Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Weatherford WFT JP Morgan Underweight » Neutra

DOWNGRADES:

Komag KOMG Citigroup Buy » Hold

Watsco WSO KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Aggressive Buy » Buy

IMPAC Mortgage IMH Roth Capital Buy » Hold

Hilton Hotels HLT Matrix Research Buy » Hold

Baidu.com BIDU Citigroup Buy » Hold

McDermott MDR Calyon Securities Buy » Add

Commerce Bancorp CBH Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey Buy » Neutral

Tyco TYC Citigroup Hold » Sell

Ensco ESV Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform

Eldorado Gold EGO UBS Buy » Neutral

Allied World Assurance AWH Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

Ball Corp BLL Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

Visicu EICU Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold

Cablevision CVC Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

Here are the late Friday analyst calls:

Komag KOMG Caris & Company Below Average » Average

Apollo Group APOL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform

Western Digital WDC Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy

Heelys HLYS CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform

Phillips-Van Heusen PVH Matrix Research Hold » Buy

Ralcorp Holdings RAH BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy

Diodes DIOD UBS Neutral » Buy

Research In Motion RIMM Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform

Solectron SLR RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Komag KOMG JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral

Ariba ARBA CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Outperform

DOWNGRADES:

Packeteer PKTR JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

Cascade CAE DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform

Omega Protein OME DA Davidson Buy » Neutral

Topps TOPP Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy

Rural/Metro RURL B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral

Guitar Center GTRC Dougherty & Company Buy » Neutral

Ceragon CRNT Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral

Pinnacle West PNW BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform

Getty Images GYI Matrix Research Hold » Sell

Barnes & Noble BKS Matrix Research Buy » Hold

Endurance Specialty ENH Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold

Castle Brands ROX Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral

Corn Products CPO BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

Another update of a past post. In early February I wrote about shares of Harley Davidson (HOG), “Don’t Reach for the Bacon Just Yet“.

Again, please read the initial post as this one will reference it and it will make a whole lot more sense if you do. In that post I advised NOT buying shares at their then $70 a share levels and waiting until shares dropped to $60 (they sit at $61 currently). There were a couple of factor I alluded to that I though would drive the price down but would not have any long term negative effect on the company. Let’s update those and see where we are at now.

The Strike:

In February:
“For the first time in history Harley has a strike at its production facility in York, PA. This plant makes Harley’s most profitable bikes. Now even though Harley says there should be no long term effect, there will be an effect now and this year (the longer the strike, the larger the effect).”

The strike turned out to me a non-event. It ‘s duration was about 3 weeks and workers and management played nice in the end. It caused a drop in Q1 earnings and shipments but even that was less that expected.

Credit

In February: ” Harley has been selling more and more self financed motorcycles recently through Harley Davidson Finance (this is no different that any other retailer offering you “a credit card” at the checkout). The number of bikes sold this way has gone from 21% to about 48% in the past 6 years. There is concern that more of these loans may be of questionable credit. This could cause losses or decreased earnings at this division which would negatively effect earnings as a whole.”

It would appear that credit tightening in all markets is affecting Harley. Not significantly enough to cause real serious concern, but enough to cause people to dial back their expectations for next year. A recent survey of dealerships showed significant pricing below Harley suggested prices on bikes. This is being done to clear dealer floor before new models come out. Now, if these bikes cannot be moved, then orders to Harley will drop and earnings are going to be negatively affected.

Consumer credit is the main issue with Harley now. Since “easy money” is not so “easy” anymore, there is a certain segment of potential Harley buyers out there who will not be able to get financing to either buy their first bike or, more significantly upgrade to a bigger, more expensive one.

What To Do?

Recently share jumped as rumors swirled that Honda Motors (HMC) would make a bid for Harley. Days later Honda denied the rumor. This illustrates the effect of rumors and how people react to them before they really think about it. I am going to say that shareholders, management and those who work at Harley would rather lay their genitals on a hot tailpipe than see their company sold to the Japanese. This is not to say they have anything against the Japanese but Harley is America through and through and nothing will ever change that. The executive that blessed the transition of Harley from US to foreign ownership would probably spend the remainder of their life “looking over their shoulder” and would have Sammy “The Bull” Gravano saying “thank God I am not that guy”. Let’s just put this one to bed.

Now, does that mean Harley will not be bought out? No, it just means it will not be Honda. It’s valuation is becoming compelling and once this current credit squeeze shakes itself out, shares resume their perpetual upward climb. It would make sense for one of the US auto makers like Ford (F) or GM (GM) to try to pick it up, at least then they would have a profitable division but admittedly the chance of that happening is very slim, if not non-existent.

Buy now? I am going to say no… I think the current credit situation will last a while and next years earning will be be negatively affected. If you are a value investor looking to buy shares , this is good news as the share price will fall more from here. Harley has yet to reduce earnings estimate and when they do (they will) share get hit, hard.

From their current $61 level I would wait for another 10% fall the $54 to $55 and then jump in. Again, this assume no dramatic news event, just the event we anticipate here.

Harley is a great company that is in the midst of a stumble, not a fall, and that may give us value folks a golden opportunity to pick up cheap shares.