This is a great video in which Whitney talks about investing ideas based on filings. Topics include Ackman, Target (TGT), Lampert, Icahn and others..
(BAMM)- Books-A-Million Inc
(BELM)- Bell Microproducts Inc
(BLD)- Baldwin Technology Co …
(BRCM)- Broadcom Corp
(BTRX)- Barrier Therapeutics Inc
(BX )- Blackstone Group L P
(CTAS)- Cintas Corporation
(CYBX)- Cyberonics Inc
(DLM)- Del Monte Foods Co
(IACI)- Iac Interactivecorp
(IAR)- Idearc Inc
(LPX)- Louisiana Pac Corp
(LVLT)- Level 3 Communication …
(MS)- Morgan Stanley
(MVCO)- Meadow Valley Corporation
(N)- Netsuite Inc
Spam, Krugman, Short Sellers, Citi
– After all these years, still a money maker..
– How does Paul Krugman have a job? Read this piece. We have been reading and hearing the same thing for 4 months now…. Just catching on Paul?
– Kass has a point, Stein has blamed everyone but the guilty parties, the companies themselves.
– Chad Brand looks at Citigroup’s (C) segments
Best Buy (BBY) came out and reduced FY earnings and the news sent the stock down over 3% Friday. Knowing Best Buy is well run and Circuit City (CC) is not, investors sent City shares down twice that.
For the fiscal year ending March 1, Best Buy reduced its outlook to per-share earnings of $3.05 to $3.10 from $3.10 to $3.20. Expected same-store sales growth was cut to 2.5% to 3% from 4%, and the company maintained its outlook for revenue of about $40 billion.
CEO Brad Anderson said that although the company’s December results were in line with expectations, “soft domestic customer traffic in January, coupled with our near-term outlook, now indicate that our fourth-quarter revenue will fall short of our planned targets.”
Circuit City has said nothing specific about upcoming numbers (assume the worst) but did do something noteworthy.
After Best Buy, Wal-Mart (WMT) and NetFlix (NFLX) announced they will go exclusively with the “Blue-ray” HD DVD format, Circuit City, apparently the last one in the loop was forced to price cut a stand-alone HD player that plays both Sony Corp.’s Blu-ray disc and Toshiba Corp.’s HD DVD format titles by $100.
I can’t wait to hear CEO Schoonover’s excuse for the latest quarter. Maybe, “Perhaps were overly optimistic about a cash strapped consumers willingness to buy soon to be irrelevant technology”.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None
LeapFrog (LF) has new products rolling out this summer that are the best the company has had in its history.
1- “The Crammer”: A replacement for handwritten index cards. It allowing you to enter data for each side of virtual “cards” and run through them on the 2.5-inch screen. Study aids various subjects are available for download.
2- “The Tag”: A handheld that works with Tag-enabled books to create an independent and interactive reading experience for children. By touching the Tag reader anywhere on any page of a Tag book, children can bring their favorite stories to life, easily skipping from page to page or book to book.
3- “Learning Path”: A free online tool at leapfrog.com that interfaces with LeapFrog products to show parents what their child is learning and how their activities or games map back to the Scope and Sequence of educational skills that the Company has always built into every product.
LeapFrog lost its way 2 years ago as its products rapidly became outdated in a handheld and online world. This latest line of products has taken them back to the head of the pack.
Rather than thinking like a “children’s toy” company, LF seems to have changed that and is now a “educational technology” one. With that change has come the innovative thinking that is clearly evident in the new product line.
Here is a very good review of the new line from someone who has actually played with them.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long LeapFrog
Upgrades
CoStar Group (CSGP)- Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Peet’s Coffee (PEET)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO)- Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
Cognex (CGNX)- Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Safeway (SWY)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Alon USA Energy (ALJ)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Sprint Nextel (S )- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Patterson-UTI (PTEN)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Aquila (ILA)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Senior Housing (SNH)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Weight Watchers (WTW)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Centurytel (CTL)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
CoStar Group (CSGP)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Viacom VIA.B (UBS)- Neutral » Buy
Bioscrip (BIOS)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Fluor FLR (UBS)- Neutral » Buy
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG )- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Expeditors Intl (EXPD)- McAdams,Wright,Ragen Hold » Buy
Downgrades
Builders Firstsource (BLDR)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Kona Grill (KONA)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Ramtron (RMTR)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Rodman & Renshaw (RODM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Sell
Cowen Group (COWN)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell
Thomas Weisel (TWPG)- Sterne Agee Buy » Sell
Jefferies Group (JEF)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell
HRPT Properties (HRP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Sell
Macrovision (MVSN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
American Medical (AMMD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Advance America Cash (AEA)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
LCA Vision (LCAV)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Alexion Pharm (ALXN)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Sovran Self Storage (SSS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Syngenta (SYT)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
Whole Foods (WFMI)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
TorreyPines Therapeutics (TPTX)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Rent toys, Tech work at home, Financial directors, Old Crooks
– Isn’t it true that some of the best ideas seem in retrospect to be the most obvious?
– Let’s see if my mom reads my blog….
– Has anyone else got a call back from one of them?
– This is interesting…
The latest estimates have “unlocked” iPhones costing Apple over $1 billion in lost revenue the next 3 years.
Apple’s (AAPL) AT&T (T) tie-up in the US is for another 4 years meaning the company will continue to not realize monthly revenue, estimated at $120 annually per subscriber from phones “unlocked” for use on other carriers.
Aside from the lost revenue aspect, one can only guess at the numbers of phone that have not been sold to people not willing to switch cell phone carriers to AT&T. Apple has stood by its “10 million phones sold by the end of 2008” goal but recent news that they have dramatically cut back on component orders can only mean sales growth has slowed.
I did a post in May of last year that said AT&T would be the big winner of the iPhone deal and to date they have been. What Apple did was delay sales of its product and allow other handset makers and carriers to come out with competing products. Now, Apple fans will say the offering from Verizon (VZ) and sprint (S) are nowhere near the quality of Apple’s and that may be true.
What is true is that they have given their consumers an option the Apple to stem the urge to switch. When you also consider we have not seen what Research in Motion (RIMM), the Blackberry maker and clear “smart phone” leader has planned, Apple may face even more headwinds. When you can buy a Blackberry from every cell phone provider in existence, sales of the products ought to continue to outpace the iPhone.
None of this even takes into account the specter of Google’s (GOOG) gPhone expected later this year.
Apple had a chance to “bum rush” the industry with its product and could have caught all the other handset makers and carriers by surprise. Whether it was greed, control issues or hubris, Jobs instead backhanded the industry with his rhetoric and attitude towards it.
Instead of having a product all carriers were glad to carry and sell, he created an atmosphere in which they embarked on a quest to compete directly with him and his product.
The handset game is hard enough without intentionally making enemies of its participants, Jobs has done this. I think Apple devotees may find themselves in the future wondering “what could have been” if only Jobs had not started out this process so adversarially.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Sold Apple July $280 calls when stock at $165 in January, none in others
Wal-Mart (WMT) reports tomorrow and other than the results, there are a host of other questions begging for answers.
First the numbers:
Estimates are for a profit of $1.02 on revenue of $106.91B. On February 7, Wal-Mart reported disappointing January same store sales and forecast its February same store sales to be flat to up 2% (virtually the same # they have forecast every month the past year). It also gave Q4 guidance, forecasting EPS between 99c and $1.03. For fiscal 2009 ending January estimates are $3.43 EPS on $405.81 billion in revenues.
What we want to know:
1- How many share did the company repurchase? After buying $2.7 billion last quarter, anything less than $2.5 billion in this one would be disappointing.
2- International: We just got news about Mexico’s expansion, anything else?
3- Marketside: We have a logo, what is the plan?
4- Jones Apparel: l.e.i brand clothing. Details?
5- The dividend: Was raised for Q1 last year from 17 to 22 cents a share. Can we go to 27 this year?
Chances are we will not get many details before the annual meeting this summer. One can hope though. I would expect Wal-Mart to hit the high end of expectations or just surpass them. Monthly sales figures from the chains suggest people are forgoing a trip to Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) in favor of Wal-Mart.
The new “Save More, Live Better” campaign is a winner and they beat every retailer to the punch when it came to the Christmas season and getting people ready to spend their upcoming “rebates” from the gov’t. Both of these serve to put Wal-Mart at the “top of mind” of consumers when it comes to shopping.
When it comes to full year 2009 forecast, I would expect Wal-Mart to give a very broad earnings range if they provide it at all given the current uncertainty in macro conditions.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, none
ConocoPhillips-(COP)= 14.6%
Cooper Industries A-(CBE) = 19.0%
Genco Shipping & Trading-(GNK) = 28.8%
HNI Corp-(HNI)= 10.3%
Heartland Payment System-(HPY)= 20.0%
Honeywell Int’l-(HON)= 10.0%
IPC Hldgs Ltd-(IPCR)= 10.0%
ITT Corp-(ITT) = 25.0%
Wolverine World Wide-(WWW) = 22.2%
EnCana Corp-(ECA) = 100.0%
CF Industries Holdings-(CF)= 400.0%
National Research Corp-(NRCI) = 16.7%
Robert Half Int’l-(RHI) = 10.0%
Rockville Fin’l-(RCKB)= 25.0%
Mcmoran Exploration Co (MMR)= $ 8,083,000
Celadon Group Inc (CLDN) = $3,831,000
Jk Acquisition Corp (JKA) = $3,459,000
Amicus Therapeutics Inc (FOLD)=$ 3,169,000
Emerson Electric Co (EMR) = $2,108,000
Wachovia Corp New (WB)=$ 1,832,000
Rofin Sinar Technologies Inc (RSTI) =$1,648,000
Unifi Inc (UFI)=$1,564,000
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO)=$1,312,000
Tri Valley Corp (TIV) = $1,020,000
Valence Technology Inc (VLNC)=$1,000,000
Zenith National Insurance Corp (ZNT) = $978,000
Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News
Although Sherwin has performed well, the market hasn’t rewarded it – and here’s why that troublesome trend is going to continue.
Business Wire Canada Opening Reception: A Conversation with Warren Buffett
Excerpt: “Noven Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: NOVN) recently made significant changes to its board of directors and senior management. The company hired a new CFO, accepted the resignation of its long time Chairman and CEO Robert C. Strauss, and appointed Wayne P. Yetter as its new Chairman. We applaud these actions and believe a tremendous amount of value will come from the changes.”
Some poor choices under Greenblatt’s Magic Formula screen. Lists some criteria for determining a good Magic Formula stock from a bad one.
According to Benjamin Graham (1894-1976), investors should make market fluctuations their friends, rather than get carried away by the market sentiment. Investors should not try to time the market, as the stock market movement is always unpredictable. In this article, we will look into some key elements of Graham’s investing philosophy.
Value investing may be rewarding in the long term, but can be painful in the short term. Can that be avoided? And is now the wrong time for value?
It looks like Berkshire Hathaway added Kraft, Trane, Sanofi Aventis, and more.
Crafty Buffett submits an SEC filing on Valentine’s Day announcing his love for Kraft.
At under 8 P/E and 17% earnings yield, the largest egg producer in the U.S. looks like a bargain. But what lies beneath the shell that makes this a risky stock?
A quick search on Amazon.com for the term “Value Investing” turned up 2,970 books. At the top of the list, the usual suspects appear:
The maverick hedge fund manager delegates and controls stock selection.
Despite near term challenges related to concerns over it’s blockbuster anemia drugs, Amgen’s huge R&D budget, deep pipeline, and the bright outlook for biotechnology make it an attractive buy for any portfolio.
Investment guru Warren Buffet had once said: “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” As bears refuse to give up the grip on markets, investors are resorting to value investing. Value investing essentially means buying companies whose stock prices appear cheap when viewed against its fundamental intrinsic value.
Fortune asked 13 money managers about the current downturn, and what they’re buying (or not buying) now. Including : John Neff , Leon Cooperman, Michael Steinhardt, Whitney Tilson …etc.
The hate e-mail can stop!! This blog has been investing real money in the magic formula for over 2 years. 2007’s results and results since inception are now posted!
In part two of the chat, Curtis Jensen, Third Avenue Management’s co-chief investment officer, talks the fund firm’s focus on analyzing the balance sheet, as well as a couple of financial stocks that have recently been in the news.
“What you have is a collection of brands and assets”.. Whitney Tilson
After great reviews, many in the value investing forum requested a second interview with William Spetrino Jr. The people requested it and we have delivered.
After an interview with the Financial Post, Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., yesterday answered questions from some of Bay Street’s top investor relations professionals. He shared more on his views on the markets, politics and the economy.
Whitney Tilson on retailers, Sears Holdings, C …
Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Edward Lampert bough an additional 631,000 shares of AutoNation (AN) for his hedge fund ESL Investments on Wednesday, 2/13 at prices between $15.40 and $15.55 a share.
He now controls 60,494,479 shares or 33.5% of the total.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None
(XRIT)- X-Rite Incorporated
(WZEN )- Webzen Inc
(WPL )- W.P. Stewart & Co. Ltd.
(WMK )- Weis Markets, Inc
(WGOV )- Woodward Governor Company
(SLE )- Sara Lee Corporation
(SABA )- Saba Software Inc
(RODM)- Rodman & Renshaw Cap …
(RBS )- Royal Bk Scotland Gro …
(HLX )- Helix Energy Solution …
(GTN )- Gray Television Inc
(GCI )- Gannett Co., Inc
(FCS )- Fairchild Semiconduct
(CTAS )- Cintas Corporation
(COWN )- Cowen Group Inc
(CLMS )- Calamos Asset Mgmt Inc
(CCZ )- Comcast Holdings Corp
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
In an SEC filing moments ago, Leucadia (LUK) disclosed it ups its stale in Amercredit (ACF) to 25%.
From the filing:
“As of the close of business on February 14, 2008, the Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own collectively an aggregate of 28,661,440 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 25.0% of the shares of Common Stock presently outstanding. All percentages in this Item 5 are based on 114,599,921 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of January 31, 2008, as set forth in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2007. The Leucadia Reporting Persons and the Ramius Reporting Persons each expressly disclaims beneficial ownership for all purposes of the Common Stock held by the other Reporting Person. The foregoing does not include any shares that are subject to the exchange-traded put options reported in Item 6 of the Original Schedule.”
Leucadia purchased an additional 3,073,664 shares at $13 each on Feb. 13th and 14th.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None